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By The Outsider at 05/24/2010 - 22:19
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There don't seem to be many credible accounts and demographic data of India and Pakistan after partition and it's associated mass migration was over, at least readily available ones on the web. Curious on the topic, the blog presents some digging into of research and news articles from that time to piece together some of the scattered information.
According to the 1941 census, the total population of unified India was 389.0 million. Muslim population was pegged at 94.5 million(24.3%). Hindu population was 270.2 million(69.5%).
The basis of partition was concentrated areas of Muslim population, primarily in North West India and East India. Out of 435 districts in India, there were 76 with Muslim majority population and contained around 60% of the total Muslim population of India. These two clusters ultimately formed Pakistan. The two clusters which formed Pakistan did not contain any Hindu majority districts. There were some residual Muslim majority districts which formed part of India like Kashmir and Kapurthala.
Taking the 1941 census baseline, Pakistan was awarded areas which included 53.8 million Muslims or 57% of the total Muslim population. However, these regions awarded to Pakistan also contained 16.3 million non Muslims forming 23.3% of the region which became Pakistan. The only way to reconcile the notion of Pakistan being a religiously homogeneous state would need a mass migration of populations never before seen in history. 20 million non Muslims and Muslims would have to be exchanged between India and Pakistan resulting in 40 million people migrating.
The immediate aftermath of partition was not quite as dramatic as 40 million people exchanging places, but estimates suggest 6 million Muslims entered West Pakistan and 5 million non Muslims left it till 1949, when the first and most violent wave of migration was over. The numbers on the Eastern border were lower, with an estimated 1 million crossings either way.
By extrapolating the numbers from the 1941 census to 1949, it can be reliably said that in 1949 when the first, largest, and most violent migrations were over the demographics of India and Pakistan were as follows :
India estimated demographics in 1949 - Total population : 355.2 million. Muslims : 10.9%
Pakistan estimated demographics in 1949 - Total population : 79.5 million. Muslims : 84.6%
Another question to address is the distribution of Muslims and non Muslims across East and West Pakistan before and after partition.
According to the 1941 census, the region which became East Pakistan had a total population of 41.9 million and West Pakistan a population of 28.2 million. In East Pakistan the percentage of non Muslim population before partition was 27.9% numbering 11.7 million. West Pakistan had 19.9% non Muslims totaling 5.6 million.
Extrapolating to 1949, gives 13.1 million and 6.3 million non Muslims in East and West Pakistan respectively if there was no mass migration.
It is a reasonable estimate to say that after the first wave of mass migration till 1949, the percentage of non Muslim population in :
1. West Pakistan : 4.0% of a total population of 32.6 million were non Muslims in 1949
2. East Pakistan : 25.8% of a total population of 46.9 million were non Muslims in 1949
Migration of non Muslims continued till quite late from East Pakistan in particular, over the next decade which created more demographic shifts. I'll write about these and few more details in a later blog.
References :
1. India and Pakistan: The Demography of Partition
Author(s): Kingsley Davis
Source: Pacific Affairs, Vol. 22, No. 3 (Sep., 1949), pp. 254-264
2. The Distribution of Religious Communities in India
Author(s): John E. Brush
Source: Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Vol. 39, No. 2 (Jun., 1949), pp. 81
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3. The Partition of the Punjab and of Bengal
Author(s): O. H. K. Spate
Source: The Geographical Journal, Vol. 110, No. 4/6 (Oct. - Dec., 1947), pp. 201-218
4. The Partition of India and the Prospects of Pakistan
Author(s): O. H. K. Spate
Source: Geographical Review, Vol. 38, No. 1 (Jan., 1948), pp. 5-29
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