someone Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 well, victory in assembly elections doesn't necessarily convert into a boost in the National Elections (ask the 2004 BJP which went for early polls due to State Election success and lost in Lok Sabha!!!). But this is a big dilemma for the Cong - go for November polls and risk facing big losses in Lok Sabha in the states which are also having Assembly elections simultaneously OR go for March-April 2014 elections and risk giving BJP some boost due to a victory in Assembly elections.... The young brigade led by Rahul Baba depends on things surveys etc and may have come to the conclusion that going to early polls would be viable but these things have a history of being drastically off the mark so IMO Cong would be better off going with the advise of the experienced old guard. Disagree. Congress for early elections would mean less preparation of opponents. With early elections, opponents will get less time, so less impact and also more internal disturbance. And any "momentum" opposition gets from assembly elections would not matter then. And then given the rate of new scandals coming out monthly, Congress would be better off with early elections and less to minimize the damage done. More time till elections would also mean more probability of new corruption being open. It's the last thing Congress wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 IMO Congress has left it a little too late for Telangana. BTW hearing some interesting chatter. Modi likely to contest from Varanasi and Surat, Advaniji and Sushmaji totally at mercy of Shivraj Singh Chauhan- Bhopal and Vidisha, Rajnath to Lucknow, Murali manohar Joshi goes to Allahabad, Varun Gandhi mvoes closer to Gandhis from Sultanpur, Jaitley to Amritsar- unlike 2004 all top leaders being asked to fight LS polls. Even Rahul Baba likely to contest from Gulbarga in Karnataka besides Amethi. Advani has been contesting from Gandhinagar for 20+ years and if Modi (or his top aides like Amit Shah) are not going to fight form Gujarat then I see no reaosn for Advani's constituency to be moved. Sushma Swaraj is the sitting MP from Vidisha (and has won from there once in the past also) so its no surprise that she may contest form there again. Rajnath Singh has been very active and has been doing many programs and meeting voters in his current constituency Ghaziabad - that to me is an indicator that he will contet form there only. As for Modi from Varanasi and MM Joshi moving to Allahabad - I've also heard strong rumors about this. Varun is definitely moving to Sultanpur. About Jaitley I had heard Jaipur as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Disagree. Congress for early elections would mean less preparation of opponents. With early elections' date=' opponents will get less time, so less impact and also more internal disturbance.[b'] And any "momentum" opposition gets from assembly elections would not matter then. And then given the rate of new scandals coming out monthly, Congress would be better off with early elections and less to minimize the damage done. More time till elections would also mean more probability of new corruption being open. It's the last thing Congress wants. Array the Assebmly elections are scheduled for December so if Cong goes for early Lok Sabha elections then both will happen at the same time. Congress' position is not good in any of the states where Assembly elections have to happen so if Assembly & Lok Sabha happen at the same time then there's a substantial risk of losing Lok Sabha seats in those states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FischerTal Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Advani has been contesting from Gandhinagar for 20+ years and if Modi (or his top aides like Amit Shah) are not going to fight form Gujarat then I see no reaosn for Advani's constituency to be moved. Sushma Swaraj is the sitting MP from Vidisha (and has won from there once in the past also) so its no surprise that she may contest form there again. Rajnath Singh has been very active and has been doing many programs and meeting voters in his current constituency Ghaziabad - that to me is an indicator that he will contet form there only. As for Modi from Varanasi and MM Joshi moving to Allahabad - I've also heard strong rumors about this. Varun is definitely moving to Sultanpur. About Jaitley I had heard Jaipur as well... Advani's LS seat is due to meherbani of Modi right now. :two_thumbs_up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Advani's LS seat is due to meherbani of Modi right now. :two_thumbs_up: Advani has been the MP from Gandhinagar since 1991 - Modi wasn't even there on the political horizon at that time. Talking of meherbani, it was Advani who persuaded Atalji to not sack Modi after Gujarat riots :two_thumbs_up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saneindian Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Advani has been contesting from Gandhinagar for 20+ years and if Modi (or his top aides like Amit Shah) are not going to fight form Gujarat then I see no reaosn for Advani's constituency to be moved. Sushma Swaraj is the sitting MP from Vidisha (and has won from there once in the past also) so its no surprise that she may contest form there again. Rajnath Singh has been very active and has been doing many programs and meeting voters in his current constituency