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The Narendra Modi thread

The Narendra Modi thread  

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Odds appear to be stacking up against Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi in his home state ahead of the crucial assembly elections later this year. With the disenchanted leaders of the saffron brigade coming together, BJP party workers are showing signs of being unnerved. And justifiably so as the tallest leader of the Patel community and former Chief Minister, Keshubhai Patel, has adopted a stand more aggressive than ever before. What is all the more significant is that Keshubhai now intends to visit New Delhi and inform the BJP high-command, aka L.K. Advani, about the developing situation in Gujarat. With the rift between Modi and Advani out in the open, Keshubhai's move is likely to spell trouble for the current CM, who is eyeing his propulsion to New Delhi after a spectacular show of strength in the forthcoming election in the state. Keshubhai, along with Modi's former MoS home, Gordhan Zadafia, has been busy mobilising the Patel community, which is yet to forget the unceremonious ouster of Keshubapa to make place for Modi as the chief minister. Interestingly, Modi has been successful in ousting all his rivals in the Gujarat BJP, beginning with former chief ministers Shankarsinh Vaghela, Suresh Mehta, Keshubhai and finally Sanjay Joshi, with the blessings of his one-time mentor Advani, who seems to be getting the rough end of the stick now. If Keshubhai's ouster had angered the Patel community, then Modi's run-in with the Brahmin community in the state too has had its repercussions. While the alleged political murder of Haren Pandya continues to be a sore point for the community, his sidelining of the former speaker Ashok Bhatt, former minister of health Nalin Bhatt and the latest ouster of Sanjay Joshi have only added fuel to the community's anger. Modi's relations with Vishwa Hindu Parishad heavyweight Pravin Togadia too have not been friendly. Togadia and Modi fell out soon after the 2002 assembly elections when the VHP leader was sidelined in state polity. The anti-Modi axis now formed in the state also tends to gain from this acrimony. "If the new formation can retain its vivacity, it will end up causing unimaginable damage to the party in the forthcoming election," said a BJP member from Ahmedabad. Even though the meeting held at Keshubhai's residence on Wednesday ended without any concrete decision, it assumed extra significance in the backdrop of the events recounted above. Former MoS home and the president of Mahagujarat Janata Party (MJP), a splinter outfit born out of BJP, Gordhan Zadafia, told Mail Today that the leaders who met were primarily sevaks of the RSS and had met in that capacity. The statement was underscored by the presence of senior RSS Pracharak Bhaskarrao Damle at the venue. Modi's scheme of collecting funds from the people through "dhandaan" too has backfired and stories of excesses by the party men are surfacing now. "This is not the best way to go about it and things are not looking right," said another party worker.
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/modi-gaining-national-ground-but-losing-grip-on-state/1/198468.html

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I think its the other way round - he is gaining more control and power in his state while at the National level, despite small victories like getting Sanjay Joshi out of the National Executive, his position is still the same - within the BJP as well as within NDA's allies there are two groups - ones who love him and others who hate him and IMO this strong reaction from either side is the reason why he won't be the PM anytime soon. As for this "revolt" by these former CMs - all these leaders are past their expiry date and in 2007 also Keshubhai Patel and Suresh Mehta tried to bring all the Patels together but failed spectacularly in doing any damage to Modi. AFAIK Modi has become stronger than ever in Gujarat and those Sadbhawana Yatras he took out where he went on a fast in different cities in Gujarat have had some impact and no matter how hard these former CMs try, he will win the upcoming Assembly elections.

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I always think one should not be at the helm for more than 2 or 3 terms, thats about it. More you are in power, more you become corrupt because of power. Its happens to best of the best. I think Modi should not run for CM and probably groom his successor. I don't see BJP losing in Gujarat any time soon.

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I always think one should not be at the helm for more than 2 or 3 terms, thats about it. More you are in power, more you become corrupt because of power. Its happens to best of the best. I think Modi should not run for CM and probably groom his successor. I don't see BJP losing in Gujarat any time soon.
by the looks of things Modi may move to National Politics in 2014 but he will be the CM candidate in the upcoming elections and he may chose a successor after a few months.

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Modi should stay put where he is..Else BJP will never come to power at the National level.. The moment he comes in National Politics, it's gonna polarise all anti-Modi parties and Congress will benefit the most. If BJP wants to hand advantage on a platter to Congress, then bring Modi in the national politics.. Effing BJP & RSS.. WTF they are doing? Another epic screw up?

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Keshubhai Patel meets senior RSS leaders A day after meeting discontented and sidelined BJP leaders at his residence in Gandhinagar, veteran BJP leader Keshubhai Patel met senior Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) leaders in Mehsana on Thursday. The move assumes political significance as it seems Patel is making moves to garner support from all wings of RSS. The former chief minister had attended RSS's induction camp (prathamik varg) in the north Gujarat town. Sources close to Patel said, "He had visited Ganpat University, Kherva, near Mehsana, where the prathamik varg of RSS is organised. He met Praveen Ontia, one of the senior-most RSS leaders of the state and veteran RSS worker Bhaskarrao Damle. All three leaders held a closed-door meeting for at least an hour and a half."

