The BSE/NSE Trading Thread

[randomGuy 687]

On 15/07/2016 at 11:14 AM, randomGuy said:

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[velu 16,137]

2 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

On 15 July 2016 at 11:14 AM, randomGuy said:

jjhmkjhkjhkjhjkbb

[velu 16,137]

yeah .. wipro sort of corrected a bit starting from infy result

IT doesnt look good for medium term .. everyone gave very conservative guidance 

[randomGuy 687]

I think high growth period in IT is over. most of the software have been developed in every sector and even testing, maintenance has been automated....

 

So the stocks had rallied w/o solid ground to back them. Having said this, there isnt more than 10%n downside in most IT stocks now.

[velu 16,137]

stocks will almost always tracks the forward earnings..

TCS doesnt look bad now .. even infy looks good at 1080 than when it was at 1250 ( solid 15% correction )

 

when the high growth stock disappoints its natural to get rerated ..

[randomGuy 687]

1 hour ago, velu said:

Good for PSU banks..

Another thing in progress is merging few small banks with SBI

I heard there will be only 6 PSU banks (SBI, BoB, PNB, CANBK etc) and rest all will be merged in these 6.

[randomGuy 687]

5 minutes ago, velu said:

stocks will almost always tracks the forward earnings..

TCS doesnt look bad now .. even infy looks good at 1080 than when it was at 1250 ( solid 15% correction )

 

when the high growth stock disappoints its natural to get rerated ..

Someone experienced told me and i saw with own observation as well that its profitable to wait for good stocks to correct 20-30% from top and then take entry in them for long term. 20-25% correction in bigger cos. (TCS, Infy) and 25-30% in midcap (mindtree, wipro, hcl etc)....

 

ofcourse one has to watch technicals and fundamentals as well.

Edited July 19, 2016 by randomGuy

[velu 16,137]

9 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

I heard there will be only 6 PSU banks (SBI, BoB, PNB, CANBK etc) and rest all will be merged in these 6.

1303_bizgraphic.jpg

[velu 16,137]

6 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

Someone experienced told me and i saw with own observation as well that its profitable to wait for good stocks to correct 20-30% from top and then take entry in them for long term. 20-25% correction in bigger cos. (TCS, Infy) and 25-30% in midcap (mindtree, wipro, hcl etc)....

 

ofcourse one has to watch technicals and fundamentals as well.

 

abe.. wipro and hcltech are largecap IT stocks .. both are part of Nifty 50 index :poink:

 

i think mindtree is already down by 20%

[randomGuy 687]

8 minutes ago, velu said:

 

abe.. wipro and hcltech are largecap IT stocks .. both are part of Nifty 50 index :poink:

 

i think mindtree is already down by 20%

Yes they are.

 

Yes, but the point was, try to wait for 20-30% correction. Its not a hard and fast rule but still, good to keep in mind.

[velu 16,137]

Just now, randomGuy said:

Yes they are.

 

Yes, but the point was, try to wait for 20-30% correction. Its not a hard and fast rule but still, good to keep in mind.

 

modi is doing lots of reforms/tinkering which definitely is in favour the mkt ..

my view is every dip is a buying opportunity 

[randomGuy 687]

14 minutes ago, velu said:

 

modi is doing lots of reforms/tinkering which definitely is in favour the mkt ..

my view is every dip is a buying opportunity 

Not for expensive stocks.. for ex. Motilal oswal trading at ~35 pe.....i bought at 290 2 months back and still hold it. I won't suggest to buy it on smaller dips coz its expensive.

 

 

So where there is big discount to intrinsic value or relative valuations, u can buy any time. For ex manappuram i bought near highs at 45/- but it quickly went upto 80in 2 months.

 

 

So it not a hard and fast rule. Be flexible in buying and selling. And use all the knowledge and experience that u have acquired.

 

I wanna strongly suggest researchbytes.com to everyone and listen to concalls of the cos. U wanna invest in.

Edited July 19, 2016 by randomGuy

[randomGuy 687]

I had done some back of the envelope calculation for a Mature stabilised running size of housing finance market. so for anyone who is interested -

 

Average Age (life expectancy) of house or apartment = 80 yrs.

 

India's peak population=150cr.

 

Average household size when Indian economy matures = 3 members per household (right now it is 4.8 for India , 3.1 for China iirc and 2.x for US, Germany, Japan etc)

 

Meaning India needs 150/3=50cr new houses every 80 yrs. Or 50/80crore new houses per year.

 

Occupancy rate = 100% (meaning all houses are occupied, either owned or taken on rent)

 

For each and every house, let us say 15 lac loan is taken. Some people need no loan, some 5 lacs , some 20 lacs, some 30 lacs...
I have taken 15 lacs as an average for every new house bought. Your assumption here may be different from mine.

 

Let us say the loan is taken for 15 yrs period on average.

 

So when India becomes a optimal economy (where say everyone is eligible for a 15 lac loan), then at all times, the total running asset size (loan book size or the total outstanding loans ) of the home loans would be=

50/80(15+14+13+12...+2+1) lac crores = 75 lac crore = 75 trillion rupees

 

Pls note that it is the running outstanding loan book size. so someone who took loan for 15lacs 1 year back , assume 14 lacs is outstanding loan now. someone who took loan for 15lacs 2 year back , assume 13 lacs is outstanding loan now. (hence 15+14+13...+1 in above calculations)

 

According to NHB (national housing board) data, it was 10 trillion rupees 2 yrs back growing at 20-25% cagr. So, at this point, it should be 15 trillion rupees.

 

That gives a 5 fold increase possibility till the time India becomes a more prosperous economy.

 

15 trillion rupees is 11.5% of 2 trillion dollar economy (taking exchange rate of 65 rupees per USD).

 

Let us say, the GDP size is 5 trillion USD when the housing finance market does become 75 trillion rupees. Taking same exchange rate of 65 rupees: 75/(5*65)=23%

 

Compare with other countries: China's home loan market is 20% of its GDP at this point BTW. And USA's mortgage debt is 45% of its GDP.

Edited July 21, 2016 by randomGuy

[randomGuy 687]

motilal q1 80 cr vs 47 cr qoq vs 27 cr yoy

 

touched 504 today i sold ...booked 3 lac profit (in 2 months)

 

Edited July 22, 2016 by randomGuy

[randomGuy 687]

arman ( largest holding) up as well... satin as well

[velu 16,137]

motilal q1 80 cr vs 47 cr qoq vs 27 cr yoy

 

touched 504 today i sold ...booked 3 lac profit (in 2 months)

 

Wats ur portfolio size?

[randomGuy 687]

5 minutes ago, velu said:

Wats ur portfolio size?

can't tell on forum. just this that I dont invest in real estate so significant chunk of savings is in stocks. 

[velu 16,137]

can't tell on forum. just this that I dont invest in real estate so significant chunk of savings is in stocks. 

I invested most of my earnings in RE , in my native..

But in stocks , only trading

[randomGuy 687]

I invested most of my earnings in RE , in my native..

But in stocks , only trading

ok good. which place btw?

 

Some stock are good for long term also btw....for ex. arman fin. - market cap for just ~180 cr. now. Transparent, ethical management (listen to concalls etc), wanting to grow at 70% this year, and similar rates for next 4-5 years....and maintain RoE at 18-20%.

 

For 180 cr. Mcap, its easier to envisage 10x growth (it'll just become 1800 cr. Mcap) than for a larger co. (for 5000cr. co. it has to become 50,000 cr to grow 10x).

 

I am invested in these stocks. So my views are biased and do ur own due diligence before investing.

[velu 16,137]

11 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

ok good. which place btw?

 

Some stock are good for long term also btw....for ex. arman fin. - market cap for just ~180 cr. now. Transparent, ethical management (listen to concalls etc), wanting to grow at 70% this year, and similar rates for next 4-5 years....and maintain RoE at 18-20%.

 

For 180 cr. Mcap, its easier to envisage 10x growth (it'll just become 1800 cr. Mcap) than for a larger co. (for 5000cr. co. it has to become 50,000 cr to grow 10x).

 

I am invested in these stocks. So my views are biased and do ur own due diligence before investing.

 

Bhavani .. near erode/coimbatore if u know the geography of TN..

most investors blindly follow the news flow .. rarely they do fundamental analysis by themselves ( still these underrated companies need someone to bring them to limelight )..

 

my first company went for IPO long back before i joined .. issue price was 260 but it was trading at 600rs within a year ( sasken )

and considering the crap we do at office , i decided not to invest .. later stock plunged to 60 or 70rs

 

i mostly do options .. cover it in a day or two and run away

[randomGuy 687]

3 minutes ago, velu said:

 

Bhavani .. near erode/coimbatore if u know the geography of TN..

most investors blindly follow the news flow .. rarely they do fundamental analysis by themselves ( still these underrated companies need someone to bring them to limelight )..

 

my first company went for IPO long back before i joined .. issue price was 260 but it was trading at 600rs within a year ( sasken )

and considering the crap we do at office , i decided not to invest .. later stock plunged to 60 or 70rs

 

i mostly do options .. cover it in a day or two and run away

Good.... researchbtyes website is a massive asset for retail.

