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21 minutes ago, jusarrived said:

How did it go for you past few weeks? Lot of 250 pt swing days 

 

last 2 months are good for bank nifty trades .. got 7-8% returns each

stoped doing 4 legged bank nifty trades because most pft goes to the brokerage and also premiums are comparatively very low these days ..  so doing mostly short straddle or strangle

 

250pt moves are not that bad  for the net short trades  in bank nifty .. probable loss will be 10-15 points

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59 minutes ago, velu said:

 

last 2 months are good for bank nifty trades .. got 7-8% returns each

stoped doing 4 legged bank nifty trades because most pft goes to the brokerage and also premiums are comparatively very low these days ..  so doing mostly short straddle or strangle

 

250pt moves are not that bad  for the net short trades  in bank nifty .. probable loss will be 10-15 points

Cool. Just doesn't work for me, I tried a few times but I lose patience. I think I had one bad day losing about 25 pts, but profits where not marginal. Picking a direction works for me much better. 

 

Curious how shorting will work once the trading hrs are extended, the premiums should go up but decay should be much less? 

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3 hours ago, jusarrived said:

Cool. Just doesn't work for me, I tried a few times but I lose patience. I think I had one bad day losing about 25 pts, but profits where not marginal. Picking a direction works for me much better. 

 

Curious how shorting will work once the trading hrs are extended, the premiums should go up but decay should be much less? 

Maybe not as the expiry happens on the same day as before. Premiums are probably decided on 'x' days to expiry, not on 'x' trading hours to expiry. 

Edited by randomGuy

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12 hours ago, jusarrived said:

Cool. Just doesn't work for me, I tried a few times but I lose patience. I think I had one bad day losing about 25 pts, but profits where not marginal. Picking a direction works for me much better. 

 

Curious how shorting will work once the trading hrs are extended, the premiums should go up but decay should be much less? 

 

overall option premiums will come down , because now people have more hours ( important bcoz it can trade even after DJ opens ) ..

like if the bank nifty starddle cost 300pts , it might cost 275 kind ..

 

8 hours ago, randomGuy said:

Maybe not as the expiry happens on the same day as before. Premiums are probably decided on 'x' days to expiry, not on 'x' trading hours to expiry. 

 

there will be net  decay during the trading hours as well .. like  friday BN strangle was at 385 in the opening and 335 when closing ..

closing price at 3.30 is usually less than the theoretical closing price ( without considering demand & supply ) bcoz otherwise people will short and eat premiums ..

 

forgot the term .. will google and update it later

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31 minutes ago, velu said:

 

overall option premiums will come down , because now people have more hours ( important bcoz it can trade even after DJ opens ) ..

like if the bank nifty starddle cost 300pts , it might cost 275 kind ..

 

 

there will be net  decay during the trading hours as well .. like  friday BN strangle was at 385 in the opening and 335 when closing ..

closing price at 3.30 is usually less than the theoretical closing price ( without considering demand & supply ) bcoz otherwise people will short and eat premiums ..

 

forgot the term .. will google and update it later

 

 

9 hours ago, randomGuy said:

Maybe not as the expiry happens on the same day as before. Premiums are probably decided on 'x' days to expiry, not on 'x' trading hours to expiry. 

 

still not sure how premiums will come down ?  irrespective of the days , the more time for expiry the I would play higher premium . your time value has to go up ? This is effectively like how next weeks premiums will quote higher than this weeks .

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45 minutes ago, jusarrived said:

 

 

 

still not sure how premiums will come down ?  irrespective of the days , the more time for expiry the I would play higher premium . your time value has to go up ? This is effectively like how next weeks premiums will quote higher than this weeks .

 

since psot-mkt hours are open , they have more time to hedge the risks .. so vix will go down

like premiums now will include the post mkt hour risks from 3.30pm , but now participants have time till 11.00pm to handle those 

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On 4/2/2018 at 10:52 PM, diga said:

With Trumpanomics/Tariff wars, will we see Nifty below 10k in this series? 

 

ps: What are the chances of it goiing below 8k now that there is a lot of talk about uncertainity about Modi's re-election?

NIFTY stands at 11244.70 on close today. 

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6 hours ago, jusarrived said:

 

 

 

still not sure how premiums will come down ?  irrespective of the days , the more time for expiry the I would play higher premium . your time value has to go up ? This is effectively like how next weeks premiums will quote higher than this weeks .

Premium must go to zero at expiry. If we increase trading hours but keep expiry date as fixed, then just rate of change of premiums (represented in premium decrease per hour) will slow down.

