Can any statistical analysis accuratey rank great fast bowlers?

[Harsh Thakor]

In cricket often statistics do noy tell the entire story.Below I am reposting sections of 2 of Anantha Narayana's analysis 's of great fast bowlers.I have tried to ***** whether any statistical analysis can do true justice to the great fast bowlers of all time.,in terms of ranking them in order. August 10, 2010 The fearsome fifteen: a look at the great bowlers The first is that I have selected ten measures and given equal weight to all. That way I reduce the chances of subjective valuations. The next is that for each measure, the best gets the maximum points, viz., 10.0 and the others get proportionate points. This reduces the possibility of differential weights and ensures a fair allocation of points. The following measures are used. 1. Wickets captured. 2. Bowling strike rate (Bpw). 3. Bowling accuracy (Rpo). (These two are components of the Bowling average, but have been considered independently). 4. Quality of wickets captured (Average of dismissed batsmen's batting averages) 5. Away bowling average. 6. % of top order wickets captured. 7. Team load borne by bowler (balls bowled and wickets captured). 8. Ratio of bowling average to peer bowling average - all teams. 9. Ratio of bowling average to peer bowling average - other bowlers of own team. 10.Win index (Combination of two ratios)- (% of win wickets to career wickets and % of win wickets to team win wickets). Now for the summary table. Total Wkts BowSR RpO WkQty AwAvg TORto TmLd Peer1 Peer2 WinId Muralitharan M 87.54 10.00 7.52 9.10 7.87 7.74 6.99 10.00 9.53 9.25 9.54 McGrath G.D 85.38 7.04 8.18 8.98 7.46 9.70 10.00 6.85 9.84 7.49 9.84 Hadlee R.J 84.89 5.39 8.42 8.29 9.18 9.31 8.75 8.26 9.33 10.00 7.96 Marshall M.D 83.36 4.70 9.30 7.99 8.92 9.35 8.87 6.89 10.00 7.63 9.73 Ambrose C.E.L 82.72 5.06 7.62 10.00 7.77 9.98 9.46 6.76 9.76 8.04 8.27 Imran Khan 81.00 4.53 7.79 8.74 10.00 7.99 9.21 7.40 9.09 8.98 7.27 Lillee D.K 80.76 4.44 8.17 7.61 9.54 8.70 9.33 7.62 8.59 7.74 9.01 Donald A.A 79.75 4.12 9.24 7.19 7.79 8.93 9.92 7.01 9.24 7.80 8.51 Garner J 79.34 3.24 8.41 9.12 8.61 10.00 8.09 6.74 9.73 7.54 7.86 Warne S.K 78.63 8.85 6.99 8.18 7.17 8.33 6.35 7.77 8.35 6.63 10.00 Trueman F.S 76.86 3.84 8.72 8.35 6.91 8.04 9.04 6.71 9.25 7.62 8.38 Wasim Akram 76.37 5.18 7.60 8.49 7.59 8.77 7.86 6.92 8.77 7.51 7.68 Waqar Younis 75.84 4.66 10.00 5.02 7.89 7.99 8.72 6.63 8.79 7.32 8.81 Kumble A 71.40 7.74 5.16 7.95 7.96 4.26 7.64 8.21 7.14 7.33 8.01 Kapil Dev N 68.24 5.43 5.61 7.49 9.25 5.83 9.84 6.14 7.00 7.70 3.96 It does not matter which route is taken, be it the high road or low road, be it the country road or the highway, be it the scenic route or the road through the concrete jungle, there is only one destination. The one which proclaims Muralitharan as the best amongst the equals. Let no one forget the X-factor here, the impact Muralitharan has had on Sri Lankan cricket. Glenn McGrath comes in next, a well-deserved place for this outstanding metronome. Richard Hadlee, the legendary fast bowler from down under clocks in the third position. Malcolm Marshall, that fearsome Bajan fast bowling "giant" is in fourth position, closely followed by the other Caribbean giant, this time physically also, Curtley Ambrose. Imran Khan follows next, a well-deserved position for this wonderful bowler, batsman and born leader of men, despite playing in quite a few tests as a batsman. Dennis Lillee, one of the all-time greats, follows next. He is the highest placed bowler who does not lead in any category. Alan Donald is in seventh position, closely followed by the other West Indian giant, Joel Garner. Now comes Shane Warne, a well-deserved top-10 position for this magician. The third section of the table is led by the fiery Englishman, Trueman. Now we have arguably the best fast bowling pair ever, Wasim Akram and Waqar Younis, paired together here also. The two Indian bowlers come in next. First, Anil Kumble, whose contributions to Indian cricket can be matched by only one player, the little master. One could say the same of Kapil Dev. The fact that these two Indian stalwarts come in at the end indicates that India has traditionally relied on its batting. However these two are definitely India's best bowlers ever. Positions 1.Murali 2.Mcgrath 3.Hadlee 4.Marshall 5.Ambrose 6.Imran 7.Lillee 8.Donald 9.Garner 10.Warne Postscript: In response to the readers' requests I have added Holding, Botham, Underwood and Shaun Pollock (my choice) and presented the revised table below. Surprisingly, it is Shaun pollock who comes into the table in the 11th position, followed by Holding in 12th position. Underwood comes in the 16th position and is followed by Botham. My view. Really suprising how low Wasim Akram is rated at 12th position and that Shane Warne is rated below Joel Garner.Murali is about 7 places above Warne which is bewildering.Joel Garner and Alan Donald are ahead of Akram which is also strange.Had Packer performances been added Lillee would have edged Imran.However still strange to read Wasim Akram about 7 points below Ambrose and 8 places belom Marshall who is just 0.75 ahead of Curtly.To me Warne and Akram are underestimated and arguably Waqar.Significant to see Imran and Lillee virtually neck to neck with each other just like Marshall and Ambrose. Now see this other analysis by Anantha Narayana This one includes match performances which made the crucial difference. August 7, 2009 Test bowlers analysis: a follow-up Match Performances (Maximum 40 points) The following factors are used to analyze the match performances of bowlers. The total points secured is divided by the number of innspells (my own term indicating a qualifying bowling stint, taking care to exclude bowling efforts such as 5-0-17-0 et al). Base points - Wickets captured - Balls bowled - to recognize long spells - Batsmen dismissed - based on his score at time of dismissal Multiplicative factors - Overall quality of batting team (primarily top-7 batsmen) - Bowling accuracy (relative to the innings scoring rate) - Match-related pitch characteristics - An adjustment for pace bowlers bowling in the Asian subcontinent and spinners bowling outside - Match situation - Home/Away (incorporating relative team strengths) - Result (incorporating relative team strengths) - Series situation B. Career Achievements (Maximum 40 points) This is an equally important aspect of any such analysis. It also encompasses aspects of bowling which do not require consideration of the match conditions or situation. The only longevity measure is the "Career wickets captured" measure, carrying 5 points (6.2%). This will incorporate the following factors. - Career wickets captured (5 points) - Career wickets per innspell (5 points) - Bowling Strike rate-BpW (10 points) - Bowling accuracy-RpO (5 points) - Average Quality of batsmen dismissed - based on CtD bat avge (5 points) - Type of wickets captured - Top/Middle order/Late order (5 points) - Performance ratio - % of wickets captured to % of balls bowled (5 points). . Current era (1970-2000): Table of top bowlers No.Cty Bowler BT Total Match Wkt Bow Bow Wkt Wkt Cons Peer Peer Pts Perf Pts StRt Acc BtAvg Qlty Idx S/R RpO Max 85-90 40-45 10.0 9.0 6.0 5.5 2.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 1.Slk Muralitharan M ROB 56.95 22.76 8.24 6.89 4.47 4.01 2.05 3.62 2.48 2.43 2.Nzl Hadlee R.J RFM 54.46 22.03 5.33 7.89 3.89 4.73 2.10 3.58 2.88 2.03 3.Aus Warne S.K RLB 53.79 22.13 7.33 6.59 4.18 3.69 1.89 3.43 2.35 2.20 4.Aus Lillee D.K RF 53.18 21.83 4.53 7.81 3.68 4.92 2.18 3.55 2.81 1.88 5.Pak Imran Khan RF 52.70 21.36 4.60 7.55 3.98 5.15 2.14 3.11 2.72 2.09 6.Win Marshall M.D RF 50.85 18.99 4.55 8.19 3.88 4.59 2.21 3.32 3.09 2.02 7.Aus McGrath G.D RFM 50.80 18.94 5.93 7.21 4.39 3.84 2.24 3.27 2.63 2.36 8.Pak Waqar Younis RFM 49.73 19.41 4.56 8.15 3.35 4.07 2.12 3.19 3.16 1.72 9.Saf Donald A.A RF 49.29 18.68 4.21 7.71 3.85 4.01 2.22 3.73 2.94 1.95 10.Win Ambrose C.E.L RF 49.27 18.67 4.71 7.06 4.41 4.00 2.17 3.33 2.52 2.40 11.Ind Kumble A RLB 49.22 19.07 6.54 5.65 4.12 4.13 2.03 3.47 2.03 2.18 12.Pak Wasim Akram LFM 48.70 18.77 4.85 7.06 4.11 3.91 1.95 3.37 2.56 2.13 13.Win Holding M.A RF 47.76 17.43 3.39 7.90 3.70 5.06 2.17 3.39 2.80 1.92 14.Saf Pollock S.M RFM 47.64 17.53 4.72 6.55 4.57 4.04 2.12 3.30 2.32 2.50 15.Win Garner J RF 47.26 17.11 3.49 7.84 4.10 4.44 1.99 3.32 2.80 2.16 Comparison to previous test analysis. Here Lillee climbs upto 4 from 6 in the previous analysis,Mcgrath goes down from 1 to 7,Ambrose declines from 6 to 10,Waqar ascends from 12 to 9,Marshall declines from 3-6,Imran ascends from 6 to 4. positions 1.Murali 2.Hadlee 3.Warne 4.Lillee 5.Imran 6.Marshall 7.Mcgrath 8.Waqar 9.Donald 10.Ambrose 11.Kumble 12.Akram My view Arguably more accurate than the previous assesment by Anantha doing more justice to Lillee,Warne and Imran.Lillee and Imran are again very close.What made the significant difference was taking the match performances into account where Lillee and Imran scored over Akram,Mcgrath and Marshall.Wasim had better match performances overall than Donald , Ambrose and Waqar and almost as good as Mcgrath.Howver still he is around 12. Thus I feel that whatevever criteria you sue no statistical analysis can do absolute justice to the true greatness of a bowler.Otherwise Wasim Akram would not be at 12 who is arguably at 1-3,or Mcgrath at 7 in one and on top on another or Shane Warne ,the best bowler of all time at 12 in one and 4 in another.Warne should have been at the top and Akram not far behind.Perhaps justice has been done to Marshall,Ambrose and Mcgrath in the 2010 analysis and to Lillee and Imran in the 2009 analysis. .

[kosingh]

No cricketing analysis can statistically rank any cricketers/teams. Too many uncontrollables. Doing so is futile, even if entertaining and useful for interesting discussion.

[gattaca]

But all ur posts are based on statistics isn't it ?