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Runs expectations in Aus (BorGav Trophy)


zen

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To be competitive in Aus in relatively good batting surfaces, we may need to avg a min of 600 runs per test. For the 4 test series, it gives us 2,400 runs. Below is how I expect (budget allocation) the runs to be scored:

 

  • Top Order (Openers + Pujara) = 1,000 
  • Kohli (would not like to miss out in Aus) = 450
  • Rahane (SENA specialist so expected to put his hand up in his strong zone) = 450
  • #6 = 250
  • Rest (depending upon our combination and who plays at 7) = 250+ 
  • Total (min required) = 2,400 

 

  • This is probably the min required to make us competitive unless we keep bowling out Aus for less than 250 per inning, which is 500 runs per test 
  • Depending up on the pitches and to give ourselves an opportunity to be in winning positions, we may need 700 runs per test = 2,800 runs 

 

 

PS

 

In the last 5 years, Ind in Aus 

  • 1 to 6: Runs scored 84%
  • 7 to 11: Runs scored 16% 
Edited by zen
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Just now, UnknownGenius said:

Your bugdet is too low for 7-11. Basically your budget tells me 7-11 are bonafide tailenders.

 

250 runs across say 8 innings is about 30 runs per inning give or take. Divide by 5 (7,8,9,10,11) and you're expecting an average of just 6 runs per innings from numbers 7 to 11

 

Note: I hope for your company's sake you're not the one putting together budgets. Don't be in a hurry to start threads. Take a step back and work on your numbers diligently. I'm out of this thread because it is not trustworthy and lacks integrity

Ok genius! whatever works for you 

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48 minutes ago, UnknownGenius said:

Your bugdet is too low for 7-11. Basically your budget tells me 7-11 are bonafide tailenders.

 

250 runs across say 8 innings is about 30 runs per inning give or take. Divide by 5 (7,8,9,10,11) and you're expecting an average of just 6 runs per innings from numbers 7 to 11

 

Note: I hope for your company's sake you're not the one putting together budgets. Don't be in a hurry to start threads. Take a step back and work on your numbers diligently. I'm out of this thread because it is not trustworthy and lacks integrity

Why just this thread? Why not get out of this forum as well? :pray:

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Rahane in Aus

 

Records type batting analysis [change type]
View career summary [change view]
Home or away away (home of opposition) remove away (home of opposition) from query
Host country Australia remove Australia from query
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Career averages
  Mat Inns NO Runs HS Ave BF SR 100 50 0 4s 6s  
unfiltered 52 88 10 3266 188 41.87 6415 50.91 9 15 6 370 23 Profile
filtered 4 8 1 399 147 57.00 628 63.53 1 2 1 52 0

 

  • Do some folks expect us to reduce his budget when he is being played to put his hand up in SENA? :lol: 
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This thread has reminded me of something similar I wrote - 15 years ago before an unprecedented successful Indian tour down under.  It was one of the first series I watched online, willow.tv was new back then, and the stream quality was excellent with zero ads.  

 

Quote

There has been a lot of despondent, negative moaning and whining about
how team India has no chance whatsoever, etc. While I do understand
the negativity and am also feeling a bit pessimistic, the first ball
is yet to be bowled, oz have yet to blast our over hyped pop-guns to
smithereens and they haven't quite skittled us out yet.

Let's leave aside the bowling for a moment and talk about our batting.
 There can be exhaustive debate as to how strong the batting really
is; their repeated failure overseas and an inability to come good as a
unit. Oft-repeated snippy comments about ‘knee problems' and
bounce-o-phobia not withstanding, Team India's trump card is its
batting. With 2 of the best 5 batsmen in the world, a combative and
mentally strong Skipper and a class #6 capable of match-winning
innings on his day, the Indian middle-order has the ability and
potential to go head-to-head with the finest bowlers and come out on
top. Even the inexperienced openers are some cause for hope with a
feisty and talented (although a bit impetuous) Sehwag and an
impressive (so far) Akash Chopra. The Indian batting unit is easily
the strongest component of the team and will shoulder the maximum
responsibility.

My expectations are for the batting to average about 320 runs per
Innings, at a minumum 300 per innings. At the very least, they should
accomplish this in the first innings of every test.
A secondary target would be that I'd like to see them bat an average
of 90+ overs per innings ( 100+ overs in the 1st innings).

With 6 batsmen, a non-rounder and a keeper, they are capable of doing
that - getting to 300+ can be done even if only 3 batsmen post 50+
scores and the rest chip in - hell, even 2 100s can do it  .
Why can't the top 6 give us a (25 + 6 + 63 + 82 + 16 + 55) for
instance? I'm looking for the tail to give us an average of 50-70 runs
per innings. Don't think that's too much to ask is it for 5 wickets?
If they do that and the top 6 muster together about 250-275, again not
asking for the moon here, we get to 325.

If they manage to get to 600+ runs in a test, then we succeed in
taking the game well into the 5th day, the likelihood of draws is
significantly high, and an oz fcuk-up could even bring in a
possibility of an unlikely win.

A look back at the most recent tour to Australia - Our best four
batsmen were part of the debacle.

Test.Innings__ Runs/Overs________Run rate (Indian Batting only)
1.2 ___________285/113___________2.5
1.4___________110/39___________2.8
2.2___________238/77___________ 3.1
2.4___________195/90___________ 2.2
3.1___________ 150/68___________ 2.2
3.3___________261/58___________ 4.5

India average score per innings 206 (1st innings avg. 224, 2nd 189)–
average overs per innings consumed 75(1st innings avg. 86, 2nd 66).
Failed to cross 300 even once, only once out of 6 innings, did we
survive more than 90 overs.

The Indian team was in complete disarray at that time, I don't think
it's possible to do worse this time around.

So is it an unreasonable overly optimistic, too demanding to expect this
team to put up an avg. of 300 runs per innings?

 

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Nostalgia aside, I expect its going to be a quality contest.  I'm leaning towards expecting the Aus tracks to not be concrete run-filled roads for this series.  Just like SA and England amped up their home advantage, I expect Aus to double down on the one thing that is alien to Indian batsmen, and relative familiar to Aussie ones - Bounce.  

 

If you give neutral conditions to this Indian team, they will beat your arse.  SA managed to squeak out a test series thanks to poor Indian planning, and a failure to press home the advantage in the 1st test, when Bhuvi had them 3 down for nothing.  Similarly, if India had managed to score 20-odd more runs in the 1st test of the England series, I suspect that the final scoreline would have been radically different.  The only thing that saved SA and England, were that the native bowler friendly conditions were super-amped up an extent that the home players familiarity with it managed to end up being the deciding factor.  

 

Australia can go 2 ways - the usual concrete roads, or super bouncy tracks.  The former is less likely given that they will be missing 2 of their biggest home track bullies against us, and the fact that we are equally or more capable than their team of piling on runs and having a bowling unit that can be effective in such conditions, especially on the spin side.  

 

I think they will be putting their bets on bounce.  

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