The real culprits by S Rajesh from Cricinfo

[cricajar]

India's recent batting woes stem from a failure to play on overseas tracks The real culprits S Rajesh April 4, 2007 'The best players like to measure themselves against the strongest opposition, and in Tendulkar's case the recent numbers don't stack up well at all' ? Getty Images While India's players blame their recent poor form on everything from a manipulative coach to a sense of insecurity to an indifferent captain, the plain truth is this: When it really mattered, India's batsmen failed to deliver. It's a fact that has been obscured by emotion, hype and selective memory but a reading of the statistics is revealing. First, India's overall ODI record under Greg Chappell: Played 62, won 32, lost 27. It's a fair record - more victories than defeats, a win-loss ratio (1.18) which is better than that achieved by West Indies (1), Pakistan (0.94) and England (0.65), and only marginally behind Sri Lanka (1.22). Scratch the surface, though, and some disturbing trends emerge: India won 19 out of 28 matches at home - mostly in comfortable batting conditions - but only 13 out of 34 when they travelled overseas. The win-loss ratio of 0.68 is comfortably lower than Pakistan's and England's, and only marginally better than West Indies' 0.57. That Indian batsmen flourish on the flat tracks of home is well documented, but the star-studded line-up had briefly demonstrated an ability to perform in more demanding conditions as well. That has all but disappeared in the last 21 months - the big names have appeared far too vulnerable to the merest hint of seam, swing or even spin. The analysis below brings out how the runs scored by the Indian batsmen during this period has been a function of the conditions and the strength of the opposition, not of their own form, which comes and goes depending on the might of the bowlers. For the purpose of the analysis, all the ODIs played by India during this period have been divided into two categories - the first comprises matches that were played in relatively batting-friendly conditions; and the second includes the games in which the bowlers had more say. The first category includes the following: all ODIs played in India except the Champions Trophy and the four ODIs versus South Africa in 2005-06, plus India's five-match series in Pakistan in the same season, and their World Cup game against Bermuda. These were games in which the bowling attack or the conditions or both allowed the bat to dominate. Not surprisingly, all the Indian batsmen except a couple have excellent records, with Mahendra Singh Dhoni's numbers reaching Bradmanesque proportions. Table 1: Indian batsmen in good batting conditions since Sept 2005 Batsman Innings Runs Average 100s/ 50s Mahendra Singh Dhoni 20 994 99.40 1/ 7 Sourav Ganguly 7 436 72.67 0/ 5 Yuvraj Singh 21 914 60.93 2/ 6 Rahul Dravid 23 1025 60.29 1/ 11 Sachin Tendulkar 17 771 55.07 2/ 6 Suresh Raina 10 352 50.29 0/ 3 Irfan Pathan 10 306 38.25 0/ 2 Virender Sehwag 18 562 31.22 1/ 1 Mohammad Kaif 11 88 9.78 0/ 0 The story is entirely different, though, when the batsmen have been tested a little more. The next table includes matches which have been a bigger test for batsmen - the Videocon Cup in Zimbabwe, all matches in Sri Lanka, the DLF Cup in Malaysia, and the ODIs in South Africa in West Indies. The batsman who was the most successful in these tougher games didn't even make it to the World Cup. Mohammad Kaif made unbeaten knocks of 102 and 93 against New Zealand in the Videocon Cup and was consistently among the runs in the West Indies in 2006, but a few failures thereafter pushed him out of the side. Apart from him and Yuvraj, none of the others averages even 30 in these games. Table 2: Indian batsmen under difficult conditions since Sept 2005 Batsman Innings Runs Average 100s/ 50s Mohammad Kaif 24 774 48.38 1/ 6 Yuvraj Singh 25 938 42.64 3/ 4 Rahul Dravid 36 966 29.27 1/ 8 Virender Sehwag 37 1020 28.33 0/ 5 Sachin Tendulkar 18 434 27.13 1/ 2 Mahendra Singh Dhoni 32 713 26.41 0/ 5 Sourav Ganguly 10 229 25.44 0/ 2 Irfan Pathan 22 406 21.37 0/ 2 Suresh Raina 18 260 16.25 0/ 0 The differences in batting averages between the two tables shows just how much the batsmen have been found wanting when the team's needed someone to put his hand up. Dhoni's average drops by a whopping 73 runs, while even Dravid's and Tendulkar's performances have dropped by 50%. All these numbers are of course masked when you merely look at the overall figures during this period: Dravid averages 39.82 in these 21 months, Tendulkar 40.16, Dhoni 46.13. They look like healthy numbers - and they are - till you delve deeper. Difference in averages between tables 1 & 2 Batsman Table 1 ave Table 2 ave Difference Mahendra Singh Dhoni 99.40 26.41 72.99 Sourav Ganguly 72.67 25.44 47.23 Suresh Raina 50.29 16.25 34.04 Rahul Dravid 60.29 29.27 31.02 Sachin Tendulkar 55.07 27.13 27.94 Yuvraj Singh 60.93 42.64 18.29 Irfan Pathan 38.25 21.37 16.88 Virender Sehwag 31.22 28.33 2.89 Mohammad Kaif 9.78 48.38 -38.60 Tendulkar's overall stats look impressive, but check out his recent performances against the two best sides - apart from the 55 against South Africa at Centurion, he hasn't managed a single half-century in 11 innings. The best players always like to measure themselves against the strongest opposition, and in Tendulkar's case the recent numbers don't stack up well at all. Versus Australia and South Africa, since Sept 2005 Batsman Innings Runs Average 100s/ 50s Yuvraj Singh 5 209 52.25 1/ 1 Rahul Dravid 9 248 31.00 0/ 3 Virender Sehwag 10 247 27.44 0/ 2 Irfan Pathan 8 148 21.14 0/ 0 Mohammad Kaif 8 142 20.28 0/ 0 Sachin Tendulkar 11 155 14.09 0/ 1 Through most of India's recent ODI travails, it's the less-heralded bowlers who have done well - only twice during this period have they conceded more than 300, while the average runs per over conceded is only 4.93. Twenty times they've restricted the opposition to less than five per over, but India have only managed to win 50% of those games. The batsmen have always been the ones who've been feted after most of India's ODI triumphs. It's time they took the bulk of the blame for the losses too. S Rajesh is stats editor of Cricinfo ? Cricinfo

[cricajar]

Re: The real culprits by S Rajesh from Cricinfo You know i've been supporting Tendulkar all this time, even though there has been some major Sachin hating in this forum. But numbers don't lie, and i think especially his 14.09 average against SA and Australia is just unacceptable. Um Maybe it really is time for him to go...as for Kaif and his highest average on non-batsman friendly pitches it does indicate his mental fortitude but a 9.8 average on batter friendly pitches is just too low, i'm sorry that's also unacceptable. Dhoni's averages need to be looked at as well and he definitely needs to work on his technique because its just not right that he bashes the ball in india but then disappears whne it matters abroad. Its a very good article and very telling of our reccent failures.

[apocalypse]

Re: The real culprits by S Rajesh from Cricinfo why not selection panel look at this record when they are selecting players

[apeeman]

Re: The real culprits by S Rajesh from Cricinfo I have a couple of questions in these statistics how did the author decide on "difficult vs easy" conditions. I think it is on the basis of runs made by the team collectively. If thats the case, then its no surprise that kaif and yuvraj have high avgs and sachin has low ones. The fact is that Sachin was an opener in most of these innings. As a result, he would be the player with the highest probablity of getting out in "difficult conditions." With a bad score from the top 3 or 4, kaif and yuvraj play the mending game and we end up with a 150-170 fro m a situation of say 33/4. So it is ridiculous to say difficult conditions sachin has not performed, they look difficult because no one except the lower middle order(whose job is to bat out some time and defend) perform. again, as an opener, sachin has to play agressively, which means that he has to take an attack to task. It reflects in him getting out, its like a bowler bowling in death. He can take a hatrick(L.Malinga,S.Bond) or go for lots of runs. We got to take both and treat them similarly. Second sachin's performance with respect to aussies and SA. I am not going to really defend him much because 11 failures are not the sachin we know. But some thoughts 1. In how many of these innings did he get out to peach deliveries 2. In how many of these innings did he try to play aggressively and get out hooking or cutting. 3. How many had great catches in them. the fact is , statistics can be manipulated as we wish. i could take the last 20 innings, with 5 not outs and a player's avg sky rockets. I think a lot more study is needed before commenting. But one thing i have to say, sachin can play much better than those stats tell us

[Lurker]

