Hello there Guest!
Why not register to gain Full access to ICF and start sharing your views!    

Welcome to the Indian Cricket Fans site.

You are currently viewing our Cricket Forum as a guest which gives you limited access to view most cricket videos, discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to watch videos, post topics, respond to polls, upload content and access many other special features. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!

If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact contact us.
Go Back   Indian Cricket Fans > Indian Cricket Fans Message Board > Chit Chat > Politics & Current Affairs
Reply
Thread Tools

Predictions for the 2014 General Elections in India
Unread 07-19-2013, 04:32 AM   #1
The Outsider
The Legend
The Outsider's Avatar
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 28,713
$ICF: 1,985,221,416
Predictions for the 2014 General Elections in India

Here are mine - for most of the smaller states(1-2 seats) I've just filled in the numbers based on previous results as I don't know enough about the local politics in those states.

Two major states where I had a tough time coming up with predictions were Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal - alliance will completely change the game here. Anyhow, just for fun put yours in and we can keep updating them after any minor/major development.

1. Andhra Pradesh - 42

Congress: 16
YRS + TRS: 16
TDP: 10

2. Arunachal Pradesh - 2

Congress: 2

3. Assam - 14

Congress: 8
BJP: 1
Others: 5

4. Bihar - 40

JDU: 15
RJD: 13
BJP: 7
Congress: 4
Others: 1

5. Chhattisgarh - 11

BJP: 8
Congress: 3

6. Goa - 2

BJP: 1
Congress: 1

7. Gujarat - 26

BJP: 18
Congress: 8

8. Haryana - 10

Congress: 6
BJP: 1
Others: 3

9. Himachal Pradesh - 4

BJP: 2
Congress: 2

10. Jammu and Kashmir - 6

Congress: 3
Others: 3

11. Jharkhand - 14

BJP: 7
Congress: 3
Others: 4

12. Karnataka - 28

Congress: 16
JDS: 6
BJP: 6

13. Kerela - 20

Congress: 12
Left: 8

14. Madhya Pradesh - 29

BJP: 22
Congress: 7

15. Maharashtra - 48

Congress + NCP: 20
BJP + SS: 28

16. Manipur - 2

Congress: 2

17. Meghalaya - 2

Congress: 2

18. Mizoram - 1

Congress: 1

19. Nagaland - 1

Congress: 1

20. Orissa - 21

BJD: 12
Congress: 9

21. Punjab - 13

Congress: 7
BJP + SAD: 6

22. Rajasthan - 25

BJP: 15
Congress: 10

23. Sikkim - 1

Congress: 1

24. Tamil Nadu - 39

AIADMK: 18
Congress: 14
DMK: 7

25. Tripura - 2

Congress: 2

26. Uttar Pradesh - 80

SP: 28
BSP: 20
BJP: 15
Congress: 15
Others: 2

27. Uttarakhand - 5

BJP: 3
Congress: 2

28. West Bengal - 42

TNC: 17
Left: 15
Congress: 10

29. Andaman and Nicobar Islands - 1

BJP: 1

30. Chandigarh - 1

BJP: 1

31. Dadra and Nagar Haveli - 1

BJP: 1

32. Daman and Diu - 1

BJP: 1

33. Delhi - 7

BJP: 4
Congress: 3

34. Lakshadweep - 1

Congress: 1

35. Pondicherry - 1

Congress: 1

Congress + NCP = 192
BJP + SS + SAD = 148
SP: 28
Left: 23
BSP: 20
AIADMK: 18
TNC: 17
YRS + TRS: 16
JDU: 15
RJD: 13
TDP: 10
DMK: 7
JDS: 6


Others: 18
Sachin Tendulkar is the number 1 batsman of his generation.

" In our society, a man who does not cry at his mother's funeral is liable to be condemned to death"
- Albert Camus in the foreward to "The Outsider"

"Mother died today. Or, maybe, yesterday; I can't be sure" - The first few sentences of "The Outsider" by Camus
Alt Today
Advertising

Beitrag Sponsored Links

__________________
This advertising will not be shown in this way to registered members.
Register your free account today and become a member on Indian Cricket Fans
   

Unread 07-19-2013, 04:44 AM   #2
Khalpat
Prince of Calcutta
Khalpat's Avatar
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,360
$ICF: 5,668,302
4. Bihar - 40

JDU: 15
RJD: 13
BJP: 7
Congress: 4
Others: 1

Well you would be surprised after the results. JDU and RJD popularity is at all time low and Congress do not even exist here.