 

I was holding arman a few months before any MF entered it thanks to RB... reliance mutual fund entered a couple of weeks back . usually they don't invest in such miccrocaps 

[velu 16,137]

11 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

Good.... researchbtyes website is a massive asset for retail.

 

I was holding arman a few months before any MF entered it thanks to RB... reliance mutual fund entered a couple of weeks back . usually they don't invest in such miccrocaps 

there are so many such sites .. but what we need is the site which will bring all the latest news 

every broker tries their best .. zerodha has got zerodha pulse , will put the news asap .. but nothing beats good old tv 

[Malcolm Merlyn 2,355]

 

Bhavani .. near erode/coimbatore if u know the geography of TN..

most investors blindly follow the news flow .. rarely they do fundamental analysis by themselves ( still these underrated companies need someone to bring them to limelight )..

 

my first company went for IPO long back before i joined .. issue price was 260 but it was trading at 600rs within a year ( sasken )

and considering the crap we do at office , i decided not to invest .. later stock plunged to 60 or 70rs

 

i mostly do options .. cover it in a day or two and run away

Sasken was such a blue eyed stock.They supposedly had a very elite selection procedure for hiring.Then it all came down.And knowing that they hired you just makes it clearer.

[randomGuy 687]

MFI (microfinance) space seems to be on crack. Equitas declares great results after Bharat fin. inclusion (sks micro). Satin, Ujjivan, Arman operate in same space. Results are expected to be fab in these as well.

[velu 16,137]

^^

 

bharat finance results came on friday and it shot up .. ( i usually follow all the results of the scripts which is in f&o )..

all non banking finance too went up .. l&tfin , m&mfin etc

[Debutant 664]

I have always been fascinated by the options trading but still don't do it because of its high volatility. I have read and heard from many that shorting options is much more profitable than buying them as they deprecate with time. What do you guys generally do  buy or short ??? 

[velu 16,137]

I have always been fascinated by the options trading but still don't do it because of its high volatility. I have read and heard from many that shorting options is much more profitable than buying them as they deprecate with time. What do you guys generally do  buy or short ??? 

I do trade mostly in stock options..

Almost all stock option trades are shorts ( outside the money options and some times i hedge it )..

When we short options after some events , we are with time as well as volatility..

Here we have to avoid shorting before any major events like results, brexit , election etc

In index buying is preferable and mostly play in bank nifty weekly options..

But i would still short otm options to go with my atm options

[G_B_ 2,155]

Options trading is probably least volatile. Losses can easily be limited

Sent from my Wileyfox Swift using Tapatalk

[Debutant 664]

6 hours ago, velu said:

I do trade mostly in stock options..

Almost all stock option trades are shorts ( outside the money options and some times i hedge it )..

When we short options after some events , we are with time as well as volatility..

Here we have to avoid shorting before any major events like results, brexit , election etc

In index buying is preferable and mostly play in bank nifty weekly options..

But i would still short otm options to go with my atm options

But stock options are not that liquid. Volume is always very low. 

[velu 16,137]

But stock options are not that liquid. Volume is always very low. 

All actively traded stocks have liquid option..

We cant compare it with stock futures anyway

[velu 16,137]

Options trading is probably least volatile. Losses can easily be limited

Sent from my Wileyfox Swift using Tapatalk

Premium is extremely volatile..

Since no daily settlement in options unlike futures, most feel its less volatile

[G_B_ 2,155]

Premium is extremely volatile..

Since no daily settlement in options unlike futures, most feel its less volatile

Yeah but u get forwards and futures wrong u are in deep shit

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[velu 16,137]

7 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

Yeah but u get forwards and futures wrong u are in deep shit

Sent from my Wileyfox Swift using Tapatalk

 

there is some safety net in option shorting .. before and after an event , vix will be high and so does the option premium

but once the event cools down , vix and option price will drop ( not considering the price movement )

 

in options too margins will increase based on how close your option is to the strike .. brokers will cover our postions automatically

SEBI will charge fine if the client dont maintain the span margin and i guess they fine the brokers heavily if the allow the client to do it

[randomGuy 687]

Satin satin satin, pls dont go up so fast. You are abt to become a 2 bagger in 2-3 months for me if u go up 10% more and I might have to sell u, i dont want to! 

[velu 16,137]

axis bank gave poor result .. looks like even private bank recovery needs time

 

vedl and cairn again started cooking

[randomGuy 687]

GB, Velu, Sunny, Any opinions on crude oil price?

