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sarchasm

"We continue to control the escalation ladder"

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These were the precise words uttered by DG ISPR in the first presser after IAF jets bombed Balakot in KPK province of Pakistan. But what does it mean?

 

This is simple enough. Pakistan believes they will *always* be the one who choose when and how to escalate a conflict with India, and that India would *always* be playing catch up. In other other words, India's response limit would always be in-step with Pakistan, and never go above. For example, if Pakistan ratchets up LoC firing, then India will *only* reply with firing across the LoC as well. Another example, India will never retaliate with a military strike in response to a terror attack.

 

But why did the DG ISPR thought it fit to make this remark when his job was to explain how IAF jets came and left unscathed in a heavily defended territory?

 

Because IAF's raid in Balakot punctured the long held delusion of Pakistani military. Please note that this was a delusion that was affirmed by our inaction in the aftermath of several outrageous terror attacks, most notably the 26/11.

 

These two questions above should give us a clue about how things will unravel in the days to come. But there are a few more questions we need to look at.


In the same press conference as mentioned above, Pakistani DG ISPR threatened, "we'll surprise you". And, "we'll respond at a place and time of our own choosing". So, can we say conclusively they have got control of the escalatory ladder? Are they dominating it?


Unlike the PAF that was either asleep or cowering in fear when IAF went deep inside their territory, the IAF jets repulsed the Pakistani attack. It's obvious by now that the dogfight between the IAF jets and enemy's jets took place near the LoC and mostly the PoK. There's been no word from DG ISPR how this event came to be, they have not spelled out why their jets were within 10 KM of the LoC.

 

Now this is where it gets really, really interesting. They can either admit they were on an aggressor mission within India or claim that it was Indian jets intruding their airspace again. If it's the latter, then how are they ever going to explain how they retain the dominance of this escalatory ladder without attacking India again?

 

On the other hand, Indian MoD's press release categorically says they treat this as Pakistani attack as an attack on our military installations. Why would India make this claim if they do not want punitive strikes on pakistan again?

 

Some additional facts that many might have not noticed in the face of first rate Pakistani propaganda.

 

1. Pakistani airspace continue to be shut down without  Indian armed forced having mobilized itself.

 

2. It's now confirmed the Pakistani jet shot down was F-16 that procured by them from Jordan.

 

3. Anticipating today's presser by Indian service chiefs, Pakistani have released WingCom Abhinandan.

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Indian political leadership's *only* goal right now is to disabuse Pakistan of this delusion that they can ever have *any* control over the escalation ladder. It will *always* be India who decides how far this game will go. Every other result will flow from there as a natural consequence.

Edited by sarchasm

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Pak knows it cannot beat Ind in a conventional war. So have invested in nuclear and unconventional domains .... They use terrorists to hurt Ind and talk about nukes so Ind does not harm them 

 

However, there exists a space of conventional limited war, which Pak has miscalculated. And Ind should leverage on this to make Pak goals unsustainable 

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10 minutes ago, zen said:

Pak knows it cannot beat Ind in a conventional war. So have invested in nuclear and unconventional domains .... They use terrorists to hurt Ind and talk about nukes so Ind does not harm them 

 

However, there exists a space of conventional limited war, which Pak has miscalculated. And Ind should leverage on this to make Pak goals unsustainable 

India won't get a better opportunity to show up Pakistani nuclear blackmail for the shitshow it is. Expose the Pakistani armed forces for cowards they are before their own public and we'd have peace on our own terms.

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6 minutes ago, sarchasm said:

Remember this, everyone.

 

Pakistan officially claimed F-16 was NOT used. India have found wreckage of American A2A missile that took out our Mig-21 that only F-16 could have fired.

 

Remember the lies.

There should be a separate thread listing out Pakistani lies.

These scum are the worst .

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 Pak  cannot sustain on this current lockdown, situation. their economy is already bankrupt and they are waiting for alms,

 

India can just keep them lockedup without actually firing a bullet can cripple them and bring them to their knees. May not be as glamorous as killing and bombing but that should be the strategy.

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I'd feel massively let down if this is where it ends.

 

It's not that I doubt pakistanis have been taught a lesson. They have. But that MoD have claimed the attack by Pakistani was at a military installation - a brigade HQ and a fuel/ammo dump. This is what Pakistani DG ISPR claimed when he says they'd retain dominance of escalatory ladder.

 

By not acting on this misadventure by PAF, Modi would simply hand the narrative back to the enemy. In simple words, Modi accepts pakistanis would control how far the escalation would go. Not India.

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1 minute ago, zen said:

I am for a limited war in Kashmir, where the soilders and citizens are getting killed on regular basis whether due to firing on LoC or terrorist attacks :hitler:

That's the kind of language Pakistani want to see. You say 'limited in kashmir' so that they can threaten India that it won't be limited. Let the war not be limited, let it escalate as far as it can. The Pakistani *will* squeal. They already have and their population has lesser appetite for war than ours.

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20 minutes ago, maniac said:

 Pak  cannot sustain on this current lockdown, situation. their economy is already bankrupt and they are waiting for alms,

 

India can just keep them lockedup without actually firing a bullet can cripple them and bring them to their knees. May not be as glamorous as killing and bombing but that should be the strategy.

That appears to be the strategy, but needs to be believable.  Right now, I am seeing clear signs of de-escalation, or a pause in escalation by India.  Not ideal if you want to keep the pressure ratcheted up.  I think this round of confrontation is largely over, and will taper out.  Question remains whether we are able to extract further concessions from pak - further action against terror groups and JeM.  I remain skeptical and pessimistic on this front. 

 

Overall, we have succesfully achieved a re-jig of the default paradigm, demonstrated a willingness to execute punitive consequences using conventional arms, i.e. calling the nuclear bluff.  Major victory when the entire world refused to condemn violation of Pak sovereignty.  

On the con side, Pak got lucky with the winds pushing the parachute out, played the PR game well on their side so far.  Unfortunately PakMil has redeemed itself in the eyes of its public, even though substantively they haven't really achieved much.  That is not a positive in terms of the longterm expectations of developing peace.  

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1 minute ago, sarchasm said:

That's the kind of language Pakistani want to see. You say 'limited in kashmir' so that they can threaten India that it won't be limited. Let the war not be limited, let it escalate as far as it can. The Pakistani *will* squeal. They already have and their population has lesser appetite for war than ours.

I m talking from operational perspective .... it can be labelled whatever one wants and taken to whatever front required 

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1 hour ago, sarchasm said:

Indian MoD's press release categorically says they treat this as Pakistani attack as an attack on our military installations. Why would India make this claim if they do not want punitive strikes on pakistan again?

If Ind wanted to execute further strikes, they would have done so already.  I think Ind is going to extended high alert mode to increase economic costs on Pakistan.  Further kinetic action unlikely.  

 

The general stereotype around the 2 forces still sort of hold true.  Any action taken by IndMil is usually deliberate, sort of slow-and-steady, waiting for time and place of choosing, maximize surprise, maximize balance of forces to maintain overwhelming superiority, minimizing casualty risk etc.  While PakMil continues to demonstrate its capacity to operate with higher risk, prioritize tactical responses over long-term strategy.  

 

But still, at a minimum, India has thrown a giant wrench into their operating assumptions.  Remains to be seen how it plays out from here on.  But the 'conflict' is over, for all intents and purposes.  


Time to wrap it up.  Even jingoistic Indian reporters have recognized this.  

 

 

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14 minutes ago, zen said:

I m talking from operational perspective .... it can be labelled whatever one wants and taken to whatever front required 

India has been operationally heating up the LOC for almost 2 years now.  We have dominated the LOC reciprocal post firing exchanges, initiating it often.  The theory is to make Pakistan pay a cost for continuing infiltration etc.  The Balakot strike is simply an extension of the same strategic approach.  The signalling is consistent - no more business as usual - costs for PakMil will continue to escalate until it changes its non-state actor policy.  No talks either.    Let them notch up some short term PR wins and all that.  Reality is that continued tensions are more unaffordable for their economy than ours.  Regardless of whether it involves actual military deployment and conflict or not.  

