China is Indias biggest enemy. They are doing everything possible to harm and undermine India

[narenpande1]

1) Propping up Pak with weapons and texchnology to wage a proxy war against India.

2) Being the only country that is denying India entry to the NSG and voting in favor of  Pak based terrorists groups. They also stand out as the only UN permanent 5 member that is against India gaining entry to that exclusive veto power club ( and ironically it was India under Nehru that gave them the seat originally offered to India )

3) denying india downstream hydrological data - over 200 Indians died last year due to flooding.

4) Funding Maoist’s to wreck havoc in India’s north east

5) trying to seize strategic land from Bhutan so as to try pressure india at a choke point that connects North east indja to the rest of india  - the siliguri corridor.

6) deliberately charting a CPEC path across Pak occupied Kashmir to bolster Paks claim and needle India

 

This is an ENEMY country - if ever there was one. The biggest of them all.

 

CHINA KNOWS - that at turn of 2050 India will be the supreme and indisputable leader in Asia for the next 100 years,as China ages and India peaks. China will do everything possible to deny India a situation where it is the. boss in Asia

 

This is a rogue gangster country that claims an entire water body ( South China Sea ) as its ancestral property - yeah right, India can claim the entire Indian Ocean.

 

Anyone who works on Wall st would tell you that Chinese economy is living on borrowed timed at 300 % debt to GDP. They are struggling to export their enormous industry overcapacity - hence the facade of belt and road initiative. It is not a matter of if but when - that the Chinese economy will enter a recession the likes of which we may not see for a long time. No country in living memory has a asset bubble quite like Chinese real estate.

 

To divert attention from this, this thug country will be itching to wage a war - be it usurping Taiwan militarily, building More sand bars in the South China Sea or playing mischief in Arunachal.

 

India must be on guard to deal a bloody nose to this rogue country. 

 

Accelerate weapons acquisition and build a massive stockpile of ballistic and cruise missiles.

Edited January 28, 2018 by narenpande1

[randomGuy]

Stagnating economy plus extreme gender ratio (1.2 males for every female in young population). 

 

No one will tell you what I am telling, the biggest reason (indirect)  for any future war involving China would be the frustration among men. 200 Chinese men out of every 1200 simply can't get married due to lack of women.  

[zen]

6 hours ago, randomGuy said:

Stagnating economy plus extreme gender ratio (1.2 males for every female in young population). 

 

No one will tell you what I am telling, the biggest reason (indirect)  for any future war involving China would be the frustration among men. 200 Chinese men out of every 1200 simply can't get married due to lack of women.  

How does India compare?

[randomGuy]

1 hour ago, zen said:

How does India compare?

It's better (1.1) here I guess. Also, here I think, the population pyramid is more conventional, means 15 yrs Olds r more in number than 20 yrs olds who in turn are more in numbers than 25 yrs olds...so extra men have younger women population as compensation ... So As of now, we are good... In future, probably not so... But less screwed than China anytime 

Edited January 28, 2018 by randomGuy

[zen]

4 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

It's better (1.1) here I guess. Also, here I think, the population pyramid is more conventional, means 15 yrs Olds r more in number than 20 yrs olds who in turn are more in numbers than 25 yrs olds...so extra men have younger women population as compensation ... So As of now, we are good... In future, probably not so... But less screwed than China anytime 

But this could also mean problems for Ind if it is not able to create enough suitable opportunities for its population 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Muloghonto]

People taking about 'slowing down of China's economy' makes me shake my head in disbelief.

Yes, their growth rate is slowing down. But they are still pulling AWAY from India.

You know why ? because China's real GDP (nominal) for 2017 is $9376 It grew at 6.7% That means, in 2016, China's per capita (nominal) GDP was $8787. Ie, they added $589 per capita last year.

Now lets look at India: our nominal per-capita GDP is $1989. India grew at 7.2% YAY we grew faster !!! But that means in 2016, India's per capita (nominal) GDP was $1855. Ie, we added $134 per capita to our economy last year.

 

As long as China continues to pull away from us in REAL dollar amount, they will continue to bully us. Simple.

 

[surajmal]

In India, economics reforms are a watershed moment. In China, its an executive order. 

[Muloghonto]

11 minutes ago, surajmal said:

In India, economics reforms are a watershed moment. In China, its an executive order. 

Yet, you'd rather live in 'jhoparpatti' India than ' yes sir no sir how high sir' China. 

 

[MechEng]

I don't get worried about our opponents anymore now, India has faced hostilites since the time of queen Semiramis and I'm sure we'll tough it out through any form of hostility China presents us.

[narenpande1]

2 hours ago, Muloghonto said:

People taking about 'slowing down of China's economy' makes me shake my head in disbelief.

Yes, their growth rate is slowing down. But they are still pulling AWAY from India.

You know why ? because China's real GDP (nominal) for 2017 is $9376 It grew at 6.7% That means, in 2016, China's per capita (nominal) GDP was $8787. Ie, they added $589 per capita last year.

Now lets look at India: our nominal per-capita GDP is $1989. India grew at 7.2% YAY we grew faster !!! But that means in 2016, India's per capita (nominal) GDP was $1855. Ie, we added $134 per capita to our economy last year.

 

As long as China continues to pull away from us in REAL dollar amount, they will continue to bully us. Simple.

 

Because you know NOTHING. 

 

China requires 5 dollars of debt for every 1 dollar of INCREMENTAL gdp ( ie gdp growth) 

 

because they have to meet growth targets come what may - they keep getting sucked into  more and More debt.

 

When there is a difference between gdp growth and economic growth ( which is not the same thing )- it results in a disaster at some point.

 

Extraordinary debt fueled infrastructure projects over a decade that have not had takers means - that debt cannot be paid  fully or partially. So although that debt was used to build hard assets, those assets are not income producing - rather loss making and so although the work that went onto produce those assets resulted in gdp growth ( by the definition of gdp ) - it is not economic growth. It is an accumulation of bad debt that will blow up on chinas face.

 

because China wants to avoid a hardlanding, they are still taking insane amounts of debts each year to gradually come down at 10 bps less gdp growth a year. 

 

But this short sighted policy will result in a bigger disaster as China is taking debt in a manner unseen in human history 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.timeinc.net/fortune/2017/12/07/china-gdp-growth-economy

 

 

Edited January 28, 2018 by narenpande1

[Muloghonto]

6 minutes ago, narenpande1 said:

Because you know NOTHING. 

 

China requires 5 dollars of debt for every 1 dollar of INCREMENTAL gdp ( ie gdp growth) 

 

because they have to meet growth targets come what may - they keep getting sucked into  more and More debt.

 

When there is a difference between gdp growth and economic growth ( which is not the same thing )- it results in a disaster at some point.

 

Extraordinary debt fueled infrastructure projects over a decade that have not had takers means - that debt cannot be paid  fully or partially. So although that debt was used to build hard assets, those assets are not income producing - rather loss making and so although the work that went onto produce those assets resulted in gdp growth ( by the definition of gdp ) - it is not economic growth. It is an accumulation of bad debt that will blow up on chinas face.

 

because China wants to avoid a hardlanding, they are still taking insane amounts of debts each year to gradually come down at 10 bps less gdp growth a year. 

 

But this short sighted policy will result in a bigger disaster as China is taking debt in a manner unseen in human history 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.timeinc.net/fortune/2017/12/07/china-gdp-growth-economy

 

 

This doom-n-gloom fear-mongering over China has been going on for over 10 years now, ever since the Sub-prime mortgate crisis gave an inkling to the fears re: China's economy.

 

Nobody cares anymore, because what every smart investor has learned, is that China's economy is an opaque economy that contravenes trade laws with government often bailing out/propping businesses to an extreme degree. 

So China's debt is irrelevant. Its mostly their internal debt and their government will do some more shadow-banking to get rid of it when it becomes too much of a problem.

 

 

You need to accept the cold hard facts : China is pulling away from India economically, despite a slowdown in their growth rate and India is going to be a secondary player to China in our lifetime and possibly much longer.

[narenpande1]

16 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

This doom-n-gloom fear-mongering over China has been going on for over 10 years now, ever since the Sub-prime mortgate crisis gave an inkling to the fears re: China's economy.

 

Nobody cares anymore, because what every smart investor has learned, is that China's economy is an opaque economy that contravenes trade laws with government often bailing out/propping businesses to an extreme degree. 

So China's debt is irrelevant. Its mostly their internal debt and their government will do some more shadow-banking to get rid of it when it becomes too much of a problem.

 

 

You need to accept the cold hard facts : China is pulling away from India economically, despite a slowdown in their growth rate and India is going to be a secondary player to China in our lifetime and possibly much longer.

It is doom and gloom for sure. China has been post poning disaster by getting into more debt - which will result in unbearable pain.