[velu 16,137]

1 minute ago, randomGuy said:

GB, Velu, Sunny, Any opinions on crude oil price?

wrong guys ..

i did commodity ( bullion and base metals ) long long ago and i didnt like to follow the mkts 24*7

 

 

[randomGuy 687]

10 minutes ago, velu said:

wrong guys ..

i did commodity ( bullion and base metals ) long long ago and i didnt like to follow the mkts 24*7

 

 

ok. I wasnt asking for commodity trading but for variety of other reasons.

[velu 16,137]

canara bank gave better than expected results and its up..

only 2 more days are there for expiry , but the option premiums are unusually high considering no news flow is there for the next 2 days related to it

[randomGuy 687]

6 minutes ago, velu said:

canara bank gave better than expected results and its up..

only 2 more days are there for expiry , but the option premiums are unusually high considering no news flow is there for the next 2 days related to it

Futures price: 263

 

Call Option premium at 265 : 5.5

 

Spot price: 263

 

There is an arbitrage.

should one short 265 call option and go long on Futures?

 

 

[velu 16,137]

Just now, randomGuy said:

Futures price: 263

 

Call Option premium at 265 : 5.5

 

Spot price: 263

 

There is an arbitrage.

should one short 265 call option and go long on Futures?

 

 

 

nah..

what if canbk goes to 250 .. no arbitrage here

if long future and long put gives net +ve , then its arbitrage .. or short future and long call 

 

i meant 265 call be ideally trading at 2.5rs , but its 5 odd rupees now

240 put shpuld be trading for 0.3rs kind , but its at 0.75 now

 

i am tracking this bcoz it came up with its result yesterday

[randomGuy 687]

Option writing strategy -

http://ftp.motilaloswal.com/emailer/Marketdiary/OptionWriter/OptionWriter26thJuly2016.pdf 

[velu 16,137]

1 hour ago, randomGuy said:

Option writing strategy -

http://ftp.motilaloswal.com/emailer/Marketdiary/OptionWriter/OptionWriter26thJuly2016.pdf 

looks like they just gave short strangle on little liquid stocks ..

risk to reward is not in favor  and  considering premiums are very , shorting options is unnecessary risk..

 

the guy who prepared this is a novice ( some of the results are about to come in the next days on or b4 expiry )..

 

for ex:-

previous expiry ashok leyland moved from 97 to 105 on the expiry day .. 

 

 

 

[velu 16,137]

@Malcolm Merlyn

 

Asian Paints will be declaring their results today ( after 2.30 )

[Malcolm Merlyn 2,355]

2 hours ago, velu said:

@Malcolm Merlyn

 

Asian Paints will be declaring their results today ( after 2.30 )

as long as the stock is above 850 levels i am profitable as i am holding it for long.The stock is at 1060 levels now.

[randomGuy 687]

7 hours ago, velu said:

looks like they just gave short strangle on little liquid stocks ..

risk to reward is not in favor  and  considering premiums are very , shorting options is unnecessary risk..

 

the guy who prepared this is a novice ( some of the results are about to come in the next days on or b4 expiry )..

 

for ex:-

previous expiry ashok leyland moved from 97 to 105 on the expiry day .. 

 

 

 

Right. Even for dr reddy, very bad results... could easily slip below 3200. Yet he has suggested to short 3200 put.

 

Plus the suggestions on illiquid counters and volatile counters.

 

 But still it is good to see the suggestions(, of course we must not enter any trade without properly evaluating)    .  

[velu 16,137]

Right. Even for dr reddy, very bad results... could easily slip below 3200. Yet he has suggested to short 3200 put.

 

Plus the suggestions on illiquid counters and volatile counters.

 

 But still it is good to see the suggestions(, of course we must not enter any trade without properly evaluating)    .  

Dr.Reddy at 3000 now

I think the report just gives what to short.

Like short calls n puts of the same scripts are different calls.

They just gave how much returns it will give if we short .

I have no doubt that whoever prepared the list never done any trading in options.

[velu 16,137]

Another thing to note here is that we cant short at the levels they mentioned bcoz of time decay.

Canbk 240 put sell at 0.85 ..

But highest price for today is 0.4

[randomGuy 687]

38 minutes ago, velu said:

Dr.Reddy at 3000 now

I think the report just gives what to short.

Like short calls n puts of the same scripts are different calls.

They just gave how much returns it will give if we short .

I have no doubt that whoever prepared the list never done any trading in options.

and he suggests '90% confidence level' as written in the report. Lol.

 

Anyhow, congratulations to me, Satin has become a 2 bagger+ in 2-3 months. still holding...will maybe sell or maybe not. i like this stock alot.

 

Arman is the big bet though.

[velu 16,137]

i shorted canbk 240 put .. i want to cover it for 0.1 or max 0.2 .. but the spread now is huge bcoz of poor liquidity