 

We are going to keep the costs high, and raise them if terror attacks take place.   The message is clear and is being delivered in the language that PakMil understands.  And I'm quite confident that they understand it quite well.  

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I believe social media played a huge role in the release of Wing Commander Abhinanadan. Geneva convention was formed in 1949 and we all know what was done with our Kargil prisoners of war, at that time media was not quick. 

 

But now, with social media we have seen the true nature of our foes, even the liberals from whom we thought would receive support during such hard times but did otherwise.

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27 minutes ago, sandeep said:

That appears to be the strategy, but needs to be believable.  Right now, I am seeing clear signs of de-escalation, or a pause in escalation by India.  Not ideal if you want to keep the pressure ratcheted up.  I think this round of confrontation is largely over, and will taper out.  Question remains whether we are able to extract further concessions from pak - further action against terror groups and JeM.  I remain skeptical and pessimistic on this front. 

 

Overall, we have succesfully achieved a re-jig of the default paradigm, demonstrated a willingness to execute punitive consequences using conventional arms, i.e. calling the nuclear bluff.  Major victory when the entire world refused to condemn violation of Pak sovereignty.  

On the con side, Pak got lucky with the winds pushing the parachute out, played the PR game well on their side so far.  Unfortunately PakMil has redeemed itself in the eyes of its public, even though substantively they haven't really achieved much.  That is not a positive in terms of the longterm expectations of developing peace.  

Temporary pause till we get Abhinandan back is fine. However Pause should not equate to switching off the engine, we still need to keep them on their toes.

 

As the army made it clear returning the soldier is just keeping to the accords of geneva convention and not some big hearted gesture. May be by Pak standards obeying an international law for once is seen as a huge progress.

 

Anyways listen to @KeyboardWarrior 's classmate from defense studies degree, loons like this are plenty there.

 

 

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1 hour ago, sarchasm said:

Remember this, everyone.

 

Pakistan officially claimed F-16 was NOT used. India have found wreckage of American A2A missile that took out our Mig-21 that only F-16 could have fired.

 

Remember the lies.

And the initial reaction from them was two IAF pilots are down, in the sense of bravado they mistook initial reports on PAF pilots as IAF. So a PAF pilot or two went down.

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2 minutes ago, sandeep said:

This joker is old news.  His Ghazwa circus was funny a few years ago.  Now its just boring.

I just went through some of this tweets.That SU-30 argument our Hoorwarrior was using was posted on his twitter as well. might be funny or irrelevant to us, but this is how most pakistanis are. delusional.

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2 minutes ago, Vilander said:

And the initial reaction from them was two IAF pilots are down, in the sense of bravado they mistook initial reports on PAF pilots as IAF. So a PAF pilot or two went down.

It wasn't a mistake, they knew that multiple chutes were deployed and captured on video.  They needed to put out misinformation to prevent questions among their natives about their losses.  You guys are not grasping the fundamental disconnect here. Pakistani propaganda's purpose isn't to fool the world or India, it is to fool their own awaam. Rest is bonus if it works.  

 

See how quickly the dominant conversation amongst greenbros changed from - our sovereignty was violated - to - we gave India a response, captured a pilot - only crows and trees etc.  The desire to maintain an illusion of supremacy is so desperate that straws that are given to that population will be eagerly grasped and bullshit will be swallowed down happily.  

 

Follow this up with unnecessary alerts to create a mahaoul  of crisis - Blackouts in Karachi, Peshawar etc, rollout some tanks in cities like Sialkot.  Get the public feeling anxious - it will naturally lead to circling of wagons, united against the enemy etc.  Nobody is going to ask Pakistan army how is it that after Pulwama, knowing that India was planning on responding, that IAF could succesfully invade, target and bomb Pakistan, not just Kashmir - but actual Pakistan proper.  The focus is now on trees, Wing Commander Abhinandan, and selfies with the scraps of the Mig.  

 

To be fair, media circus and propaganda is on our side as well, in ample quantities.  

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36 minutes ago, sandeep said:

The general stereotype around the 2 forces still sort of hold true.  Any action taken by IndMil is usually deliberate, sort of slow-and-steady, waiting for time and place of choosing, maximize surprise, maximize balance of forces to maintain overwhelming superiority, minimizing casualty risk etc.  While PakMil continues to demonstrate its capacity to operate with higher risk, prioritize tactical responses over long-term strategy.

its partly because of their people. They are showing some small clips where alleged POK residents are shown showering flower petals on an army jeep and are playing patriotic songs from 1965 war ( which apparently they won :) ).  Very emotional people. They are talking about being united and being behind army and being very happy because their air force brought down multiple iaf jets and got multiple pilots lol.  

 

 

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Just now, sandeep said:

It wasn't a mistake, they knew that multiple chutes were deployed and captured on video.  They needed to put out misinformation to prevent questions among their natives about their losses.  You guys are not grasping the fundamental disconnect here. Pakistani propaganda's purpose isn't to fool the world or India, it is to fool their own awaam. Rest is bonus if it works.  

 

See how quickly the dominant conversation amongst greenbros changed from - our sovereignty was violated - to - we gave India a response, captured a pilot - only crows and trees etc.  The desire to maintain an illusion of supremacy is so desperate that straws that are given to that population will be eagerly grasped and bullshit will be swallowed down happily.  

 

Follow this up with unnecessary alerts to create a mahaoul  of crisis - Blackouts in Karachi, Peshawar etc, rollout some tanks in cities like Sialkot.  Get the public feeling anxious - it will naturally lead to circling of wagons, united against the enemy etc.  Nobody is going to ask Pakistan army how is it that after Pulwama, knowing that India was planning on responding, that IAF could succesfully invade, target and bomb Pakistan, not just Kashmir - but actual Pakistan proper.  The focus is now on trees, Wing Commander Abhinandan, and selfies with the scraps of the Mig.  

 

To be fair, media circus and propaganda is on our side as well, in ample quantities.  

The focus should have been on Mehbooba,Kashmiri fundamentalists and our very own historical mistakes in the constitution. However that went into the background with the whole focus shifted to war.

 

Now I have seen that the Mehbooba Aap ki Adalat episode and other statements pushed to the background.

 

We need a lot of house cleaning. Even let us say if we break Pakistan into 4 pieces,that will still be only say 60%-70%  of the problem solved.

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At least initially it seems they thought the 2nd pilot was a second Indian. Apparently the 2nd pilot was more injured and then beaten by the civilians, like Abhinandan was, but ended up succumbing to injuries. They only found out the 2nd pilot was one of there's after they had already made a statement that they had two Indian pilots. 

 

They may have beat their own pilot to death.  

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2 minutes ago, sandeep said:

 

Well sorry to disappoint, but the show's over.

I am not, I did point out a couple of times already that it looks like the original intention was to finish this initiative after the initial bombing of JeM.

 

Don't think a large scale operation was ever on the cards.

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7 minutes ago, sandeep said:

 

Well sorry to disappoint, but the show's over.

Yes, but at least we showed that we don't believe in dossier diplomacy any more. With proof, we are capable of striking as one of the options for retaliation on any terrorist strike which their terrorists own up. This is a tectonic shift in the policy. 

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42 minutes ago, sandeep said:

India has been operationally heating up the LOC for almost 2 years now.  We have dominated the LOC reciprocal post firing exchanges, initiating it often.  The theory is to make Pakistan pay a cost for continuing infiltration etc.  The Balakot strike is simply an extension of the same strategic approach.  The signalling is consistent - no more business as usual - costs for PakMil will continue to escalate until it changes its non-state actor policy.  No talks either.    Let them notch up some short term PR wins and all that.  Reality is that continued tensions are more unaffordable for their economy than ours.  Regardless of whether it involves actual military deployment and conflict or not.  

 

We are going to keep the costs high, and raise them if terror attacks take place.   The message is clear and is being delivered in the language that PakMil understands.  And I'm quite confident that they understand it quite well.  

That is good for people who think they can teach Pakistan lessons .... As they say, Pakistan Army is the one with the country and not the other way. Only way for it to have influence (rule) in Pak is by continuing to project Ind as a threat 

 

Pak Army is using Kashmiris and India for its benefits 

 

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Moochad said:

At least initially it seems they thought the 2nd pilot was a second Indian. Apparently the 2nd pilot was more injured and then beaten by the civilians, like Abhinandan was, but ended up succumbing to injuries. They only found out the 2nd pilot was one of there's after they had already made a statement that they had two Indian pilots. 

 

They may have beat their own pilot to death.  

Unlikely.  Don't let your wishes get ahead of logic.  

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3 minutes ago, zen said:

That is good for people who think they can teach Pakistan lessons .... As they say, Pakistan Army is the one with the country and not the other way. Only way for it to have influence (rule) in Pak is by continuing to project Ind as a threat 

 

Pak Army is using Kashmiris and India for its benefits 

 

 

 

 

But that's OK.  Blunt reality is that its good for India if Pakistan is dominated by their military and continues to waste money on arms and its "defence housing society" builder mafia.  If Pakistan actually stops stabbing its own stomach, and gets its act together, gets democratic, concentrates on getting its economy in good shape - they would potentially be a more challenging competitor.  And potentially be able to put more pressure on India in the JK dispute.  

 

Yes, we are paying a high cost in terror attacks, military costs etc.  

 

 

There are no secular Kashmiri secessionists -  Almost 100% of them dislike India because they don't want to live under "non islamic" rule.  Such delusions are never going to become reality.  So let such genetically flawed population subsets waste their lives.  Over the longterm, natural selection will take care of the population.  Those with common sense, will live and thrive.  Fools will die out.  Quickly or of natural causes.  

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12 minutes ago, sandeep said:

But that's OK.  Blunt reality is that its good for India if Pakistan is dominated by their military and continues to waste money on arms and its "defence housing society" builder mafia.  If Pakistan actually stops stabbing its own stomach, and gets its act together, gets democratic, concentrates on getting its economy in good shape - they would potentially be a more challenging competitor.  And potentially be able to put more pressure on India in the JK dispute.  

 

Yes, we are paying a high cost in terror attacks, military costs etc.  

 

 

There are no secular Kashmiri secessionists -  Almost 100% of them dislike India because they don't want to live under "non islamic" rule.  Such delusions are never going to become reality.  So let such genetically flawed population subsets waste their lives.  Over the longterm, natural selection will take care of the population.  Those with common sense, will live and thrive.  Fools will die out.  Quickly or of natural causes.  

Pak Army is much smarter than that though. They have realized that Ind cannot be beaten in a conventional way so have moved to a two pronged strategy -> Nukes and Unconventional (terrorism) .... They attack Ind through terrorists. And then threaten Ind with nukes .... They can be put under pressure by going the conventional route, which crashes their plans .... Not to forget that they don't mind dealing in drugs too to finance their operations 

 

Israel has more supporters than India can ever hope for. Even it has to stand up for itself and fight 

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1 minute ago, zen said:

Pak Army is much smarter than that though. They have realized that Ind cannot be beaten in a conventional way so have moved to a two pronged strategy -> Nukes and Unconventional (terrorism) .... They attack Ind through terrorists. And then threaten Ind with nukes .... They can be put under pressure by going the conventional route, which crashes their plans .... Not to forget that they don't mind dealing in drugs too to finance their operations 

 

Israel has more supporters than India can ever hope for. Even it has to stand up for itself and fight 

That is because of Jewish lobby.Most big shots in US are Jewish people. While India has a significant lobbying in the US when compared to Pakistan, I am not sure how much the Indian CEO's and other powerful men/women lobby for India.

 

For example From what I know a Jewish guy gets property in Israel and treated as a citizen there so he would have  deep roots with Israel and bias to them but say someone like Bobby Jindal or Nikki Haley like to be church going whites. Forget them,don't think even Nadella,Nooyi or Pichai do much lobbying

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4 hours ago, sarchasm said:

Remember this, everyone.

Pakistan officially claimed F-16 was NOT used. India have found wreckage of American A2A missile that took out our Mig-21 that only F-16 could have fired.

Remember the lies.

The biggest Pakistani lie was about the bombs not hitting the Balakot JeM camps.