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It's all Advani driven, he wants modi to be occupied in Gujarat so he keeps his nose out of national politics. There is a lot happening in BJP. I probably won't vote for modi ever but BJPs best chance is to go alone and start campaign 18 months in advance and portray modi as the PM otherwise they don't stand a chance

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Narendra Modi meets Advani, Vajpayee New Delhi: Amid growing dissensions and leadership tussle in the party, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi today called on BJP’s seniormost leaders Atal Bihari Vajpayee and LK Advani in New Delhi. Several BJP leaders still invoke Vajpayee, who has been ailing for the last few years, in their bid to gain more legitimacy and wider acceptability within the party. Modi’s meeting with Vajpayee appears to be one such attempt even as he is fast emerging as a prime ministerial candidate of the BJP in the next Lok Sabha elections. The former prime minister’s old pictures, speeches and poems are often used by the top leaders of the party because of his popularity and appeal within BJP and outside. Sources said Modi met Vajpayee to enquire about his health and seek his blessings. Before leaving for Ahmedabad, Modi also called on Advani. This meeting comes in the backdrop of Advani’s scathing attack on party president Nitin Gadkari—with whom Modi was hardly on talking terms till recently—on his blog on Thursday. Advani had hit out at Gadkari for some of the recent decisions in Uttar Pradesh elections, as well as in Karnataka and Jharkhand. Advani is Lok Sabha MP from Gandhinagar. Modi and Advani have also had differences on certain issues but the latter has also praised the chief minister profusely on different occasions on his blog and in his speeches. PTI

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Modi should stay put where he is..Else BJP will never come to power at the National level.. The moment he comes in National Politics, it's gonna polarise all anti-Modi parties and Congress will benefit the most. If BJP wants to hand advantage on a platter to Congress, then bring Modi in the national politics.. Effing BJP & RSS.. WTF they are doing? Another epic screw up?
I completely agree but now things have come to a stage where Modi going to the National stage is inevitable. But even if he does move to National politics, I don't see him becoming the PM candidate because there too many hurdles in his way.

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It's all Advani driven, he wants modi to be occupied in Gujarat so he keeps his nose out of national politics. There is a lot happening in BJP. I probably won't vote for modi ever but BJPs best chance is to go alone and start campaign 18 months in advance and portray modi as the PM otherwise they don't stand a chance
That would mean BJP getting less seats than 2009.

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2014 is make or break election for BJP...if its failed it will become a regional party with presence in only few states.. Modi must projected as leader and need to push few oldies backstage bring fresh faces its not impossible to do, high risk but worth taking

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Let's take the most optimistic scenario for the BJP(counting only the BJP not allies since their support will be contingent on Modi) in 2014: 1. UP - 30/80 2. Bihar - 10/40 3. Maharashtra - 30/48 (including Shiv Sena since they will gladly support Modi) 4. MP - 20/29 5. Rajasthan - 20/25 6. Karnataka - 15/28 7. Gujarat - 20/26 Throw in another 50 from AP, Assam, Chhatisgarh, Harayana, Delhi, Punjab, Orissa and they still don't cross 200 forget about 271. None of their allies except Shiv Sena is going to support a government with Modi at the helm. It will be political suicide if BJP makes Modi their PM candidate and despite what the internet residing middle class thinks the ground reality is that BJP has got it's ass handed to them on a platter wherever Modi has campaigned outside Gujarat.

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It will be political suicide if BJP makes Modi their PM candidate
i want BJP to take this chance...its not like the Super pseudo secularists save this country from communal-ism.. let us see whether our middle class really interested in developing this country or Not.. Who knows if Modi formed a team with clean image people in front anything can happen..[he cant go with same old people BJP have in front office now]

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Let's take the most optimistic scenario for the BJP(counting only the BJP not allies since their support will be contingent on Modi) in 2014: 1. UP - 30/80 2. Bihar - 10/40 3. Maharashtra - 30/48 (including Shiv Sena since they will gladly support Modi) 4. MP - 20/29 5. Rajasthan - 20/25 6. Karnataka - 15/28 7. Gujarat - 20/26 Throw in another 50 from AP, Assam, Chhatisgarh, Harayana, Delhi, Punjab, Orissa and they still don't cross 200 forget about 271. None of their allies except Shiv Sena is going to support a government with Modi at the helm. It will be political suicide if BJP makes Modi their PM candidate and despite what the internet residing middle class thinks the ground reality is that BJP has got it's ass handed to them on a platter wherever Modi has campaigned outside Gujarat.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Modi's biggest drawback will be that he will polarize all the anti-BJP vote and that will be disastrous for BJP. As for support for Modi - forget about the allies, even within his own party he will definitely be challenged by the likes of Sushma Swaraj or LK Advani or even Gadkari for the leadership and as you rightly said he has failed every time he has campaigned outside Gujarat. I don't think BJP will name anyone as their PM candidate before the elections. The leadership issue will be decided only if and when NDA is in a position to form the Govt.

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I don't think BJP will name anyone as their PM candidate before the elections. The leadership issue will be decided only if and when NDA is in a position to form the Govt.
That will be another LOL moment for the BJP since they are the ones who made all this hue and cry about Congress not naming a PM candidate prior to elections on previous occasions. BJP had a golden opportunity to become a national force capable of getting a majority on their own in the 90s but the communal politics of Advani and his cronies ensured it did not happen. They got taken away by their meteoric rise based on a communal agenda, but did not realize that ultimately people are going to look for an alternative development plan rather than how many masjids were destroyed. Vajpayee had the right idea a vision for the party but unfortunately he was too old and easily got sidelined by the likes of Modi and Advani.

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Let's take the most optimistic scenario for the BJP(counting only the BJP not allies since their support will be contingent on Modi) in 2014: 1. UP - 30/80 2. Bihar - 10/40 3. Maharashtra - 30/48 (including Shiv Sena since they will gladly support Modi) 4. MP - 20/29 5. Rajasthan - 20/25 6. Karnataka - 15/28 7. Gujarat - 20/26 Throw in another 50 from AP, Assam, Chhatisgarh, Harayana, Delhi, Punjab, Orissa and they still don't cross 200 forget about 271. None of their allies except Shiv Sena is going to support a government with Modi at the helm. It will be political suicide if BJP makes Modi their PM candidate and despite what the internet residing middle class thinks the ground reality is that BJP has got it's ass handed to them on a platter wherever Modi has campaigned outside Gujarat.
BJP's main problem is it does not have any presence in TN(39), WB (42), Kerala(20) and minimal presence in AP(42) and Orrisa(21) ,J&K(6) and northeast another 15 seats. so overall they are contesting almost 180 seats less than Congress. So if they have to win on their own (along with Akali Dal and SS) by projecting Modi as the PM they have to perform well in the above states u mentioned.

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I don't think BJP will name anyone as their PM candidate before the elections. The leadership issue will be decided only if and when NDA is in a position to form the Govt.
If BJP has little bit of sense then it should discuss the issue with NDA partners and also those who used to be NDA partners (Like TMC, BJD, TDP, AIADMK) and finalise a candidate ASAP. Ideally Arun Jaitly or Nitish Kumar.. Dimaag fir gaya hain kachchadhariyon ka..They're the prime reason Congress keeps on making a winning alliance and surviving..

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They have no other choice. Things are happening for Modi. If the conomy continues to get messed which I know it will' date= I think Indian will serious consider the proven development option.
whats happening with him?? Getting Sanjay Joshi out of the National Executive or ignoring LK Advani etc are petty things which do not grow his stature in any way. JDU is still opposed to him and I don't see many new allies joining NDA if he is the leader. Modi might be a proven development option in his state but outside Gujarat he has failed time and again.
2014 is make or break election for BJP...if its failed it will become a regional party with presence in only few states.. Modi must projected as leader and need to push few oldies backstage bring fresh faces its not impossible to do, high risk but worth taking
which oldies are you talking about?? LK Advani doesn't have that much of power now. AB Vajpayee is no longer active. Murli Manohar Joshi is not in any kind of position to challenge for the leadership. Also, there aren't very many fresh faces who can suddenly be thrown into national politics with no opposition from the leaders currently in important organizational positions in BJP. The state leaders like Dr. Raman Singh, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Vasundhra Raje etc don't have any appeal outside their own states. If he is projected as leader then it will unite all the opposition parties and give them so much ammunition that BJP's election prospects will be over before the election actually happens. Projecting him as leader won't be a gamble but a sure shot loss.

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If BJP has little bit of sense then it should discuss the issue with NDA partners and also those who used to be NDA partners (Like TMC, BJD, TDP, AIADMK) and finalise a candidate ASAP. Ideally Arun Jaitly or Nitish Kumar.. Dimaag fir gaya hain kachchadhariyon ka..They're the prime reason Congress keeps on making a winning alliance and surviving..
Nitish Kumar would be the ideal choice, but there is zero practical chance of it happening because the BJP will never agree to a PM candidate from outside the party. Not only does he have a good development record, but he also has the most pan India appeal out of all possible BJP candidates. Despite my dislike for the BJP I would happily cast my vote for Nitish Kumar like I did for Vajpayee. He'll probably end up as the best PM India never had like Warne.

