Number Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 From outside it looks a weird, inexplicable and absurd decision from Nitish but a friend from Bihar told that Nitish has almost no ground level cadres. He used BJP/RSS for this so far and without them despite all good work he got 2 seats. So he has to get the cadres which he could get only from Laloo at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texan Posted December 4, 2014 Author Share Posted December 4, 2014 Déjà vu 1. They come together to oppose a national party that wins an overwhelming majority. 2. Regional leaders start bickering. 3. Regional leaders separate and form their own parties. 4.They lose an election badly. 5. They come together again. Repeat in loop. No good can come off this combination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desi Cartman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Rahool baba should have replaced MMS for the last 2 years and at least acted as the PM. That was his only hope to show people that he can actually be a leader. Now he is done and going to finish congress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texan Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 To all those "secular intellectuals" who were singing praises of Nitish for getting rid of jungle raj, this is ONE TIGHT SLAP!!!! JD (U)-RJD merger in final stage: Nitish PATNA: Former chief minister Nitish Kumar on Saturday declared the process of merger of JD (U) and RJD in Bihar was in final stage. The new party's leader will be decided after the merger is formalized. "Good governance will be the new party's motto," he said. Addressing a meeting of the JD (U)'s political advisory committee at the party HQ here, Nitish virtually gave an undertaking to the participants that 'jungle raj' won't return to the state since he would be at the helm of affairs. "Main hoon na," he said as he hinted he might lead the merged political formation. Nitish also said the merger of six parties at the national level would also take place soon. "Our party's office-bearers will meet here on Sunday to endorse the modalities of merger," state JD (U) president Bashistha Narain Singh said. The party has organised a "feast" at the New Patna Club to celebrate Makar Sankranti on January 14. It will be attended by JD (U) and RJD politicians. The date of merger will be announced after this festival, Singh said. Nitish said there was consensus among the two parties' workers and leaders about the merger. The executive committee of both the parties will adopt resolutions on disbanding the organisation and merging into new entity, Singh said. The JD (U) meeting on Saturday was attended by party leaders from across the state. The 187-member advisory committee was set up after the party's poor performance in the Lok Sabha election. Nitish said the new party would provide an alternative to the BJP in Bihar and in the country. "People are disappointed with the Narendra Modi government's failure to bring black money back to India, check prices and provide employment to the youths as promised during the Lok Sabha election," he said. He also regretted the Modi government has resorted to 'ordinance raj' as was done in Emergency in 1970s. The Union government demolished the structure of Planning Commission, thereby depriving the states of financial allocations; he said and added the Niti Aayog that has replaced the Planning Commission is actually a training institute only. Nitish also advised his party workers to arrange screening of Amir Khan's movie 'PK' in villages to expose the deeds of fundamentalist forces. It may be recalled the ties between Nitish and RJD president Lalu Prasad remained sour during the last 20 years since Nitish parted ways with Lalu and formed Samata Party. Even in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, they fought against each other. Nitish at his election speeches would remind people not to vote for Lalu as it would result in return of 'jungle raj'. The two parties, however, joined hands to contest the Jharkhand assembly election, but failed to get even a single seat. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/JD-U-RJD-merger-in-final-stage-Nitish/articleshow/45745900.cms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diga Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 To all those "secular intellectuals" who were singing praises of Nitish for getting rid of jungle raj, this is ONE TIGHT SLAP!!!! JD (U)-RJD merger in final stage: Nitish http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/JD-U-RJD-merger-in-final-stage-Nitish/articleshow/45745900.cms next will be the ragtag outfits of Deve Gowda & Ajit Singh.. They may form the third front with Mamta/NCP/SP-BSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
someone Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 So a convicted criminal has now become the messiah for these "secular" parties. What a hopeless situation. And this janata parivar should be a big worry for Congress, they might just take away the opposition role of Congress that it currently has nationally. Janata Parivar could just complete the Congress Mukt India. But will janata parivar even sustain itself together for some years, that's the question to answer? Given, many leaders of the parties are already relatively old age and are a bunch of greedy opportunists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
someone Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 next will be the ragtag outfits of Deve Gowda & Ajit Singh.. They may form the third front with Mamta/NCP/SP-BSP Yep, there is a third front group for national elections. Now this Janata Parivar is basically the third front in state elections. It's a new name for the third front. And their primary purpose is to stop BJP and post-elections, they will align with Congress if necessary. Congress still has to wary especially if this Janata Parivar does better than Congress party in elections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asterix Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 ^ Agree Congress should be more worried about this Janata Parivar II... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 yup Congress might be pushed to 3rd nationally with the Janata pariwar way i see it the likes of the BJD too may join them if Naveen Patnaik is given a centre enough role. As of now the BJD is not saying anything because Patnaik wants funds from the centre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Samajwadi 40 RJD + JD(u) 25 JD(s) 10 INLD 5 Thats the max range i can see of the Janata pariwar. Works out to about 80 seats. Obviously i will be surprised if they manage to get to this point. Realistically they will get about 40 seats between them and be lucky. From the current 15 they have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