Being an absolute novice in military matters, even I can smell a fish here. If we didn't exterminate Masood Azhar's kin, why do the Pakistanis not have them give press conferences or 'leak' videos/audios of their well being on channels frequented by the jihadi circuit.

Edited by Mariyam

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1 minute ago, Mariyam said:

The biggest Pakistani lie was about the bombs not hitting the Balakot JeM camps.

Being an absolute novice in military matters, even I can smell a fish here. If we didn't exterminate Masood Azhar's kin, why do the Pakistanis not have them give press conferences or 'leak' videos/audios of their well being on channels frequented by the jihadi circuit.

Mirage 2000H upgrade version has laser guided bombing system. Also the precission factor of Mirage strike is good enough for targetting a big structure.

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1 minute ago, Mariyam said:

The biggest Pakistani lie was about the bombs not hitting the Balakot JeM camps.

Being an absolute novice in military matters, even I can smell a fish here. If we didn't exterminate Masood Azhar's kin, why do the Pakistanis not have them give press conferences or 'leak' videos/audios of their well being on channels frequented by the Jihadi circuit.

Pretty much. I am as illiterate in matters of military as you but have watched official Pakistani responses carefully. The lies and contradictions are staggering.

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My layman's guess is we have not seen the last of this episode. The denouement is yet to take place. It simply cannot be that release of our officer, whom they captured during an illegal sneak attack, can be the basis of de-escalation. I don't see either the political or the military leadership accepting it.

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8 minutes ago, sarchasm said:

My layman's guess is we have not seen the last of this episode. The denouement is yet to take place. It simply cannot be that release of our officer, whom they captured during an illegal sneak attack, can be the basis of de-escalation. I don't see either the political or the military leadership accepting it.

Like it or not, things are done for now.  Apparently India was going to escalate with a follow-up missile strike yesterday but it was called off.  The window for follow-up response was short, and it has passed.  Focus now shifts to what actions if any, Pak will take on the terrorism issue.  I'm not hopeful.  

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30 minutes ago, Mariyam said:

The biggest Pakistani lie was about the bombs not hitting the Balakot JeM camps.

Being an absolute novice in military matters, even I can smell a fish here. If we didn't exterminate Masood Azhar's kin, why do the Pakistanis not have them give press conferences or 'leak' videos/audios of their well being on channels frequented by the jihadi circuit.

Masood Azhar has already released a couple of audio clips.  Sounded quite pissed off.  

 

Edit: Its available on twitter, may not be in India, I heard it yesterday, will try to find the link.

Edited by sandeep

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11 hours ago, sarchasm said:

I'd feel massively let down if this is where it ends.

 

It's not that I doubt pakistanis have been taught a lesson. They have. But that MoD have claimed the attack by Pakistani was at a military installation - a brigade HQ and a fuel/ammo dump. This is what Pakistani DG ISPR claimed when he says they'd retain dominance of escalatory ladder.

 

By not acting on this misadventure by PAF, Modi would simply hand the narrative back to the enemy. In simple words, Modi accepts pakistanis would control how far the escalation would go. Not India.

Gen. Bikram Singh hopes and doesn't think it will be over so soon, in this interview with Radia-active Woman

 

 

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13 hours ago, sandeep said:

 

See how quickly the dominant conversation amongst greenbros changed from - our sovereignty was violated - to - we gave India a response, captured a pilot - only crows and trees etc.  The desire to maintain an illusion of supremacy is so desperate that straws that are given to that population will be eagerly grasped and bullshit will be swallowed down happily.

:hysterical:

Edited by Real McCoy

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13 hours ago, Moochad said:

At least initially it seems they thought the 2nd pilot was a second Indian. Apparently the 2nd pilot was more injured and then beaten by the civilians, like Abhinandan was, but ended up succumbing to injuries. They only found out the 2nd pilot was one of there's after they had already made a statement that they had two Indian pilots. 

 

They may have beat their own pilot to death.  

 

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We have made bunkers in Jammu area in many houses or community bunkers for villages. How the hell previos government has thought that villagers will survive in event of regular mortar shelling?

 

Casualities of civilians is casuality too

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