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BJP's main problem is it does not have any presence in TN(39)' date= WB (42), Kerala(20) and minimal presence in AP(42) and Orrisa(21) ,J&K(6) and northeast another 15 seats. so overall they are contesting almost 180 seats less than Congress. So if they have to win on their own (along with Akali Dal and SS) by projecting Modi as the PM they have to perform well in the above states u mentioned.
it doesn't have much of a presence in these states but there are allies who have a presence and will easily join NDA if BJP performs well in the states where it is strong. In TN AIADMK will definitely win a very large number of the 39 seats and they can join NDA. In WB there's TMC and they also can join if needed. In Orrisa there's BJD who used to be partners and will definitely join again if needed. In AP there's TDP and now there's also YSR Congress - I think Jagan Reddy will be happy to join any coalition other than one led by Congress. Yeah, BJP is weak and doesn't have much of a presence in quite a few states but Cong also is set to lose many seats in many states: In Andhra Pradesh they have become extremely weak with YSR's death and the emergence of Jagan Reddy - Cong will lose quite a few seats there. Due to some mistakes on the part of SP, Congress won over 20 seats in UP but it won't come anywhere near that number this time. They won around 20 seats in Rajasthan but have become quite weak since then. They will lose a few in Kerela and Maharashtra as well.
If BJP has little bit of sense then it should discuss the issue with NDA partners and also those who used to be NDA partners (Like TMC, BJD, TDP, AIADMK) and finalise a candidate ASAP. Ideally Arun Jaitly or Nitish Kumar.. Dimaag fir gaya hain kachchadhariyon ka..They're the prime reason Congress keeps on making a winning alliance and surviving..
he will be my choice too. People say that Arun Jaitley and Modi can become a pair like Vajpayee and Advani :hmmm:

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it doesn't have much of a presence in these states but there are allies who have a presence and will easily join NDA if BJP performs well in the states where it is strong. In TN AIADMK will definitely win a very large number of the 39 seats and they can join NDA. In WB there's TMC and they also can join if needed. In Orrisa there's BJD who used to be partners and will definitely join again if needed. In AP there's TDP and now there's also YSR Congress - I think Jagan Reddy will be happy to join any coalition other than one led by Congress. Yeah, BJP is weak and doesn't have much of a presence in quite a few states but Cong also is set to lose many seats in many states:
That will work only if Modi is kept as far away from national politics as possible. As you rightly mentioned earlier, none of these potential coalition partners is even going to touch BJP with a 10 foot pole if Modi has any significant role in the government. Despite my dislike for the BJP, I am quite sick of the current Congress government, but I would prefer to have this economic stagnation and corruption over Modi becoming the PM and from my understanding that is quite a prevalent sentiment. BJP actually has a good chance in the next elections if it can isolate the hawks and work proactively with potential coalition partners.

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There are 3 forces working against each other in BJP.. 1. Core BJP politicians who are pragmatic and followers of Vajpayee (Nor necessarily RSS dictated). 2. RSS and other right wing organisations (messing up BJP with their stupid candidates like that Motu Gadhkari)... :facepalm: 3. Emerging regional leader Modi (who's in a hurry) and his supporters (mainly Non '1' & Non '2'). These 3 forces will :fight: with each other and Congress will make a winning alliance and kick sorry arses of BJP again.. :hehe:

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That will work only if Modi is kept as far away from national politics as possible. As you rightly mentioned earlier' date=' none of these potential coalition partners is even going to touch BJP with a 10 foot pole if Modi has any significant role in the government. Despite my dislike for the BJP, I am quite sick of the current Congress government, but I would prefer to have this economic stagnation and corruption over Modi becoming the PM and from my understanding that is quite a prevalent sentiment. [b']BJP actually has a good chance in the next elections if it can isolate the hawks and work proactively with potential coalition partners.
IMO BJP needs two things to happen in order to win the next elections: 1. Rahul Baba as the UPA's PM candidate :D 2. Seniors BJP leaders should stop trying to sabotage each other's chances for the leadership and try to work together. Now the 1st part looks certain to happen but I'm not sure about the 2nd.
There are 3 forces working against each other in BJP.. 1. Core BJP politicians who are pragmatic and followers of Vajpayee (Nor necessarily RSS dictated). 2. RSS and other right wing organisations (messing up BJP with their stupid candidates like that Motu Gadhkari)... :facepalm: 3. Emerging regional leader Modi (who's in a hurry) and his supporters (mainly Non '1' & Non '2'). These 3 forces will :fight: with each other and Congress will make a winning alliance and kick sorry arses of BJP again.. :hehe:
actually he hasn't done that badly. He was a very junior leader and was made President when BJP was at its lowest in many years and his job was to work together with the senior leaders. He has brought in many professionals in the party and has introduced the system of tickets being distributed after having surveys done (it hasn't always been followed and hasn't worked in all the cases but is still better than giving tickets to cronies.) He had been doing his job pretty well but now suddenly it seems as if he also has aspirations for the PM's post :facepalm:

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I dont think there is any consensus candidate. I always thought Pramod Mahajan was the next PM candidate, too bad what happened to him. Jaitley can be a good PM but Sushma jee wont agree .. Problem is that all main leaders want to be the next PM candidate and none of them have a solid base across the country.

