Mohammad Amir's stats - hype vs reality

[New guy]

How successful has Amir been when compared to his hype many years ago? Hype based on one sole season in England? Amir had one amazing season no doubt, but he is not the first one to do great on swinging English pitches, players like RP Singh did the same

 

Amir was always treated as a special, special talent and he did show great glimpses of it. Even in the T20 Asia cup, we saw what he could do on swinging pitches. PCB went out of the way to help him after the spot fixing scandal, tried to rehabilitate him, brought him back immediately to the national team.  He always gets the new ball and is the leader of Pak pace attack

 

Do the numbers match up to the hype? Lets take a look

 

Amir's average currently stands at 32.49. Since his comeback, he has been averaging 38.26

 

Country played against, Amir averages over 35 against every single country except England (27.67) and Australia (32.3) The Australia average includes 2 matches played in the same English conditions where he averaged 22.2. In Australia he averages over 40

 

Career summary

Grouping	Span	Mat	Runs	HS	Bat Av	100	Wkts	BBI	Bowl Av	5	Ct	St	Ave Diff
v Australia	2009-2016	6	171	48	19.00	0	24	5/79	32.33	1	0	0	-13.33
v England	2010-2016	8	174	39*	14.50	0	31	6/84	27.67	2	0	0	-13.17
v New Zealand	2009-2016	5	115	26	11.50	0	14	3/43	36.14	0	0	0	-24.64
v Sri Lanka	2009-2009	3	37	22*	12.33	0	6	3/38	43.50	0	0	0	-31.16
v West Indies	2016-2016	2	29	20	9.66	0	6	3/63	38.50	0	1	0	-28.83

 

 

Amir has played in Australia, New Zealand, England, UAE and Sri Lanka. He averages over 35 in each of those countries except England and averages over 40 in both Australia and Sri Lanka while averaging over 38 in UAE

 

in Australia	2009-2016	4	147	48	24.50	0	13	5/79	40.84	1	0	0	-16.34
in England	2010-2016	10	198	39*	13.20	0	42	6/84	26.26	2	0	0	-13.06
in New Zealand	2009-2016	5	115	26	11.50	0	14	3/43	36.14	0	0	0	-24.64
in Sri Lanka	2009-2009	3	37	22*	12.33	0	6	3/38	43.50	0	0	0	-31.16
in U.A.E.	2016-2016	2	29	20	9.66	0	6	3/63	38.50	0	1	0	-28.83

 

Year wise, even before his ban, Amir averaged 41 in 7 matches in 2009. 2010 is the only year he excelled because of one English season in amazing swinging conditions. Here is the season wise average breakup

 

2009 season - average 43.5

2009/10 season - average 41.9

2010 season - average 19.8

2016 season - average 42.4

2016/17 season - average 35.5

 

The 2010 season average seems more and more like an anomaly as time goes by. I think he still looks impressive and beats the bat. But most of his effectiveness comes from the new ball swing. His yorker and short ball seems non-existent and he has lost his in-dipper. He clocks some speed on the speed gun yet looks innocuous. Even the excuse of the 5 year delay doesn't seem to hold water considering his record before his ban outside of England. Do remember that in the period since his comeback he has played in some helpful pitches in England and New Zealand too. 

 

How long will talent give him a free pass considering PCB fought tooth and nail to get him back in the team? Seeing Pakistan's seam bowling options I am sure Amir might still be best for the team. However, those who saw a promising fast bowler emerge and were following his progress with interest might be disappointed with his performance so far. 

Edited December 29, 2016 by New guy

[MCcricket]

He is still new to the scene, comeback after such a long time ain't a joke, also his pace is down comparatively, he will get better, but to me he will be a good bowler but not a great one, maybe around 30 ish ave

[kosingh]

The hope was that he would be the next Wasim Akram. In that sense, the hype was a bit over the top. At end of it he may be more Chaminda Vaas. Very good, but perhaps not ATG.

[jusarrived]

54 minutes ago, MCcricket said:

He is still new to the scene, comeback after such a long time ain't a joke, also his pace is down comparatively, he will get better, but to me he will be a good bowler but not a great one, maybe around 30 ish ave

He was never that great even before the ban . Has been extremely lucky to have played 80% of his games away from home . Hes below average in SC conditions . Wahab and Rahat have more skillful and closer to being a all conditions bowler than Amir .

[sandeep]

Numbers don't always tell the whole story.  He's bowled better than what his numbers are.  He's facing the problem that most Indian pacers historically faced - lack of quality at the other end.  Bowlers do need sustained pressure to increase their wicket hauls, else the opposition can just play out the top bowler without risk and find release against the others.  

 

This is not to say that the hype on him is a bit OTT.  It always was because the potential he flashed in his early returns at a fantastic age raised expectations that he was the next great Pakistani pacer of all-world calibre after the Ws.  Safe to say he hasn't lived up to that.  But those expectations are still alive, albeit on life support.

[jusarrived]

19 minutes ago, sandeep said:

Numbers don't always tell the whole story.  He's bowled better than what his numbers are.  He's facing the problem that most Indian pacers historically faced - lack of quality at the other end.  Bowlers do need sustained pressure to increase their wicket hauls, else the opposition can just play out the top bowler without risk and find release against the others.  

 

This is not to say that the hype on him is a bit OTT.  It always was because the potential he flashed in his early returns at a fantastic age raised expectations that he was the next great Pakistani pacer of all-world calibre after the Ws.  Safe to say he hasn't lived up to that.  But those expectations are still alive, albeit on life support.

In Places like Eng , NZ and Aus its easy to look great without getting wickets . The bounce , pace and swing available makes any decent bowler look like a world beater . The ball zips past , the bounce is exaggerated and swing ensures bowlers frequently beat the bat which offcourse makes for attractive watching . 

 

I dont agree there is a lack of quality at other end . Wahab has some match winning performances both home away , infact he won a game for Pak in England last time they toured . Hes inconsistent , but on his day he can take the pitch out of the equation .  You will see him bowling at 150 kph irrespective of the pitch , while Amir looks like a tundler . When he plays enough matches in SC you will see his average settle somewhere ~35-38 . 

[sandeep]

1 minute ago, jusarrived said:

In Places like Eng , NZ and Aus its easy to look great without getting wickets . The bounce , pace and swing available makes any decent bowler look like a world beater . The ball zips past , the bounce is exaggerated and swing ensures bowlers frequently beat the bat which offcourse makes for attractive watching . 

 

I dont agree there is a lack of quality at other end . Wahab has some match winning performances both home away , infact he won a game for Pak in England last time they toured . Hes inconsistent , but on his day he can take the pitch out of the equation .  You will see him bowling at 150 kph irrespective of the pitch , while Amir looks like a tundler . When he plays enough matches in SC you will see his average settle somewhere ~35-38 . 

Sure, but he's "looked good" on the UAE pitches as well.  Not saying he's not overhyped, but he's not as bad as his numbers suggest.  

 

Posted this earlier also - Indian fans are the mirror image of Pak fans when it comes to over-emphasizing numbers for bowling (batting for Pak fans).  I'm sure somewhere on the interwebs there must be a Pak fan posting how Asad Shafique is a much better batsman than Ajinkya Rahane, with stats to back his post, while those who understand batting will know better.  

 

Regardless, I personally feel wickets and bowling averages are a very incomplete picture when it comes to evaluating bowlers - lacks too much context.  Its easy for an average bowler to come in and pick up bunch of wickets in a winning team where the top 2 bowlers are already setting up the game, while a real quality bowler can have poor wicket numbers because in tests, Heck even in ODIs, its extremely doable for a batting team to just play the one good bowler out.  

[jusarrived]

8 minutes ago, sandeep said:

Sure, but he's "looked good" on the UAE pitches as well.  Not saying he's not overhyped, but he's not as bad as his numbers suggest.  

 

Posted this earlier also - Indian fans are the mirror image of Pak fans when it comes to over-emphasizing numbers for bowling (batting for Pak fans).  I'm sure somewhere on the interwebs there must be a Pak fan posting how Asad Shafique is a much better batsman than Ajinkya Rahane, with stats to back his post, while those who understand batting will know better.  

 

Regardless, I personally feel wickets and bowling averages are a very incomplete picture when it comes to evaluating bowlers - lacks too much context.  Its easy for an average bowler to come in and pick up bunch of wickets in a winning team where the top 2 bowlers are already setting up the game, while a real quality bowler can have poor wicket numbers because in tests, Heck even in ODIs, its extremely doable for a batting team to just play the one good bowler out.  

