WC19: Challenges in the 1st 3 games

[zen]

As I have said, if Ind struggles in its first 3 games, it could be practically out of the tourney. Below are the first 3 games: 

 

• 06/05 vs SA at Southhampton 
• 06/09 vs Aus at London 
• 06/13 vs NZ at Nottingham 

 

Challenges: 

 

• Batting

a) Openers: A risk of openers, who are past their best, not doing well against high-quality and intensity pace attacks. And these 3 are great fielding sides too so half chances could be taken   

b) #4: Shankar. And then we would have someone like Shankar, who can implode under pressure, at 4

c) Dhoni 

 

Additionally, these teams would have played a few matches in the WC already. NZ would be playing us after matches against 3 sub-con teams. If we are chasing 300+, which means that bowling would not have clicked, it could get difficult 

 

What are the conditions going to be in early to mid June? Should India bat first to bat with relatively less pressure, and then let bowling, which is a strength relatively speaking, try to impact the game?  

[Nikola]

I think it's been long we have faced aus in league stages? probably back in 2003 i assume but yeah it's gonna be tough time and then there might be easy games after this which won't help at playoff cause we will face superior teams again.

[zen]

9 minutes ago, Nikola said:

I think it's been long we have faced aus in league stages? probably back in 2003 i assume but yeah it's gonna be tough time and then there might be easy games after this which won't help at playoff cause we will face superior teams again.

Note that those “easy” games could be easy for other major teams as well so the focus should be on beating the top 4-5 teams or we are only competing for a top spot in the lower half of the table .... Basically, if we lose to 4 major teams (unless there is a upset by minnows), Ind is practically out at worst and NRR scenario dependent at best 

Edited April 19, 2019 by zen

[Nikola]

2 minutes ago, zen said:

Note that those “easy” games could be easy for other major teams as well so the focus should be on beating the top 4-5 teams or we are only competing for a top spot in the lower half of the table .... Basically, if we lose to 4 major teams (unless there is a upset by minnows), Ind is practically out at worst and NRR scenario dependent at best 

how many matches we have to win to qualify? 6 out of 9?

[zen]

41 minutes ago, Nikola said:

how many matches we have to win to qualify? 6 out of 9?

It would depend upon various scenarios but in general: 

 

* 7 or more wins = In 

* 5-6 wins = NRR dependent 

* 4 or less wins = Out 

[zen]

Other threats include 

 

a) The innovation that some of the SENA teams could introduce 

b) Teams like NZ drag their opponents down (so strength on paper does not matter) 

c) Shastri-Kohli-Rohit-Dhoni (TM) tend to go towards what they deem as safe, which means

• Same 11-12 will be played till they sink or swim 
• If the pitch is hard to understand, they will bowl first 
• Will pick teams that allow for multiple options so if there is spin, Kuldeep-Chahal-Jadhav contribute. If there is pace, Bumrah-Shami-Pandya would take most of the overs 
• Could lack surprise elements/innovations 

 

All this means that players will have to play at their best for India to have a good chance  

 

[sergio04]

3 hours ago, zen said:

Other threats include 

 

a) The innovation that some of the SENA teams could introduce 

b) Teams like NZ drag their opponents down (so strength on paper does not matter) 

c) Shastri-Kohli-Rohit-Dhoni (TM) tend to go towards what they deem as safe, which means

• Same 11-12 will be played till they sink or swim 
• If the pitch is hard to understand, they will bowl first 
• Will pick teams that allow for multiple options so if there is spin, Kuldeep-Chahal-Jadhav contribute. If there is pace, Bumrah-Shami-Pandya would take most of the overs 
• Could lack surprise elements/innovations 

 

All this means that players will have to play at their best for India to have a good chance  

 

why are u taking tension so much?

Even virat is not so worried about wc.

 

[sandeep]

Haven't thought of 2007 in quite some time.   

[Clarke]

Why first three ? Why not first one or two or four or five ? What's the deal with THREE???

[zen]

7 minutes ago, Clarke said:

Why first three ? Why not first one or two or four or five ? What's the deal with THREE???

Answer lies in looking at Ind’s schedule and who the major teams are in the competition 

 

If folks have to ask this, it is probably not a thread for such casual fans

[zen]

3 hours ago, sandeep said:

Haven't thought of 2007 in quite some time.   

In 2007, you can say that 1 bad game cost Ind. Here it could be worse as you would have lost a bunch of games to not qualify 

Edited April 20, 2019 by zen

[sandeep]

10 hours ago, zen said:

In 2007, you can say that 1 bad game cost Ind. Here it could be worse as you would have lost a bunch of games to not qualify 

Based on the level of competition, anything less than a finals appearance would be a bad performance by this Indian team.  8 months ago, I was certain that they would, in the worst case, at least make the semi-finals.  I still believe they can fall ass backwards into the SF, but its not as fool-proof as I thought earlier.  

[diehardpacer]

I don't see this team winning against Aussies,WI & Eng.These are batting monster houses.

SA & NZ match will be 50-50.Rest all they should win.

So,out of 9 matches,they are strong favourites in 4.Looks like NRR will come into play.They need to win as big as possible in those 4 games to avoid having to depend on other matches results.

SA,NZ & Ind will fight for 4th spot in semis.

[zen]

I would start with the following 11 in these games: 

• Top 4: Rohit, Dhawan, Kohli, and KL (the positions of some players can be swapped)
• #5: Pandya (probably the biggest game changer. gets more balls to settle in) 
• #6: Anyone from Jadhav, Shankar, DK, .... 
• #7: Dhoni 
• Spinners: Kuldeep and Chahal. If conditions demand, Bhuvi can take one of the slots 
• Pacers: Shami and Bumrah (need to focus on getting early wkts) 

[Gollum]

Great start, toughest phase of our group stage over. 

[Norman]

5 points from these 3 games. 

 

Would have taken them eyes closed at the start of the tournament.