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The enemies within

All through childhood my mother would tell me: “You have to work hard to get whatever is in your destiny. But, remember, you can never get more than you are destined to get and never before the time that you are destined to get it.’’ I am reminded of that again as I watch senior BJP leader LK Advani fight against his destiny to get to the Prime Minister’s Office in New Delhi. Perhaps it is in his destiny, perhaps not. But he is, at least, putting up a great fight for it and it is good to see that the man who wanted us to believe that the BJP was a party with a difference, is himself now at the head of those differences with so many others in the organisation. However, it is satisfying to know that what we have been saying all along about the BJP – that it is actually doing worse than the Congress even though the Congress might seem so scatter-brained and unable to hold its act together – is now being reiterated by the grand old man of that very party. And though it might be the real threat of the denial of his ambition to become PM that might have brought forth the realisation of something that was visible from miles away for anyone who cared to see, perhaps it is time for others in the BJP to heed Advani’s warning. The party is usually better at hiding its bickering than is the Congress under similar cicumstances. Advani’s latest diatribe seems to be aimed at party president Nitin Gadkari but it is not just Advani who is attempting to bring him down a peg or two. Gadkari is already on record that he wants to contest the next election from Nagpur, a Congress fortress that alone stayed with the party even when it was swept out of Vidarbha by the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance in 2004. The only time the Congress conceded Nagpur to the BJP was when a party rebel – Banwarilal Purohit – brought a few Congress tricks to the bag when he had contested on a BJP ticket in the early Nineties. He soon fell out with both Gadkari and Pramod Mahajan, then general secretary in charge of Maharashtra, and returned to the Congress’s fold as did the constituency. Now Gadkari himself is unable to espy the mischief afoot against him in his home town by his own men — those who claim proximity to him have already begun to work the wires to ensure that he does not win 2014, not withstanding the RSS headquartered there. And the Congress has, of course, opened out its arms to such backstabbers and is wholeheartedly aiding their game plan. Whether, then, Gadkari overcomes the image of being a loser, as Advani has suggested in his blog yesterday, remains to be seen. But it is remarkable that the party with a difference has had some more differences surfacing a day after Advani’s admonition to his party men: an editorial in their party mouth piece, the Kamal Sandesh, which warns Narendra Modi against his arrogance, his inability to take party men along and his dictatorial ways. Now that is what we have been saying all along about the Gujarat chief minister — and being called all sorts of names for that observation. So what would his supporters now call Advani? Clearly, Advani has more friends in the BJP than Modi does and so the orchestration has begun towards 2014 — though, I believe, the national party leaders are waiting with bated breath to see how the results to the Gujarat Assembly elections this December might go before really outing themselves. There is a whole group of anti-Modi people who despair that he might win again but there are many in the BJP whose whispers are now getting louder as they point to figures and statistics to prove that neither Gujarat nor its chief minister is doing as well as he might wish to project to the rest of the world. The meeting of anti-Modi Gujarat BJP heavyweights earlier this week, which was an open declaration of war against Modi, could not have happened without some covert support from central leaders and is a clear indicator that the party is heading toward a clear-cut division of camps, if not a split – those for and those against letting Modi out of Gujarat. Ironically, those who want to confine Modi to Gujarat also wish to see him lose Gujarat in December for that would truly clip his wings even if he might then redouble his efforts to seek a national role for himself. As I gather from some Congress leaders I spoke to, that is just what they are waiting for — and not just because that would mean they regain control of one among India’s most prosperous states. If the BJP fears handing over the party nationally to Modi, the Congress seems to be simply looking forward to just that prospect. For while Modi’s national ascension might cut short the ambitions of the numerous BJP leaders hoping to become PM in case of a NDA victory, the Congress is certain that that NDA victory will never come to pass with Modi at the helm – for they would then be the automatic beneficiaries of the consolidation of votes against the BJP. Now, whichever way the BJP might resolve this very real headache growing in the party, my money is on Advani, even though I am no fan of the architect of the demolition of the Babri Masjid. I had said earlier in this blog (see Singly Political `Not his own man’, September 23, 2011) that Advani was an old fox; he would never le go and could be expected to outfox all the foxes, old and new, in both the RSS and the BJP when the RSS had forced him to defer his ambition to be PM. Not for nothing did Advani toil hard to bring the BJP up from two seats in the Lok Sabha in 1984 to more than 80 in the next Lok Sabha and then steadily worked towards the formation of a government at the Centre. But, sadly, he was probably never destined: the Jain havala scam tripped him up and he had to concede first place to Atal Behari Vajpayee. When, in 2004, it seemed as though they would have to retire Vajpayee after the campaign and Advani then would become the automatic choice for PM, destiny tripped him up again. Then destiny struck again in 2009 when every body believed that this so-called iron man of the BJP had all but tripped up the so-called weakest prime minister in Indian history — Dr Manmohan Singh still pipped Advani to the post. Now, for once, will destiny be on his side in this battle against the younger BJP leaders? There could be many twists in the tale between now and 2014. But with friends like these in their own party, which BJP leader — Advani, Modi, Gadkari or any of the others — needs any enemies from outer space? I am reminded of what Vilasrao Deshmukh had said when he was sacked in 2003 during his first term as chief minister: gairon ne nahin, apnon ne hee maara hai (I have been betrayed not by others but by my own people). Ditto BJP, circa 2014?
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IMO BJP needs two things to happen in order to win the next elections: 1. Rahul Baba as the UPA's PM candidate :D 2. Seniors BJP leaders should stop trying to sabotage each other's chances for the leadership and try to work together. Now the 1st part looks certain to happen but I'm not sure about the 2nd.
I don't think the Congress is stupid enough to project Rahul Gandhi as the next PM candidate. He might become the next PM, but I really doubt that he will be projected as such before the elections after the UP fiasco. They'll stick to their "Candidate will be chosen after elections" routine. BJP is a gone case for the time being, IMO. As much as a I dislike the BJP a strong opposition is necessary for a vibrant democracy and they have floundered on every possible scenario since they put Vajpayee on the sidelines. I would love for BJP to recognize the fact that they don't have any leader at their helm and project Nitish Kumar as a candidate for PM, but I know it's not going to happen.