 

Even China’s central bank governor accepts it, which means the reality is many many times worse.

https://www.economist.com/news/china/21731406-xi-jinpings-enormous-power-still-has-limits-what-debt-crisis-provinces-says-about

 

the US being a far more allround and solid economy had 170 % debt to gdp ratio during the 2008/9 crisis. Also US did not go on a wonton retarded sprint building unproductive infrastructure - the debt US took was to keep ploughing money to local  industry’s

 

China which is a far More one sided economy ( build and export ) .. is already above 300 % debt to gdp.  This is where chinas central command will be a huge weakness - any other free market economy , will make debt very difficult - like US did, and let market correction happen.

 

china is not curbing debt to meet GDP numbers and digging a bigger hole for itself.

 

japan In the 80s was similarly thought as an invincible economy and they went into almost 2 decades of no growth or negative growth - when their debt fueled asset bubble burst - even  without this level of debt.

 

china will meet the same fate at best, but more likely far worse.

 

 

 

 

[narenpande1]

33 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

This doom-n-gloom fear-mongering over China has been going on for over 10 years now, ever since the Sub-prime mortgate crisis gave an inkling to the fears re: China's economy.

 

Nobody cares anymore, because what every smart investor has learned, is that China's economy is an opaque economy that contravenes trade laws with government often bailing out/propping businesses to an extreme degree. 

So China's debt is irrelevant. Its mostly their internal debt and their government will do some more shadow-banking to get rid of it when it becomes too much of a problem.

 

 

You need to accept the cold hard facts : China is pulling away from India economically, despite a slowdown in their growth rate and India is going to be a secondary player to China in our lifetime and possibly much longer.

 

Do you even understand basic macro economics ? Bad  Internal debt can be far more toxic and unforgiving than external debt ( which can be managed geopolitically )

 

when such huge amounts of debt goes bad, it results in asset prices ( especially real estate in China ) crashing. When real estate crashes, the equity that the borrowers had goes negative  or best case they lose it all. And if that equity that was bloated due to a bubble and was used to borrow for personal finance - it becomes an even more vicious credit bubble. 

 

China is in DEEP ****. Even they know it.

atleast 15 years of stagnant or negative economy awaits them - once they start deleveraging.

Edited January 29, 2018 by narenpande1

[surajmal]

Even if Chinese economy craters, they will come out fine, eventually (after a turmoil of year or two). All their infra is built. It's a matter of innovation now to spring into first world strata. Economy is financial jugglery in the end. Chinese have leveraged that jugglery into crapload of tangible assets that will serve them good for the next 100 years. 

You give India a similar choice, 9/10 indians will take it without blinking. 

[Muloghonto]

41 minutes ago, narenpande1 said:

 

Do you even understand basic macro economics ? Bad  Internal debt can be far more toxic and unforgiving than external debt ( which can be managed geopolitically )

 

when such huge amounts of debt goes bad, it results in asset prices ( especially real estate in China ) crashing. When real estate crashes, the equity that the borrowers had goes negative  or best case they lose it all. And if that equity that was bloated due to a bubble and was used to borrow for personal finance - it becomes an even more vicious credit bubble. 

 

China is in DEEP ****. Even they know it.

atleast 15 years of stagnant or negative economy awaits them - once they start deleveraging.

Basic macro-economics applies to open economies. Not closed, opaque economies. As long as China can keep accumulating FDI and have flow of capital into China, their internal debt is completely irrelevant. 

China, like every totalitarian and opaque regime, is not constrained by the same global banking laws regarding bailouts and debt forgiveness towards its banks. 

 

You are saying what many, many analysts have said over the last 10 years, under the assumption that Chinese economy works like a western economy does (India for eg works like a western economy does) and have been consistently proven wrong. 

[narenpande1]

18 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

Basic macro-economics applies to open economies. Not closed, opaque economies. As long as China can keep accumulating FDI and have flow of capital into China, their internal debt is completely irrelevant. 

China, like every totalitarian and opaque regime, is not constrained by the same global banking laws regarding bailouts and debt forgiveness towards its banks. 

 

You are saying what many, many analysts have said over the last 10 years, under the assumption that Chinese economy works like a western economy does (India for eg works like a western economy does) and have been consistently proven wrong. 

Except for the fact that a 33 trillion dollar internal debt  and counting cannot be pushed under a rug without a financial earthquake. 

 

Japan in the 80s was just like china - centrally controlled planned economy. 