someone Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 ^^^ That's not a good analysis. LS elections are in 2019, a lot of things will change. If in 2010, somebody had told BJP itself would get >272 seats in 2014 elections, everybody would have laughed. So, it's not possible to put a max range or min range for any party. Be it even BJP or Congress. Janata Parivar immediate target now is about being relevant in Indian politics. So they need to gain power in their individual states. 2014 LS elections have given them a major scare about the possible irrelevance of regional parties. (at least in Hindi speaking states) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 ^^^ That's not a good analysis. LS elections are in 2019, a lot of things will change. If in 2010, somebody had told BJP itself would get >272 seats in 2014 elections, everybody would have laughed. So, it's not possible to put a max range or min range for any party. Be it even BJP or Congress. Janata Parivar immediate target now is about being relevant in Indian politics. So they need to gain power in their individual states. 2014 LS elections have given them a major scare about the possible irrelevance of regional parties. (at least in Hindi speaking states) well the INLD is as good as out in that is the case. Samajwadi is in power and have filled their coffers to last them some time based on Mulayams birthday. Jd(u) has been in power for close to a decade. A lot of the Jd(u) will have filled their boots during power. and i feel my analysis is fair. Now i agree its hard to predict that of a congress. A political party which is involved in nearly every state. The congress are still the most spread Indian party with established units everywhere. I would say even predicting the communist numbers or left front is quite hard as even they are quite spread. But the analysis of the current Janata Pariwar i feel especially with the higher bound on the range is a fair call. This is why (A) They are effectively 4 regional parties. 2 of whom are in one state. Adding the seats of these four states together gives us 80+ 40+28+10 is about 158. Ie they are not spread through the country. We all saw what happened in Jharkhand where RJD and JD(u) have been wiped out since the formation of the state. Even before this election their numbers were in decline (B) The best electoral performance of the Samajwadi party has been 36 seats in UP in 2004. The best performance of the Jd(s) has been 3 seats. INLD is similar. RJD +Jd(U) is a different dynamic. They are currently getting 15. I think a 5 fold increase is a fair call for a max prediction. © All these parties rely on a narrow section of the vote base. Ie the BJP's pan hindu vote base while prone to disintegration (as we have seen in the 00s) is much larger than the vote base of say the Samajwadi (yadav + muslims) Rjd ( yadav + muslim) INLD (jat+muslim jat) Jd(u) (Kumri+ other backward castes) and Jd(s) ( Vokkaliga + minorities). Its very hard for you to go above a certain seat count when you have a relatively narrow vote base. The samajwadi for example has never crossed more than 30%-32% of the vote in UP. The BJP has in the 90s and again so in the recently concluded election. This is what happens when you play caste based politics. Keep in mind BJP or congress will have the edge in national politics. These parties will have the historic edge in local politics. (D) All the leaders of these parties are well known in their states and have been voted out on numerous times. Modi did not sit in opposition once he became CM. Ie these leaders have been voted out of power multiple times or have not even been in power with their current parties. I am reminded of AAP. It was an unknown quantity and the forecasters got it wrong. Now they are known the forecasters got their prediction right. Modi outside Gujarat was an unknown quantity, especially in UP. People of UP know the Samajwadi for close to 20 years and have voted them in and out of power. Ditto a lot of these leaders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texan Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Well, but 5 years is a long time. You don't even know if these people will stick to each other till then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
someone Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Exactly, 5 years is too far. It doesn't matter how smart or articulate you are as its really unreasonable to make any conclusion so early. While, even with Bihar elections in just 10 months, it's gonna be very tough to call. And with the Janata Parivar leaders, involved in some controversy or scams. It's gonna be a case of you scratch my back, I scratch yours. They hope to use their collective might to protect each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asterix Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 As long as they are winning elections, they'll stick together... They don't have any other option. In Bihar's cast politics, they might succeed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texan Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 On the contrary, if they win elections, expect to see more and more infighting for plum posts. As long as they keep losing elections, they will have no option but to stick together for political relevance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
someone Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Generally the lure of power unites and hides all differences. So if they win elections, this experiment will only expand with more parties being added. And if they lose elections, the individual party could just split up. There is already significant amount of cadre who are demotivated and are ready to leave. Only the lure of potential power is keeping them together. The leaders understand these problems very well and thus are united with other parties to keep all running together. Thus, making Bihar elections all so crucial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 technically its close to 4 years....just thought i would mention that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jalebi_bhai Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I think the Indian populace, in general, is moving away from the Janata Parivaar brand of socialistic politics.......even in rural areas.......people now want to be entrepreneurs, not workers in a hand loom factory.......if these guys are to remain relevant, they have to completely update their brand of politics........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Also in the case of Nitish kumar, his entire economic model was taking funds from the centre and spending it in Bihar. While i dont think he is corrupt (by Indian political standards). A big state like Bihar cannot go on forever looking at handouts from the centre. It needs to attract FDI etc on its own merit. Thats a big question even the BJP needs to answer. Obviously law and order needs to be fixed. But how exactly are you going to stimulate the private sector in your state? I am sure the centre will invest in infra projects like buildings highways and express-ways in the state as a priority but with 80 million plus people Bihar needs a plan on its own. Regardless of what you think about the politics of the BJP, the Janata pariwar does not know how to handle the economy. Even the congress would be better. Both UP and Bihar would be better off if they were two party states between the congress and the bjp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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