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State elections 2013 thread: Delhi, MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Mizoram


The Outsider

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Just watching HT and they have an opinion poll on the state elections. AAP showing an impressive 17% vote and 9 seats. Congress and BJP split at 28 seats each, others 5. MP: Congress - 92, BJP - 122, BSP - 6, Others - 10. Rajasthan: Congress - 79, BJP - 97, BSP - 5, Others - 19. Chhattisgarh: Congress - 42, BJP - 45, BSP - 2, Others - 1.

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Just watching HT and they have an opinion poll on the state elections. AAP showing an impressive 17% vote and 9 seats. Congress and BJP split at 28 seats each, others 5. MP: Congress - 92, BJP - 122, BSP - 6, Others - 10. Rajasthan: Congress - 79, BJP - 97, BSP - 5, Others - 19. Chhattisgarh: Congress - 42, BJP - 45, BSP - 2, Others - 1.
9 seats is remarkable for a new party. All credit to the guts, courage, determination of Kejriwal.
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AAP's strength is being overestimated a little. 17% looks very high. 7-8% votes and 3-4 seats looks a reasonable estimate with Kejriwal (New Delhi), Manish Sisodia (Patparganj), Gopal Rai (Babarpur) , Aftab Ahmed (Seelampur) and Shazia Ilmi (RK Puram) looking as their best bets. Santosh Koli who recently died after being fatally injured in an accident could have added another seat. The BJP is in ruins and ridden with factions. Vijay Goel - Dr. Harshwardhan - VK Malhotra - with no credible face as the likely CM candidate. Out of them Dr. Harshwardhan is a good choice but then he will face massive internal sabotage if named as the CM candidate. MP and Chattisgrah, despite tough battles should remain with BJP. MP could get closer if Congress declares Jr. Scindia as its CM candidate. Rajasthan as usual will be a very keen content. Congress has recovered well in the last few months when at one point BJP looked like comfortably toppling Gehlot.

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while the 17 % vote share might be true but seat win conversion will be low,AAP wont win 9 seats in delhi,max 3-4..it will be a close contest b/w congress and bjp bjp will most probably win rajasthan,will be close though. easy win for bjp at MP chattisgarh will be close one considering recent attacks on congress leaders but still think bjp will just transcend the small scale anti incumbency factor (same as punjab with SAD)

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BJP to win 3 of 4 states in upcoming polls, close call in Delhi: Survey

NEW DELHI: The BJP is set to retain power in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and unseat the Congress in Rajasthan. But in Delhi the party is locked in a neck-and-neck race with the Congress, which could end up in a hung assembly, according to a Times Now-CVoter poll. If the projections hold, they would come as a massive psychological boost to Narendra Modi and the BJP just months ahead of the Lok Sabaha elections of 2014. They would also mean an impressive debut for the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party, which is estimated to win seven of Delhi's 70 assembly seats. According to the poll, which surveyed close to 39,000 people across the four states, the BJP could end up with 30 seats in Delhi, six short of a majority. With the Congress estimated to win 29 and AAP seven, that could well end in a situation where no government can be formed as AAP is unlikely to support either Congress or BJP. B9nZluV.png In Madhya Pradesh, the poll suggests the BJP is poised to win quite comfortably despite the BJP having been in power for a decade. It projects 130 seats for the Shivraj Chauhan-led party in the 230-member assembly, leaving the Congress a distant second at 84. In Rajasthan too, the BJP is predicted to gain a decisive verdict, picking up 118 seats in the 200-member House. The Congress is estimated to win a mere 64 seats, with BSP and others winning the remaining 18. In Chhattisgarh, the BJP seems to be somewhat less securely placed but with the poll predicting it will win 47 of the 90 seats, it could win a majority though a smaller one than in 2008. The BSP, the poll suggests, will make its presence felt in each of the four state except Chhattisgarh, but in each case it will be only a marginal player, winning two seats in the national capital, three in Rajasthan and five in Madhya Pradesh. NkXlMny.png
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/BJP-to-win-3-of-4-states-in-upcoming-polls-close-call-in-Delhi-Survey/articleshow/22724852.cms
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For delhi, Bjp hasn't started campaign. There's a Modi speech scheduled (walkable distance from where i live) this month planned to be watched by 5 lac people with over 100 big screens installed in railway stations, bus depots and all major markets. that may change seat projection. right now, aap has already done 3-4 rally near where I live, I received recorded messages of kejriwal as phone ads, AAP party people coming from house to house(my house too), plus posters of AAP seem all around everywhere...

