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The Narendra Modi thread


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The Narendra Modi thread  

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Odds appear to be stacking up against Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi in his home state ahead of the crucial assembly elections later this year. With the disenchanted leaders of the saffron brigade coming together, BJP party workers are showing signs of being unnerved. And justifiably so as the tallest leader of the Patel community and former Chief Minister, Keshubhai Patel, has adopted a stand more aggressive than ever before. What is all the more significant is that Keshubhai now intends to visit New Delhi and inform the BJP high-command, aka L.K. Advani, about the developing situation in Gujarat. With the rift between Modi and Advani out in the open, Keshubhai's move is likely to spell trouble for the current CM, who is eyeing his propulsion to New Delhi after a spectacular show of strength in the forthcoming election in the state. Keshubhai, along with Modi's former MoS home, Gordhan Zadafia, has been busy mobilising the Patel community, which is yet to forget the unceremonious ouster of Keshubapa to make place for Modi as the chief minister. Interestingly, Modi has been successful in ousting all his rivals in the Gujarat BJP, beginning with former chief ministers Shankarsinh Vaghela, Suresh Mehta, Keshubhai and finally Sanjay Joshi, with the blessings of his one-time mentor Advani, who seems to be getting the rough end of the stick now. If Keshubhai's ouster had angered the Patel community, then Modi's run-in with the Brahmin community in the state too has had its repercussions. While the alleged political murder of Haren Pandya continues to be a sore point for the community, his sidelining of the former speaker Ashok Bhatt, former minister of health Nalin Bhatt and the latest ouster of Sanjay Joshi have only added fuel to the community's anger. Modi's relations with Vishwa Hindu Parishad heavyweight Pravin Togadia too have not been friendly. Togadia and Modi fell out soon after the 2002 assembly elections when the VHP leader was sidelined in state polity. The anti-Modi axis now formed in the state also tends to gain from this acrimony. "If the new formation can retain its vivacity, it will end up causing unimaginable damage to the party in the forthcoming election," said a BJP member from Ahmedabad. Even though the meeting held at Keshubhai's residence on Wednesday ended without any concrete decision, it assumed extra significance in the backdrop of the events recounted above. Former MoS home and the president of Mahagujarat Janata Party (MJP), a splinter outfit born out of BJP, Gordhan Zadafia, told Mail Today that the leaders who met were primarily sevaks of the RSS and had met in that capacity. The statement was underscored by the presence of senior RSS Pracharak Bhaskarrao Damle at the venue. Modi's scheme of collecting funds from the people through "dhandaan" too has backfired and stories of excesses by the party men are surfacing now. "This is not the best way to go about it and things are not looking right," said another party worker.
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/modi-gaining-national-ground-but-losing-grip-on-state/1/198468.html
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I think its the other way round - he is gaining more control and power in his state while at the National level, despite small victories like getting Sanjay Joshi out of the National Executive, his position is still the same - within the BJP as well as within NDA's allies there are two groups - ones who love him and others who hate him and IMO this strong reaction from either side is the reason why he won't be the PM anytime soon. As for this "revolt" by these former CMs - all these leaders are past their expiry date and in 2007 also Keshubhai Patel and Suresh Mehta tried to bring all the Patels together but failed spectacularly in doing any damage to Modi. AFAIK Modi has become stronger than ever in Gujarat and those Sadbhawana Yatras he took out where he went on a fast in different cities in Gujarat have had some impact and no matter how hard these former CMs try, he will win the upcoming Assembly elections.

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I always think one should not be at the helm for more than 2 or 3 terms, thats about it. More you are in power, more you become corrupt because of power. Its happens to best of the best. I think Modi should not run for CM and probably groom his successor. I don't see BJP losing in Gujarat any time soon.