UP, Bihar, Haryana and Karnataka will give more seat to BJP than your prediction rest all looks good.
यहाँ सब कुछ बिकता है , दोस्तों रहना जरा संभाल के !!!
बेचने वाले हवा भी बेच देते है , गुब्बारों में डाल के !!!
सच बिकता है , झूट बिकता है, बिकती है हर कहानी !!!
...तीन लोक में फेला है , फिर भी बिकता है बोतल में पानी!!!
कभी फूलों की तरह मत जीना,
जिस दिन खिलोगे... टूट कर बिखर्र जाओगे ।
जीना है तो पत्थर की तरह जियो;
जिस दिन तराशे गए... "खुदा" बन जाओगे ।।

--हरिवंशराय बच्चन

Unread 07-19-2013, 04:55 AM   #3
The Outsider
The Legend
The Outsider's Avatar
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 28,713
$ICF: 1,985,221,416
^ Let's leave the Congress-BJP fights for other threads, and there are plenty. How about trying to keep this thread for predictions and why you think someone's prediction is wrong and someone's is right?

In that spirit, can you elaborate why I have underestimated BJP numbers in those states - it's quite possible I have, but my reasons for the predictions were:

1. UP - Haven't seen any significant tilt towards Modi or Hindutva.
2. Bihar - BJP's historical and grass-root presence is very low.
3. Haryana - BJP has hardly had any presence, ever except in aliance.
4. Karnataka - Here I think they can go up from my prediction of 6, but not by much maybe up to 8-9, depends on how long their poor governance memory remains and how the new Congress government does.
Sachin Tendulkar is the number 1 batsman of his generation.

" In our society, a man who does not cry at his mother's funeral is liable to be condemned to death"
- Albert Camus in the foreward to "The Outsider"

"Mother died today. Or, maybe, yesterday; I can't be sure" - The first few sentences of "The Outsider" by Camus

Unread 07-19-2013, 05:17 AM   #4
Khalpat
Prince of Calcutta
Khalpat's Avatar
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,360
$ICF: 5,668,302
Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
^ Let's leave the Congress-BJP fights for other threads, and there are plenty. How about trying to keep this thread for predictions and why you think someone's prediction is wrong and someone's is right?

In that spirit, can you elaborate why I have underestimated BJP numbers in those states - it's quite possible I have, but my reasons for the predictions were:

1. UP - Haven't seen any significant tilt towards Modi or Hindutva.
2. Bihar - BJP's historical and grass-root presence is very low.
3. Haryana - BJP has hardly had any presence, ever except in aliance.
4. Karnataka - Here I think they can go up from my prediction of 6, but not by much maybe up to 8-9, depends on how long their poor governance memory remains and how the new Congress government does.
UP: The team of Shah and Modi have prepared the strategy of targeting each and every 3 hundred thousand poll booth by placing one karyakarta per booth and strictly ordering them not to go outside the area of their poll booth and they all have to target each and every house/family concentration will be a t grasroot not district level. I think this is interesting strategy and this might work. Plus SP has been very poor in administration respect and they will certainly face the anti incumbency factor. Mayawati has stil not been able to strentghen her after recent loss in Assembly. Congress has nothing except Rahul/Sonia roadshow which I am afraid would be not helpful in even gettin g Raibareli seat.

Bihar: Bihar has always been more on caste based side when voting happens. JDU has become extremely unpopular amoung Bhumihar and Forward caste who are a big vote bank for BJP. The OBC vote will be divided into RJD, JDU and BJP. Muslim vote will split into Congress, RJD and JDU which will profit BJP. My assumption is BJP will get most number of seats here. Leaders like Rudy, RaviShankar Prasad, Shehnawaz, Yashwant Si nha all belong to Bihar and will be fighting from here only which provides the star power.
यहाँ सब कुछ बिकता है , दोस्तों रहना जरा संभाल के !!!
बेचने वाले हवा भी बेच देते है , गुब्बारों में डाल के !!!
सच बिकता है , झूट बिकता है, बिकती है हर कहानी !!!
...तीन लोक में फेला है , फिर भी बिकता है बोतल में पानी!!!
कभी फूलों की तरह मत जीना,
जिस दिन खिलोगे... टूट कर बिखर्र जाओगे ।
जीना है तो पत्थर की तरह जियो;
जिस दिन तराशे गए... "खुदा" बन जाओगे ।।