Ghaziabad - that to me is an indicator that he will contet form there only. As for Modi from Varanasi and MM Joshi moving to Allahabad - I've also heard strong rumors about this. Varun is definitely moving to Sultanpur. About Jaitley I had heard Jaipur as well... Advaniji could be sabotaged in Gandhinagar for his 'ill health' in time for Goa a few weeks ago. He's taken his opposition to Modi a little too far IMO, plus he and his group in BJP (read Sushma Swaraj) had overused the Nitish Kumar card to sabotage Modi but failed. The recent vicious attack on BJP leadership particularly Rajnath, Jaitley and Modi by Advaniji' aide Sudheendra Kulkarni hasn't helped matter much. Hence this plan of moving to Bhopal. Hearing such gossip from 11, Ashok Road so strong chances of them being true. :--D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FischerTal Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Advani has been the MP from Gandhinagar since 1991 - Modi wasn't even there on the political horizon at that time. Talking of meherbani, it was Advani who persuaded Atalji to not sack Modi after Gujarat riots :two_thumbs_up: Wait, arent you one of the people who said Modi's popularity is consigned to Gujarat? So then, why couldnt Modi take out Advani slyly if he wants from Gandhinagar? :--D Same meherbani of Advani was rewarded with a LS seat from Gandhinagar by Modi. :good: BTW, it was Advani who made Modi CM of Gujarat after Keshubapa was sacked..... their history goes long back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saneindian Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Advani has been the MP from Gandhinagar since 1991 - Modi wasn't even there on the political horizon at that time. Talking of meherbani, it was Advani who persuaded Atalji to not sack Modi after Gujarat riots :two_thumbs_up: Since 1998. Before that didnt he use to fight from two seats? In 1991 Advani nearly got defeated by Rajesh Khanna from New Delhi (won by just over 1000+ votes). BTW The meherbani of being saved in 2002 was paid back when he was the PM candidate of BJP despite strong RSS opposition for 2009 post the Jinnah fiasco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Wait, arent you one of the people who said Modi's popularity is consigned to Gujarat? So then, why couldnt Modi take out Advani slyly if he wants from Gandhinagar? :--D Same meherbani of Advani was rewarded with a LS seat from Gandhinagar by Modi. :good: do you mean if Modi wants to contest form Gandhinagar? Advani was already the MP form Gandhinagar at that time so how the hell could Modi show meherbani to give him the seat......also, Modi has only become strong enough in the last 1-2 years so now he may try to do with Advani what he has done with senior leaders from Gujrat i.e. insult him, make his (i.e. Modi's) supporters go against Advani and try to demean him. You may not think these things matter (because you think Advani is now useless so) but I think it will matter a lot in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Advaniji could be sabotaged in Gandhinagar for his 'ill health' in time for Goa a few weeks ago. He's taken his opposition to Modi a little too far IMO' date=' plus he and his group in BJP (read Sushma Swaraj) had overused the Nitish Kumar card to sabotage Modi but failed. The recent vicious attack on BJP leadership particularly Rajnath, Jaitley and Modi by Advaniji' aide Sudheendra Kulkarni hasn't helped matter much. Hence this plan of moving to Bhopal. Hearing such gossip from 11, Ashok Road so strong chances of them being true. :--D[/quote'] ho sakta hai......Modi has shown in the past that he is vindictive and doesn't respect seniors who have helped the party but who questioned him so I won't be surprised if Advani moves from Gandhinagar. actually Advani contested in 1991 from both Delhi and Gandhinagar, won form both and then gave up Delhi and remianed an MP from Gandhinagar - since then he has been a MP from there (total 5 terms from there). what has that got to do with Modi? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adi B Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 asli dum usi me jo UP se LS seat ke liye lade aur jeete :weights: BJP`s tactics clear under rajnath,they want to win more seats in UP,UK,bihar,j`kand to make life easy for them..bjp will defo garner more seats in central india,gujarat and rajasthan compared to last time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FischerTal Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 do you mean if Modi wants to contest form Gandhinagar? Advani was already the MP form Gandhinagar at that time so how the hell could Modi show meherbani to give him the seat......also, Modi has only become strong enough in the last 1-2 years so now he may try to do with Advani what he has done with senior leaders from Gujrat i.e. insult him, make his (i.e. Modi's) supporters go against Advani and try to demean him. You may not think these things matter (because you think Advani is now useless so) but I think it will matter a lot in the long run. no if advani wants to contest from gandhinagar. I am talking about present-day politics. In Gujarat's elections, nothing is done without Modi's approval. Im just saying if Modi wanted to make Advani lose on purpose, he can do that theoretically considering the strong cusp he has over the karyakartas in Gujarat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adi B Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 do you mean if Modi wants to contest form Gandhinagar? Advani was already the MP form Gandhinagar at that time so how the hell could Modi show meherbani to give him the seat......also, Modi has only become strong enough in the last 1-2 years so now he may try to do with Advani what he has done with senior leaders from Gujrat i.e. insult him, make his (i.e. Modi's) supporters go against Advani and try to demean him. You may not think these things matter (because you think Advani is now useless so) but I think it will matter a lot in the long run. thats too much assumption in the 2nd para,u are kinda portraying a khandoori-pokhrial situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 thats too much assumption in the 2nd para' date='u are kinda portraying a khandoori-pokhrial situation[/quote'] see what happened to each and every Gujarat BJP leader (especially the senior most ones) who questioned Modi - they have been humiliated, their Lok Sabha/Vidhan Sabha tickets taken away and in many cases, forced to leave the party. I'm not saying he will do these things but now since Advani has openly questioned him, I do not expect Modi to support Advani ever again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 no if advani wants to contest from gandhinagar. I am talking about present-day politics. In Gujarat's elections, nothing is done without Modi's approval. Im just saying if Modi wanted to make Advani lose on purpose, he can do that theoretically considering the strong cusp he has over the karyakartas in Gujarat. Modi might have had the support of the karyakartas but even then till the 2009 elections he didn't have the power to do anything against a leader of Advani's stature. Also, at that time relations between the two were good and Modi was not in the contention for any sort of National Leadership Role and Advani was the unquestioned leader of the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FischerTal Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Modi might have had the support of the karyakartas but even then till the 2009 elections he didn't have the power to do anything against a leader of Advani's stature. Also' date=' at that time relations between the two were good and Modi was not in the contention for any sort of National Leadership Role and Advani was the unquestioned leader of the party.[/quote'] i think the equations are changing now, but Modi wont do such a thing to Advani because I dont think he will want to risk giving the opposition and media more fodder than there already is on this issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 i think the equations are changing now' date=' but Modi wont do such a thing to Advani because I dont think he will want to risk giving the opposition and media more fodder than there already is on this issue[/quote'] maybe. But if he does that I won't be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saneindian Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 ho sakta hai......Modi has shown in the past that he is vindictive and doesn't respect seniors who have helped the party but who questioned him so I won't be surprised if Advani moves from Gandhinagar. actually Advani contested in 1991 from both Delhi and Gandhinagar, won form both and then gave up Delhi and remianed an MP from Gandhinagar - since then he has been a MP from there (total 5 terms from there). what has that got to do with Modi? Advani moving to Gandhinagar has a Modi connection. Advani got Modi into BJP in 1985, made him the BJP secretary in charge of state and gave him the responsibility of building the organization in the state. Then Modi managed the entire Gujrat leg of Advani's Rath yatra in 1990. Then Modi increased his clout with Advani and marginalized Shankar Singh Vaghela by first persuading him to contest from Gandhinagar in 1991 (Was Vaghela's lok sabha seat earlier) and then totally managing his Gandhinagar lok sabha seat. Thats where Modi's prominence in BJP started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adi B Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 see what happened to each and every Gujarat BJP leader (especially the senior most ones) who questioned Modi - they have been humiliated' date=' their Lok Sabha/Vidhan Sabha tickets taken away and in many cases, forced to leave the party. I'm not saying he will do these things but now since Advani has openly questioned him, I do not expect Modi to support Advani ever again.[/quote'] keshubhai was a different matter..advani is a too bigger leader to undergo that fate .. with some tall leaders still in the advani "khema",he can still rule the roost to where he want to contest.. saw rajnath`s interview to charkha dutt yesterday,till he`s the president,advani aint going nowhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FischerTal Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 keshubhai was a different matter..advani is a too bigger leader to undergo that fate .. with some tall leaders still in the advani "khema",he can still rule the roost to where he want to contest.. saw rajnath`s interview to charkha dutt yesterday,till he`s the president,advani aint going nowhere that lady annoys me more than anybody else. Only Sagarika Ghose is comparable to her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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