vayuu1 Posted June 16, 2013 Author Share Posted June 16, 2013 Well' date=' we will see that in the election, won't we. If what you say is true, BJP should get very near to a majority on it's own[/quote'] Not really all they have to do is to have largest amount of seats amongst all parties ,that will do a lot of good for starter.I think Delhi Election will give us a better indication of 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Outsider Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 That's where u r wrong there are lot of people even in town and villages who like him.not to forget he comes from rural and humble background so that helps. Why hasn't it translated into seats for BJP outside Gujarat when Modi has campaigned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Outsider Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Not really all they have to do is to have largest amount of seats amongst all parties ' date='that will do a lot of good for starter.I think Delhi Election will give us a better indication of 2014[/quote'] Delhi election bares no resemblance to Indian elections because it is a highly urban territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Advani doesn't really need a "power base" - he is the founder of the party and he has one thing which Modi doesn't (and probably never will have) - respect across party lines and acceptability with allies. That counts for a lot more than having a powerbase. you are massively underestimating other leaders and their networks. Modi started with his fundraising a few years ago while others in the party have been at it for decades and know how to do it better than him. Besdies, the corporate leaders who give funds aren't stupid - if they think that Modi does have acceptability even within his won party then they will give money to other leaders as well. Modi has already made so many enemies that all it would take to completely finish him off would be a defeat (irrespective of the margin) in 2014 elections with him as the leader of the BJP. In his hurry to become the PM candidate he has just bulldozed his way to the Campaign Chief's position without looking at who all he is trampling on his way and how many powerful people he is antagonizing. All those who are not in his favour will sit patiently and wait for BJP's failure (which will happen if they go with him as the PM candidate) under him and then they will all come together bring him down - this has happened many, many times in Indian politics but as usual, Modi hasn't learned anything from history and continues to antagonize powerful people. What other leaders? As mentioned before the likes of Munde Raman and Raje are firmly behind him. The only objection comes from the likes of Uma Bharati. where is she in the other scheme of the bjp power? nowhere. Swaraj? is countered by Jaitley in Delhi. A huge chunk of the BJP funding comes via different avenues of the VHP. No leader barring Modi has access to whole sorts of funds. Not to mention the amabanis who are gujarati. Money wise Modi has it all sown up. In Mumbai he has kirit somaiya another one of his key men collecting big donations via his contacts in the BMC. Advani did not found anything on his own. Lets be honest if the Janata party would not have split there would be no BJP, Jd(u) and whole host of other parties. He had no mass base. The mass leader at that time was always Atal Bihari. Advani was a strategist. Modi is about 61. If he does not make his move now he will be too old IMO. I think even he is aware that 2014 might be too much for him. I am sure he is ready for a decade of battling at the centre. Rajasthan 2013 will be the one to watch. Raje is a close Modi ally and will ask him to campaign. Lets see of Rajasthan results go. From there we will be able to say if the Modi impact outside Guj does work. Atleast in northern india. Cause Modi is fluent in Gujarati, Hindi and Marathi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bulbul Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Dude, congress has already handed over the election to NDA on a platter. People are fed up of scams, corruption and MMS. All BJP had to do was not score an own goal and NDA would have won comfortably under any other leader. In fact, as I have said, I would have voted for Nitish or Advani or anyone else of BJP except Modi. Exactly how effective Modi is as a leader outside Gujarat, is yet to be seen. A good leader alos needs acceptance from all part (including all parts of his party) and Modi doesn't seem to have that M2C, in India you dont win simply becuase of ruling party corrupiton alone,you need a leader or atleast a projected one. Now !odi should start a yatra of entire country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravishingravi Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 One true fact stated by Sushil kumar modi in his pc was :jab hamari jarurat thi tab ham secular the' date=Ab nahi to hum communal ho gye. Bhai aaj ke din 10 mein se 9 aise hi secular milenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 What other leaders? As mentioned before the likes of Munde Raman and Raje are firmly behind him. The only objection comes from the likes of Uma Bharati. where is she in the other scheme of the bjp power? nowhere. Swaraj? is countered by Jaitley in Delhi. Advani did not found anything on his own. Lets be honest if the Janata party would not have split there would be no BJP, Jd(u) and whole host of other parties. He had no mass base. as I said earlier, these leaders may not look like much now but wait till BJP loses under Modi and then you'll see what I mean. Most of these are more experienced than Modi and are ready to wait till he stumbles. He is the only one is a hurry in the party and thats a big mistake which he is not realizing now. really??? Now Advani didn't do anything on his own for the BJP..