Points Table (WC19)

[zen]

World Cup

TEAM	M	W	L	T	N/R	PT	NRR	FOR	AGAINST
1Australia	5	4	1	0	0	8	0.812	1454/234.5	1345/250.0
2New Zealand	4	3	0	0	1	7	2.163	558/95.3	552/150.0
3India	4	3	0	0	1	7	1.029	883/137.3	755/140.0
4England	4	3	1	0	0	6	1.557	1244/183.1	1047/200.0
5Bangladesh	5	2	2	0	1	5	-0.27	1176/191.3	1264/197.1
6Sri Lanka	5	1	2	0	2	4	-1.778	569/141.0	623/107.1
7West Indies	5	1	3	0	1	3	0.272	914/163.4	928/174.4
8South Africa	5	1	3	0	1	3	-0.208	874/178.4	997/195.3
9Pakistan	5	1	3	0	1	3	-1.933	931/190.0	1050/153.4
10Afghanistan	4	0	4	0	0	0	-1.638	657/189.0	699/136

 

 

With games getting abandoned due to rain and upsets being registered, teams with around 10 + higher NRR can squeeze into the top 4. If so, theoretically, even Afg can make it as it has 5 games in hand 

 

At this point, the maximum a team can get is 16-17 points. The current top 5 have a bunch of games vs. each other: 

 

• Aus has to play NZ, Eng, and BD
• NZ has games vs. Eng and Aus 
• Eng plays Aus, NZ, and Ind
• And then there is the Ind-BD game as well 

 

[goose]

We could yet see jostling for 4th place but in India's case i think it's a shame we are highly likely only two knockout games from winning it. This format is low on knockout excitement. 

[Mjcricket]

2 minutes ago, goose said:

We could yet see jostling for 4th place but in India's case i think it's a shame we are highly likely only two knockout games from winning it. This format is low on knockout excitement. 

Yes. Actually the teams who consistently win their games continue to stay at the top of the table.

[zen]

 

 

 

2

2 minutes ago, goose said:

We could yet see jostling for 4th place but in India's case i think it's a shame we are highly likely only two knockout games from winning it. This format is low on knockout excitement. 

It depends. Say Ind beats AFG, so it gets to 9 points. But then goes on to lose vs. WI, Eng, and BD. Now depending upon how things go with other teams, the SL game could become a must win to offer that "excitement"

[poi]

Simulated remaining matches' scenarios

---

First, assumed that AFG/SL/BAN will all lose against other teams:

---

Here, I only assume AFG will lose against other teams, so BAN/SL are legitimate contenders:

---

Based on what we see from BAN vs WI, perhaps we shouldn't count out BAN and SL from upsetting stronger teams.

 

Note that those %s are %s of total scenarios. Some scenarios are highly unlikely, while some scenarios are more likely. My current simulation does not utilize weights at the scenario level, so I simply sum the possible scenarios and calculate the %.

 

If we want to be fancy(and more precise), I can assign individual weights to games. For eg IND vs BAN game could be assigned to India at 90% (rather than 50% defaulted currently) and that would affect the above tables' %s.

[Zero_Unit]

^ good stuffs 

[zen]

25 minutes ago, poi said:

If we want to be fancy(and more precise), I can assign individual weights to games. For eg IND vs BAN game could be assigned to India at 90% (rather than 50% defaulted currently) and that would affect the above tables' %s.

One way to assign weights is to go by ranking where 

 

• Top 3: Aus, Eng, and Ind 
• Middle 3: BD, NZ, and WI
• Bottom 4: Afg, Pak, SA, and SL  

 

a) Games among T3, M3, and B4 are 50/50 

b) Games b/w teams from T3 and M3, and M3 and B4 are 60 for the higher ranked group, and 40 for the lower ranked group 

c) Game b/w T3 and B4 are 70/30

 

[poi]

1 hour ago, zen said:

One way to assign weights is to go by ranking where 

 

• Top 3: Aus, Eng, and Ind 
• Middle 3: BD, NZ, and WI
• Bottom 4: Afg, Pak, SA, and SL  

 

a) Games among T3, M3, and B4 are 50/50 

b) Games b/w teams from T3 and M3, and M3 and B4 are 60 for the higher ranked group, and 40 for the lower ranked group 

c) Game b/w T3 and B4 are 70/30

 

Sounds like a good idea. I will try to incorporate the weights.