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whats happening with him?? Getting Sanjay Joshi out of the National Executive or ignoring LK Advani etc are petty things which do not grow his stature in any way. JDU is still opposed to him and I don't see many new allies joining NDA if he is the leader. Modi might be a proven development option in his state but outside Gujarat he has failed time and again..
What I meant was in terms of economy and lack of governance. Truth is politics and elections are as much about individuals and their policies as it is about the environment in the country at the time. I struggle to see time in India in last 15-20 years where we have had such abysmal levels of missteps by the party in centre. Truth is Indian economy is on the edge and might just fall of it. When sh*t hits the fan, all options will be on the table for Indian public including Modi. As for the second bit, again the scenarios at the time of election will determine the failing or succeeding. If things continue to go bad, past election will have little to no impact.

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What I meant was in terms of economy and lack of governance. Truth is politics and elections are as much about individuals and their policies as it is about the environment in the country at the time. I struggle to see time in India in last 15-20 years where we have had such abysmal levels of missteps by the party in centre. Truth is Indian economy is on the edge and might just fall of it. When sh*t hits the fan, all options will be on the table for Indian public including Modi. As for the second bit, again the scenarios at the time of election will determine the failing or succeeding. If things continue to go bad, past election will have little to no impact.
The thing is that most Indians don't understand economics, they will vote for their local favorites and can be easily persuaded by caste, religion, quota etc: Look at mamta banerjee, what economic policies did she suggest to win (at least im not aware of any). She just won cuz people thought things are bad lets try the other party but not on policies

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I don't think the Congress is stupid enough to project Rahul Gandhi as the next PM candidate. He might become the next PM' date= but I really doubt that he will be projected as such before the elections after the UP fiasco. They'll stick to their "Candidate will be chosen after elections" routine. BJP is a gone case for the time being, IMO. As much as a I dislike the BJP a strong opposition is necessary for a vibrant democracy and they have floundered on every possible scenario since they put Vajpayee on the sidelines. I would love for BJP to recognize the fact that they don't have any leader at their helm and project Nitish Kumar as a candidate for PM, but I know it's not going to happen.
I don't think there is any chance at all of Congress going into the next elections with MMS as the PM candidate and in such a scenario, whether they announce it or not, Rahul Gandhi will be the PM candidate by default. I think that some of the Congress workers realize that Rahul Gandhi is not a leader capable of winning elections on his own but they have spent so much time and energy in building him up as the next big thing in Indian politics that now they have no choice but to project him. Also, the Cong does not have anyone other than Members/Loyalists of Gandhi family who can be the PM candidate. The UP elections happened in March 2012, the Lok Sabha elections will most probably happen in March 2014 - a gap of 2 years and in these 2 years there will be elections in many states and success in even one of those states will be enough for the Cong workers/leaders to once again sing "Rahul Gandhi Zindabad"

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Nitish Kumar as NDA's PM candidate? He will struggle to win in Bihar if he parts ways with the BJP. Also, assuming Modi is BJP's PM candidate and Nitish Kumar decides to break ties with BJP, the only other option for him would be to tie up with the Congress and add Ram Vilas Paswan (who has a hold over 4-5% dalit votes across Bihar). On its own, the JDU will not win a majority in Bihar given the caste equations in the state. Next question is how much appeal does he have outside Bihar? Also, how can someone with a group of no more than 21-22 LS seats expect to be the leader of a stable coalition government? Modi is the BJP's best bet if it decides to name a PM candidate for 2014. As good as Arun Jaitley is, he has absolutely no mass base of his own. A very good strategist, but never a mass leader. The comparison with Vajpayee isn't quite correct either. Vajpayee on his own won the BJP at least 40-50 seats in the late 90s propelling the NDA to power. Don't think Jaitley has the charisma to win even 10-15 seats. The other candidates are Sushma Swaraj who doesn't have as much wider acceptability in the party. Among the BJP CMs, Dr. Raman Singh could be a dark horse if it comes to deciding a consensus candidate but don't see BJP fighting the 2014 elections with him as their PM candidate. Modi's projection as PM will see en-mass voting by the muslims in favour of the congress but that will also lead to polarization of the Hindu votes, primarily the middle class voters from urban and semi urban centres in North and West, the very same group which voted for MMS in 2009 as the PM and which is disenchanted with the UPA govt's appalling performance. A highly polarised election scenario with a positive agenda for development (without too much harping on any anti muslim agenda like 2009) would work the best for the BJP if it has to reach 175+ seats. Else it will never go beyond 130-140 seats. With around 175 seats, the likes of Jayalalitha, Naveen Patnaik and other smaller groups with 15-20 seats would be easier to co-opt into the NDA fold. Modi's excellent personal rapport with Jaya and Patnaik would also come handy in such a scenario.

