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The Narendra Modi thread


1983-2011

The Narendra Modi thread  

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I don't think BJP will name anyone as their PM candidate before the elections. The leadership issue will be decided only if and when NDA is in a position to form the Govt.
If BJP has little bit of sense then it should discuss the issue with NDA partners and also those who used to be NDA partners (Like TMC, BJD, TDP, AIADMK) and finalise a candidate ASAP. Ideally Arun Jaitly or Nitish Kumar.. Dimaag fir gaya hain kachchadhariyon ka..They're the prime reason Congress keeps on making a winning alliance and surviving..
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They have no other choice. Things are happening for Modi. If the conomy continues to get messed which I know it will' date= I think Indian will serious consider the proven development option.
whats happening with him?? Getting Sanjay Joshi out of the National Executive or ignoring LK Advani etc are petty things which do not grow his stature in any way. JDU is still opposed to him and I don't see many new allies joining NDA if he is the leader. Modi might be a proven development option in his state but outside Gujarat he has failed time and again.
2014 is make or break election for BJP...if its failed it will become a regional party with presence in only few states.. Modi must projected as leader and need to push few oldies backstage bring fresh faces its not impossible to do, high risk but worth taking
which oldies are you talking about?? LK Advani doesn't have that much of power now. AB Vajpayee is no longer active. Murli Manohar Joshi is not in any kind of position to challenge for the leadership. Also, there aren't very many fresh faces who can suddenly be thrown into national politics with no opposition from the leaders currently in important organizational positions in BJP. The state leaders like Dr. Raman Singh, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Vasundhra Raje etc don't have any appeal outside their own states. If he is projected as leader then it will unite all the opposition parties and give them so much ammunition that BJP's election prospects will be over before the election actually happens. Projecting him as leader won't be a gamble but a sure shot loss.
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If BJP has little bit of sense then it should discuss the issue with NDA partners and also those who used to be NDA partners (Like TMC, BJD, TDP, AIADMK) and finalise a candidate ASAP. Ideally Arun Jaitly or Nitish Kumar.. Dimaag fir gaya hain kachchadhariyon ka..They're the prime reason Congress keeps on making a winning alliance and surviving..
Nitish Kumar would be the ideal choice, but there is zero practical chance of it happening because the BJP will never agree to a PM candidate from outside the party. Not only does he have a good development record, but he also has the most pan India appeal out of all possible BJP candidates. Despite my dislike for the BJP I would happily cast my vote for Nitish Kumar like I did for Vajpayee. He'll probably end up as the best PM India never had like Warne.
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BJP's main problem is it does not have any presence in TN(39)' date= WB (42), Kerala(20) and minimal presence in AP(42) and Orrisa(21) ,J&K(6) and northeast another 15 seats. so overall they are contesting almost 180 seats less than Congress. So if they have to win on their own (along with Akali Dal and SS) by projecting Modi as the PM they have to perform well in the above states u mentioned.
it doesn't have much of a presence in these states but there are allies who have a presence and will easily join NDA if BJP performs well in the states where it is strong. In TN AIADMK will definitely win a very large number of the 39 seats and they can join NDA. In WB there's TMC and they also can join if needed. In Orrisa there's BJD who used to be partners and will definitely join again if needed. In AP there's TDP and now there's also YSR Congress - I think Jagan Reddy will be happy to join any coalition other than one led by Congress. Yeah, BJP is weak and doesn't have much of a presence in quite a few states but Cong also is set to lose many seats in many states: In Andhra Pradesh they have become extremely weak with YSR's death and the emergence of Jagan Reddy - Cong will lose quite a few seats there. Due to some mistakes on the part of SP, Congress won over 20 seats in UP but it won't come anywhere near that number this time. They won around 20 seats in Rajasthan but have become quite weak since then. They will lose a few in Kerela and Maharashtra as well.
If BJP has little bit of sense then it should discuss the issue with NDA partners and also those who used to be NDA partners (Like TMC, BJD, TDP, AIADMK) and finalise a candidate ASAP. Ideally Arun Jaitly or Nitish Kumar.. Dimaag fir gaya hain kachchadhariyon ka..They're the prime reason Congress keeps on making a winning alliance and surviving..
he will be my choice too. People say that Arun Jaitley and Modi can become a pair like Vajpayee and Advani :hmmm:
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it doesn't have much of a presence in these states but there are allies who have a presence and will easily join NDA if BJP performs well in the states where it is strong. In TN AIADMK will definitely win a very large number of the 39 seats and they can join NDA. In WB there's TMC and they also can join if needed. In Orrisa there's BJD who used to be partners and will definitely join again if needed. In AP there's TDP and now there's also YSR Congress - I think Jagan Reddy will be happy to join any coalition other than one led by Congress. Yeah, BJP is weak and doesn't have much of a presence in quite a few states but Cong also is set to lose many seats in many states:
That will work only if Modi is kept as far away from national politics as possible. As you rightly mentioned earlier, none of these potential coalition partners is even going to touch BJP with a 10 foot pole if Modi has any significant role in the government. Despite my dislike for the BJP, I am quite sick of the current Congress government, but I would prefer to have this economic stagnation and corruption over Modi becoming the PM and from my understanding that is quite a prevalent sentiment. BJP actually has a good chance in the next elections if it can isolate the hawks and work proactively with potential coalition partners.
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There are 3 forces working against each other in BJP.. 1. Core BJP politicians who are pragmatic and followers of Vajpayee (Nor necessarily RSS dictated). 2. RSS and other right wing organisations (messing up BJP with their stupid candidates like that Motu Gadhkari)... :facepalm: 3. Emerging regional leader Modi (who's in a hurry) and his supporters (mainly Non '1' & Non '2'). These 3 forces will :fight: with each other and Congress will make a winning alliance and kick sorry arses of BJP again.. :hehe:

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That will work only if Modi is kept as far away from national politics as possible. As you rightly mentioned earlier' date=' none of these potential coalition partners is even going to touch BJP with a 10 foot pole if Modi has any significant role in the government. Despite my dislike for the BJP, I am quite sick of the current Congress government, but I would prefer to have this economic stagnation and corruption over Modi becoming the PM and from my understanding that is quite a prevalent sentiment. [b']BJP actually has a good chance in the next elections if it can isolate the hawks and work proactively with potential coalition partners.
IMO BJP needs two things to happen in order to win the next elections: 1. Rahul Baba as the UPA's PM candidate :D 2. Seniors BJP leaders should stop trying to sabotage each other's chances for the leadership and try to work together. Now the 1st part looks certain to happen but I'm not sure about the 2nd.
There are 3 forces working against each other in BJP.. 1. Core BJP politicians who are pragmatic and followers of Vajpayee (Nor necessarily RSS dictated). 2. RSS and other right wing organisations (messing up BJP with their stupid candidates like that Motu Gadhkari)... :facepalm: 3. Emerging regional leader Modi (who's in a hurry) and his supporters (mainly Non '1' & Non '2'). These 3 forces will :fight: with each other and Congress will make a winning alliance and kick sorry arses of BJP again.. :hehe:
actually he hasn't done that badly. He was a very junior leader and was made President when BJP was at its lowest in many years and his job was to work together with the senior leaders. He has brought in many professionals in the party and has introduced the system of tickets being distributed after having surveys done (it hasn't always been followed and hasn't worked in all the cases but is still better than giving tickets to cronies.) He had been doing his job pretty well but now suddenly it seems as if he also has aspirations for the PM's post :facepalm:
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I dont think there is any consensus candidate. I always thought Pramod Mahajan was the next PM candidate, too bad what happened to him. Jaitley can be a good PM but Sushma jee wont agree .. Problem is that all main leaders want to be the next PM candidate and none of them have a solid base across the country.

