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Global GDP shifts in last 50 years


Austin 3:!6

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33 minutes ago, Austin 3:!6 said:

Check the jump in India's GDP just after 2014.

Liberals still have the audacity to question current govt. :der:

If current govt had avoided scoring own goals like demonitization etc, and made tangible progress to establishing SEZs, it could have been even better.  Not saying congress would be better, because I think they would have just as bad, maybe even worse.

 

But giving the Modi govt credit for GDP growth is like Trump taking credit for growth in the US economy.  

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2 minutes ago, sandeep said:

If current govt had avoided scoring own goals like demonetization etc, and made tangible progress to establishing SEZs, it could have been even better.  Not saying congress would be better, because I think they would have just as bad, maybe even worse.

 

But giving the Modi govt credit for GDP growth is like Trump taking credit for growth in the US economy.  

Demonetization was not a failure at all. Wait for few years and India will reap its benefits.

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6 minutes ago, sandeep said:

If current govt had avoided scoring own goals like demonitization etc, and made tangible progress to establishing SEZs, it could have been even better.  Not saying congress would be better, because I think they would have just as bad, maybe even worse.

 

But giving the Modi govt credit for GDP growth is like Trump taking credit for growth in the US economy.  

Do you even realize what Congress left the GDP at?

 

There is substantial improvement and Modi deserves credit. And Demo obviously helped, you can question its overall effectiveness but as a policy, it was a great move and a first step to a modern India with strong accountability 

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7 minutes ago, someone said:

And Demo obviously helped, you can question its overall effectiveness but as a policy, it was a great move and a first step to a modern India with strong accountability 

How was it a "great move"?  It cost us an entire percentage point in GDP growth - not even taking into account momentum, it was a price in billions.  And the corrupt found ways around it anyway.  I don't claim to be an economics expert, and initially, I was also hopeful that maybe it will have good results.  But the facts don't line up with that expectation.  Instead of resorting to red team blue team dishonest cheerleading, one should have enough integrity to accept facts.  Why is it so difficult for the administration or "bhakts" to accept that it was a move with good intentions but didn't work out? 

 

Intellectual dishonesty and propaganda are a road to regression not progress.

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2 minutes ago, sandeep said:

How was it a "great move"?  It cost us an entire percentage point in GDP growth - not even taking into account momentum, it was a price in billions.  And the corrupt found ways around it anyway.  I don't claim to be an economics expert, and initially, I was also hopeful that maybe it will have good results.  But the facts don't line up with that expectation.  Instead of resorting to red team blue team dishonest cheerleading, one should have enough integrity to accept facts.  Why is it so difficult for the administration or "bhakts" to accept that it was a move with good intentions but didn't work out? 

 

Intellectual dishonesty and propaganda are a road to regression not progress.

So you just make a random assumption, you could say 2 points , not just a single point. 

 

For India to grow, Its needs official money and that was the purpose served. We have already overcome the disruption caused by initial. And this disruption was essential for it to even work at first place. You are already many benefits for it and you cannot ignore it.

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Modi sarkar GDP growth rates haven't been unprecedented when compared to UPA avg growth rates.

 

The key thing from the video is the lost decades where our leadership was totally inept and couldn't decipher the basic difference between free market economies and centrally planned ones. I was critical of Nehruji earlier since the far left leaning economic ideology came from the beginning but then USSR was doing well in the initial post war years. The future govts were actually more regressive and learned nothing from the world around us until we needed to airlift our gold to get some $$ cash in hand.

 

How many countries have parties with communist ideologies to this day which frankly belong to the stone age.

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11 hours ago, sandeep said:

If current govt had avoided scoring own goals like demonitization etc, and made tangible progress to establishing SEZs, it could have been even better.  Not saying congress would be better, because I think they would have just as bad, maybe even worse.

 

But giving the Modi govt credit for GDP growth is like Trump taking credit for growth in the US economy.  

You are clearly missing the ease of doing business rank in India as well. It has improved as well. Congress has put red tape on top red tape.we can give some credit to this government for this. 

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On 11/7/2018 at 11:08 PM, gattaca said:

You are clearly missing the ease of doing business rank in India as well. It has improved as well. Congress has put red tape on top red tape.we can give some credit to this government for this. 

Oh great.  "Ease of business ranking" has improved.  Awesome.  That's supposed to be some great accomplishment of this government?  

 

What tangible accomplishments can this government point to with regards to boosting manufacturing in India?  Other than holding fancy splashy marketing seminars?  

 

Have any SEZs been formally established with adequate built up logistics and infrastructure?  Heck IIRC, even in Modi's home state of Gujarat, there is a project to make a Special Economic Zone in Dholavira - this project has been approved for a long time now - what progress has been made?  

 

What labor laws have been simplified or updated to encourage manufacturing?  IF its a politically difficult issue, again why hasn't the govt pushed forward with setting up SEZs with clear tax and labor policies restricted to the SEZ?  

 

Apart from extorting billions from its poor citizens and anyone who enters the country using the "Swacch Bharat Cess", how many garbage recycling plants have been built?  Apart from social media marketing, what is the status of urban waste processing supply chain in India?  

 

Why the eff has the current government failed to make serious progress in cleaning up the Ganga river?  

 

On 11/7/2018 at 11:51 AM, Austin 3:!6 said:

@sandeep - Pls tell us why GDP shoot high only from 2014? Why was it always below from 1966-2014? Surely this govt deserves credit?

Dude, This statement is so flawed I don't know where to begin.  On some rando simulation based video you think India's GDP has only been growing since 2014? 

 

 

On 11/7/2018 at 12:00 PM, someone said:

So you just make a random assumption, you could say 2 points , not just a single point. 

