seedhi Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Anti-incumbency would have helped NDA big time in 2014' date=' so am not sure BJP's best chance was with Modi[/quote']There was anti-incumbency in 2009 as well. BJP just didn't have the right kind of leader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 unfortunately its a stand the BJP are forced to take. I dont think whats happening is good. But it probably needed to happen well before an election year. What Modi needs to do is aim to get the BJP in the 140-160 seat zone. From there if he cannot form government then sit tight. Looking at the economic indicators of India governing is going to get a lot harder. There is nothing saying that Modi has only one shot. I personally think 2014 needs to used as a springboard. Modi is the only mass leader who the BJP have. Their options were always limited to him. Project Modi as the leader and concentrate on your own tally. Thats what the BJP needs to do. There will be assembly elections in Odisha especially. Good chance that the BJP might emerge kingmaker in that forcing the Biju Janta Dal to support them from the outside. 2014 was the best possible chance the BJP had - UPA has been embroiled in one scam after another, Ministers have had to resign, coalition partners have left, Pappu is still not ready to accept a leadership role (by that I mean PM candidate), economy is doing badly, crime rate is increasing with every passing day (especially in the Nations Capital, which is also Cong ruled). What BJP needed was to go into the election with as many pre poll alliances as possible - and that could have been done if they had gone under collective leadership of various seniors or under a consensus nominee of the NDA (probably Advani) but what they have done is to make sure that their biggest partner (JDU) leaves and the door is closed for any further alliances with other parties due to Modi. Total disaster IMO. whenever he has campaigned outside Gujarat, BJP has failed. He may be a mass leader in Gujarat but outside Gujarat he's just famous (or infamous, whichever way you look at it) - not a mass leader. As far as Bihar goes' date='[b'] IMO its time for the BJP to ensure that reelection take place in Bihar. Even if they dont do well in what follows its better to get a ground reality now than wait for 2014. As long as the CM has majority (which Nitish has) there's no provision which allows for a re-election simply because the ruling coalition fell apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 The BJP need to make tough decisions. Even ones which can or do hurt them. I am liking the way Rajnath singh has gone about his business. Was firm in promoting Raje as the face of BJP Rajasthan and now is firm with Modi being campaign chief. Get back Yeddy as the mass leader for the Karanataka unit should be next on his list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 The BJP need to make tough decisions. Even ones which can or do hurt them. I am liking the way Rajnath singh has gone about his business. Was firm in promoting Raje as the face of BJP Rajasthan and now is firm with Modi being campaign chief. Get back Yeddy as the mass leader for the Karanataka unit should be next on his list. He hasn't done anything - he's just doing what seniors and RSS are telling him to. Gadkari, despite some embarrassing moments, was far better IMO. Sure!!!! attack Congress for corruption one day and then re-induct Yeddy in the party the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 2014 was the best possible chance the BJP had - UPA has been embroiled in one scam after another, Ministers have had to resign, coalition partners have left, Pappu is still not ready to accept a leadership role (by that I mean PM candidate), economy is doing badly, crime rate is increasing with every passing day (especially in the Nations Capital, which is also Cong ruled). What BJP needed was to go into the election with as many pre poll alliances as possible - and that could have been done if they had gone under collective leadership of various seniors or under a consensus nominee of the NDA (probably Advani) but what they have done is to make sure that their biggest partner (JDU) leaves and the door is closed for any further alliances with other parties due to Modi. Total disaster IMO. whenever he has campaigned outside Gujarat, BJP has failed. He may be a mass leader in Gujarat but outside Gujarat he's just famous (or infamous, whichever way you look at it) - not a mass leader. As long as the CM has majority (which Nitish has) there's no provision which allows for a re-election simply because the ruling coalition fell apart. he has called for confidence motion. I dont think he has the numbers. Unless a few MLA's split from their parties. on the other issue remains to be seen. Even the likes of Atal Bihari fought multiple elections in the aftermath of the Janata party breaking up. Even sonia Gandhi lost badly in 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravishingravi Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Sure!!!! attack Congress for corruption one day and then re-induct Yeddy in the party the next day. Reality of politics in India. It cost them dearly in Karnataka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 he has called for confidence motion. I dont think he has the numbers. Unless a few MLA's split from their parties. on the other issue remains to be seen. Even the likes of Atal Bihari fought multiple elections in the aftermath of the Janata party breaking up. Even sonia Gandhi lost badly in 1999. JDU has 118 MLAs and majority needed is 122. there are 6 independents IIRC and all of them will support him. Nitish is not a fool to break a coalition without being 100% certain that he had the numbers to carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Reality of politics in India. It cost them dearly in Karnataka. but they won't have him back now and even if they want, he isn't coming back - at least not for a few years till he has tried and failed with his own party in a couple of elections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 but they won't have him back now and even if they want' date=' he isn't coming back - at least not for a few years till he has tried and failed with his own party in a couple of elections.[/quote'] Rajnath and Yeddy go a way back in the RSS. He just needs an arm around him. I dont think Yeddy has been convicted of anything. Biggest problem with Gadkari was that he dithered a lot. No decisions either way. and your right on the numbers. Nitish does appear to have them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asterix Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 One thing sure, this break is not permanent. JDU will never go to Congress. There's lots of possibilities after election.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Modi has a power base in Gujarat which funds most of the BJP campaign. Advani has no power base or had no power base. Thats the difference. Quite frankly if the Gujarat BJP turns off the money tap even the RSS will be brought to its knees. The only way Modi can be defeated if somebody from within Guj unseats him. Till that happens its Modi for the next 2-3 elections for the BJP Advani doesn't really need a "power base" - he is the founder of the party and he has one thing which Modi doesn't (and probably never will have) - respect across party lines and acceptability with allies. That counts for a lot more than having a powerbase. you are massively underestimating other leaders and their networks. Modi started with his fundraising a few years ago while others in the party have been at it for decades and know how to do it better than him. Besdies, the corporate leaders who give funds aren't stupid - if they think that Modi does have acceptability even within his won party then they will give money to other leaders as well. Modi has already made so many enemies that all it would take to completely finish him off would be a defeat (irrespective of the margin) in 2014 elections with him as the leader of the BJP. In his hurry to become the PM candidate he has just bulldozed his way to the Campaign Chief's position without looking at who all he is trampling on his way and how many powerful people he is antagonizing. All those who are not in his favour will sit patiently and wait for BJP's failure (which will happen if they go with him as the PM candidate) under him and then they will all come together bring him down - this has happened many, many times in Indian politics but as usual, Modi hasn't learned anything from history and continues to antagonize powerful people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Rajnath and Yeddy go a way back in the RSS. He just needs an arm around him. I dont think Yeddy has been convicted of anything. Biggest problem with Gadkari was that he dithered a lot. No decisions either way. and your right on the numbers. Nitish does appear to have them. Yeddy is corrupt and everyone (be it the people or the opposition) knows it and thats what matters. BJP may have lost K'taka because of his exit but in the Lok Sabha elections they will benefit because the people will realize that they are willing to throw out their biggest leader in the state because he was corrupt. Besides, I am not sure the K'taka Govt will do that well - there are too many CM candidates which will result in infighting so there may be some anti-incumbency as well. Gadkari tried to unite the party thats why it looked like he was dithering a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 One thing sure' date= this break is not permanent. JDU will never go to Congress. There's lots of possibilities after election.... +1 JDU won't go into the elections as part of UPA but after the elections if Cong has enough seats then they can certainly support the UPA Govt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSK Fan Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 There was anti-incumbency in 2009 as well. BJP just didn't have the right kind of leader. This time its more marked and worse. People are fed up of the congress and want an alternative. NDA had a very good chance whoever the leader was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bulbul Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 S=G, we can debate about Modi's effect on alliance or his dictator style leadership , but one thing is sure without him BJP wont have a leader.You cant go to a national election without leader in top position. For all the talk of Advani he is not able to do anything in last election,in fact Con party even won 200 seats with all those corruption issues. Its not easy simply to beat Conparty taking only corruption as a issue and Advani as leader. Its better to go down in blaze of glory than just vanish without trace. Advani's time is over he can only be a mentor now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vayuu1 Posted June 16, 2013 Author Share Posted June 16, 2013 Only the internet youths and the middle class city dwellers. Not to forget NRIs. the ones in towns and villages are not That's where u r wrong there are lot of people even in town and villages who like him.not to forget he comes from rural and humble background so that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSK Fan Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 S=G, we can debate about Modi's effect on alliance or his dictator style leadership , but one thing is sure without him BJP wont have a leader.You cant go to a national election without leader in top position. For all the talk of Advani he is not able to do anything in last election,in fact Con party even won 200 seats with all those corruption issues. Its not easy simply to beat Conparty taking only corruption as a issue and Advani as leader. Its better to go down in blaze of glory than just vanish without trace. Advani's time is over he can only be a mentor now. Dude, congress has already handed over the election to NDA on a platter. People are fed up of scams, corruption and MMS. All BJP had to do was not score an own goal and NDA would have won comfortably under any other leader. In fact, as I have said, I would have voted for Nitish or Advani or anyone else of BJP except Modi. Exactly how effective Modi is as a leader outside Gujarat, is yet to be seen. A good leader alos needs acceptance from all part (including all parts of his party) and Modi doesn't seem to have that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSK Fan Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 That's where u r wrong there are lot of people even in town and villages who like him.not to forget he comes from rural and humble background so that helps. Well, we will see that in the election, won't we. If what you say is true, BJP should get very near to a majority on it's own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seedhi Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 This time its more marked and worse. People are fed up of the congress and want an alternative. NDA had a very good chance whoever the leader wasThe best judge of which leader is going to get votes for the BJP is its rank and file. And they have spoken. How can the BJP ignore its most popular leader and then hope to do well in the elections as a party ? What good is the NDA if the BJP gets at most 120 seats which it will with a person like Advani, Sushma Swaraj or Jaitley -- who can hardly win a Lok Sabha seat on their own and who only generate disinterest within the cadre -- as its leader ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vayuu1 Posted June 16, 2013 Author Share Posted June 16, 2013 One true fact stated by Sushil kumar modi in his pc was :jab hamari jarurat thi tab ham secular the,Ab nahi to hum communal ho gye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts