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Pak qualification scenarios


Kalia_Test

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I know many matches are still left but given that the next fun match ( padosis ) is 9 long days away :(( , it is probably good to look at scenarios where an early flight to Karachi is possible... Basic analysis ------------------ For the top 4 sides in our group , it was assumed that wins against the 3 minnows( Zim,Ire,UAE) is enough and matches against other 3 'top' teams will only decide position. With the above, Pak is in no way guaranteed to be out :nervous: as it has not ( yet :--D ) lost to any minnow. However, Ire has beaten WI and this makes it interesting. Also, Pak RR is pathetic after 2 drubbings. So at a basic level 1) If Ire beats Zim and UAE and loses ( not massively ) against Ind,SA and Pak AND 2) Pak loses against SA and wins against Ire,Zim and UAE AND 3) WI loses against SA and Ind and wins against Zim and UAE then Pak,Ire and WI will have equal points and NRR will come into picture. Is this right? To generate our own interest in otherwise meaningless matches, what can be the ideal scenarios that will add upto to padosis getting kicked out? Any washouts which can help the scenario? p.s I assumed Ind and SA will win all minnow matches :nervous:

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I know many matches are still left but given that the next fun match ( padosis ) is 9 long days away :(( , it is probably good to look at scenarios where an early flight to Karachi is possible... Basic analysis ------------------ For the top 4 sides in our group , it was assumed that wins against the 3 minnows( Zim,Ire,UAE) is enough and matches against other 3 'top' teams will only decide position. With the above, Pak is in no way guaranteed to be out :nervous: as it has not ( yet :--D ) lost to any minnow. However, Ire has beaten WI and this makes it interesting. Also, Pak RR is pathetic after 2 drubbings. So at a basic level 1) If Ire beats Zim and UAE and loses ( not massively ) against Ind,SA and Pak AND 2) Pak loses against SA and wins against Ire,Zim and UAE AND 3) WI loses against SA and Ind and wins against Zim and UAE p.s I assumed Ind and SA will win all minnow matches :nervous:
Spot On.. You are considering the best possible scenario for Pakistan from this stage: However their exit could be easier if any of the following happen: 1: PAK loses to Ireland and Ireland does not mess up with other minnows 2: The match between Ireland and PAK gets abandoned 3: WI wins against India as this would then guarantee WI a spot and there will then be a 2 way battle of Ireland and PAK for the 4th spot (well not exactly easier for PAK exit but still..) 4: If PAK Vs ZIM or PAK Vs UAE is abandoned Actually even if PAK goes on to win the remaining matches except SA as you have mentioned it will still be difficult due to their run rate
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Spot On.. You are considering the best possible scenario for Pakistan from this stage: However their exit could be easier if any of the following happen: 1: PAK loses to Ireland and Ireland does not mess up with other minnows 2: The match between Ireland and PAK gets abandoned 3: WI wins against India as this would then guarantee WI a spot and there will then be a 2 way battle of Ireland and PAK for the 4th spot (well not exactly easier for PAK exit but still..) 4: If PAK Vs ZIM or PAK Vs UAE is abandoned Actually even if PAK goes on to win the remaining matches except SA as you have mentioned it will still be difficult due to their run rate
:two_thumbs_up: It means, if we somehow win against SA tomorrow ( very unlikely ), then we will be in a position to give one more dhakka by 'allowing' an upset against us ( WI or Ire ) :winky:
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:two_thumbs_up: It means, if we somehow win against SA tomorrow ( very unlikely ), then we will be in a position to give one more dhakka by 'allowing' an upset against us ( WI or Ire ) :winky:
:nice: In fact if we drop points against any of WI/Ireland but win against SA, what it will do is that there will be a 2 way battle instead of a 3 way battle for Pakistan. So probably we can drop points against the team that has the least run rate :--D And even if we lose to both SA and WI/Ireland, there will still be a 2 way battle for the 4th spot for Pakistan but this will also jeopardize our chances of finishing second :((
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