[zen]

Practically, NZ would feel that they are 1 win/NR away (or 2 if NRR becomes a concern in future) from securing a semi spot 

 

World Cup

TEAM	M	W	L	T	N/R	PT	NRR	FOR	AGAINST
1New Zealand	5	4	0	0	1	9	1.591	803/144.0	793/199.0
2England	5	4	1	0	0	8	1.862	1641/233.1	1294/250.0
3Australia	5	4	1	0	0	8	0.812	1454/234.5	1345/250.0
4India	4	3	0	0	1	7	1.029	883/137.3	755/140.0
5Bangladesh	5	2	2	0	1	5	-0.27	1176/191.3	1264/197.1
6Sri Lanka	5	1	2	0	2	4	-1.778	569/141.0	623/107.1
7West Indies	5	1	3	0	1	3	0.272	914/163.4	928/174.4
8South Africa	6	1	4	0	1	3	-0.193	1115/227.4	1242/244.0
9Pakistan	5	1	3	0	1	3	-1.933	931/190.0	1050/153.4
10Afghanistan	5	0	5	0	0	0	-2.089	904/239.0

[chewy]

top 4, more or else confirmed

NZ with this win have confirmed their spot

 

Only team able to challenge is Bangladesh, from the 4 left, two are winnable for them

 

Pressure will be on Aus, especially next match vs Bangla, then their next three is Eng, NZ and SA

 

But the way results are going the final two-three group matches will end up being dead rubbers

[chewy]

World cup needed IPL style eliminator, to keep the top 2-3 interested till the end

[zen]

6 minutes ago, chewy said:

NZ with this win have confirmed their spot

Not confirmed yet as theoretically other teams can sneak in too if NZ fails to win at least 1 of its remaining games .... Needs 1 win/NR more (if not 2) to feel "secure" 

Edited June 19, 2019 by zen

[asterix]

NZ is a pretty boring team... the WC semi final involving NZ will be pretty boring...

[zen]

2 minutes ago, asterix said:

NZ is a pretty boring team... the WC semi final involving NZ will be pretty boring...

Ind is boring too for those who support other teams 

[coffee_rules]

2 minutes ago, zen said:

Ind is boring too for those who support other teams 

No as a neutral, Eng, Aus, and even WI, BD play exciting cricket. NZ and SA are boring, I find SA even more boring than NZ

 

[zen]

33 minutes ago, coffee_rules said:

No as a neutral, Eng, Aus, and even WI, BD play exciting cricket. NZ and SA are boring, I find SA even more boring than NZ

 

I only find Eng and WI's cricket exciting in general. Other teams have certain players who can entertain including NZ which has cricketers who are exciting when they get going and its fast bowling is good to watch too

Edited June 19, 2019 by zen

[Zero_Unit]

^ when on form, WI is probably the most interesting cricket team to witness. Eng of late has been fantastic. 

[Zero_Unit]

1 hour ago, zen said:

Practically, NZ would feel that they are 1 win/NR away (or 2 if NRR becomes a concern in future) from securing a semi spot 

 

World Cup

TEAM	M	W	L	T	N/R	PT	NRR	FOR	AGAINST
1New Zealand	5	4	0	0	1	9	1.591	803/144.0	793/199.0
2England	5	4	1	0	0	8	1.862	1641/233.1	1294/250.0
3Australia	5	4	1	0	0	8	0.812	1454/234.5	1345/250.0
4India	4	3	0	0	1	7	1.029	883/137.3	755/140.0
5Bangladesh	5	2	2	0	1	5	-0.27	1176/191.3	1264/197.1
6Sri Lanka	5	1	2	0	2	4	-1.778	569/141.0	623/107.1
7West Indies	5	1	3	0	1	3	0.272	914/163.4	928/174.4
8South Africa	6	1	4	0	1	3	-0.193	1115/227.4	1242/244.0
9Pakistan	5	1	3	0	1	3	-1.933	931/190.0	1050/153.4
10Afghanistan	5	0	5	0	0	0	-2.089	904/239.0

Who would have thought before the worldcup began that Bangladesh would be the one pushing for that final spot in the semifinal and batteling it out agains AUS out of all team. My money would have been on SA, heck even Pakistan. All thanks to Shakib 

[zen]

2 minutes ago, Zero_Unit said:

Who would have thought before the worldcup began that Bangladesh would be the one pushing for that final spot in the semifinal and batteling it out agains AUS out of all team. My money would have been on SA, heck even Pakistan. All thanks to Shakib 

Shakib has been brilliant so far. BD next plays Aus and Ind, who are beatable, so should remain positive 

Edited June 19, 2019 by zen

[PBN]

WC half way done and the top four are more or less sealed