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I always think one should not be at the helm for more than 2 or 3 terms, thats about it. More you are in power, more you become corrupt because of power. Its happens to best of the best. I think Modi should not run for CM and probably groom his successor. I don't see BJP losing in Gujarat any time soon.
by the looks of things Modi may move to National Politics in 2014 but he will be the CM candidate in the upcoming elections and he may chose a successor after a few months.
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Modi should stay put where he is..Else BJP will never come to power at the National level.. The moment he comes in National Politics, it's gonna polarise all anti-Modi parties and Congress will benefit the most. If BJP wants to hand advantage on a platter to Congress, then bring Modi in the national politics.. Effing BJP & RSS.. WTF they are doing? Another epic screw up?

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Keshubhai Patel meets senior RSS leaders A day after meeting discontented and sidelined BJP leaders at his residence in Gandhinagar, veteran BJP leader Keshubhai Patel met senior Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) leaders in Mehsana on Thursday. The move assumes political significance as it seems Patel is making moves to garner support from all wings of RSS. The former chief minister had attended RSS's induction camp (prathamik varg) in the north Gujarat town. Sources close to Patel said, "He had visited Ganpat University, Kherva, near Mehsana, where the prathamik varg of RSS is organised. He met Praveen Ontia, one of the senior-most RSS leaders of the state and veteran RSS worker Bhaskarrao Damle. All three leaders held a closed-door meeting for at least an hour and a half."

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It's all Advani driven, he wants modi to be occupied in Gujarat so he keeps his nose out of national politics. There is a lot happening in BJP. I probably won't vote for modi ever but BJPs best chance is to go alone and start campaign 18 months in advance and portray modi as the PM otherwise they don't stand a chance

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Narendra Modi meets Advani, Vajpayee New Delhi: Amid growing dissensions and leadership tussle in the party, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi today called on BJP’s seniormost leaders Atal Bihari Vajpayee and LK Advani in New Delhi. Several BJP leaders still invoke Vajpayee, who has been ailing for the last few years, in their bid to gain more legitimacy and wider acceptability within the party. Modi’s meeting with Vajpayee appears to be one such attempt even as he is fast emerging as a prime ministerial candidate of the BJP in the next Lok Sabha elections. The former prime minister’s old pictures, speeches and poems are often used by the top leaders of the party because of his popularity and appeal within BJP and outside. Sources said Modi met Vajpayee to enquire about his health and seek his blessings. Before leaving for Ahmedabad, Modi also called on Advani. This meeting comes in the backdrop of Advani’s scathing attack on party president Nitin Gadkari—with whom Modi was hardly on talking terms till recently—on his blog on Thursday. Advani had hit out at Gadkari for some of the recent decisions in Uttar Pradesh elections, as well as in Karnataka and Jharkhand. Advani is Lok Sabha MP from Gandhinagar. Modi and Advani have also had differences on certain issues but the latter has also praised the chief minister profusely on different occasions on his blog and in his speeches. PTI

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Modi should stay put where he is..Else BJP will never come to power at the National level.. The moment he comes in National Politics, it's gonna polarise all anti-Modi parties and Congress will benefit the most. If BJP wants to hand advantage on a platter to Congress, then bring Modi in the national politics.. Effing BJP & RSS.. WTF they are doing? Another epic screw up?
I completely agree but now things have come to a stage where Modi going to the National stage is inevitable. But even if he does move to National politics, I don't see him becoming the PM candidate because there too many hurdles in his way.
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It's all Advani driven, he wants modi to be occupied in Gujarat so he keeps his nose out of national politics. There is a lot happening in BJP. I probably won't vote for modi ever but BJPs best chance is to go alone and start campaign 18 months in advance and portray modi as the PM otherwise they don't stand a chance
That would mean BJP getting less seats than 2009.
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2014 is make or break election for BJP...if its failed it will become a regional party with presence in only few states.. Modi must projected as leader and need to push few oldies backstage bring fresh faces its not impossible to do, high risk but worth taking

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Let's take the most optimistic scenario for the BJP(counting only the BJP not allies since their support will be contingent on Modi) in 2014: 1. UP - 30/80 2. Bihar - 10/40 3. Maharashtra - 30/48 (including Shiv Sena since they will gladly support Modi) 4. MP - 20/29 5. Rajasthan - 20/25 6. Karnataka - 15/28 7. Gujarat - 20/26 Throw in another 50 from AP, Assam, Chhatisgarh, Harayana, Delhi, Punjab, Orissa and they still don't cross 200 forget about 271. None of their allies except Shiv Sena is going to support a government with Modi at the helm. It will be political suicide if BJP makes Modi their PM candidate and despite what the internet residing middle class thinks the ground reality is that BJP has got it's ass handed to them on a platter wherever Modi has campaigned outside Gujarat.

