Jump to content

The Indian Elections Thread


The Outsider

The Indian Elections Thread  

  1. 1.

    • BJP/NDA
      28
    • Congress/UPA
      6
    • Third Front
      0
    • Undecided
      6


Recommended Posts

Election time is drawing near - the largest electoral exercise on the planet over 6 stages starting on April 16 and ending on May 13, with the counting scheduled for May16. All political buffs keep on adding interesting news, facts, and discussions here. Things are looking pretty confusing right now, with both major parties jostling to come up with viabale coalition partners. BJP is having a specially hard time - BJD in Orissa has supposedly snapped ties from the NDA though some negotiations are still on. Chandrababu Naidu doesn't seem keen on the NDA either this time round. Shiv Sena and BJP are also at each other in Maharashtra, though that alliance is likely to hold at the end of the day. Congress is in negotiations with Samajwadi Party in UP and Trinamul Congress in West Bengal, but both Mulayam and Mamta Banerjee are not going to be easy to please. Mayawati is gearing up for the great coup in the hope of a bad verdict for the Congress and BJP and the regional parties doing well. It's going to be fun the next couple of months - lots of action, statements, promises, dirt. In the hope of a better India, I just hope it's not the splitered third front which comes to power. There is very little to choose between the BJP and Congress, but I would have BJP with a good leader as a Prime Minister to break the Congress rule and hopefully stop complacency. On the other hand, guys like Chidambaram and Manmohan Singh still have a lot to contribute and if they can break away from the high command they can genuinely do good for the country. Down with the Mayawatis, Thackrays, Lalus, and Jayalalithas of politics though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What about the elections in Jammu and Kashmir? They are going to have some too apparently.....who is standing there? I'm guessing Mirwaiz Umar Farooq and co will boycott it leaving certain others to stand?
They already had them in November-December. Omar Abdullah became the CM.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good on ya Shwetabh for opening this thread. I was about to do it myself. Most important development in the last few days; 'Third front' launched in India India's communists and several other regional parties have come together to launch a "third front" in the country's politics. The group is meant to be an alternative to the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) - the two main players in the forthcoming elections. General elections in India will be held in five phases over April and May. Polling to elect a new Lok Sabha (lower house) will run from 16 April to 13 May. Counting is due on 16 May. Nearly four million officials will conduct the elections and 714 million voters are eligible to cast ballots. The incumbent Congress party-led coalition and parties led by the Hindu nationalist BJP are the main contenders for power. 'Failed' The "third front" was launched at a massive rally in the town of Tumkur in the southern state of Karnataka. Former prime minister HD Deve Gowda, the driving force behind the new group, called upon the people to vote for a "democratic and secular" government in the elections. Speakers at the rally said both the Congress and the BJP-led alliances had failed to address people's grievances. "This is a historic get-together of all democratic, secular and Left parties in the country to declare that we are all coming together to constitute a third force in this country," Prakash Karat, leader of the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), was quoted as saying by private television channel Zee news. "Today we have come together because the country needs a new alternative." The launch was attended by senior leaders from Janata Dal (Secular) party, CPI(M), Communist Party of India (CPI), Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP), Forward Bloc (FB), Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS). Ms J Jayalalitha (leader of Tamil Nadu state's opposition AIADMK party) and Ms Mayawati (the low-caste Dalit chief minister of northern Uttar Pradesh state and leader of Bahujan Samaj Party) were represented by their emissaries at the gathering. Ms Mayawati has openly talked about her ambition to be prime minister. Analysts say the big electoral battle will be between the Congress-led coalition which currently governs India, and the main opposition alliance led by BJP. But in the last few years, the influence of smaller regional parties has been consistently growing. Observers say the two main parties realise that going it alone will not get them far and frantic negotiations have been taking place for months as different political factions manoeuvre for position. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7939276.stm ---------------- This is probably the first time in the history of coalition politics in India that a proper, structered third front has been formed BEFORE the elections itself. You see the group and you think to yourself - 'These guys could easily win between 120 - 180 seats' I predict a hung parliment in India this time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i just hope we are not held hostage by this anti-india and anti-progress third front again.too close to call but i want the BJP to win this time and hopefully they will be more forceful in implementing better security measures and not move *****foot about it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Left pulling out of the govt. midway may actually end up helping them electorally. Now, they can go back to their usual slogans of ‘Aam aadmi’ and ‘reduce fuel prices’ etc. If they were part of the central govt, it would have been harder for them to sound pro-poor. The third front has the potential to cause some major upsets. Mayawati could easily win anywhere b/w 35-45 seats in UP. ( I am assuming UP still has 85 seats. I don’t know how much Uttaranchal got since it separated). Cong is becoming increasingly unpopular in AP, so TDP could win two dozen seats there. ADMK could possibly muster anywhere b/w 15-25 seats and the Left may end up with 45-65 seats. If you add all that up, that’s a significant number. The way things are going, looks like we will have 3 major blocks of power after the elections; Cong+, BJP+ and the Third front. I still think Cong. will be the single largest alliance, but they’ll probably be well short of a majority on the floor of the house.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Left pulling out of the govt. midway may actually end up helping them electorally. Now, they can go back to their usual slogans of Ă¢â‚¬ËœAam aadmiĂ¢â‚¬â„¢ and Ă¢â‚¬Ëœreduce fuel pricesĂ¢â‚¬â„¢ etc. If they were part of the central govt, it would have been harder for them to sound pro-poor. The third front has the potential to cause some major upsets. Mayawati could easily win anywhere b/w 35-45 seats in UP. ( I am assuming UP still has 85 seats. I donĂ¢â‚¬â„¢t know how much Uttaranchal got since it separated). Cong is becoming increasingly unpopular in AP, so TDP could win two dozen seats there. ADMK could possibly muster anywhere b/w 15-25 seats and the Left may end up with 45-65 seats. If you add all that up, thatĂ¢â‚¬â„¢s a significant number. The way things are going, looks like we will have 3 major blocks of power after the elections; Cong+, BJP+ and the Third front. I still think Cong. will be the single largest alliance, but theyĂ¢â‚¬â„¢ll probably be well short of a majority on the floor of the house.
I certainly hope that neither TDP nor Congress come into power in AP. CBN is a shameless gutless spineless fool who's made a mockery of himself and all the values the party stood for when NTR was alive. All of NTR's sons and grandsons are the biggest aholes ever. To be honest, I'd rather have Chiranjeevi be elected as CM. With regards to the 3rd front, I hope they fail miserably. In Karnataka, the biggest goon of South India, Deve Gowda is the head - and if he gets any inch of power, it just means India will become hell. I kid you not. The man is a rowdy and he is incredibly selfish and has no morals/principles. His world is built around "how to make more money".
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I see three possible scenarios after the elections; 1) Cong alliance wins around 240 seats, BJP+ wins around 180 and Third front wins around 120. Cong+ forms power, with outside support from the third front. Sonia will definitely become PM because there is no other leader in Cong. for whom the third front will be willing to support. The third front will definitely be part of the govt. with probably the deputy PM, Telecommn ministry, Defence ministries going to them. PM, Home ministry and the finance ministry to stay with Cong. There has to some incentive for the third front to join the govt. They wouldn’t want all their seats to be counted for nothing. So, Cong. will dangle the carrots of some important ministries. 2) BJP+ wins around 240, Cong+ wins around 180 and third front wins around 120. Not a clear cut verdict. Impasse continues for months, President's rule imposed and elections called again after 6 months. 3) Third front wins around 180, Cong wins 160+ and BJP+ wins 120 - Third front forms power with outside support from Cong. (Cong will never share power with people whom they still consider 'outsiders'). Even if scenarios 1 or 3 transpire, its doomed to be an unstable govt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The only thing that could save our nation from a period of prolonged instability is the common hatred that Cong, Left and other third front parties have for the ‘Communal’ BJP. The hatred they have for the BPJ far outweighs the hatred they have for each other and they might be forced to come together for the sole purpose of keeping the BJP out of power. That is exactly what happened b/w 1996-99. Unfortunately, such artificial alliances not based on ideology but more on compulsion never last.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sriram, as things stand right now I don't really see scenarios 1 and 2 happening. 240 is a huge number for either the Congress or BJP alliance to rack up given the fact that both have been very ineffective in forming viable coalitions till now. My predictions as of now based on pre-poll alliances is : 1. Congress+ - 180 2. BJP+ - 160 3. Third Front - 160 At the moment it looks like we are going to get a very murky parliament - the last thing which India needs at the moment.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