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For last couple of days Arvind Kejriwal's AAP is running a massive campaign on FM channels. Every 10 minutes, Arvind Kejriwal says " Hello main Arvind Kejriwal bol raha hoon. Yogendra Yadavji ne Delhi mein ek poll karwaya hai jiske anusaar Delhi ke 46% log AAP ko vote karenge, 26% BJP ko aur sirf 25% Congress ko. Aap bhi Jhaadu ka button daba kar AAP ka hath majboot banayein" (Hello, This is Arving Kejriwal speaking. An opinion poll by Yogendra Yadav shows 46% of Delhiites will vote for AAP with 26% voting for BJP and 25% for Congress. Support AAP by giving your vote to us)

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For last couple of days Arvind Kejriwal's AAP is running a massive campaign on FM channels. Every 10 minutes' date=' Arvind Kejriwal says "[i'] Hello main Arvind Kejriwal bol raha hoon. Yogendra Yadavji ne Delhi mein ek poll karwaya hai jiske anusaar Delhi ke 46% log AAP ko vote karenge, 26% BJP ko aur sirf 25% Congress ko. Aap bhi Jhaadu ka button daba kar AAP ka hath majboot banayein" (Hello, This is Arving Kejriwal speaking. An opinion poll by Yogendra Yadav shows 46% of Delhiites will vote for AAP with 26% voting for BJP and 25% for Congress. Support AAP by giving your vote to us)
just yesterday shazia ilmi said on HT that their party would be open to a post-poll tie up with congress in delhi :giggle:
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just yesterday shazia ilmi said on HT that their party would be open to a post-poll tie up with congress in delhi :giggle:
Yep she did say so. But if you look at yday's opinion polls, AAP seems to be taking away a larger chunks of votes from Congress and not the BJP! Shows the success of their campaigns in the slums and unorganized colonies. Though all this could change rapidly the day before voting when handouts, daaru and non veg can swing a large chunk of voters to the highest bidder!
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Yep she did say so. But if you look at yday's opinion polls, AAP seems to be taking away a larger chunks of votes from Congress and not the BJP! Shows the success of their campaigns in the slums and unorganized colonies. Though all this could change rapidly the day before voting when handouts, daaru and non veg can swing a large chunk of voters to the highest bidder!
who do you think should be the BJP CM candidate?
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He is a national leader yaar' date=' let him play his roles in center.[/quote'] National Leader with no mass base. He missed a trick in 2008, should have agreed to be the CM candidate, build a base and become a serious PM candidate by now. Modi being named PM candidate has set the trend for strong state leaders coming to centre politics and most likely will continue.
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National Leader with no mass base. He missed a trick in 2008, should have agreed to be the CM candidate, build a base and become a serious PM candidate by now. Modi being named PM candidate has set the trend for strong state leaders coming to centre politics and most likely will continue.
When he speaks in parliament, press conferances and interviews on key national issues people take notice. If he had become cm, he would not be able to give as much time for national issues both of people and of bjp which are more important than being delhi cm imo.
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When he speaks in parliament' date=' press conferances and interviews on key national issues people take notice. If he had become cm, he would not be able to give as much time for national issues both of people and of bjp which are more important than being delhi cm imo.[/quote'] Arun Jaitley is a bit younger than Modi & may still emerge as the PM candidate if it comes to NDA forming the govt in 2014
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When he speaks in parliament' date=' press conferances and interviews on key national issues people take notice. If he had become cm, he would not be able to give as much time for national issues both of people and of bjp which are more important than being delhi cm imo.[/quote'] Doesn't make him a national mass leader. Not sure if he can win if he fights elections from say even in an urban area like New Delhi where his biggest audience resides. In a system of electoral politics, winning elections is important and Jaitley has never stood in direct elections. In a way, that is his handicap right now and in future as well. As rootless as Sushma Swaraj is currently, at least she's always fought LS polls from 1996 onwards. Jaitley is a great legal brain, brilliant strategist, amazingly articulate with a very good grasp of all national/international issues - these will make him a great asset as an advisro but not sure if he will be able to reach the topmost post. A potential stint as Delhi CM could have given that grounding required to become a mass leader.
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Doesn't make him a national mass leader. Not sure if he can win if he fights elections from say even in an urban area like New Delhi where his biggest audience resides. In a system of electoral politics, winning elections is important and Jaitley has never stood in direct elections. In a way, that is his handicap right now and in future as well. As rootless as Sushma Swaraj is currently, at least she's always fought LS polls from 1996 onwards. Jaitley is a great legal brain, brilliant strategist, amazingly articulate with a very good grasp of all national/international issues - these will make him a great asset as an advisro but not sure if he will be able to reach the topmost post. A potential stint as Delhi CM could have given that grounding required to become a mass leader.
But delhi is a small state, with only 7 seats (out of which bjp is expected to win 6in 2014 anyways I guess) Idk whether a one-time cm of a small state can be called a mass leader
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Think this belongs here

During Rajasthan's CM Ashok Gehlot's speech., slogans supporting Modi were strongly(जमकर) shouted(लगे)! Gehlot left immediately after speech. Convened by Rajasthan Youth board, youth affairs and sports department on Wednesday in Jaipur's Amroodon ka bagh to celebrate Youth Mahotsav, after this incident CM's behaviour changed completely and he left immediately after speech. As soon as CM reached the stage, right from there the youth started slogans like "Modi Zindabad". However the tempo/echo/amplitude/resonance (गूंज) was swift when CM started his speech. CM talked about Congress Govt's schemes and works among the slogans. With him on the stage were youth affairs & sports minister Mangi Lal Garasia and Haryana's legislature's member Ashok Tanwar. Police, Youth Congress and others associated with the event worked hard to stop the sloganeering, but could not stop the slogans coming from all sides. http://m.amarujala.com/news/states/rajasthan/modi-slogans-in-gehlot-rally/
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