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The enemies within

All through childhood my mother would tell me: “You have to work hard to get whatever is in your destiny. But, remember, you can never get more than you are destined to get and never before the time that you are destined to get it.’’ I am reminded of that again as I watch senior BJP leader LK Advani fight against his destiny to get to the Prime Minister’s Office in New Delhi. Perhaps it is in his destiny, perhaps not. But he is, at least, putting up a great fight for it and it is good to see that the man who wanted us to believe that the BJP was a party with a difference, is himself now at the head of those differences with so many others in the organisation. However, it is satisfying to know that what we have been saying all along about the BJP – that it is actually doing worse than the Congress even though the Congress might seem so scatter-brained and unable to hold its act together – is now being reiterated by the grand old man of that very party. And though it might be the real threat of the denial of his ambition to become PM that might have brought forth the realisation of something that was visible from miles away for anyone who cared to see, perhaps it is time for others in the BJP to heed Advani’s warning. The party is usually better at hiding its bickering than is the Congress under similar cicumstances. Advani’s latest diatribe seems to be aimed at party president Nitin Gadkari but it is not just Advani who is attempting to bring him down a peg or two. Gadkari is already on record that he wants to contest the next election from Nagpur, a Congress fortress that alone stayed with the party even when it was swept out of Vidarbha by the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance in 2004. The only time the Congress conceded Nagpur to the BJP was when a party rebel – Banwarilal Purohit – brought a few Congress tricks to the bag when he had contested on a BJP ticket in the early Nineties. He soon fell out with both Gadkari and Pramod Mahajan, then general secretary in charge of Maharashtra, and returned to the Congress’s fold as did the constituency. Now Gadkari himself is unable to espy the mischief afoot against him in his home town by his own men — those who claim proximity to him have already begun to work the wires to ensure that he does not win 2014, not withstanding the RSS headquartered there. And the Congress has, of course, opened out its arms to such backstabbers and is wholeheartedly aiding their game plan. Whether, then, Gadkari overcomes the image of being a loser, as Advani has suggested in his blog yesterday, remains to be seen. But it is remarkable that the party with a difference has had some more differences surfacing a day after Advani’s admonition to his party men: an editorial in their party mouth piece, the Kamal Sandesh, which warns Narendra Modi against his arrogance, his inability to take party men along and his dictatorial ways. Now that is what we have been saying all along about the Gujarat chief minister — and being called all sorts of names for that observation. So what would his supporters now call Advani? Clearly, Advani has more friends in the BJP than Modi does and so the orchestration has begun towards 2014 — though, I believe, the national party leaders are waiting with bated breath to see how the results to the Gujarat Assembly elections this December might go before really outing themselves. There is a whole group of anti-Modi people who despair that he might win again but there are many in the BJP whose whispers are now getting louder as they point to figures and statistics to prove that neither Gujarat nor its chief minister is doing as well as he might wish to project to the rest of the world. The meeting of anti-Modi Gujarat BJP heavyweights earlier this week, which was an open declaration of war against Modi, could not have happened without some covert support from central leaders and is a clear indicator that the party is heading toward a clear-cut division of camps, if not a split – those for and those against letting Modi out of Gujarat. Ironically, those who want to confine Modi to Gujarat also wish to see him lose Gujarat in December for that would truly clip his wings even if he might then redouble his efforts to seek a national role for himself. As I gather from some Congress leaders I spoke to, that is just what they are waiting for — and not just because that would mean they regain control of one among India’s most prosperous states. If the BJP fears handing over the party nationally to Modi, the Congress seems to be simply looking forward to just that prospect. For while Modi’s national ascension might cut short the ambitions of the numerous BJP leaders hoping to become PM in case of a NDA victory, the Congress is certain that that NDA victory will never come to pass with Modi at the helm – for they would then be the automatic beneficiaries of the consolidation of votes against the BJP. Now, whichever way the BJP might resolve this very real headache growing in the party, my money is on Advani, even though I am no fan of the architect of the demolition of the Babri Masjid. I had said earlier in this blog (see Singly Political `Not his own man’, September 23, 2011) that Advani was an old fox; he would never le go and could be expected to