Texan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The Chief Contenders: Arvind Kejriwal (Aam Aadmi Party) v/s Kiran Bedi (Bhartiya Janata Party) The Outside Contender: Ajay Maken (Congress) ==================== Key Dates: [table=head]Event|Date| Date of Notification|14.01.2015 (Wednesday) Last date of making nomination |21.01.2015 (Wednesday) Date of Scrutiny |22.01.2015 (Thursday) Last date of withdrawal |24.01.2015 (Saturday) Date of Poll |07.02.2015 (Saturday) Date of Counting |10.02.2015 (Tuesday) Date before which the Election Shall be Completed |12.02.2015 (Thursday) [/table] Let the discussions begin.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texan Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Delhi polls 2015: Aam Aadmi Party may win most of the Muslim concentrated seats, says CSDS survey NEW DELHI: With the contest between the BJP and Aam Aadmi Party in the Delhi Assembly elections almost certain to go down to the wire, the Muslim community, which comprises 13% of the population, is set to play a decisive role. In the 2013 elections, support from Muslims had proved to be the only consolation for the Congress party; so much so that four of the eight Congress candidates who were elected were Muslims from Muslim concentrated seats. A post-poll survey conducted by CSDS (Centre for the Study of Developing Societies) in 2013 indicated that 53% of the Muslim voters voted for Congress. While this was much less than the two-thirds vote the Congress had been getting among Muslims in previous elections in Delhi, it was nonetheless more than twice the party's average vote share. What explains this Muslim support for the Congress, that too when all other communities had deserted it? Are things likely to change this time? It could be argued that the Congress was able to retain its traditional Muslim support in December 2013 not out of any love for it, but because the Muslim community at that time was not sure whether AAP was in a position to defeat the BJP. Once the Muslims saw the winning potential of AAP they shifted their allegiance in considerable numbers from the Congress to AAP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. However, the shift did not take the form of a complete consolidation as 56% of Muslims voted for AAP and 39% for the Congress, resulting in a division of votes in some assembly segments. This tentative shift of Muslim votes towards AAP in 2014 could well intensify and become more definite in the upcoming assembly elections as the Congress has been unable to stage a recovery and AAP has emerged as the main alternative to the BJP in Delhi. The only thing that could perhaps work in favour of the Congress is that the party has renominated all its four Muslim MLAs who were elected in 2013. Their local influence may arrest the Muslim drift towards AAP, particularly if they are seen to be in a better position than the AAP candidates to take on the BJP. This doesn't mean that the Muslims of Delhi don't have other concerns, and that local issues such as electricity, roads, water supply and sanitation won't matter to them while voting. They certainly will. But the foremost concern of a Muslim voter will in all likelihood continue to be ensuring BJP's loss. After all, the Modi government hasn't given the community any good reason to change its opinion about the BJP. There are five assembly seats in Delhi where Muslims account for over 40% of the total population and in a position to determine the electoral outcome almost singlehandedly. These are Chandni Chowk, Matia Mahal, Ballimaran, Okhla and Seelampur. In both the 2008 and 2013 elections, the BJP could not win any of these five seats. Four were won by the Congress and one (Matia Mahal) by Shoaib Iqbal (who is contesting on a Congress ticket this time). In the Lok Sabha elections, the Muslim voters shifted allegiance and it was AAP which led in three of these assembly segments. However, in Ballimaran and Chandni Chowk, a massive division of votes between AAP and Congress saw the BJP taking the lead. There are another five assembly seats where Muslims are between 30 and 40% of the total population. These are Mustafabad, Babarpur, Seemapuri, Shahdara and Rithala. Here, too, a division of votes between the Congress and AAP in the Lok Sabha elections resulted in the BJP being ahead on four seats. Given this background, tactical voting by Muslims in favour of one party or another could well prove to be decisive. The probability of it being in favour of AAP is greater and strengthened by the fact that AAP secured more votes than the Congress in each of the ten segments with high Muslim concentration during the Lok Sabha elections. Young Muslim voters played an important role in giving AAP an advantage over the Congress in Muslim areas. A survey done by CSDS reveals that whereas AAP and Congress were neck and neck among elderly Muslim voters in 2014, among young Muslims (18-35 years) AAP led the Congress by nearly 30 percentage points. With a decisive swing of Muslim voters towards it and possible fragmentation in the non-Muslim wards, AAP is likely to win most of the Muslim-concentrated seats in this election. A bigger challenge for AAP is going to be getting votes among the other religious minority, the Sikhs, who form 4 per cent of Delhi's population and are highly concentrated