It has been a dud economy for nearly 25 years now after the burst of the asset bubble.

 

Either you deleverage and  accept a much lower gdp growth ( which China is not willing to undergo) or pay the price with a massive financial turmoil.

 

chinas fdi is now a tiny drop of its economy. 

It cannot compensate for 33 Trillion dollars of debt.

 

[narenpande1]

1 hour ago, surajmal said:

Even if Chinese economy craters, they will come out fine, eventually (after a turmoil of year or two). All their infra is built. It's a matter of innovation now to spring into first world strata. Economy is financial jugglery in the end. Chinese have leveraged that jugglery into crapload of tangible assets that will serve them good for the next 100 years. 

You give India a similar choice, 9/10 indians will take it without blinking. 

 

Japan had infrastructure that was 25 years ahead of its time in the 80s, yet it got crushed after the asset bubble burst.

 

The fact that they have got everything buillt is a curse. Where are hundreds of millions of Chinese workers who were engaged in this massive infrastructure overhaul over 25 years going to be employed now ? Where are Millions of Chinese workers that rely on Chinese export factory going to be employed as demand growth has absolutely dried out in consumer based North America and Europe.

 

china cannot all of a sudden become a consumer economy to make up for it .

it is a cultural thing and takes atleast a generation to bring about that mindset 

[Muloghonto]

2 minutes ago, narenpande1 said:

Except for the fact that a 33 trillion dollar internal debt  and counting cannot be pushed under a rug without a financial earthquake. 

Sure can. Its called totalitarian state. China can seize properties left, right and center, suppress dissent and send people to 're-education camps' if they protest too much. Thats how you push it under the rug and they are doing it, as we speak. 

 

2 minutes ago, narenpande1 said:

Japan in the 80s was just like china - centrally controlled planned economy. 

It has been a dud economy for nearly 25 years now after the burst of the asset bubble.

Centrally controlled does not equate to totalitarian control. Japan didn't go around seizing people's assets left right and center with no consequence. China has and does. HUGE difference. 

 

2 minutes ago, narenpande1 said:

Either you deleverage and  accept a much lower gdp growth ( which China is not willing to undergo) or pay the price with a massive financial turmoil.

 

chinas fdi is now a tiny drop of its economy. 

It cannot compensate for 33 Trillion dollars of debt.

 

As i said, you are making the classic mistake of failing to see that China has the ability to do whatever the heck it wants internally, with no consequence. Your mistake, like that of countless other 'analysts' is to apply accountable government principles to an unaccountable one. 

 

This is the reason - the ONLY reason- why China is carrying a debt that would collapse nations like the US or Japan and still trucking along. THEY DO NOT CARE. If they really NEED to balance their budget or write off debt, tens of thousands of homes will be seized, personal bank accounts will be emptied at the behest of the government and those who protest, will disappear. 

 

[narenpande1]

1 minute ago, Muloghonto said:

Sure can. Its called totalitarian state. China can seize properties left, right and center, suppress dissent and send people to 're-education camps' if they protest too much. Thats how you push it under the rug and they are doing it, as we speak. 

 

Centrally controlled does not equate to totalitarian control. Japan didn't go around seizing people's assets left right and center with no consequence. China has and does. HUGE difference. 

 

As i said, you are making the classic mistake of failing to see that China has the ability to do whatever the heck it wants internally, with no consequence. Your mistake, like that of countless other 'analysts' is to apply accountable government principles to an unaccountable one. 

 

This is the reason - the ONLY reason- why China is carrying a debt that would collapse nations like the US or Japan and still trucking along. THEY DO NOT CARE. If they really NEED to balance their budget or write off debt, tens of thousands of homes will be seized, personal bank accounts will be emptied at the behest of the government and those who protest, will disappear. 

 

 

You clearly have no understanding of how economies function. 

 

When 5 dollars of credit is required to produce 1 dollar of incremental gdp growth ( this was at 1.5 dollars of credit in 2005 and will grow to 7, 8 dollars in 2019) - for a managed gdp growth of 6.5 1 you are just staring at disaster.

 

Any enforced  develeraging effect will produce a negative gdp growth or close to zero now. This addiction to debt has to stop at some point.

 

You can seize all the assets you want - it makes no difference because those assets are 5-6 times their normalized value and the only balancing effect would be massive devaluation of the yuan.

 

 

 

[narenpande1]

.. and once the devaluation of yuan happens ... you can kiss good bye to FDI