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It will be political suicide if BJP makes Modi their PM candidate
i want BJP to take this chance...its not like the Super pseudo secularists save this country from communal-ism.. let us see whether our middle class really interested in developing this country or Not.. Who knows if Modi formed a team with clean image people in front anything can happen..[he cant go with same old people BJP have in front office now]
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Let's take the most optimistic scenario for the BJP(counting only the BJP not allies since their support will be contingent on Modi) in 2014: 1. UP - 30/80 2. Bihar - 10/40 3. Maharashtra - 30/48 (including Shiv Sena since they will gladly support Modi) 4. MP - 20/29 5. Rajasthan - 20/25 6. Karnataka - 15/28 7. Gujarat - 20/26 Throw in another 50 from AP, Assam, Chhatisgarh, Harayana, Delhi, Punjab, Orissa and they still don't cross 200 forget about 271. None of their allies except Shiv Sena is going to support a government with Modi at the helm. It will be political suicide if BJP makes Modi their PM candidate and despite what the internet residing middle class thinks the ground reality is that BJP has got it's ass handed to them on a platter wherever Modi has campaigned outside Gujarat.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Modi's biggest drawback will be that he will polarize all the anti-BJP vote and that will be disastrous for BJP. As for support for Modi - forget about the allies, even within his own party he will definitely be challenged by the likes of Sushma Swaraj or LK Advani or even Gadkari for the leadership and as you rightly said he has failed every time he has campaigned outside Gujarat. I don't think BJP will name anyone as their PM candidate before the elections. The leadership issue will be decided only if and when NDA is in a position to form the Govt.
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I don't think BJP will name anyone as their PM candidate before the elections. The leadership issue will be decided only if and when NDA is in a position to form the Govt.
That will be another LOL moment for the BJP since they are the ones who made all this hue and cry about Congress not naming a PM candidate prior to elections on previous occasions. BJP had a golden opportunity to become a national force capable of getting a majority on their own in the 90s but the communal politics of Advani and his cronies ensured it did not happen. They got taken away by their meteoric rise based on a communal agenda, but did not realize that ultimately people are going to look for an alternative development plan rather than how many masjids were destroyed. Vajpayee had the right idea a vision for the party but unfortunately he was too old and easily got sidelined by the likes of Modi and Advani.
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Let's take the most optimistic scenario for the BJP(counting only the BJP not allies since their support will be contingent on Modi) in 2014: 1. UP - 30/80 2. Bihar - 10/40 3. Maharashtra - 30/48 (including Shiv Sena since they will gladly support Modi) 4. MP - 20/29 5. Rajasthan - 20/25 6. Karnataka - 15/28 7. Gujarat - 20/26 Throw in another 50 from AP, Assam, Chhatisgarh, Harayana, Delhi, Punjab, Orissa and they still don't cross 200 forget about 271. None of their allies except Shiv Sena is going to support a government with Modi at the helm. It will be political suicide if BJP makes Modi their PM candidate and despite what the internet residing middle class thinks the ground reality is that BJP has got it's ass handed to them on a platter wherever Modi has campaigned outside Gujarat.
BJP's main problem is it does not have any presence in TN(39), WB (42), Kerala(20) and minimal presence in AP(42) and Orrisa(21) ,J&K(6) and northeast another 15 seats. so overall they are contesting almost 180 seats less than Congress. So if they have to win on their own (along with Akali Dal and SS) by projecting Modi as the PM they have to perform well in the above states u mentioned.
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