Test Career predictions - Ishant, Shami, Ashwin

[Trichromatic]

Ishant - 370 wickets at avg of 32

Shami - 250 wickets at avg of 27

Ashwin - 550 wickets at avg of 24

 

 

 

[ShoonyaSifar]

Careers of Ishant, Shami and Ashwin will get over in next 2 years. We have plenty of easy series coming up - vs Zim, BD, WI, SL. New pacers and Kuldeep have to be played regularly to get them ready for the big battes in 2020-21 vs Aus (4 tests at home and away), Eng  (5 tests at home and away) and 3 tests in SA

[rkt.india]

If Shami can control his ER which is very high at the moment at 3.41, he can get close to 25. 

[Ankit_sharma03]

I dont see Shami lasting that long to take 250 wkts . Max will end around 200 

 

[Trichromatic]

10 hours ago, Ankit_sharma03 said:

I dont see Shami lasting that long to take 250 wkts . Max will end around 200 

 

4 years 120 wickets?

[velu]

ashwin - 600 at 26 

ishanth - 350 at 34

shami - i really dont know how long he will last .. he is  3 more yrs older than bumrah  

[Muloghonto]

13 hours ago, Trichromatic said:

Ishant - 370 wickets at avg of 32

Shami - 250 wickets at avg of 27

Ashwin - 550 wickets at avg of 24

 

 

 

I think realistically, one of Ishant and Shami will end up with much less wickets than that, due to getting much less opportunities. 
The new crop of fast bowlers are looking the most promising India has ever had in the U-20s range, with Mavi, Nagarkoti (even though injured), Porel etc. making strong cases to be in the team over the next 2-3 years. Bumrah has already established himself as our #1 pacer and i think this margin will grow - especially if Bumrah doesn't prove himself to be the complete opposite of desi fast bowlers, aka 'beats up overseas but doesn't know how to bowl on pitches he grew up on'. This means, realistically, India's 2+2 home policy and a 3+1 overseas policy will see a big curtailment in one of Ishant and Shami's careers in the next 2-4 years.

 

[SUMO]

Ishant  325@34  ~ will not last more than couple of years at best, his pace is going down. Doesn't feature in home tests either.
                            He will be replaced by younger crop sooner. 
                            His current tally is 269, I will predict just 50+ wkts to go past zaheer's 311.

Shami   250@26 ~ I doubt he is actually 28. If he is, then 120-150 wickets more in next 4 years. 250 wickets realistic, 300 is outside                              possibility if he is fit.
 
Ashwin  600@27
            (regardless of bashing that he gets on SM, lets not forget his records. I consider him great/champion spinner if not ATG ... so               he will keep fighting, rediscovering himself time and again and play long) 
             Kumble, herath (leave ATGs like warne, murli) picked up 350+ wkts after turning 30. Kumble picked up 270 wkts from                       32(ashwin's current age) to 38.
             Moreover, ashwin's wickets/match is better in non sena countries, >6. 
             So, adding just 250 wickets more should not be tough for him. Can do it in 50 tests in next 6 years.

            

[Ankit_sharma03]

1 hour ago, Trichromatic said:

4 years 120 wickets?

u see him lasting for 4 yrs??? i dnt see him Lasting more then 2.....

[Trichromatic]

2 minutes ago, Ankit_sharma03 said:

 u see him lasting for 4 yrs??? i dnt see him Lasting more then 2.....

4 years in and out, 30 tests out of ~50 which India will play.

[ExtremeBrainfade]

45 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

I think realistically, one of Ishant and Shami will end up with much less wickets than that, due to getting much less opportunities. 
The new crop of fast bowlers are looking the most promising India has ever had in the U-20s range, with Mavi, Nagarkoti (even though injured), Porel etc. making strong cases to be in the team over the next 2-3 years. Bumrah has already established himself as our #1 pacer and i think this margin will grow - especially if Bumrah doesn't prove himself to be the complete opposite of desi fast bowlers, aka 'beats up overseas but doesn't know how to bowl on pitches he grew up on'. This means, realistically, India's 2+2 home policy and a 3+1 overseas policy will see a big curtailment in one of Ishant and Shami's careers in the next 2-4 years.

 

As the self-proclaimed #1 Siraj fan on this ICF, I cannot let any discussion of India fast bowlers exclude his name.  No one has made a stronger case than him.  

[ExtremeBrainfade]

Ashwin's future productivity literally hinges on one thing:  his hip joint.  

[Cricketics]

This is going to be their last Aussie tour 

[Muloghonto]

1 minute ago, ExtremeBrainfade said:

Ashwin's future productivity literally hinges on one thing:  his hip joint.  

Thats kind of true for 99% athletes. Look at Andy Murray - world #1 to world #800 due to a bum hip joint

[Muloghonto]

Just now, Cricketics said:

This is going to be their last Aussie tour 

Most likely not. According to the ICC schedules, the cycle for India-Australia inverts from the next series onwards due to being part of World Test Championship series. Next India-OZ series is slated to be in December 2020....in Australia.

 

[Cricketics]

4 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

Thats kind of true for 99% athletes. Look at Andy Murray - world #1 to world #800 due to a bum hip joint

Andy Murray’s ranking dropped because he is not playing. When he plays with protected ranking, his ranking rises up. Only tournament he made comeback, he reached quarter final here in Citi Open in Washington DC.

So when half fit, he still plays like top 50 player(which is damn food as Tennis top 50 is really competitive) and ranking his easily jumps back. 

 

Can you say that for Ashwin? No. Unless game is on Indian soil.

 

[Ankit_sharma03]

17 minutes ago, Trichromatic said:

4 years in and out, 30 tests out of ~50 which India will play.

with the competition  thats coming once ur out it ll tough getting back in, we have depth in fast bowling pool. Shami fitness is also not very supporting in his case

[goose]

as long as I live to see Ishant retire I will die happy

[Muloghonto]

21 minutes ago, Cricketics said:

Andy Murray’s ranking dropped because he is not playing. When he plays with protected ranking, his ranking rises up. Only tournament he made comeback, he reached quarter final here in Citi Open in Washington DC.

So when half fit, he still plays like top 50 player(which is damn food as Tennis top 50 is really competitive) and ranking his easily jumps back. 

 

Can you say that for Ashwin? No. Unless game is on Indian soil.

 

Well ok fair enough, but TBH his play is currently world # 100 level and i don't see it rising much beyond world #20 level because he did blow up his hip. These indian soil for a bowler vs tennis player who is a punching bag for 3 better ones is such a lame comparison, its not even apples to oranges, its like comparing an apple to a lug nut....the only point i was making, is that if you understand how sports that involve a lot of running works, along with human physiology, busted hip/hip injury, even once = near career ending/almost always career impacting decisively negatively forever scenario. 

 

[ExtremeBrainfade]

42 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

Thats kind of true for 99% athletes. Look at Andy Murray - world #1 to world #800 due to a bum hip joint

True. If he already didn't have hip niggles, I wouldn't make the statement I made.  But he does and everything hinges on how he can manage it.  If the status quo continues, I don't see him getting to 550-600.