Re: The real culprits by S Rajesh from Cricinfo

I have a couple of questions in these statistics how did the author decide on "difficult vs easy" conditions. I think it is on the basis of runs made by the team collectively. If thats the case, then its no surprise that kaif and yuvraj have high avgs and sachin has low ones. The fact is that Sachin was an opener in most of these innings. As a result, he would be the player with the highest probablity of getting out in "difficult conditions." With a bad score from the top 3 or 4, kaif and yuvraj play the mending game and we end up with a 150-170 fro m a situation of say 33/4. So it is ridiculous to say difficult conditions sachin has not performed, they look difficult because no one except the lower middle order(whose job is to bat out some time and defend) perform. again, as an opener, sachin has to play agressively, which means that he has to take an attack to task. It reflects in him getting out, its like a bowler bowling in death. He can take a hatrick(L.Malinga,S.Bond) or go for lots of runs. We got to take both and treat them similarly. Second sachin's performance with respect to aussies and SA. I am not going to really defend him much because 11 failures are not the sachin we know. But some thoughts 1. In how many of these innings did he get out to peach deliveries 2. In how many of these innings did he try to play aggressively and get out hooking or cutting. 3. How many had great catches in them. the fact is , statistics can be manipulated as we wish. i could take the last 20 innings, with 5 not outs and a player's avg sky rockets. I think a lot more study is needed before commenting. But one thing i have to say, sachin can play much better than those stats tell us

And that in a nutshell my friends should be reason enough to realize why India has not won a WC in 24 years, and most likely wont in another 24! As a race we excel in making excuses. When we can not make them for ourselves we start making them for others too! xxx

[apeeman]

Re: The real culprits by S Rajesh from Cricinfo

I have a couple of questions in these statistics how did the author decide on "difficult vs easy" conditions. I think it is on the basis of runs made by the team collectively. If thats the case, then its no surprise that kaif and yuvraj have high avgs and sachin has low ones. The fact is that Sachin was an opener in most of these innings. As a result, he would be the player with the highest probablity of getting out in "difficult conditions." With a bad score from the top 3 or 4, kaif and yuvraj play the mending game and we end up with a 150-170 fro m a situation of say 33/4. So it is ridiculous to say difficult conditions sachin has not performed, they look difficult because no one except the lower middle order(whose job is to bat out some time and defend) perform. again, as an opener, sachin has to play agressively, which means that he has to take an attack to task. It reflects in him getting out, its like a bowler bowling in death. He can take a hatrick(L.Malinga,S.Bond) or go for lots of runs. We got to take both and treat them similarly. Second sachin's performance with respect to aussies and SA. I am not going to really defend him much because 11 failures are not the sachin we know. But some thoughts 1. In how many of these innings did he get out to peach deliveries 2. In how many of these innings did he try to play aggressively and get out hooking or cutting. 3. How many had great catches in them. the fact is , statistics can be manipulated as we wish. i could take the last 20 innings, with 5 not outs and a player's avg sky rockets. I think a lot more study is needed before commenting. But one thing i have to say, sachin can play much better than those stats tell us

And that in a nutshell my friends should be reason enough to realize why India has not won a WC in 24 years, and most likely wont in another 24! As a race we excel in making excuses. When we can not make them for ourselves we start making them for others too! *****

:wall: :wall: :wall: its your perception mate. Each one is entitled to his view. Aussies came up with excuses when the lost 6 games in a row. Why should another perception to statistics be looked at , as excuses

[cricajar]

Re: The real culprits by S Rajesh from Cricinfo The aussies lost 6 in a row when they were missing half their team! They were missing their captain, their vice-captain, Clarke, Hayden, Symonds...are you kidding me? Look I agree with your claim that statistics can be misinterpreted... The famous Sidhu quote "Statistics are like miniskirts, they reveal what is appealing but hide what is vital" so if tendulkar had an average of 29 or 33 or something which is significantly lower than his normal average then you could make that claim for "peach delivers" but give me a fcuking break 11 innings is a large enough sample size to give good indication to how you are playing. And 14 is so pathetic that you would require like 10 out 11 innings to be determined by "peach delivers" what about the rest of them. More over look at how many times he played well, he only scored 1 half century! ONE! So i'm sorry apeeman, but your just factually incorrect. Numbers don't lie, period. Especially when they are that glaring. BTW Rajesh explains how he determined batting friendly vs. unfriendly conditions in his article if you read it. Mostly determined by the location...ala friendly = india, unfriendly = SA, Australia, Malaysia etc.

[The Outsider]

Re: The real culprits by S Rajesh from Cricinfo This is the biggest apology of a statistical analysis I have seen for a long long time.

[Guest BossBhai]

Re: The real culprits by S Rajesh from Cricinfo -- Removed on request of the user --