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Outsider Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 No party is a monolith. It comes down to individual leaders. Vajpayee was not communal, Modi is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravishingravi Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 There was anti-incumbency in 2009 as well. BJP just didn't have the right kind of leader. The situation is not the same as 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 as I said earlier, these leaders may not look like much now but wait till BJP loses under Modi and then you'll see what I mean. Most of these are more experienced than Modi and are ready to wait till he stumbles. He is the only one is a hurry in the party and thats a big mistake which he is not realizing now. really??? Now Advani didn't do anything on his own for the BJP..... I never said he did not do anything. Its different from not having a base. Its a bit like Pramod Mahajan in Maharashtra politics. Vital for strategy behind the scene. Not good enough to make the masses vote for him. The bottomline is you need money to fight elections. So long as Modi has a big say on the finances of the BJP you can have all the experience in the world it wont matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 W A huge chunk of the BJP funding comes via different avenues of the VHP. No leader barring Modi has access to whole sorts of funds. Not to mention the amabanis who are gujarati. Money wise Modi has it all sown up. Modi is about 61. If he does not make his move now he will be too old IMO. I think even he is aware that 2014 might be too much for him. I am sure he is ready for a decade of battling at the centre. Rajasthan 2013 will be the one to watch. Raje is a close Modi ally and will ask him to campaign. Lets see of Rajasthan results go. From there we will be able to say if the Modi impact outside Guj does work. Modi does have access to a lot of funds but he's not the only one who can raise money. There are others who can easily raise as much. 61 is relatively young in Indian politics. He has a LOT of time to make his move. This time if he just says that NDA's PM candidate will be decided after the election he will gain a lot of respect and many followers and more importantly, acceptance from some allies as well. But he wants everything right now - Indian politics doesn't work that way and its not going to change for Modi. Gehlot has done a really bad job and this time most of the state BJP leaders are with Raje (last time the biggest reason for her loss was that state leaders revolted against her) so there is a very high probability of her winning. But I expect Modi to go there and when she wins, take all the credit like Pappu does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 No party is a monolith. It comes down to individual leaders. Vajpayee was not communal' date=' Modi is.[/quote'] really. What the congress then? if not a monolith of the gandhis. If anything barring the communists and the bjp there is not a major regional or national party not dominated by a single leader or family. Take the shiv sena, thakarey dominated. SP Yadav family dominated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Modi does have access to a lot of funds but he's not the only one who can raise money. There are others who can easily raise as much. 61 is relatively young in Indian politics. He has a LOT of time to make his move. This time if he just says that NDA's PM candidate will be decided after the election he will gain a lot of respect and many followers and more importantly, acceptance from some allies as well. But he wants everything right now - Indian politics doesn't work that way and its not going to change for Modi. Gehlot has done a really bad job and this time most of the state BJP leaders are with Raje (last time the biggest reason for her loss was that state leaders revolted against her) so there is a very high probability of her winning. But I expect Modi to go there and when she wins, take all the credit like Pappu does. no there really isnt. The likes of Kirit Somaiya who heads the BJP Mumbai have been collecting huge donations from Gujarati industrialists in the city of Mumbai. They are going to pour money only for Modi. You need atleast 10 crore per lok sabha seat. 61 IMO is the right time. Modi is not stupid. He knows 2014 is going to be hard. He knows the BJP wont form government. But his aim will be to ensure that they reach a respectable total after losing seats for the past 2 general elections. He needs to stop the rot. As i have said before if the BJP reach 140 plus under Modi it is a job well done in terms of establishing a platform. I personally dont expect the government formed in 2014 to be stable at all. With our economy going down the pan its going to be