outfox all the foxes, old and new, in both the RSS and the BJP when the RSS had forced him to defer his ambition to be PM. Not for nothing did Advani toil hard to bring the BJP up from two seats in the Lok Sabha in 1984 to more than 80 in the next Lok Sabha and then steadily worked towards the formation of a government at the Centre. But, sadly, he was probably never destined: the Jain havala scam tripped him up and he had to concede first place to Atal Behari Vajpayee. When, in 2004, it seemed as though they would have to retire Vajpayee after the campaign and Advani then would become the automatic choice for PM, destiny tripped him up again. Then destiny struck again in 2009 when every body believed that this so-called iron man of the BJP had all but tripped up the so-called weakest prime minister in Indian history — Dr Manmohan Singh still pipped Advani to the post. Now, for once, will destiny be on his side in this battle against the younger BJP leaders? There could be many twists in the tale between now and 2014. But with friends like these in their own party, which BJP leader — Advani, Modi, Gadkari or any of the others — needs any enemies from outer space? I am reminded of what Vilasrao Deshmukh had said when he was sacked in 2003 during his first term as chief minister: gairon ne nahin, apnon ne hee maara hai (I have been betrayed not by others but by my own people). Ditto BJP, circa 2014?
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IMO BJP needs two things to happen in order to win the next elections: 1. Rahul Baba as the UPA's PM candidate :D 2. Seniors BJP leaders should stop trying to sabotage each other's chances for the leadership and try to work together. Now the 1st part looks certain to happen but I'm not sure about the 2nd.
I don't think the Congress is stupid enough to project Rahul Gandhi as the next PM candidate. He might become the next PM, but I really doubt that he will be projected as such before the elections after the UP fiasco. They'll stick to their "Candidate will be chosen after elections" routine. BJP is a gone case for the time being, IMO. As much as a I dislike the BJP a strong opposition is necessary for a vibrant democracy and they have floundered on every possible scenario since they put Vajpayee on the sidelines. I would love for BJP to recognize the fact that they don't have any leader at their helm and project Nitish Kumar as a candidate for PM, but I know it's not going to happen.
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whats happening with him?? Getting Sanjay Joshi out of the National Executive or ignoring LK Advani etc are petty things which do not grow his stature in any way. JDU is still opposed to him and I don't see many new allies joining NDA if he is the leader. Modi might be a proven development option in his state but outside Gujarat he has failed time and again..
What I meant was in terms of economy and lack of governance. Truth is politics and elections are as much about individuals and their policies as it is about the environment in the country at the time. I struggle to see time in India in last 15-20 years where we have had such abysmal levels of missteps by the party in centre. Truth is Indian economy is on the edge and might just fall of it. When sh*t hits the fan, all options will be on the table for Indian public including Modi. As for the second bit, again the scenarios at the time of election will determine the failing or succeeding. If things continue to go bad, past election will have little to no impact.
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What I meant was in terms of economy and lack of governance. Truth is politics and elections are as much about individuals and their policies as it is about the environment in the country at the time. I struggle to see time in India in last 15-20 years where we have had such abysmal levels of missteps by the party in centre. Truth is Indian economy is on the edge and might just fall of it. When sh*t hits the fan, all options will be on the table for Indian public including Modi. As for the second bit, again the scenarios at the time of election will determine the failing or succeeding. If things continue to go bad, past election will have little to no impact.
The thing is that most Indians don't understand economics, they will vote for their local favorites and can be easily persuaded by caste, religion, quota etc: Look at mamta banerjee, what economic policies did she suggest to win (at least im not aware of any). She just won cuz people thought things are bad lets try the other party but not on policies
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I don't think the Congress is stupid enough to project Rahul Gandhi as the next PM candidate. He might become the next PM' date= but I really doubt that he will be projected as such before the elections after the UP fiasco. They'll stick to their "Candidate will be chosen after elections" routine. BJP is a gone case for the time being, IMO. As much as a I dislike the BJP a strong opposition is necessary for a vibrant democracy and they have floundered on every possible scenario since they put Vajpayee on the sidelines. I would love for BJP to recognize the fact that they don't have any leader at their helm and project Nitish Kumar as a candidate for PM, but I know it's not going to happen.
I don't think there is any chance at all of Congress going into the next elections with MMS as the PM candidate and in such a scenario, whether they announce it or not, Rahul Gandhi will be the PM candidate by default. I think that some of the Congress workers realize that Rahul Gandhi is not a leader capable of winning elections on his own but they have spent so much time and energy in building him up as the next big thing in Indian politics that now they have no choice but to project him. Also, the Cong does not have anyone other than Members/Loyalists of Gandhi family who can be the PM candidate. The UP elections happened in March 2012, the Lok Sabha elections will most probably happen in March 2014 - a gap of 2 years and in these 2 years there will be elections in many states and success in even one of those states will be enough for the Cong workers/leaders to once again sing "Rahul Gandhi Zindabad"
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Nitish Kumar as NDA's PM candidate? He will struggle to win in Bihar if he parts ways with the BJP. Also, assuming Modi is BJP's PM candidate and Nitish Kumar decides to break ties with BJP, the only other option for him would be to tie up with the Congress and add Ram Vilas Paswan (who has a hold over 4-5% dalit votes across Bihar). On its own, the JDU will not win a majority in Bihar given the caste equations in the state. Next question is how much appeal does he have outside Bihar? Also, how can someone with a group of no more than 21-22 LS seats expect to be the leader of a stable coalition government? Modi is the BJP's best bet if it decides to name a PM candidate for 2014. As good as Arun Jaitley is, he has absolutely no mass base of his own. A very good strategist, but never a mass leader. The comparison with Vajpayee isn't quite correct either. Vajpayee on his own won the BJP at least 40-50 seats in the late 90s propelling the NDA to power. Don't think Jaitley has the charisma to win even 10-15 seats. The other candidates are Sushma Swaraj who doesn't have as much wider acceptability in the party. Among the BJP CMs, Dr. Raman Singh could be a dark horse if it comes to deciding a consensus candidate but don't see BJP fighting the 2014 elections with him as their PM candidate. Modi's projection as PM will see en-mass voting by the muslims in favour of the congress but that will also lead to polarization of the Hindu votes, primarily the middle class voters from urban and semi urban centres in North and West, the very same group which voted for MMS in 2009 as the PM and which is disenchanted with the UPA govt's appalling performance. A highly polarised election scenario with a positive agenda for development (without too much harping on any anti muslim agenda like 2009) would work the best for the BJP if it has to reach 175+ seats. Else it will never go beyond 130-140 seats. With around 175 seats, the likes of Jayalalitha, Naveen Patnaik and other smaller groups with 15-20 seats would be easier to co-opt into the NDA fold. Modi's excellent personal rapport with Jaya and Patnaik would also come handy in such a scenario.

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The thing is that most Indians don't understand economics, they will vote for their local favorites and can be easily persuaded by caste, religion, quota etc: Look at mamta banerjee, what economic policies did she suggest to win (at least im not aware of any). She just won cuz people thought things are bad lets try the other party but not on policies
+10 No singular candidate can influence out great country. Not today more than ever before
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Modi single handedly has cut down on vote bank politics in Gujarat. There was "Patel Raj" in Gujarat more so in saurashtra region. He proved in last election, he can win without playing vote bank politics. Even muslims have started to vote for him in Gujarat. BJP has to take that chance. They may lose badly, so be it, but there is outside chance they may win it. Lot of Indian Youth, middle class will vote for him. If they don't go with Modi, project Sushma Swaraj as PM. Right now BJP should stay united, UPA is on suicidal mission. Anna and Ramdev are doing the oppositions job. BJP has to resolve internal differences. Party is bigger than the individuals. You have to give credit to Sonia mataji for keeping his house united..BJP should learn from that.

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