who is PM Candidate for Congress? I think its Manmohan Singhji. Well thats not a good start. You never know about politics, there may be assassin of someone in Gandhi family and Rahul Gandhi gets sympathy votes (much like Narsimha Rao got after Rajiv Gandhi assassin). Politicians who have tasted power are sometimes insane people. As Sarkar would say, Kisko Marna Guna hai, Par kisi ko sahi samay pe mara "Rajniti". I hope this does not happen and we have NDA coming to power.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sriram, as things stand right now I don't really see scenarios 1 and 2 happening. 240 is a huge number for either the Congress or BJP alliance to rack up given the fact that both have been very ineffective in forming viable coalitions till now. My predictions as of now based on pre-poll alliances is : 1. Congress+ - 180 2. BJP+ - 160 3. Third Front - 160 At the moment it looks like we are going to get a very murky parliament - the last thing which India needs at the moment.
Shwetabh, its very hard to conceive three political blocs will winning equal number of seats like you have suggested, especially since its very hard for for both the Cong+ and BJP+ to win such similar number of seats. Generally the voting pattern has been slightly in favor of either alliance at all times. But, a hung parliment is probably the best thing that could happen to India. Sure, there will be some political instability and the Industry/markets wont like it, but at the least, we'll have general elections after 6 months and the prospect of a much more stable govt beyond that.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I certainly hope that neither TDP nor Congress come into power in AP. CBN is a shameless gutless spineless fool who's made a mockery of himself and all the values the party stood for when NTR was alive. All of NTR's sons and grandsons are the biggest aholes ever. To be honest, I'd rather have Chiranjeevi be elected as CM. With regards to the 3rd front, I hope they fail miserably. In Karnataka, the biggest goon of South India, Deve Gowda is the head - and if he gets any inch of power, it just means India will become hell. I kid you not. The man is a rowdy and he is incredibly selfish and has no morals/principles. His world is built around "how to make more money".
Why do you dislike Naidu so much man? And I doubt if Rajasekhara Reddy is any better than him either.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why do you dislike Naidu so much man? And I doubt if Rajasekhara Reddy is any better than him either.
Both are scum. Rajasekhar Reddy is one of the biggest corrupt politicians ever. AP is the biggest producer of rice in India. Can you believe it if I told you that because of his corruption, the rice price in AP is right now Rs. 60/kg ? During NTR's era, it was Rs. 2. And people are unable to get rice within AP itself - that too in Rayalseema ! Unbelievable. CBN backstabbed NTR, then used his image and licked boots of others to get into power, and then refused to give seats to those who helped him (KCR is one such man - another *******, btw). Now we have to deal with KCR wanting a separate Telangana. Now he's teamed up with KCR and if he wins, a separate Telangana state in the middle of AP will be formed. It makes absolutely no sense. Hyderabad would cease to be the capital. Absolutely pathetic state of affairs. Now he's using Balakrishna's filmstar image (whatever that means - that man is a ****ing shithole personality, shot 2 producers and escaped with it, defended CBN's actions against his own father, which led to NTR's death) to get votes. Who does that leave me with? Chiranjeevi.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