in five assembly seats - Tilak Nagar, Hari Nagar, Rajouri Garden, Jangpura, Kalkaji and Shahdara - four of which are being contested by BJP's ally, Shiromani Akali Dal. Between 1998 and 2008, the Sikhs of Delhi were almost equally divided between the BJP and the Congress (see table 4). However, in 2013, AAP managed to dent the Congress' Sikh base by securing over a quarter (26%) of the Sikh vote and won from as many as three Sikhconcentrated constituencies. In the 2014 parliamentary elections, however, the party failed to retain its Sikh support, with its vote share going down to 16 per cent and the BJP secured over two-thirds of the Sikh vote. The Modi government's recent decision to provide an additional compensation to the families of Sikhs killed in 1984 riots could help the BJP retain its advantage among the community. http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-01-26/news/58470333_1_delhi-assembly-aap-muslim-mlas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Has Prashant Bhushan accused Kejriwal of selecting candidates with money/muscle power recently ? If so, he might get kicked out of AAP soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texan Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Hopefully, we can get a poll of opinion polls results compiled at some time. At the moment, it looks too close to call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aaku Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Go on, vote for her A2d-Ae9bIB8 :haha: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bulbul Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Go on, vote for her A2d-Ae9bIB8 :haha: Modi fanatic's GF laughing at others :cantstop: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FischerTal Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Go on, vote for her A2d-Ae9bIB8 :haha: Your bf certainly will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desi Cartman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 And that's what she isn't happy about, did you miss the point of her other thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Go on, vote for her A2d-Ae9bIB8 :haha: Bedi has improved BJP's chances in delhi, but she is no modi when it comes to public speaking.:cantstop: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desi Cartman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Why is BJP+COngress not an option, just like arrangement in Maharashtra you never know when BJP will get support from Congress :dontknow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desi Cartman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I know who Bedi is voting for https://twitter.com/thekiranbedi/status/130549474731884544 @AmardeepP111 u r alleging. Arvind is the cleanest person one can come across. The country is fortunate to have such youth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bulbul Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Why is BJP+COngress not an option' date=' just like arrangement in Maharashtra you never know when BJP will get support from Congress :dontknow:[/quote'] Because AAPCon already partners :dontknow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bulbul Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 And that's what she isn't happy about' date=' did you miss the point of her other thread?[/quote'] If he gives her more gifts she will vote 2 to 3 times for Bedi :--D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desi Cartman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Because AAPCon already partners :dontknow: But congress and Pawar weren't allies before elections so BJP can use opposition parties :dontknow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bulbul Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 But congress and Pawar weren't allies before elections so BJP can use opposition parties :dontknow: Problem is AAPCon are natural partners and many AAP supporters are ex-Con's so chemistry is greater there. Kejri will start drama and cry if Con party supports BJP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asterix Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Nice interview of KB with Barkha's today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aaku Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 If he gives her more gifts she will vote 2 to 3 times for Bedi :--D Plzzz am not avsarwaadi like bedi ji :beee: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desi Cartman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Problem is AAPCon are natural partners and many AAP supporters are ex-Con's so chemistry is greater there. Kejri will start drama and cry if Con party supports BJP. Aren't some ex aap now congress? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedFever Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 arent all AAPtards, closet congress supporters ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dial_100 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Why is BJP+COngress not an option' date=' just like arrangement in Maharashtra you never know when BJP will get support from Congress :dontknow:[/quote'] In Maha, they have not caused re-elections on tax payers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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