Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
BeautifulGame

The economy is on a downward spiral, is poised for a hard landing. Many in the BJP know it but do not say it out of fear - YASHWANT SINHA

Recommended Posts

 

I shall be failing in my national duty if I did not speak up even now against the mess the finance minister has made of the economy. I am also convinced that what I am going to say reflects the sentiments of a large number of people in the BJP and elsewhere who are not speaking up out of fear.

 

So, what is the picture of the Indian economy today? Private investment has shrunk as never before in two decades, industrial production has all but collapsed, agriculture is in distress, construction industry, a big employer of the work force, is in the doldrums, the rest of the service sector is also in the slow lane, exports have dwindled, sector after sector of the economy is in distress, demonetisation has proved to be an unmitigated economic disaster, a badly conceived and poorly implemented GST has played havoc with businesses and sunk many of them and countless millions have lost their jobs with hardly any new opportunities coming the way of the new entrants to the labour market. 

 

 

And please note that the methodology for calculation of the GDP was changed by the present government in 2015 as a result of which the growth rate recorded earlier increased statistically by over 200 basis points on an annual basis. So, according to the old method of calculation, the growth rate of 5.7 per cent is actually 3.7 per cent or less.

 

The prime minister claims that he has seen poverty from close quarters. His finance minister is working over-time to make sure that all Indians also see it from equally close quarters

 

 

http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/yashwant-sinha-arun-jaitley-gst-demonetisation-narendra-modi-economy-bjp-i-need-to-speak-up-now-4862716/

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, mishra said:

House prices not rising is clear sign of stagnant economy or cash sucked off Indian economy.

Thats a good thing. Proves, govt's efforts against black money are paying off. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, surajmal said:

Thats a good thing. Proves, govt's efforts against black money are paying off. 

Yes, There is a genuine fear now while accepting big cash deals.

At the same time there are employers who are forced to open accounts for employees , pay in that account and then withdraw to pay the wages in cash as employee cant deal with banks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

lol at Sinha giving interviews to krantikari channel, boxing champion and pakistan's state channel in one day. Lutyens isn't even being subtle anymore. Which means, 2019 will be a death blow to their cabal. All hail. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As far as the economy goes, there is not going to be any "hard landing". 

 

Indian forex reserves are at a record high and growing rapidly. Push comes to shove there will be a stimulus.

 

But ultimately the GST is a much needed reform. Its a medicine.

 

The analyst who predicted India growing at 5.7% last quarter has said he expects India to resume growth at 8% in the October November December quarter this year.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, surajmal said:

Thats a good thing. Proves, govt's efforts against black money are paying off. 

House prices were peaked in 2012 then they declined for 2-3 years and now they have stagnated.

 

One of the reason is house prices are not rising because builders had already constructed too many houses.the golden period of property investment was from late 60 s to 2000 when price of property went 1000s of time , This had impact on so many young people who thought their investment too will jump 100 s of time , so this bubble had to burst

 

As far black money is concerned I challenge anyone to accompany me to local markets of Delhi NCR , most shopkeepers are still selling cheapest products in cash , They have completely stopped accepting debit credit cards without GST

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, Singh bling said:

House prices were peaked in 2012 then they declined for 2-3 years and now they have stagnated.

 

One of the reason is house prices are not rising because builders had already constructed too many houses.the golden period of property investment was from late 60 s to 2000 when price of property went 1000s of time , This had impact on so many young people who thought their investment too will jump 100 s of time , so this bubble had to burst

 

As far black money is concerned I challenge anyone to accompany me to local markets of Delhi NCR , most shopkeepers are still selling cheapest products in cash , They have completely stopped accepting debit credit cards without GST

See there are people who do that and there are many who don't .Not everyone is going to change overnight ,but many have and many will in future as well .You cannot have everything overnight .

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

China GDP per capita $8000. Growth rate 7%. GDP per capita increase $560

 

Ind GDP per capita $1700. To add $560 per capita (same as China), it needs to grow at roughly 33% 

 

5% growth adds $85 per capita. 8% growth adds $130 odd per capita :yawn:

 

Switzerland's GDP per capita is approx. $80000. Even if it grows at 1%, it would add $800 per capita

 

 

Edited by zen

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Stuge said:

See there are people who do that and there are many who don't .Not everyone is going to change overnight ,but many have and many will in future as well .You cannot have everything overnight .

 

 

You need a proper system for change 

. Unfortunately this Modi Govt hardly did anything in Ease of doing business (EODB) Yet they unleashed so called reforms which were back breaking for small businesses and informal sector which are giving employment to most of people 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Singh bling said:

You need a proper system for change 

. Unfortunately this Modi Govt hardly did anything in Ease of doing business (EODB) Yet they unleashed so called reforms which were back breaking for small businesses and informal sector which are giving employment to most of people 

 

 

 

Thats BJP's vote base. You are saying that Namo and company are stupid enough to destroy their votebank? You should be celebrating then, not crying in every thread. Namo is one and done... Go pour yourself a drink. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
can we actually see some facts ? how is the economy growing and i dont want the Modi Govt figures.

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/understanding-the-slowdown/article19694073.ece

 

Exports stagnating

 

http://wap.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/share-of-exports-in-gdp-at-14-year-low-of-19-4-117092500965_1.html

 

 

Inflation rising up again

 

http://m.timesofindia.com/business/india-business/retail-inflation-in-august-shoots-up-by-3-36-highest-in-five-months/articleshow/60478331.cms

 

Petrol price reaching unprecedented levels

 

http://m.hindustantimes.com/business-news/petrol-prices-hiked-rs-79-per-litre-in-mumbai-at-highest-since-august-2014/story-K1nXE29mK6ect6o4PANNoN.html

 

Job creation projections nowhere near as projected. Infact at an eight year low

 

http://businessworld.in/article/-NoJobs-In-India-PM-s-Promise-Of-1-Crore-Jobs-Annually-Far-From-Reality/20-09-2017-126601/

 

Govt planning to inject 65k crore to stimulate economic growth because slipped to a three-year low of 5.7 percent in the quarter ending June.Which in turn will cut into fiscal dificit.

 

http://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/finance/india-considering-7-7-billion-stimulus-spending-in-2017/18-government-sources/articleshow/60780738.cms

 

Also that 5.7 % is after the adjusted stats of GDP growth model .With the old figures the GDP figures are at 3-4% acc to Sinha.

 

 

And Telecom sector is the new sector under Stress and in danger of becoming NPA and to prevent that Govt is planning to bail them out.

 

http://www.livemint.com/Industry/tAgwcBSFOR3bn5T6focq4L/Ministers-panel-starts-hearing-case-for-bailing-out-debtla.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, surajmal said:

Thats BJP's vote base. You are saying that Namo and company are stupid enough to destroy their votebank? You should be celebrating then, not crying in every thread. Namo is one and done... Go pour yourself a drink. 

What was Congress's vote bank.What they did to them? The reforms in India were initiated by Rao Manmohan Govt and that did not survive more than one.

 

Useless commies ruled Bengal for 34 and 1 progressive CM Budhadev bhatacharya came and they got booted out . Development in India hardly gets you vote

 

Anyway I don't see Modi going because we have become country with no opposition.This Sunday Municipal elections were held in Gurgaon and out of 35 seats BJP got 13 , 21 independents got elected.AAP and Congress did not fight election and BJP easily got mayor's post. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^ Paaji! Super econimist MMS left Indian economy effectively in a sick state with inflation extremely high and rupee loosing value every day. Also opening up of Indian economy was a remedy subscribed by IMF as India was not far from defaulting loan repayments. So be honest with facts. We were not far from Pakistan.

 

Now back to current stateof affairs. Indications are that Informal/black economy in India has been curbed, if not come to a halt. Refer various previous posts by others on tbis thread as to why i say this.

 

so its not all that bad. Indian economy has been made to swallow shock pill of transperency. Its after effect of all that. Most people know that, But they want Modi government to ged rid off the shock as soon as possible as expectation is to have a formal economic growth rate of around 8-9%.

 

 

Edited by mishra

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, mishra said:

^ Paaji! Super econimist MMS left Indian economy effectively in a sick state with inflation extremely high and rupee loosing value every day. Also opening up of Indian economy was a remedy subscribed by IMF as India was not far from defaulting loan repayments. So be honest with facts. We were not far from Pakistan.

 

Now back to current stateof affairs. Indications are that Informal/black economy in India has been curbed, if not come to a halt. Refer various previous posts by others on tbis thread as to why i say this.

 

so its not all that bad. Indian economy has been made to swallow shock pill of transperency. Its after effect of all that. Most people know that, But they want Modi government to ged rid off the shock as soon as possible as expectation is to have a formal economic growth rate of around 8-9%.

 

 

From 2011-14 the world economy was in bad shape , 2014 - 17 world economy improved .And who told you blac money is curbed.

 

1)

Has Govt officials stopped taking bribe?

2)is there any jump in EODB( ease of doingg business)

 

Go to buy property and still you need to pay in white and black

 

From past 6 months I am doing renovation and I had seen so many depressed shopkeepers , Labour rate at present is going downward and you people are just saying same thing , just wait future is great 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Singh bling said:

From 2011-14 the world economy was in bad shape , 2014 - 17 world economy improved .And who told you blac money is curbed.

 

1)

Has Govt officials stopped taking bribe?

2)is there any jump in EODB( ease of doingg business)

 

Consult a dictionary. 

 

 

Quote

Go to buy property and still you need to pay in white and black

Too much hassle now. 

 

Quote

 

From past 6 months I am doing renovation and I had seen so many depressed shopkeepers , Labour rate at present is going downward and you people are just saying same thing , just wait future is great 

 

If reforms were easy, every country third world crapper would be industrializing. 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, surajmal said:

Consult a dictionary. 

 

 

Too much hassle now. 

 

If reforms were easy, every country third world crapper would be industrializing. 

 

 

Stop giving name of economic stupidies as reforms.Economists are very much clear on this that India needs big labour law reforms , other Ease of doing business reforms

 

Here is article supporting Modi but still it accepted that

Once DeMo or GST were brought in, MSMEs lost their tax-arbitrage-driven USP. The only way to fix this was to raise their efficiency —that requires big reforms in labour rules, tax policies … what are called ease-of-doing-business (EoDB) rules

Modi’s failure is that he felt EoDB had been fixed and was unwilling to accept any criticism of this. 

http://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/by-following-up-demonetisation-with-gst-did-pm-narendra-modi-kill-the-economy-here-is-what-you-really-must-know/867027/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Singh bling said:

Stop giving name of economic stupidies as reforms.Economists are very much clear on this that India needs big labour law reforms , other Ease of doing business reforms

 

Here is article supporting Modi but still it accepted that

Once DeMo or GST were brought in, MSMEs lost their tax-arbitrage-driven USP. The only way to fix this was to raise their efficiency —that requires big reforms in labour rules, tax policies … what are called ease-of-doing-business (EoDB) rules

Modi’s failure is that he felt EoDB had been fixed and was unwilling to accept any criticism of this. 

http://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/by-following-up-demonetisation-with-gst-did-pm-narendra-modi-kill-the-economy-here-is-what-you-really-must-know/867027/

If opposition hadn't scuttled the land reform bill (labour reform was the next big one in the pipeline, which got postponed as a result), Things would have been moving much more smoothly now. 

Blame the opposition. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/29/2017 at 3:37 AM, zen said:

China GDP per capita $8000. Growth rate 7%. GDP per capita increase $560

 

Ind GDP per capita $1700. To add $560 per capita (same as China), it needs to grow at roughly 33% 

 

5% growth adds $85 per capita. 8% growth adds $130 odd per capita :yawn:

 

Switzerland's GDP per capita is approx. $80000. Even if it grows at 1%, it would add $800 per capita

 

 

China is a monster(in terms of growth). I dont think there has been any country in history which has such a huge population and yet grown as rapidly as China and managed to lift standard of living of majority of its population within such a short time. Hats off to Chinese leaders(and Chinese people in general) for pulling off this miracle.

Edited by kubrickian

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 28/09/2017 at 3:53 AM, cowboysfan said:

can we actually see some facts ? how is the economy growing and i dont want the Modi Govt figures.

Car sales, 2 wheeler sales, e-commerce sales, smartphones sales , tax collections - everything is growing very strongly. Very easy to verify as well.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, randomGuy said:

Car sales, 2 wheeler sales, e-commerce sales, smartphones sales , tax collections - everything is growing very strongly. Very easy to verify as well.

 

 

 

Even if this were true, its valid for a small percentage of India's population. Majority of India still lives in villages and small towns(whose voices dont get heard because they dont have education or access to social media) and they will have a different story to tell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, kubrickian said:

Even if this were true, its valid for a small percentage of India's population. Majority of India still lives in villages and small towns(whose voices dont get heard because they dont have education or access to social media) and they will have a different story to tell.

Everything except cars sells in small town n villages as well...for ex. For a population of 125 cr and taking avg. family size of 5 people, taking 1 two-wheeler per family every 15 yrs (let's say 15 yrs is the life of a 2 wheeler)....How many 2 wheeler would be sold per year? 125/(5*15) = 1.67 crore every year.... Guess what...Already more 2 wheelers are being sold every year in india

Edited by randomGuy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Recent consumer numbers suggest the worst is behind us. Ofcourse, the wailing on economy will continue until gujarat elections are over (since secular/intolerance/beef chutiyapa would have got not play)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/1/2017 at 2:51 PM, surajmal said:

If opposition hadn't scuttled the land reform bill (labour reform was the next big one in the pipeline, which got postponed as a result), Things would have been moving much more smoothly now. 

Blame the opposition. 

BJP too opposed GST when they were in opposition,Several other reforms were opposed .This is democracy , opposition always oppose for the sake of opposition

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Singh bling said:

BJP too opposed GST when they were in opposition,Several other reforms were opposed .This is democracy , opposition always oppose for the sake of opposition

BJP had a reason to oppose. BJP came into power and sorted out those issues. Tell me why even congress-led states also opposed GST at that time and they agreed once BJP brought a reformed version?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Manufacturing PMI 51.2

 

second month of expansion....Positive news. Lets wait for the services PMI.

 

As i said, expect economy to get back to firing on all cylinders in the October-November-December quarter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

Sign in to follow this  

Guest, sign in to access all features.

×