 

For India to grow, Its needs official money and that was the purpose served. We have already overcome the disruption caused by initial. And this disruption was essential for it to even work at first place. You are already many benefits for it and you cannot ignore it.

Its not a "random assumption", even the hardcore proponents of demonetization accepted that the cost of implementations would be close to one percentage point reduction in growth.  The argument was that the benefits would outweigh the cost.  The expectation was that there would be a large enough chunk of fake currency and 'black money' seizure or failure to convert, and the result would be a net positive.  The results are there for all to see.  I don't remember the exact percentage, but a surprisingly high percentage of currency notes were converted back into the system.  Which basically made the the whole damn thing an exercise in futility.  

 

Sure there were a few minor benefits of the exercise, increased adoption of digital payments etc, but that does not even begin to come close to offsetting the net cost.  Either you don't understand the macro-economics of it all, or you are being intentionally dishonest in spouting propaganda to defend the stupidity of that move.  Modi and BJP aren't the next avatars, that they can do no wrong you know.  You can criticize a policy while still supporting the party or a politician.  Why is that simple concept so difficult for some to accept?  Why does a reflexive resort to defensive propaganda, often having little basis in facts, become the de facto stance?  

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3 hours ago, sandeep said:

Oh great.  "Ease of business ranking" has improved.  Awesome.  That's supposed to be some great accomplishment of this government?  

 

What tangible accomplishments can this government point to with regards to boosting manufacturing in India?  Other than holding fancy splashy marketing seminars?  

 

Have any SEZs been formally established with adequate built up logistics and infrastructure?  Heck IIRC, even in Modi's home state of Gujarat, there is a project to make a Special Economic Zone in Dholavira - this project has been approved for a long time now - what progress has been made?  

 

What labor laws have been simplified or updated to encourage manufacturing?  IF its a politically difficult issue, again why hasn't the govt pushed forward with setting up SEZs with clear tax and labor policies restricted to the SEZ?  

 

Apart from extorting billions from its poor citizens and anyone who enters the country using the "Swacch Bharat Cess", how many garbage recycling plants have been built?  Apart from social media marketing, what is the status of urban waste processing supply chain in India?  

 

Why the eff has the current government failed to make serious progress in cleaning up the Ganga river?  

 

Dude, This statement is so flawed I don't know where to begin.  On some rando simulation based video you think India's GDP has only been growing since 2014? 

 

 

Its not a "random assumption", even the hardcore proponents of demonetization accepted that the cost of implementations would be close to one percentage point reduction in growth.  The argument was that the benefits would outweigh the cost.  The expectation was that there would be a large enough chunk of fake currency and 'black money' seizure or failure to convert, and the result would be a net positive.  The results are there for all to see.  I don't remember the exact percentage, but a surprisingly high percentage of currency notes were converted back into the system.  Which basically made the the whole damn thing an exercise in futility.  

 

Sure there were a few minor benefits of the exercise, increased adoption of digital payments etc, but that does not even begin to come close to offsetting the net cost.  Either you don't understand the macro-economics of it all, or you are being intentionally dishonest in spouting propaganda to defend the stupidity of that move.  Modi and BJP aren't the next avatars, that they can do no wrong you know.  You can criticize a policy while still supporting the party or a politician.  Why is that simple concept so difficult for some to accept?  Why does a reflexive resort to defensive propaganda, often having little basis in facts, become the de facto stance?  

For starters how about bringing a lot of unaccounted money into the banking system. Mind you I am not talking about black money etc which was the more appealing factor to the masses even though it doesn’t impact a significant majority.

 

Getting money in the banking system is a pretty major win for an economy like India. That in itself is a pretty big win for the whole demonetization exercise.

 

look it was an implementation failure. Everyone acknowledges that. if you actually read or listen to the original ingenious but radical idea of Arth Kranti by Anil Bokil and his team of scholars that  spawned this , demonetization was only a part of the many pieces of this radical idea .

 

In fact Digitalization, Demonetization, Having a banking setup at all levels, Abolishing income tax etc were all equally significant parts of this idea.

 

However when the government adopted it, The entire focus became on demonetization and some of the rest became by products.

 

Regardless it is still  a win.

 

This was still a radical experiment even though it was only partly implemented.So the government deserves props for this.

 

It is still a long term benefit in my book.

 

People suffering in queues and the marginal slowing down of the economy for a short period etc are only a short term pain points.

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ease of doing business is really a good improvement..

 

demonetization is not properly implemented and now it looks like a failure considering no significant black money is recovered ..

but banks got capitalized freely .. 

 

demonetization move is like modi consolidating the gdp growth in the middle overs waiting to accelerate at the death :p: 

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Manufacturing?? Isnt someone barking at the wrong tree? Modi is in power only for last 4 years and you are questioning him as if he is magically going to turn everything into gold? Tell me how India is supposed to compete with china. Tell me the product china producing for Rs10, how modi is suppose to compete with it. electronics and semiconductor industry, consumer goods, that whole market is a gonner for us. We are trying to get into the areas where it is viable and sustainable. Oil prices didnt help or else we would have seen lot of traction even in manufacturing. 

 

About Demo, simply explain, what previous governments did about black economy? why werent you questioning that? what have they done for middle class in last 70 years? How naive are we to expect this government to turn things around in such a short time? We indians are #1 begairat kaum. Khekde wali jamat hai. Koi achha kaam kare to usko khicho niche. At least Modi tried something unthinkable. If it is was not for the current oil prices, Modi would have hit with another demo but now we cannot afford it. But nonetheless, it was a great move towards turning our economy into digital economy. 

 

We certainly deserve pappus, lallus and buas. 

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