the rice price in AP is right now Rs. 60/kg
What? Thats impossible, unless of course you're buying top-of-the-range, genetically modified Basmati rice from an upmarket super-store or something. Where did you get that number from dude? A 60 Rs/kg rice is the Indian version of electoral suicide. No state govt. will allow that to happen, even if it means grounding their treasuries to bankruptcy by subsidizing these items (Rice, kerosene, LPG etc).
Link to comment
Share on other sites

CBN backstabbed NTR, then used his image and licked boots of others to get into power, and then refused to give seats to those who helped him (KCR is one such man - another *******, btw). Now we have to deal with KCR wanting a separate Telangana. Now he's teamed up with KCR and if he wins, a separate Telangana state in the middle of AP will be formed. It makes absolutely no sense. Hyderabad would cease to be the capital. Absolutely pathetic state of affairs.
Hahaha, I can see your love for Hyderabad and your need for it to be part of A.P coming through there. Don’t worry man, these are just mere electoral gimmicks. The TRS has been ‘campaigning’ for a separate Telangana state for years and years now, but nothing has come off it. These are just election time strategies man. All parties have a pet-political issue that they keep whipping up before every election. Once the election is over, the issue dies its own natural death. It’s a bit like the Ayodhya Mandir issue. Even Advani must have gotten bored of the Rath Yatras he must undertaken so far. Did they build the temple? Of course not. There is a very remote chance of Andhra splitting into Telangana and the rest of A.P. Even if that is going to happen, that is still years, if not decades away.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I hope BJP comes to power being lead by a sauve clean politician like Arun Jaitley and the BJP distances itself from Shiv Sena, Bajrang Dal or any "Mandir" crap but focuses itself on its strength i.e. strong discipline in administration ( the basis fro original Jan Sangh). I also hope that whoever comes to power still retains Manmomhan Singh as Finance Minister. Leftists and Communist party is a joke, clean leaders from Congress should get elected in their constituencies to do good work and most of all I hope cross-party committees are formed to address key issues facing the nation to solve them rather than constant bickering on "mandir", appeasment of minority vote, Mayawati's crap power status etc etc. The problem is that such a combination is just hope and impossible to achieve.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...