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FischerTal

2019 Lok Sabha elections thread

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It should be noted that all the opinion polls to come out in the month of March have NDA in 40-42% zone. While seat shares can be hard to predict, post major alliances being factored in NDA is slowly moving away from UPA

 

 

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15 hours ago, G_B_ said:

It should be noted that all the opinion polls to come out in the month of March have NDA in 40-42% zone. While seat shares can be hard to predict, post major alliances being factored in NDA is slowly moving away from UPA

 

 

 

nda should really do some dumb things to lose this elections and i dont see that hapening.. 

most if the media have bias and they tend to give few more seats to congress & co ..

 

Loyola collage do pre polls and for the edapadi constituency ( 2016 assembly ) , they said palaniswamy will lose .. 

and EPS won the elections with 42k vote difference ( highest margin of victory in 2016 tn elections , even higher than jj ) ..

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see i am talking major polling houses. If you want to look at pro congress ones you need to look at Deccan chronicle (owner looking to get cong ticket) and spick media. Then you have plethora of right wing predictors on twitter ranging from 542 to chintamani who are bjp 300 brigade. Neither will happen. Loyola is DMK. Naturally they will back DMK. A recent Thanthi poll on TN has suggested that in last week of Feb AIADMK+ has basically a slender lead in about 12 seats. I would think that was more accurate.

 

 

 

 

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ADMK will be sabotaged by AMMK itself and they know it. The incumbency is so bad they themselves have given up on central and concentrating on the 20 odd state election seats.

 

If Deadbaadiiii loses either one of the election, losing the election will be the last of his problems.

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See i dont expect NDA to do well. But it wont be as bad as people make it out to be.

 

AMMK has tied up with SDPI and will suck out minority votes in the south which will impact DMK+ as well. Secondly AMMK has limited presence in Kongu belt where NDA aim to shine. His impact is in the Delta/central regions and south.

 

Secondly, the big weakness with DMK+ is that they have conceded too many seats to allies. 4 seats for the communists is just criminal. This long tail will allow the NDA to win seasts. For eg of the 5 seats BJP fighting, Coimbatore v CPM, KK v Cong and Ramnad v IUML the Thanthi poll is showing AIADMK+ having leads (survey taken before seats allocated).

 

9/12 NDA , 27/30 UPA. Thats my split. IMO it could have been much worse had DMK decided to contest 30 seats and left 9 for allies. 

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2 hours ago, surajmal said:

lol. Most Lemurs are fully in favour. Hinduism is a North Indian Aryan religion. Lemurs keep faith in Jeebus now. 

AIADMK is a pro-Hindu party and they stand a chance despite the absence of Amma factor. Previous elections both in Centre and State they won comfortably. I don't agree with you, those DMK, DK, NTK guys are fervently anti-Hindu. But at least the state has always had a counterbalance in the form of MGR/Amma/EPS/OPS etc, in Bengal we have had continuous Left/Mamata rule while in Kerala it is LDF-UDF swapping positions every 5 years. Compared to those places TN is in a good space even when it comes to status of Hindus. 

Edited by Gollum

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I think post amma long term its important BJP even though they might lose the state this round of elections maintain a stable alliance in the state.

 

I dont think the likes of DMDK PMK and AIADMK would mind allying long term with BJP to put forward a hindu lite stance in the state

 

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BJP Lok Sabha 1st full list: BJP announces names of 184 candidates

 
Some prominent candidates (full list in above link):
 

Narendra Modi (Varanasi, UP)...repeat of 2014

Amit Shah(Gandhinagar, Gujarat)....LK Advani's seat

Sanjeev Kumar Balyan (Muzaffarnagar, UP).....vs Ajit Singh, Jat vs Jat mega duel

Mahesh Sharma (Gautam Budh Nagar, UP)

Hema Malini (Mathura, UP) :facepalm:

S P Singh Baghel (Agra, UP)...deflector from SP/BSP

Sakshi Maharaj (Unnao, UP)

Rajnath Singh (Lucknow, UP)

Smriti Irani (Amethi, UP)....vs Rahul Gandhi again

Nitin Gadkari (Nagpur, Maharashtra)

Hansraj Ahir (Chandrapur, Maharashtra)

Poonam Mahajan (Mumbai North Central)

Kiren Rijiju (Arunachal East, Arunachal Pradesh)

Jitendra Singh (Udhampur, Jammu & Kashmir)

Anantkumar Hegde (Uttara Kannada)

Shobha Karandlaje (Udupi-Chikamangalur, Karnataka)

Sadananda Gowda (Bangalore North)

Alphonese Kannanthana (Ernakulam, Kerala)

Baijayant Panda (Kendrapara, Odisha)

Col. Rajyavardhansingh Rathore (Jaipur Rural, Rajasthan)

D Purandeshwari (Visakhapatnam , Andhra Pradesh)...NTR's daughter

Babul Supriyo (Asansol, West Bengal)....vs Moon Moon Sen

Dilip Ghosh (Medinipur, West Bengal)...Prez of Bengal unit of BJP, has been taking the fight to Jihadi Didi and TMC goons for the last 5 years

