someone Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Imo, BJP's primary target has got to be to increase the voter turnout. That was the main reason for their success in LS 2014. BJP will always do better on higher voter turnout, and that's really the key thing needed if they are gonna win the upcoming elections. And for that, Modi will play a crucial role, to motivate cadre and ask people to come to vote on 15 October. Modi may not gain substantial new voters in state elections with such limited time, but will help to keep hold and for retention of existing voters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adi B Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Hung assembly likely in state' date= Haryana: Poll http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/City/Mumbai/Hung-assembly-likely-in-state-Haryana-Poll/articleshow/44132878.cms nah,those numbers are too high for cong and ncp.they are facing huge anti incumbency and add to that,the split in muslim votes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted October 3, 2014 Author Share Posted October 3, 2014 nah' date='those numbers are too high for cong and ncp.they are facing huge anti incumbency and add to that,the split in muslim votes[/quote'] to be fair to the ncp their vote is more concentrated. So they oscillate between a smaller range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted October 3, 2014 Author Share Posted October 3, 2014 Hung assembly likely in state' date= Haryana: Poll http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/City/Mumbai/Hung-assembly-likely-in-state-Haryana-Poll/articleshow/44132878.cms The BJP is expected to get 90 seats, followed closely by the Congress, with 72, and the Shiv Sena with 61. The NCP is projected to win 38 seats. It could mean that when an alliance breaks, the voters back the stronger party in the alliance, which has a national clout. Though Shiv Sena claims it is still stronger than the BJP in the state, the Narendra Modi charisma will take the party through as Uddhav Thackeray cannot match the Modi-pull as of now. Zee Survey http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/report-bjp-to-emerge-as-single-largest-party-in-mahapolls-zee-survey-2023224 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted October 3, 2014 Author Share Posted October 3, 2014 seems people are not certain on the position of the congress or the sena. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alchemist Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 There are not enough credible candidates for Parties since the break up. A lot if independents are getting tickets with Parties. This is funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desi Cartman Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 it'll be funny (and sad at the same time) if Congress is able to form the next government since right wing votes will now be divided between BJP,SS, MNS and even NCP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jalebi_bhai Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 uYxwfSqhsfI&spfreload=1 The last bit is a bit telling........how would the general populace feel about dividing Maharashtra?........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted October 4, 2014 Author Share Posted October 4, 2014 hmm the modi rally in mumbai did not draw as many as uddhav. thats the impression i get. Anybody else feel the same? The beed rally was huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted October 4, 2014 Author Share Posted October 4, 2014 I hope i am wrong but the BJP strategy in maharashtra is off. Apart from Viderbha they are depending a bit too much on Modi. Uddhav T has already given 3-4 major interviews broadcast on TV. I hope that the bjp dont rue naming a CM candidate. There is a distinct lack of spearhead in this campaign for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jalebi_bhai Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 I hope i am wrong but the BJP strategy in maharashtra is off. Apart from Viderbha they are depending a bit too much on Modi. Uddhav T has already given 3-4 major interviews broadcast on TV. I hope that the bjp dont rue naming a CM candidate. There is a distinct lack of spearhead in this campaign for them. Do you think that a post-poll understanding with the sena (if neccessary) is on the cards? I agree with Uddhav's line of thought (let SS rule Maharshtra, BJP the nation).......but maybe BJP want to dissociate with the sena's anti-North Indian stance keeping in mind the timid performance in the UP by-polls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted October 4, 2014 Author Share Posted October 4, 2014 Do you think that a post-poll understanding with the sena (if neccessary) is on the cards? I agree with Uddhav's line of thought (let SS rule Maharshtra, BJP the nation).......but maybe BJP want to dissociate with the sena's anti-North Indian stance keeping in mind the timid performance in the UP by-polls? The BJP want to grow as a party. You cant totally fault them for that. The BJP and Sena will mostly come together if BJP does not get the needed seats. The Sena needs BJP support in the BMC which is the source of their power. Its really odd in a way. The sena and bjp still have a coalition at national and municipal level and yet are not at the state level. This fight was always about who got to be CM. The BJP want their own CM. Now the problem with this type of growth is (A) the BJP have plenty of states in India they can target for growth or new frontiers as they say. Telangana and Assam comes to mind. So why start with Maharashtra? A state that sent about 23 BJP MPs? The sena too usually votes in line with the BJP on 19/20 issues. (B) Any future allies will be wary. If the BJP can do this to the sena. If i were the SAD in Punjab i would be planning for a future without the BJP. Punjab is another place where I feel Shah will not let the status quo prevail. © As of now the BJP are on the crust of a wave. These things ebb and flow. If the sena can get second place they have a young aditya thakarey who has inherited his grandfathers fire. the shoe maybe on the other foot post Modi. Thats the point about partners. They reduce your own personal risk. (D) What happens in elections for the lok sabha in 2019? The sena does not care to that degree about what happens in the lok sabha. Their priority is the BMC and Maharashtra assembly. In that order. What if the NCP and Congress recombine. BJP and Sena will face the brunt of it. Yes the sena will lose. But they dont have much to gain anyways. The big assumption is that the NCP and the congress will contest alone in the lok sabha as well. There is a grain of truth is what Uddhav says. The BJP under Modi and Shah cannot be trusted as allies. If i am Chandrababu Naidu its better for me not to give the BJP and inch and walk away in Telangana and Seemandhra. Naveen Patnaik comes out as a winner in all this. The BJP under Advani gave a bit too much to their allies. It probably put ideas in the head of the likes of Nitish kumar. The BJP under Shah and Modi is giving a bit too little. There exists a middle ground IMO. In 2009 it was 169 sena and 119 BJP a difference of 50. In 2014 it was going to be 150 Sena 120 BJP and 18 others. A difference of 30. (a sena proposal) With the above formula with the sena getting seats in historically weaker areas for the saffron alliance there was a good chance the BJP would have emerged as the largest part within this framework. The 20 seat change in difference did IMO reflect and acknowledge the modi wave and the robustness of the BJP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jalebi_bhai Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 The BJP want to grow as a party. You cant totally fault them for that. The BJP and Sena will mostly come together if BJP does not get the needed seats. The Sena needs BJP support in the BMC which is the source of their power. Its really odd in a way. The sena and bjp still have a coalition at national and municipal level and yet are not at the state level. This fight was always about who got to be CM. The BJP want their own CM. Now the problem with this type of growth is (A) the BJP have plenty of states in India they can target for growth or new frontiers as they say. Telangana and Assam comes to mind. So why start with Maharashtra? A state that sent about 23 BJP MPs? The sena too usually votes in line with the BJP on 19/20 issues. (B) Any future allies will be wary. If the BJP can do this to the sena. If i were the SAD in Punjab i would be planning for a future without the BJP. Punjab is another place where I feel Shah will not let the status quo prevail. © As of now the BJP are on the crust of a wave. These things ebb and flow. If the sena can get second place they have a young aditya thakarey who has inherited his grandfathers fire. the shoe maybe on the other foot post Modi. Thats the point about partners. They reduce your own personal risk. (D) What happens in elections for the lok sabha in 2019? The sena does not care to that degree about what happens in the lok sabha. Their priority is the BMC and Maharashtra assembly. In that order. What if the NCP and Congress recombine. BJP and Sena will face the brunt of it. Yes the sena will lose. But they dont have much to gain anyways. The big assumption is that the NCP and the congress will contest alone in the lok sabha as well. There is a grain of truth is what Uddhav says. The BJP under Modi and Shah cannot be trusted as allies. If i am Chandrababu Naidu its better for me not to give the BJP and inch and walk away in Telangana and Seemandhra. Naveen Patnaik comes out as a winner in all this. The BJP under Advani gave a bit too much to their allies. It probably put ideas in the head of the likes of Nitish kumar. The BJP under Shah and Modi is giving a bit too little. There exists a middle ground IMO. In 2009 it was 169 sena and 119 BJP a difference of 50. In 2014 it was going to be 150 Sena 120 BJP and 18 others. A difference of 30. (a sena proposal) With the above formula with the sena getting seats in historically weaker areas for the saffron alliance there was a good chance the BJP would have emerged as the largest part within this framework. The 20 seat change in difference did IMO reflect and acknowledge the modi wave and the robustness of the BJP. Thanks for the detailed reply.....:two_thumbs_up:.......you've addressed a lot of issues........ One final question.......where does this leave the MNS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted October 4, 2014 Author Share Posted October 4, 2014 Thanks for the detailed reply.....:two_thumbs_up:.......you've addressed a lot of issues........ One final question.......where does this leave the MNS? Much better off. Its a 5 way fight in about 60 seats involing the MNS. The two mega alliances would have close to 40% in the seats they contested. Putting the MNS out of action. Its make or break for Raj. If he can get 20 plus seats. He can become an ally of the BJP long term. What the MNS want to become also is a kingmaker to alliances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jalebi_bhai Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Much better off. Its a 5 way fight in about 60 seats involing the MNS. The two mega alliances would have close to 40% in the seats they contested. Putting the MNS out of action. Its make or break for Raj. If he can get 20 plus seats. He can become an ally of the BJP long term. What the MNS want to become also is a kingmaker to alliances. Accha......seems like a very interesting situation in MAH politics.......hopefully it doesn't end up being a hung assembly....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted October 4, 2014 Author Share Posted October 4, 2014 Accha......seems like a very interesting situation in MAH politics.......hopefully it doesn't end up being a hung assembly....... hard to say. In recent times many have predicted a hung verdict. Only for the leader to pull away. In UP assembly last time people predicted hung with SP largest party. In reality the skew was towards the SP so they formed gov on their own. Ditto lok sabha. People predicted BJP largest party and a hung parliament. Only for BJP to win on its own. Wont be surprised if a party does form government on its own. Such has been the situation in india recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted October 5, 2014 Author Share Posted October 5, 2014 nobody seems to be attacking the shiv sena Congress--- attacks BJP and NCP NCP--- attacks mostly Congress and little bit of BJP BJP--- attacks NCP and Congress Shiv Sena-- attacks BJP Congress MNS and NCP MNS --- attacks mostly Shiv sena Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texan Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 MNS --- attacks mostly Shiv sena Actually MNS mostly attacks Cong and NCP and they blame Sena for not effectively opposing Cong-NCP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted October 6, 2014 Author Share Posted October 6, 2014 'Common foe' BJP may reunite Raj, Uddhav MUMBAI: A common anti-BJP agenda could pave way for the estranged Thackeray cousins to sink differences and team up to articulate Maharashtra's regional aspirations, say observers. Efforts are on to get Uddhav and Raj together after the assembly polls, sources said. "A couple of friends who know both Uddhav and Raj very well have been doing some loud thinking on the subject. They have informally spoken to both of them," said a noted artiste who enjoys good equations with the Thackeray cousins. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/maharashtra-news/Common-foe-BJP-may-reunite-Raj-Uddhav/articleshow/44449110.cms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sticky wicket Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 'Common foe' BJP may reunite Raj' date= Uddhav MUMBAI: A common anti-BJP agenda could pave way for the estranged Thackeray cousins to sink differences and team up to articulate Maharashtra's regional aspirations, say observers. Efforts are on to get Uddhav and Raj together after the assembly polls, sources said. "A couple of friends who know both Uddhav and Raj very well have been doing some loud thinking on the subject. They have informally spoken to both of them," said a noted artiste who enjoys good equations with the Thackeray cousins. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/maharashtra-news/Common-foe-BJP-may-reunite-Raj-Uddhav/articleshow/44449110.cms :hysterical: this is so expected from our media, as expected they will now cheerlead Shiv Sena against BJP, when in reality they are of the same page Watch now slowing leading upto election days Shiv Sena slowly being turned into a secular champion by our media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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