bit of a poisoned chalice. Last time shekhawant faction was against Raje. He is now dead. Modi pushed for Rajnath to make her undisputed leader. Regardless the impact of Modi can be viewed via Rajasthan. If the BJP crosses say 115 seats from 79 they currently have then IMO Modi has had an impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 I never said he did not do anything. Its different from not having a base. Its a bit like Pramod Mahajan in Maharashtra politics. Vital for strategy behind the scene. Not good enough to make the masses vote for him. The bottomline is you need money to fight elections. So long as Modi has a big say on the finances of the BJP you can have all the experience in the world it wont matter. Advani was the one who went around the country in his rath yatra which really galvanized the voters and workers alike but because he was wise enough to realize that he had a Hardcore Hindutva leader image so he asked Vajpayee to be the face of the Govt. And comparing him to someone like Mahajan is an insult to Advani. Meh.....funding does matter but after the elections when the allies say "NO MODI" then that means "NO MODI". Period. Modi's funds won't matter then. He has done absolutely nothing to make himself acceptable to the allies and that is something which will come back to haunt him - makes me wonder whether he really has a political brain or not!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Advani was the one who went around the country in his rath yatra which really galvanized the voters and workers alike but because he was wise enough to realize that he had a Hardcore Hindutva leader image so he asked Vajpayee to be the face of the Govt. And comparing him to someone like Mahajan is an insult to Advani. Meh.....funding does matter but after the elections when the allies say "NO MODI" then that means "NO MODI". Period. Modi's funds won't matter then. He has done absolutely nothing to make himself acceptable to the allies and that is something which will come back to haunt him - makes me wonder whether he really has a political brain or not!!! Those Rath Yatras are a bonus. But he remains a Sindhi with no base. BJP in 1999 came to power on the back of sweeping UP under Atal Bihari. Some 40% of their lok sabha members were from UP. If anything the rath yatra outside UP for Advani did not yeild many results. Lets just agree to disagree on the funds. Cause there is no way you can fight any election in india without funds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urbestfriend Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 at the end of the day this decision means suicide for both.... Definitely not! Modi wave is very strong and rift between Muslims vote among RJD and JDU will benefit BJP. It can win 15-18 seats in Bihar and total tally of 180 seats, allies like JDU will come back and possibly Modi has to step aside for PM ship. Best bet for BJP in this election is to take a stand and project Modi as PM candidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urbestfriend Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 The BJP need to make tough decisions. Even ones which can or do hurt them. I am liking the way Rajnath singh has gone about his business. Was firm in promoting Raje as the face of BJP Rajasthan and now is firm with Modi being campaign chief. Get back Yeddy as the mass leader for the Karanataka unit should be next on his list. Yeddy is a mass leader is myth, he had backing of Lingayat lobby during previous rule when he was CM and now almost all his loyalists have failed miserably. No point bringing him back although BJP is trying best to bring him back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Definitely not! Modi wave is very strong and rift between Muslims vote among RJD and JDU will benefit BJP. It can win 15-18 seats in Bihar and total tally of 180 seats' date=' allies like JDU will come back and possibly Modi has to step aside for PM ship. Best bet for BJP in this election is to take a stand and project Modi as PM candidate.[/quote'] its a myth that muslims vote for Nitish. the muslim yadav combo has always functioned in UP and Bihar. Laloo prasad is simply going to win or cause a hung parliament in the next elections. the Jd(u) bring in non yadav OBC BJP bring in high caste and low caste vote. together they bring in about 35-40% of the electorate. Enough to sweep the elections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Definitely not! Modi wave is very strong and rift between Muslims vote among RJD and JDU will benefit BJP. It can win 15-18 seats in Bihar and total tally of 180 seats' date= allies like JDU will come back and possibly Modi has to step aside for PM ship. Best bet for BJP in this election is to take a stand and project Modi as PM candidate. Oh well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Yeddy is a mass leader is myth' date=' he had backing of Lingayat lobby during previous rule when he was CM and now almost all his loyalists have failed miserably. No point bringing him back although BJP is trying best to bring him back.[/quote'] His party got 10% of the popular vote on his own. Your telling me Yeddy being a mass leader is a myth? Thats despite BJP placing Shetter another lingayat as their CM candidate at the expense of Gowda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts