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Runs expectations in Aus (BorGav Trophy)

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To be competitive in Aus in relatively good batting surfaces, we may need to avg a min of 600 runs per test. For the 4 test series, it gives us 2,400 runs. Below is how I expect (budget allocation) the runs to be scored:

 

  • Top Order (Openers + Pujara) = 1,000 
  • Kohli (would not like to miss out in Aus) = 450
  • Rahane (SENA specialist so expected to put his hand up in his strong zone) = 450
  • #6 = 250
  • Rest (depending upon our combination and who plays at 7) = 250+ 
  • Total (min required) = 2,400 

 

  • This is probably the min required to make us competitive unless we keep bowling out Aus for less than 250 per inning, which is 500 runs per test 
  • Depending up on the pitches and to give ourselves an opportunity to be in winning positions, we may need 700 runs per test = 2,800 runs 

 

 

PS

 

In the last 5 years, Ind in Aus 

  • 1 to 6: Runs scored 84%
  • 7 to 11: Runs scored 16% 
Edited by zen

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Just now, UnknownGenius said:

 

No offense but I stopped reading when you expected Kohli and Rahane to score the same number of runs

Min requirement expected from a SENA specialist batsman (budget allocation) :winky: .... I do not expect him to score 450 though (meet the budget) 

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Just now, UnknownGenius said:

I would expect more from the rest tbh.

 

7,8,9,10,11 across 4 tests and perhaps 8 innings and just 250 runs???

 

Pandya himself if he is the all rounder people claim to be should be scoring 250 runs minimum across 4 tests

 

 

They can always go beyond their "budget"

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Just now, UnknownGenius said:

Your bugdet is too low for 7-11. Basically your budget tells me 7-11 are bonafide tailenders.

 

250 runs across say 8 innings is about 30 runs per inning give or take. Divide by 5 (7,8,9,10,11) and you're expecting an average of just 6 runs per innings from numbers 7 to 11

 

Note: I hope for your company's sake you're not the one putting together budgets. Don't be in a hurry to start threads. Take a step back and work on your numbers diligently. I'm out of this thread because it is not trustworthy and lacks integrity

Ok genius! whatever works for you 

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48 minutes ago, UnknownGenius said:

Your bugdet is too low for 7-11. Basically your budget tells me 7-11 are bonafide tailenders.

 

250 runs across say 8 innings is about 30 runs per inning give or take. Divide by 5 (7,8,9,10,11) and you're expecting an average of just 6 runs per innings from numbers 7 to 11

 

Note: I hope for your company's sake you're not the one putting together budgets. Don't be in a hurry to start threads. Take a step back and work on your numbers diligently. I'm out of this thread because it is not trustworthy and lacks integrity

Why just this thread? Why not get out of this forum as well? :pray:

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Rahane in Aus

 

Records type batting analysis [change type]
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Career averages
  Mat Inns NO Runs HS Ave BF SR 100 50 0 4s 6s  
unfiltered 52 88 10 3266 188 41.87 6415 50.91 9 15 6 370 23 Profile
filtered 4 8 1 399 147 57.00 628 63.53 1 2 1 52 0

 

  • Do some folks expect us to reduce his budget when he is being played to put his hand up in SENA? :lol: 

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I hope at least a couple of our batsmen have a great series (500 runs) as we have to get closer to the 2,800 runs mark (if not more depending up on the tracks)

Edited by zen

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This thread has reminded me of something similar I wrote - 15 years ago before an unprecedented successful Indian tour down under.  It was one of the first series I watched online, willow.tv was new back then, and the stream quality was excellent with zero ads.  

 

Quote

There has been a lot of despondent, negative moaning and whining about
how team India has no chance whatsoever, etc. While I do understand
the negativity and am also feeling a bit pessimistic, the first ball
is yet to be bowled, oz have yet to blast our over hyped pop-guns to
smithereens and they haven't quite skittled us out yet.

Let's leave aside the bowling for a moment and talk about our batting.
 There can be exhaustive debate as to how strong the batting really
is; their repeated failure overseas and an inability to come good as a
unit. Oft-repeated snippy comments about ‘knee problems' and
bounce-o-phobia not withstanding, Team India's trump card is its
batting. With 2 of the best 5 batsmen in the world, a combative and
mentally strong Skipper and a class #6 capable of match-winning
innings on his day, the Indian middle-order has the ability and
potential to go head-to-head with the finest bowlers and come out on
top. Even the inexperienced openers are some cause for hope with a
feisty and talented (although a bit impetuous) Sehwag and an
impressive (so far) Akash Chopra. The Indian batting unit is easily
the strongest component of the team and will shoulder the maximum
responsibility.

My expectations are for the batting to average about 320 runs per
Innings, at a minumum 300 per innings. At the very least, they should
accomplish this in the first innings of every test.
A secondary target would be that I'd like to see them bat an average
of 90+ overs per innings ( 100+ overs in the 1st innings).

With 6 batsmen, a non-rounder and a keeper, they are capable of doing
that - getting to 300+ can be done even if only 3 batsmen post 50+
scores and the rest chip in - hell, even 2 100s can do it  .
Why can't the top 6 give us a (25 + 6 + 63 + 82 + 16 + 55) for
instance? I'm looking for the tail to give us an average of 50-70 runs
per innings. Don't think that's too much to ask is it for 5 wickets?
If they do that and the top 6 muster together about 250-275, again not
asking for the moon here, we get to 325.

If they manage to get to 600+ runs in a test, then we succeed in
taking the game well into the 5th day, the likelihood of draws is
significantly high, and an oz fcuk-up could even bring in a
possibility of an unlikely win.

A look back at the most recent tour to Australia - Our best four
batsmen were part of the debacle.

Test.Innings__ Runs/Overs________Run rate (Indian Batting only)
1.2 ___________285/113___________2.5
1.4___________110/39___________2.8
2.2___________238/77___________ 3.1
2.4___________195/90___________ 2.2
3.1___________ 150/68___________ 2.2
3.3___________261/58___________ 4.5

India average score per innings 206 (1st innings avg. 224, 2nd 189)–
average overs per innings consumed 75(1st innings avg. 86, 2nd 66).
Failed to cross 300 even once, only once out of 6 innings, did we
survive more than 90 overs.

The Indian team was in complete disarray at that time, I don't think
it's possible to do worse this time around.

So is it an unreasonable overly optimistic, too demanding to expect this
team to put up an avg. of 300 runs per innings?

 

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Nostalgia aside, I expect its going to be a quality contest.  I'm leaning towards expecting the Aus tracks to not be concrete run-filled roads for this series.  Just like SA and England amped up their home advantage, I expect Aus to double down on the one thing that is alien to Indian batsmen, and relative familiar to Aussie ones - Bounce.  

 

If you give neutral conditions to this Indian team, they will beat your arse.  SA managed to squeak out a test series thanks to poor Indian planning, and a failure to press home the advantage in the 1st test, when Bhuvi had them 3 down for nothing.  Similarly, if India had managed to score 20-odd more runs in the 1st test of the England series, I suspect that the final scoreline would have been radically different.  The only thing that saved SA and England, were that the native bowler friendly conditions were super-amped up an extent that the home players familiarity with it managed to end up being the deciding factor.  

 

Australia can go 2 ways - the usual concrete roads, or super bouncy tracks.  The former is less likely given that they will be missing 2 of their biggest home track bullies against us, and the fact that we are equally or more capable than their team of piling on runs and having a bowling unit that can be effective in such conditions, especially on the spin side.  

 

I think they will be putting their bets on bounce.  

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13 hours ago, tweaker said:

If Pant plays as he has played in the last 3 tests, we may expect 300 runs from him.

His runs may turn out to be the deciding factor in the Australia test series.

 

If Pandya or Bhubaneswar are playing as 4th pacer after Bumrah, Shami, Ishant,we may expect atleast 150 runs from them.

I love seeing the bhuvneswar kumar test predictions here. Invariably the predictors fall flat on their face. Remember the predictions of him before england series (he didnt have the pace to trouble good batsman was the unanimous predictions- he took 19 wickets) and the SA series ( he was predicted to completely fail even after seeing the pitch in the first test) as he couldnt bounce or reverse (both of which he did). Of course both of those predictions were latest revised as...but, but green pitches even when while making those it was clearly said he would fail against good batsmen

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On 10/13/2018 at 9:04 PM, UnknownGenius said:

Your bugdet is too low for 7-11. Basically your budget tells me 7-11 are bonafide tailenders.

 

250 runs across say 8 innings is about 30 runs per inning give or take. Divide by 5 (7,8,9,10,11) and you're expecting an average of just 6 runs per innings from numbers 7 to 11

 

Note: I hope for your company's sake you're not the one putting together budgets. Don't be in a hurry to start threads. Take a step back and work on your numbers diligently. I'm out of this thread because it is not trustworthy and lacks integrity

The OP is trying to hide Pandya in there and that's why there is minimum expectations of 6 runs per innings. 

Edited by Lannister

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9 hours ago, gattaca said:

My predictions:

shaw - 360

rahul- 280

pujara - 200

kohli-440

rahane -320

pandya- 240

rest all- 200

 

Rough glance tells me it is about 2K runs. May not be enough unless it is a low scoring series .... min 2400 to compete  .... ideally 2600-2800 if not more (depending upon tracks) 

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Aus tracks will be flat, drop in pitches. Need one two searing fast bowling spells to open up matches. We lost brisbane test last time like that, whole match in control, one Johnson spell and boom. Let's not ask too much from openers and a start of 40-50 avg. Lower order needs to wag and 4-6 needs to pull the bulk of scoring.Looking at Rahane, Kohli and surprisingly Pant. Also, I wish we would try 2 spinners in adilaede and Sydney at least and not play Pandya. Target should be bat first and score 400.

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11 hours ago, sandeep said:

Nostalgia aside, I expect its going to be a quality contest.  I'm leaning towards expecting the Aus tracks to not be concrete run-filled roads for this series.  Just like SA and England amped up their home advantage, I expect Aus to double down on the one thing that is alien to Indian batsmen, and relative familiar to Aussie ones - Bounce.  

 

If you give neutral conditions to this Indian team, they will beat your arse.  SA managed to squeak out a test series thanks to poor Indian planning, and a failure to press home the advantage in the 1st test, when Bhuvi had them 3 down for nothing.  Similarly, if India had managed to score 20-odd more runs in the 1st test of the England series, I suspect that the final scoreline would have been radically different.  The only thing that saved SA and England, were that the native bowler friendly conditions were super-amped up an extent that the home players familiarity with it managed to end up being the deciding factor.  

 

Australia can go 2 ways - the usual concrete roads, or super bouncy tracks.  The former is less likely given that they will be missing 2 of their biggest home track bullies against us, and the fact that we are equally or more capable than their team of piling on runs and having a bowling unit that can be effective in such conditions, especially on the spin side.  

 

I think they will be putting their bets on bounce.  

Bringing back bounce is not that easy. Eng was lucky with weather and seam of duke ball is something you can control and manufacture. Aussie pitches have died down over the years. The problem still is their pacers still generate bounce and pace through their strength. Indian pacers have to match that. They might put some grass on the pitches though.

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11 hours ago, sandeep said:

This thread has reminded me of something similar I wrote - 15 years ago before an unprecedented successful Indian tour down under.  It was one of the first series I watched online, willow.tv was new back then, and the stream quality was excellent with zero ads.  

 

 

I was a kid back then. Made me instantly fall in love with Australian grounds. I will never forget Dravid's celebration after that single.

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2 hours ago, SrinjayDutta said:

I was a kid back then. Made me instantly fall in love with Australian grounds. I will never forget Dravid's celebration after that single.

Best series I have ever watched.  Started as underdogs, ended with a drawn series that felt like it should have been a win.   If DRS had existed, it well would have been.  There were close to a dozen leg-before shouts that weren't given, against the likes of Langer, Hayden and Ponting - especially Langer and Ponting, who tended to fall over a LOT early in his innings.  

 

Veeru's blistering 195 at MCG has made me put being at the MCG for a boxing day India-Aus test match, right at the top of my bucket list.  I've posted about the experience before - the stream for that 1st session of that test had a technical issue, so the only audio coming through was stump-mics.  On the heels of a rain-affected draw, in a series where all of Aus expected India to just show up and roll over, the MCG test was supposed to be a 'back to business' test - where on a fast bouncy track, Brett Lee and co were going to rip apart the Indian batting.  The first hour was filled with bouncers hitting helmets - both Chopra and Veeru copped a few.  And then... :)  

 

One of my fondest cricket memories.  

Edited by sandeep

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2 hours ago, SrinjayDutta said:

Bringing back bounce is not that easy. Eng was lucky with weather and seam of duke ball is something you can control and manufacture. Aussie pitches have died down over the years. The problem still is their pacers still generate bounce and pace through their strength. Indian pacers have to match that. They might put some grass on the pitches though.

I hear you, but I expect the pitches to be more bouncy and less benign than last time around.  The usual Aussie roads will be too much in India's favor.  CA have already started trialing the Dukes ball for FC cricket. I highly doubt they will switch to that just yet for int'l cricket. But I definitely expect the tracks to have more bounce.  

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Best series I have ever watched.  Started as underdogs, ended with a drawn series that felt like it should have been a win.   If DRS had existed, it well would have been.  There were close to a dozen leg-before shouts that weren't given, against the likes of Langer, Hayden and Ponting - especially Langer and Ponting, who tended to fall over a LOT early in his innings.  
 
Veeru's blistering 195 at MCG has made me put being at the MCG for a boxing day India-Aus test match, right at the top of my bucket list.  I've posted about the experience before - the stream for that 1st session of that test had a technical issue, so the only audio coming through was stump-mics.  On the heels of a rain-affected draw, in a series where all of Aus expected India to just show up and roll over, the MCG test was supposed to be a 'back to business' test - where on a fast bouncy track, Brett Lee and co were going to rip apart the Indian batting.  The first hour was filled with bouncers hitting helmets - both Chopra and Veeru copped a few.  And then... :)  
 
One of my fondest cricket memories.  
I remember a lot of that session and the series. A run out missed by brett lee and quite a few bouncers to the helmet.Wish a few decisions and stumping on the last day went in our favour. The quality of batting was at its peak for india. Most cherished series for me as well.

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I hear you, but I expect the pitches to be more bouncy and less benign than last time around.  The usual Aussie roads will be too much in India's favor.  CA have already started trialing the Dukes ball for FC cricket. I highly doubt they will switch to that just yet for int'l cricket. But I definitely expect the tracks to have more bounce.  
Then ind have to be cautious. I don't expect them really to score heavily against odds. More likely for the bowlers to achieve that in unhelpful conditions.the main reason is shot selection. Everyone wants to play their shots and don't trust their own defence. Pujara and rahane sometimes does the reverse and sometimes defend even half volleys. Consistent short bowling might get the whole ind team in trouble. Winning in Aus is so difficult for a subcontinental team. Still hoping for the best.

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6 hours ago, zen said:

Rough glance tells me it is about 2K runs. May not be enough unless it is a low scoring series .... min 2400 to compete  .... ideally 2600-2800 if not more (depending upon tracks) 

Might not be. We will be atttacked relentlessly by hazalewood , starc , Lyon. Too many quality bowlers. We used to play Warne quite well but now we can’t habdle any decent off spinner on 4 th and 5th. The only way to compete to is to bat first and score big and try to avoid batting in 4th innings. This is a recurring theme with this team we have high hopes first few days of the match but loose hope in the later part of the match. We had so many moments in the past series we were on top then we let it go. We couldn’t even get the tailender am out properly. The killer punch is missing.

Edited by gattaca

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On 10/13/2018 at 9:04 PM, UnknownGenius said:

Your bugdet is too low for 7-11. Basically your budget tells me 7-11 are bonafide tailenders.

 

250 runs across say 8 innings is about 30 runs per inning give or take. Divide by 5 (7,8,9,10,11) and you're expecting an average of just 6 runs per innings from numbers 7 to 11

 

Note: I hope for your company's sake you're not the one putting together budgets. Don't be in a hurry to start threads. Take a step back and work on your numbers diligently. I'm out of this thread because it is not trustworthy and lacks integrity

tailenders struggle in Aus due to bounce. Even Dhondi played like a tailender in Aus due to his struggle with bounce.

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11 hours ago, rkt.india said:

tailenders struggle in Aus due to bounce. Even Dhondi played like a tailender in Aus due to his struggle with bounce.

Additionally, the 7-11 could well be Ashwin, Kuldeep, Shami, Ishant and Bumrah for e.g. so there is no point in budgeting a lot of runs here vs. a good bowling like Aus in its home conditions. At times, what they get is merely a bonus 

 

 

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On 10/13/2018 at 11:35 PM, express bowling said:

Australian tracks are flat these days with limited movement on offer. Most of our batters are good against pace and bounce nowadays.

 

So I expect most of our top 6 batters to do much better than in SA and England.

 

 

It’s spin I am more worried Lyon and new spinner are good 

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