Chandra Kumar Bose (Kolkata Dakshin, West Bengal)...Netaji's kin

Smt. Locket Chaterjee ( Hooghly, West Bengal)

G Kishan Reddy (Secunderabad, Telangana)

Pon. Radhakrishnan (Kanniyakumari, Tamil Nadu)

Dr Tamilisai Soundarrajan (Thoothukkudi, Tamil Nadu)...pitted against DMK's Kanimozhi

H Raja (Sivaganga, Tamil Nadu)

C P Radhakrishnan (Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu)

Dushyant Singh (Jhalawar-Baran,Rajasthan)

Kummanam Rajasekharan (Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala)....vs Shashi Tharoor

Edited by Gollum

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BJP/NDA is relatively comfortable in states: Bihar, Maharastra, North East

For Congress/UPA: Punjab, Tamil Nadu

TRS/TMC in Tenglana, Bengal

 

All other states are hard to say. And this elections is all about who is more desperate. The deep state wants the status quo to be restored with Congress back in power, and they are gonna vote in big numbers together with 100% minority consolidation. So they are desperate, but will BJPians show the same desperation? I already see the fatigue, excuses, for not turning out to vote.

 

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4 hours ago, Gollum said:

Sambit Patra to contest from Puri, the abode of Lord Jagannath. I prefer the troll spokie Sambit over serious politician Sambit.

I think he has done his duty as troll-e-Sambit, this is more or less a promotion. Hopefully, he is leaving some gyan to the next set of spokies. Can't stand rest of the bumbling idiots. 

Rule of thumb for BJP spokies - Only debate on rstv, lstv and dd. Rest of the channels are for you to troll the opposition and media. 

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Pappu having a backup plan is good news for Irani. Everyone knows that hundreds of crores were dumped in Amethi last time to secure Pappu's victory. Unfortunately, Sanghis control the state police this time, so opportunities for voter bribery are limited. 

Edited by surajmal

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56 minutes ago, surajmal said:

Pappu having a backup plan is good news from Irani. Everyone knows that hundreds of crores were dumped in Amethi last time to secure Pappu's victory. Unfortunately, Sanghis control the state police this time, so opportunities  for voter bribery are limited. 

 

can pay money  through paytm this time :phehe: 

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I sense major surprise in Bengal. TMC will still be dominant but BJP should get double digit seats for the first time ever, many Hindu communists have migrated to BJP camp and there is genuine sense of fear on the ground. 7 phases means security will be more watertight, hope they liberally fire at the TMC gundas in case of booth capturing or bomb blasts. 

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https://twitter.com/ShrrinG/status/1109442671444193280

D2WHpAnWkAAZ0Se.jpg

After all the professional and famous twitter pollsters went wrong during the last batch of state elections, I am not so sure if this is accurate but I shared it regardless. A bit hard to believe that BJP will again get simple majority by themselves. 0 in Kerala would be a big disappointmnet but 11 in WB would be quite an achievement. 12 in Odisha is also huge

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1 hour ago, Moochad said:

https://twitter.com/ShrrinG/status/1109442671444193280

D2WHpAnWkAAZ0Se.jpg

After all the professional and famous twitter pollsters went wrong during the last batch of state elections, I am not so sure if this is accurate but I shared it regardless. A bit hard to believe that BJP will again get simple majority by themselves. 0 in Kerala would be a big disappointmnet but 11 in WB would be quite an achievement. 12 in Odisha is also huge

Modi might contest from kolkata or somewhere in bengal 

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8 hours ago, FischerTal said:

Modi might contest from kolkata or somewhere in bengal 

I have seen that he will maybe contest from South Bangalore or maybe somewhere from Telangana. 

 

Any of those 3 would make sense. BJP views Bengal and Telangana as ripe areas for growth in the near future, so maybe Namo can push them to some breaktrhough there. South Bangalore would be a big deal as Karnataka is one of the states where Cong has a strong presence this coming election. If he makes a wave there, Cong will be in dire straights. 

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the entire narrative presented by opposition lacks merit. even if i want to vote for someone besides current govt opposition is yet to give me a reason. What i hear is GST has destroyed business, fine , dear Rahul please tell me what is your plan ? are you saying if you become PM will we go back to pre GST era which everyone knows is not possible ? 

Everyone in opposition is worried about farmers and unemployment. please tell me how are you planning to solve it ? usual answer is we will set higher msp. only god know where they will get money from ? by scrapping 6k scheme ?

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Once NDA wins the election, hope Modi goes after the fifth column in the country. I don't want it to make national news, just send hit squads and quietly eliminate the sleeper cells and ISI/China/West paid stooges setting up shop across India. Recent events have exposed our enemy within and surely they must be in the radar of agencies. Before they can brainwash/recruit/instigate others to their cause eliminate them. Sooner or later a civil war is coming and we must all be prepared for it.....we can't escape, can't hide, can't negotiate. Survival of India is at stake now. 

Edited by Gollum

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On 3/23/2019 at 4:28 AM, Gollum said:

Sambit Patra to contest from Puri, the abode of Lord Jagannath. I prefer the troll spokie Sambit over serious politician Sambit.

He deserves it wholeheartedly. He participated well in many biased debates in a 1 vs 4 format , and so his calmness, humor and analytical skills made him so famous

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23 hours ago, Gollum said:

I sense major surprise in Bengal. TMC will still be dominant but BJP should get double digit seats for the first time ever, many Hindu communists have migrated to BJP camp and there is genuine sense of fear on the ground. 7 phases means security will be more watertight, hope they liberally fire at the TMC gundas in case of booth capturing or bomb blasts. 

BJP would get max 2 seats imo. Where ever BJP has any chances, there will be complete consolidation of minority votes, so for BJP to win any single seat , they really need around 50% vote share. And the darjeeling seat is already lost without the local party support.

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On 3/22/2019 at 6:15 PM, G_B_ said:

huge fund raiser for bjp in mumbai

Can it match out EPS OPS fund ?:laugh1:

Apparently EPS gave 500c for BJP as reimbursements on election expenses. CPR doens't have to spend a single penny in Coimbatore as people started celebrating with fireworks when DMK alloted commies here. :giggle: 

PR Natarajan is a good guy but people won't vote. 

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14 minutes ago, Detonator said:

Can it match out EPS OPS fund ?:laugh1:

Apparently EPS gave 500c for BJP as reimbursements on election expenses. CPR doens't have to spend a single penny in Coimbatore as people started celebrating with fireworks when DMK alloted commies here. :giggle: 

PR Natarajan is a good guy but people won't vote. 

 

dmk written off kongu belt .. 

mdmk wont win in erode as well .. 

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Trinamool MP Abhishek Banerjee’s wife caught in row, Customs files complaint against police

The airport Customs had filed a complaint on Friday against the West Bengal Police for alleged intervention after Banerjee’s wife Rujira Naroola was held for allegedly carrying excess gold without declaration on the intervening night of March 15-16.

LINK

 

Mamata's nephew->Abhishek Banerjee

His wife smuggled in 2 kg gold from Thailand to Kolkata. Customs caught her, she threatened and assaulted them. Then the brave Kolkata police came in and took her side, assaulted the customs officials, escorted the lady thief out of the airport. 

Joy Bangla and Maa Mati Manush, long live dynasty politics !!!!

 

The nephew will stand in the LS elections from Diamond Harbour. 

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5 minutes ago, surajmal said:

Sootiya Hindus got a reason to vote congress now - promise of free money. Lets see if Namo has got any arrows left in the quiver as its going to be tough from here to squash this bold faced lie down.  

How can people even fall for these blatant lies in this age? Before every election Congress pulls off such gimmicks, time tested method on their part. 

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9 minutes ago, Gollum said:

How can people even fall for these blatant lies in this age? Before every election Congress pulls off such gimmicks, time tested method on their part. 

Ask the MPites and rajasthanis, whats the progress on loan waivers. BTW, 7.2 trillion rupees (more than the defence budget). Thats the cost of this promise on the taxpayer. 

Edited by surajmal

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It's a travesty that Karti Chidambaram get's a ticket from Sivakasi...Cong gets to continue the dynasty & also rub it in the face of CBI for Aircel maxis corruption.. and the lemurians are busy opposing Modi

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1 hour ago, diga said:

It's a travesty that Karti Chidambaram get's a ticket from Sivakasi...Cong gets to continue the dynasty & also rub it in the face of CBI for Aircel maxis corruption.. and the lemurians are busy opposing Modi

Sudarshan Nachiyar from congress is openly attacking Karthi now, he says they will only steal and run to courts. H Raja might actually have a chance now 

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19 hours ago, velu said:

 

dmk written off kongu belt .. 

mdmk wont win in erode as well .. 

Does Dindigul count as Kongu belt? Because DMK is winning comfortably there. 

Where is slickr, BjP now has a golden opportunity to win in Thiruvananthapuram 

 

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Where the report card of Rahul? The only party thats presenting a report card is BJP. Similarly BSP, SP, RJD, JDS have no report card, can only talk about Modi, caste and minority. The entire opposition can be described in those 3 words.

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1 hour ago, Detonator said:

Does Dindigul count as Kongu belt? Because DMK is winning comfortably there. 

Where is slickr, BjP now has a golden opportunity to win in Thiruvananthapuram 

 

 

maybe we can include ottanchatiram in kongu belt, but not dindugal  .. 

Edited by velu

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1 hour ago, Turning_track said:

NC & PDP not fielding their candidates in Jammu & Udhampur, they'd let Congress to face BJP in these constituencies. Such brotherly love amongst these parties just like when SP/BSP vacate Amethi & Raibareli for the Gandhi family.
 

Thats the future. The minority consolidation will make the 65% majority irrelevant. 

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19 minutes ago, someone said:

Thats the future. The minority consolidation will make the 65% majority irrelevant. 

The BJP should kiss goodbye to the so called minority votes which is somewhere around 30-40 percent in these constituencies & as we've learnt in the past if Hindu votes are split up then it is advantage to Congress.

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