Edited by randomGuy

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1 hour ago, diga said:

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/india-sees-worst-outflow-fiis-693583.html

 

India sees worst outflow of FIIs/FPIs in 18 years... Does this mean another recession/political instability in 2019 for India?

 

Money has been moving out out for EMs , was expected with fed rate hikes .

Depends on how you look at it . The inflows have been higher in past few years as well , so the record outflow means very little  and also in the same period DIIs have pumped in ~70k cr . I dont think we are close to a recession , infact most indicators show an upward swing for india . 

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On 8/2/2018 at 9:58 PM, randomGuy said:

Premium must go to zero at expiry. If we increase trading hours but keep expiry date as fixed, then just rate of change of premiums (represented in premium decrease per hour) will slow down.

I get that , rate of change is fine ..but the main factor of premium value is time 

On 8/2/2018 at 4:20 PM, velu said:

 

since psot-mkt hours are open , they have more time to hedge the risks .. so vix will go down

like premiums now will include the post mkt hour risks from 3.30pm , but now participants have time till 11.00pm to handle those 

I agree with post market risks , but to negate that with longer market hours you are exposed for longer hours so its not like hedging will stop . The deacy you notice during closing and market opening may actually reduce ?

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3 minutes ago, jusarrived said:

I get that , rate of change is fine ..but the main factor of premium value is time 

I agree with post market risks , but to negate that with longer market hours you are exposed for longer hours so its not like hedging will stop . The deacy you notice during closing and market opening may actually reduce ?

 

if there are global events after post mkt session , people who hedge will do it before 3.30..

those hedges now will be pushed and they can actually wait till 11.00pm and decide to hedge or not..

 

if the events are expected post us mkt hours , they have to hedge

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5 hours ago, velu said:

 

 

highly doubt that ... whatever happens us mkts keeps going up 

you never know , if not breaking 10k there is every chance we will get close to it . 

We are overreacting though , i feel the recovery will also be much faster this time .

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49 minutes ago, jusarrived said:

you never know , if not breaking 10k there is every chance we will get close to it . 

We are overreacting though , i feel the recovery will also be much faster this time .

 

obviously nothing is sure in mkts .. but if i want to give a call on whether it will touch 10k or not for short term , i would say no ..

crude and rupee are the bumps for us . but rbi might intervene soon ..

 

last 300/400pts are ebcause of micronews and they are overblown out of proportion ..

also participants have the tendency to put RBI or even FED under pressure for smaller rate hikes 

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3 hours ago, velu said:

10,300 :fear1:

was 11,800 one month back .. 1,500pts in one month 

bad for option sellers 

I think 10k will break in the coming week ... too much of downward momentum

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5 minutes ago, diga said:

I think 10k will break in the coming week ... too much of downward momentum

 

i thought mkt will recover after RBI meet , but it went up a bit after the announcement but went even further down later ..

mkt consolidated arnd 10k for more than year .. lets see

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ILFS added fuel to fire. The rupee & dollar factor, Oil prices as well as trade wars are not helping. IMO this crash will take a lot longer to recover than 2008 one because the ILFS issue will have a lot of impact. Lack of liquidity and election year will not help as well in quick recovery. 

 

People are also  redeeming mutual funds units, the mutual funds are withdrawing from bonds as well. DSP divesting 200 crore is a warning of what can happen if someone else withdraws from ILFS CP. Very likely again by some other fund manager.

 

Lot of stocks are at 52 week lows and will continue downward trend. But I see this as best time to shape up the portfolio and cash on this huge sell offs.

Edited by Straight Drive

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On 10/5/2018 at 9:13 PM, velu said:

10,300 :fear1:

 

was 11,800 one month back .. 1,500pts in one month 

bad for option sellers 

its been ridiculous past few days , markets been changing direction 3-4 times in a day . it was very easy to make money in sept .

I thot I  traded exceptionally well to save my capital last few days lol 

 

if the market continues to show weakness , shorting IT could pay off ..there is not much left in Banks .

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22 minutes ago, jusarrived said:

its been ridiculous past few days , markets been changing direction 3-4 times in a day . it was very easy to make money in sept .

I thot I  traded exceptionally well to save my capital last few days lol 

 

if the market continues to show weakness , shorting IT could pay off ..there is not much left in Banks .

 

i am not into any direction based strategy :fencing:

generally retail will turn bullish at the top and turn bearish at the bottom of the mkts :phehe: 

 

my view is bank nifty looks stronger than nifty and last 300pt down move in nifty after RBI decision was overdoing ..

anyway we are into result season , mkt need a reason to move up or down 

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