 

Nope he did not . Pak fans where complaining how hes lost pace and cant swing the ball . if there is no swing onoffer hes a liability , he has no skills with the old ball . Thats why I rate Wahab and Rahat higher , who have 5-fers on flat pitches . 

 

[jusarrived]

^You seem to be giving excuses for him like Pak fans . Supporting bowlers are bad and now hes not getting wickets cos Pak isnt a winning team ? 

[rkt.india]

1 hour ago, sandeep said:

Numbers don't always tell the whole story.  He's bowled better than what his numbers are.  He's facing the problem that most Indian pacers historically faced - lack of quality at the other end.  Bowlers do need sustained pressure to increase their wicket hauls, else the opposition can just play out the top bowler without risk and find release against the others.  

 

This is not to say that the hype on him is a bit OTT.  It always was because the potential he flashed in his early returns at a fantastic age raised expectations that he was the next great Pakistani pacer of all-world calibre after the Ws.  Safe to say he hasn't lived up to that.  But those expectations are still alive, albeit on life support.

Even Ishant has bowled better than his numbers suggest. 

[sandeep]

You seem to have a problem understanding posts in their entirety and choose to jump to inaccurate conclusions about poster's intent.   There, attitude can go both ways. So can mature discussion.  

[sandeep]

3 minutes ago, rkt.india said:

Even Ishant has bowled better than his numbers suggest. 

Lot of bowlers who bowl better or worse than their numbers. So that doesn't contradict my point anyway.

 

ManBun actually has decent numbers last couple of seasons. He's a different bowler anyway.   

[mancalledsting]

Before he got banned, he had two consecutive good series in the same favourable conditions vs Eng in eng and vs Aus in Eng. also had some good performances in various LOIs. So when he came back it was touted by over enthusiastic Pakistani fans as the return of wasim. I disagreed as when he last left he was a only a potential world class bowler in the making and not an established great. 

 

What do you get when you have young potential world class bowler + 5 year sabbatical? Exactly What were seeing now...someone who's not quite up to the mark. He should have played two seasons in pak domestic and county before returning to international team. International cricket is the not the arena to regain match rhythm and fitness....oh wait a minute, unless your MSD

Edited December 29, 2016 by mancalledsting

[maniac]

He is a good bowler but not a world beater by any means like the pak fans seem to suggest. I have seen him quite a few times since his comeback, he does cause a little discomfort to batsmen and keep them honest.

 

Yes he has been unlucky and has dropped catches of his bowling since comeback but at best that should be weighed in to conclude he has been above average while his stats are average rather than state that he has been great but his stats have been average.

 

Amir is consistent while the likes of Wahab and Sohail bowl a lot of filth amidst some decent spells. So when likes of Wahab and Sohail get it right once in a while and when Amir is at the other end,they do benefit from it.

 

Amir right now just like Ishant in 2011-2012 is the best 3rd seamer to have when you have 2 other quality pacers but far from the main strike bowler.

 

 

[G_B_]

to be fair he has been playing domestic cricket for nearly 1 year before his "re debut"

 

Its not as if he simply was put in. He was banned when he was a teenager and is now back in his mid 20s. So i dont see aging being an issue either.

 

Tend to agree with the analysis of MTC. Swing dependent bowlers like Bhuvi and Aamir tend to have England as an anomaly in their records. I do believe even on the fateful tour of 2011 Praveen Kumar had a good bowling average.

 

 

[G_B_]

and a more apt statistical comparison in the test aerna will be with other Pakistani pacers. They should relatively nullify dropped catches etc.

 

His record in ODIs is also good since comeback. So if it was really the case the the break did affect him, there should not be too much disparity between the numbers of ODIs and Tests. 

[jalebi_bhai]

He's not a strike bowler anymore however, he's shown decent batting ability for a number eight. He can play as the third seamer I guess. 

[Iconoclast]

Since his comeback he's had one dropped catch for every wicket he has taken.

 

With all these drops he should try and get people out bowled and LBW instead of searching for edges.

 

Also he has no partner to create pressure with before

 

Before with Asif the runs were shut down from the other side now batsmen can feast on Sohail/Rahat/Wahab and just play Amir cautiously.

[Asim]

Don't worry, Asif will do much better ;)

[G_B_]

look atleast Asif had some sort of proven track record in tests before the ban. Aamir in english conditions.