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The thing is that most Indians don't understand economics, they will vote for their local favorites and can be easily persuaded by caste, religion, quota etc: Look at mamta banerjee, what economic policies did she suggest to win (at least im not aware of any). She just won cuz people thought things are bad lets try the other party but not on policies
+10 No singular candidate can influence out great country. Not today more than ever before

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Modi single handedly has cut down on vote bank politics in Gujarat. There was "Patel Raj" in Gujarat more so in saurashtra region. He proved in last election, he can win without playing vote bank politics. Even muslims have started to vote for him in Gujarat. BJP has to take that chance. They may lose badly, so be it, but there is outside chance they may win it. Lot of Indian Youth, middle class will vote for him. If they don't go with Modi, project Sushma Swaraj as PM. Right now BJP should stay united, UPA is on suicidal mission. Anna and Ramdev are doing the oppositions job. BJP has to resolve internal differences. Party is bigger than the individuals. You have to give credit to Sonia mataji for keeping his house united..BJP should learn from that.

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Another huge factor in favour of Modi is his resourcefulness for the BJP. With the corporate India firmly behind him, he could be the biggest fund raiser for the party and would surely demand his due. There were media reports which said BJP was short of funds in the UP assembly elections and one of the primary reasons given was the lack of money flowing from Gujarat as Modi wasn't on talking terms with Gadkari.

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Nitish Kumar as NDA's PM candidate? He will struggle to win in Bihar if he parts ways with the BJP. Also' date= assuming Modi is BJP's PM candidate and Nitish Kumar decides to break ties with BJP, the only other option for him would be to tie up with the Congress and add Ram Vilas Paswan (who has a hold over 4-5% dalit votes across Bihar). On its own, the JDU will not win a majority in Bihar given the caste equations in the state.
Ram Vilas Paswan won't be much of a factor in Nitish Kumar's decision to join one coalition or the other because his party has now become very, very weak and he no longer has the same influence as before. I agree that JDU on its own will definitely not win a majority in Bihar - in fact in the last Assembly elections BJP won more than 90% of the seats it contested while JDU won around 85% of the seats it contested - so they are nearly equal in Bihar.
Next question is how much appeal does he have outside Bihar? Also, how can someone with a group of no more than 21-22 LS seats expect to be the leader of a stable coalition government?
IMO he doesn't have any appeal outside Bihar. In the recent elections in UP he came to campaign for JDU and such was the sorry state of affairs that in 2 cases even the candidate failed to turn up for his meetings :hysterical: I am certain that as long as both BJP and Cong win over 120 seats in the Lok Sabha elections, the question of selecting the PM from such a small party like JDU will not arise. And I don't think any of the equally "large" regional parties and their leaders like Mayawati, MSY, Jayalalitha, Mamta will accept him as the PM candidate because they would all think that they themselves are equally capable.
Modi is the BJP's best bet if it decides to name a PM candidate for 2014. As good as Arun Jaitley is, he has absolutely no mass base of his own. A very good strategist, but never a mass leader. The comparison with Vajpayee isn't quite correct either. Vajpayee on his own won the BJP at least 40-50 seats in the late 90s propelling the NDA to power. Don't think Jaitley has the charisma to win even 10-15 seats. The other candidates are Sushma Swaraj who doesn't have as much wider acceptability in the party. Among the BJP CMs, Dr. Raman Singh could be a dark horse if it comes to deciding a consensus candidate but don't see BJP fighting the 2014 elections with him as their PM candidate.
Jaitley does not have any appeal among the rural people but he has a very good image among the urban people and they comprise the biggest part of the BJP's voters so if he can capitalize of that strength then he can be a formidable candidate. He also looks like one who can manage a coalition Govt and has a proven track record as a good strategist. He may not be very successful as the PM candidate but if the BJP goes to polls without a leader and then wins enough seats then IMO he would be the front runner for the PM's post because he would be acceptable to the allies and to a large section of the BJP. Sushma Swaraj is one of the few BJP leaders who have some mass base among the Rural people but she seems to have the "foot in the mouth" disease and as you correctly said, she doesn't have wider acceptability.
Modi's projection as PM will see en-mass voting by the muslims in favour of the congress but that will also lead to polarization of the Hindu votes, primarily the middle class voters from urban and semi urban centres in North and West, the very same group which voted for MMS in 2009 as the PM and which is disenchanted with the UPA govt's appalling performance. A highly polarised election scenario with a positive agenda for development (without too much harping on any anti muslim agenda like 2009) would work the best for the BJP if it has to reach 175+ seats. Else it will never go beyond 130-140 seats. With around 175 seats, the likes of Jayalalitha, Naveen Patnaik and other smaller groups with 15-20 seats would be easier to co-opt into the NDA fold. Modi's excellent personal rapport with Jaya and Patnaik would also come handy in such a scenario.
The days of the polarization of the Hindu votes are over and those voters won't come together to vote for one party again unless something like Ayodhya happens again. Modi will only help to bring all the anti BJP parties to one common platform with the Congress. Then there's also the bigger question of Modi's appeal outside Gujarat - till date he has campaigned in many states elections but has failed to leave his mark in any of them so I really don't think he can be the National Leader BJP is looking for. Methinks BJP will go into Lok Sabha 2014 without a leader and then after the elections if the results are favorable then they will select a leader. This will definitely lead to much infighting before the elections and will hurt the party but I don't see the BJP deciding the leadership issue before the elections.

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Another huge factor in favour of Modi is his resourcefulness for the BJP. With the corporate India firmly behind him' date=' he could be the biggest fund raiser for the party and would surely demand his due. There were media reports which said BJP was short of funds in the UP assembly elections and one of the primary reasons given was the lack of money flowing from Gujarat as Modi wasn't on talking terms with Gadkari.[/quote'] BJP leaders criticize Narendra Modi fund-raising drive Link :giggle:

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Are ye chote chote 100-200 crores ki baat choro, I was referring to the corporate funding from the bigger corporate houses. BTW always take TOI Ahmedabad's edition news about Modi with a pinch of salt. They have been running a sustained campaign against him ever since TOI Journo Manoj Mitta's name figured in the SIT report as one who prominently drafted Sanjiv Bhatt's affidavit along with Teesta Setalvad. They even dragged SIT chief Raghavan in their anit Modi campaign but had to retract from their 'exclusive' about Gujarat Govt paying for Raghavan's UK trip. If you were to go by TOI Ahmedabad's reports, Modi has already lost the Gujrat assembly elections, such is the bias.

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lol you guys are making plans how BJP can come into power .Mark my words, BJP willl never come to Power again .Its Cong Congress and Congress from here on.Once they project Modi as a PM, alll anti Modi votes will Polarize against BJP and they will lose more votes in turn .Modi is King of Gujarat ,but he is not even chaprasi outside gujrat . Mind you, I seriously don't care anymore ,as I have decided to vote only independent,and waste my vote because any likeness for both these national parties has gone blown now [ No more BJP or COngi for me ].

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Modi might have done mistakes during Godhra. But that guy is bloody brilliant. Hats off to him to make Gujarat what it is today.
The problem is that most of India and rest of the world does not see genocide as just 'mistakes' And you talk about Modi devoloping Gujrat. Do you know the numbers before Modi was CM? Gujrat was already a success tory and no matter who would have been CM would have developed at similar rate. If you really want to see grassroot success, look at Bihar under Nitish

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^actually agree partly, When he took over Gujarat had gone through deadly earthquake. Plus its not only industry, the agricultural growth is best in entire India..You need to give him credit for that for sure.

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RSS mouthpiece questions Narendra Modi's style of functioning NEW DELHI: In yet another instance of growing feud within BJP and the Sangh Parivar, an article in a RSS mouthpiece has criticised Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi for his style of functioning and also indicated that the party has several other Prime Ministerial candidates. The article, which figures in the latest issue of 'Panchajanya,' says it is being felt that Modi needs to do a rethink about his style of functioning and organisational capabilities. "The role of Narendra Modi in the Sanjay Joshi episode at BJP's national executive meeting in Mumbai is worth pondering over," the article states. Modi had insisted that he will attend the conclave only if his bete noire Sanjay Joshi resigns from BJP national executive. The party bowed to his demand. The article further points out that it is a mystery why Modi, a staunch believer of the Sangh ideology, could not deal with his anger towards his fellow RSS worker Joshi. "By making the presence of Sanjay Joshi at the BJP national executive a prestige issue, why did he (Modi) give the media an opportunity to spread misinformation about the Sangh and BJP?" the article said. In a dig at Modi's Prime Ministerial ambitions, the article also states that BJP has several chief ministers and central leaders who are capable of being its Prime Ministerial candidate and hence the decision on this matter should be made after the general elections. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/RSS-mouthpiece-questions-Narendra-Modis-style-of-functioning/articleshow/13745366.cms

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Anti-Modi show bombs, Keshubhai tries old lines The much-hyped show of strength held by former chief minister Keshubhai Patel against Chief Minister Narendra Modi at Dholka town in Ahmedabad district on Saturday evening turned out to be damp squib with hardly 3,000-odd people turning up at the venue against the expected 50,000.:hysterical::hysterical: http://www.indianexpress.com/news/antimodi-show-bombs-keshubhai-tries-old-lines/957263/

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