--हरिवंशराय बच्चन

Unread 07-19-2013, 07:37 AM   #5
Sachin=GOD
***100***
Sachin=GOD's Avatar
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 28,885
$ICF: 24,209,449,972,888
Quote Originally Posted by Khalpat View Post
UP: The team of Shah and Modi have prepared the strategy of targeting each and every 3 hundred thousand poll booth by placing one karyakarta per booth and strictly ordering them not to go outside the area of their poll booth and they all have to target each and every house/family concentration will be a t grasroot not district level. I think this is interesting strategy and this might work. Plus SP has been very poor in administration respect and they will certainly face the anti incumbency factor. Mayawati has stil not been able to strentghen her after recent loss in Assembly. Congress has nothing except Rahul/Sonia roadshow which I am afraid would be not helpful in even gettin g Raibareli seat.

Bihar: Bihar has always been more on caste based side when voting happens. JDU has become extremely unpopular amoung Bhumihar and Forward caste who are a big vote bank for BJP. The OBC vote will be divided into RJD, JDU and BJP. Muslim vote will split into Congress, RJD and JDU which will profit BJP. My assumption is BJP will get most number of seats here. Leaders like Rudy, RaviShankar Prasad, Shehnawaz, Yashwant Si nha all belong to Bihar and will be fighting from here only which provides the star power.
Do you remember why SP didn't win enough seats in 2009 Lok Sabha elections? Or why Cong ended up doing a stunning upset to win 22? The reason was that Mulayam Singh had joined hands with Kalyan Singh and Muslims were so angry at him for this move that they voted for Congress instead of SP. Now here we have the case of BJP, a party they anyways don't vote for and then comes Modi/Shah - do you honestly think Muslims in UP will be happy with this or that SP/Cong will not gain anything form this? I can't say what will happen in the next few months but right now the situation is such that there is no way for the BJP to win more than 15 (in fact I would be quite surprised if they end up winning even that many) in UP.

In Bihar RJD is making a strong comeback and most seats lost by JDU will be gained by them. BJP is at 12 currently - I expect it to end up between 10-15 (i.e. nearly the same as last time).
the memories you have left with me will always be with me forever and ever, especially "Sachin, Sachin" which will reverberate in my ears till I stop breathing.
Sachin Tendulkar

Unread 07-19-2013, 07:42 AM   #6
Sachin=GOD
***100***
Sachin=GOD's Avatar
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 28,885
$ICF: 24,209,449,972,888
As for predictions, I think its too early and a LOT will change in the coming months. Right now it looks like Congress will be coming back because the BJP (or rather Modi) is giving away the election to it. For the BJP, right now I think BJP at its best would struggle to win more than 145 on its own because they are extremely weak/no existent in many states and yet they cannot have any pre poll alliances.

Last edited by Sachin=GOD : 07-19-2013 at 08:39 AM.
the memories you have left with me will always be with me forever and ever, especially "Sachin, Sachin" which will reverberate in my ears till I stop breathing.
Sachin Tendulkar

Unread 07-19-2013, 08:31 AM   #7
randomGuy
Xolo FTW
randomGuy's Avatar
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: India
Posts: 3,197
$ICF: 80,182
My guesses:
1. Andhra Pradesh - 42

Congress: 5
YRS : 14
TRS : 13
TDP: 10

2. Arunachal Pradesh - 2

Congress: 2

3. Assam - 14

Congress: 8
BJP: 1
Others: 5

4. Bihar - 40

JDU: 8
RJD: 2
BJP: 30
Congress: 0
Others: 0

5. Chhattisgarh - 11

BJP: 9
Congress: 2

6. Goa - 2

BJP: 2
Congress: 0

7. Gujarat - 26

BJP: 25
Congress: 1

8. Haryana - 10

Congress: 5
BJP: 4
Others: 1

9. Himachal Pradesh - 4

BJP: 2
Congress: 2

10. Jammu and Kashmir - 6

Congress(NC): 3
BJP: 1
Others: 2

11. Jharkhand - 14

BJP: 7
Congress: 3
Others: 4

12. Karnataka - 28

Congress: 10
JDS: 6
BJP: 12

13. Kerela - 20

Congress: 8
Left: 12

14. Madhya Pradesh - 29

BJP: 24
Congress: 5

15. Maharashtra - 48

Congress + NCP: 16
BJP + SS: 32

16. Manipur - 2

Congress: 2

17. Meghalaya - 2

Congress: 2

18. Mizoram - 1

Congress: 1

19. Nagaland - 1

Congress: 1

20. Orissa - 21

BJD: 17
BJP: 2
Congress: 2

21. Punjab - 13

Congress: 3
BJP + SAD: 10

22. Rajasthan - 25

BJP: 18
Congress: 7

23. Sikkim - 1

Congress: 1

24. Tamil Nadu - 39

AIADMK: 28
BJP(Janata party): 1
Congress: 5
DMK: 5

25. Tripura - 2

Congress: 2

26. Uttar Pradesh - 80

SP: 25
BSP: 25
BJP: 23
Congress: 5
Others: 2

27. Uttarakhand - 5

BJP: 4
Congress: 1

28. West Bengal - 42

TNC: 17
Left: 20
Congress: 5

29. Andaman and Nicobar Islands - 1

BJP: 1

30. Chandigarh - 1

BJP: 1

31. Dadra and Nagar Haveli - 1

BJP: 1

32. Daman and Diu - 1

BJP: 1

33. Delhi - 7

BJP: 6
Congress: 1

34. Lakshadweep - 1

Congress: 1

35. Pondicherry - 1

Congress: 1
Congress + NCP + NC: 99
BJP + SS + Akali + Janata Party: 217
SP: 25
Left: 32
BSP: 25
AIADMK: 28
TNC: 17
YRS: 14
TRS: 13
JDU: 8
RJD: 2
TDP: 10
DMK: 5
JDS: 6
BJD: 17

Last edited by randomGuy : 07-19-2013 at 12:24 PM.

Unread 07-19-2013, 08:56 AM   #8
randomGuy
Xolo FTW
randomGuy's Avatar
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: India
Posts: 3,197
$ICF: 80,182
anti incumbency (of 10 years), corruption, price rise, lack of jobs, weak n sometimes non-existent leadership, anna hazare, ramdev factors - all these will result in massive defeat for congress.

Unread 07-19-2013, 08:59 AM   #9
Sachin=GOD
***100***
Sachin=GOD's Avatar
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 28,885
$ICF: 24,209,449,972,888
Quote Originally Posted by randomGuy View Post
My guesses:


Congress + NCP + NC: 99
BJP + SS + Akali + Janata Party: 217
SP: 25
Left: 32
BSP: 25
AIADMK: 28
TNC: 17
YRS: 14
TRS: 13
JDU: 8
RJD: 2
TDP: 10
DMK: 5
JDS: 6
BJD: 17
All I can say is that aaj ki date mein agar Bhagwaan bhi aajaye BJP ki campaign chalaane toh bhi BJP/NDA ko 217 seats nahi milengi.

Last edited by Sachin=GOD : 07-19-2013 at 09:02 AM.
the memories you have left with me will always be with me forever and ever, especially "Sachin, Sachin" which will reverberate in my ears till I stop breathing.
Sachin Tendulkar

Unread 07-19-2013, 09:28 AM   #10
randomGuy
Xolo FTW
randomGuy's Avatar
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: India
Posts: 3,197
$ICF: 80,182
Quote Originally Posted by Sachin=GOD View Post
All I can say is that aaj ki date mein agar Bhagwaan bhi aajaye BJP ki campaign chalaane toh bhi BJP/NDA ko 217 seats nahi milengi.
Its seems you really want it but saying so coz you dont wanna jinx it.

Unread 07-19-2013, 09:39 AM   #11
Sachin=GOD
***100***
Sachin=GOD's Avatar
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 28,885
$ICF: 24,209,449,972,888
Quote Originally Posted by randomGuy View Post
Its seems you really want it but saying so coz you dont wanna jinx it.
I am a BJP supporter so yes, I do want BJP to win (as long as Modi doesn't become the PM).
But I don't believe in fantasies - BJP, at its highest point, with AtalJi as the leader and with many big pre poll allies, could win only 182 on its own and here you saying 217 for NDA, out of which BJP alone would account for about 200 seats. IMHO that is just fantasy without any basis for how the BJP/NDA could actually get such high numbers (like 25 in Gujrat, 30 in Bihar, 32 in Maharashtra, 23 in UP).
the memories you have left with me will always be with me forever and ever, especially "Sachin, Sachin" which will reverberate in my ears till I stop breathing.
Sachin Tendulkar

Unread 07-19-2013, 09:54 AM   #12
randomGuy
Xolo FTW
randomGuy's Avatar
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: India
Posts: 3,197
$ICF: 80,182
Quote Originally Posted by Sachin=GOD View Post
I am a BJP supporter so yes, I do want BJP to win (as long as Modi doesn't become the PM).
But I don't believe in fantasies - BJP, at its highest point, with AtalJi as the leader and with many big pre poll allies, could win only 182 on its own and here you saying 217 for NDA, out of which BJP alone would account for about 200 seats. IMHO that is just fantasy without any basis for how the BJP/NDA could actually get such high numbers (like 25 in Gujrat, 30 in Bihar, 32 in Maharashtra, 23 in UP).
So it will be abt Modi only in Gujarat n to some extent UP. hence 25 out of 26 in guj.
23 out of 80 in UP is not hard to get , the margins of win are also small.
30 in Bihar coz in 2009 BJP faught on 15 seats, won on 12 seats.
32\48 in Maha though optimistic, is not unrealistic. not like i am giving TN, WB, Assam, Andhra or Orissa to the BJP.

Unread 07-19-2013, 09:55 AM   #13
FischerTal
The Legend
FischerTal's Avatar
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,998
$ICF: 2,110,378,865,872
Quote Originally Posted by Sachin=GOD View Post
I am a BJP supporter so yes, I do want BJP to win (as long as Modi doesn't become the PM).
But I don't believe in fantasies - BJP, at its highest point, with AtalJi as the leader and with many big pre poll allies, could win only 182 on its own and here you saying 217 for NDA, out of which BJP alone would account for about 200 seats. IMHO that is just fantasy without any basis for how the BJP/NDA could actually get such high numbers (like 25 in Gujrat, 30 in Bihar, 32 in Maharashtra, 23 in UP).
Bobby Fischer, Mikhail Tal are my heroes.

Unread 07-19-2013, 10:15 AM   #14
Sachin=GOD
***100***
Sachin=GOD's Avatar
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 28,885
$ICF: 24,209,449,972,888
Quote Originally Posted by randomGuy View Post
So it will be abt Modi only in Gujarat n to some extent UP. hence 25 out of 26 in guj.
23 out of 80 in UP is not hard to get , the margins of win are also small.
30 in Bihar coz in 2009 BJP faught on 15 seats, won on 12 seats.
3248 in Maha though optimistic, is not unrealistic. not like i am giving TN, WB, Assam, Andhra or Orissa to the BJP.
25 out 26 in Gujarat is something that has never ever happened IIRC and I don't see any reason as to why it will suddenly happen now. In 2004, BJP & Cong won 14 & 12 respectively while in 2009 they won 15 & 11 respectively in Gujrat - how do you see BJP going from 14/15 to 25? Or Cong suddenly going from 11/12 to just 1? Its just unrealistic to expect this.

In UP BJP has been winning 10 seats since 2004 and now with Modi as the BJP's face and Amit Shah as the state in charge of UP, I seriously doubt if BJP can cross 15.

In 2009 it wasn't BJP that fought the election - it was the BJP/JDU coalition. Also, RJD was probably at its weakest point in 2009 but has now regained a lot of lost ground. This time around its a bit unpredictable in Bihar but still I don't expect BJP to win/lose more than 3-4 more/less than last time.

In Maharashtra you seem to have forgotten Raj Thakrey - he may also win a few seats. 32 is optimistic but maybe, just maybe there is a chance that BJP/SS may get close to this number.

All these predictions are of course according to the current political scenario. I expect a lot to change in the coming months.

Last edited by Sachin=GOD : 07-19-2013 at 10:19 AM.
the memories you have left with me will always be with me forever and ever, especially "Sachin, Sachin" which will reverberate in my ears till I stop breathing.
Sachin Tendulkar

Unread 07-19-2013, 10:30 AM   #15
Khalpat
Prince of Calcutta
Khalpat's Avatar
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,360
$ICF: 5,668,302
Quote Originally Posted by Sachin=GOD View Post
Do you remember why SP didn't win enough seats in 2009 Lok Sabha elections? Or why Cong ended up doing a stunning upset to win 22? The reason was that Mulayam Singh had joined hands with Kalyan Singh and Muslims were so angry at him for this move that they voted for Congress instead of SP. Now here we have the case of BJP, a party they anyways don't vote for and then comes Modi/Shah - do you honestly think Muslims in UP will be happy with this or that SP/Cong will not gain anything form this? I can't say what will happen in the next few months but right now the situation is such that there is no way for the BJP to win more than 15 (in fact I would be quite surprised if they end up winning even that many) in UP.

In Bihar RJD is making a strong comeback and most seats lost by JDU will be gained by them. BJP is at 12 currently - I expect it to end up between 10-15 (i.e. nearly the same as last time).
Muslims and that too of UP will anyhow are not going to vote for BJP so Modi or no Modi will have no effect on them. BJP has been always winning the urban Lok Sabha seats in UP, the 10-12 seat which we see are the main seats of Lucknow, Varanasi, Allahabad, Gorakhpur etc. This time Shah, who is also hailed as a good strategist is targetting the rural areas. I have met the karyakarta of BJP, beleive me with Modi they are very excited and confident of the prospect. And the strategy of one person allocated to one booth is a brilliant concept they have been told to ask people to vote for BJP on the name of development in urban areas and to rural hardcore religious people ask them to vote for hindutva. Lets see how things unfold in coming days but UP is the key that is for sure.
यहाँ सब कुछ बिकता है , दोस्तों रहना जरा संभाल के !!!
बेचने वाले हवा भी बेच देते है , गुब्बारों में डाल के !!!
सच बिकता है , झूट बिकता है, बिकती है हर कहानी !!!
...तीन लोक में फेला है , फिर भी बिकता है बोतल में पानी!!!
कभी फूलों की तरह मत जीना,
जिस दिन खिलोगे... टूट कर बिखर्र जाओगे ।
जीना है तो पत्थर की तरह जियो;
जिस दिन तराशे गए... "खुदा" बन जाओगे ।।

--हरिवंशराय बच्चन

Unread 07-19-2013, 10:43 AM   #16
Sachin=GOD
***100***
Sachin=GOD's Avatar
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 28,885
$ICF: 24,209,449,972,888
Quote Originally Posted by Khalpat View Post
Muslims and that too of UP will anyhow are not going to vote for BJP so Modi or no Modi will have no effect on them. BJP has been always winning the urban Lok Sabha seats in UP, the 10-12 seat which we see are the main seats of Lucknow, Varanasi, Allahabad, Gorakhpur etc. This time Shah, who is also hailed as a good strategist is targetting the rural areas. I have met the karyakarta of BJP, beleive me with Modi they are very excited and confident of the prospect. And the strategy of one person allocated to one booth is a brilliant concept they have been told to ask people to vote for BJP on the name of development in urban areas and to rural hardcore religious people ask them to vote for hindutva. Lets see how things unfold in coming days but UP is the key that is for sure.
Muslims obviously were not going to vote for the BJP but this time they will vote in larger numbers than usual so as to prevent BJP from winning a large number of seats in UP.
Karyakartas are very happy with the prospect of Modi as the leader but common people aren't. Amit Shah will do more damage than good because he just doesn't know the ground realities of UP politics - last month was the first time he came to Lucknow in his entire life and then of course there's the Ram Mandir issue and the Hindutva agenda that he is trying to raise once again - that can backfire massively IMO. Only time will tell what will actually happen but from what I have seen, BJP's prospects do not look so bright in UP as to win such large numbers as predicted by RandomGuy.
the memories you have left with me will always be with me forever and ever, especially "Sachin, Sachin" which will reverberate in my ears till I stop breathing.
Sachin Tendulkar

Unread 07-19-2013, 12:14 PM   #17
randomGuy
Xolo FTW
randomGuy's Avatar
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: India
Posts: 3,197
$ICF: 80,182
Quote Originally Posted by Sachin=GOD View Post
25 out 26 in Gujarat is something that has never ever happened IIRC and I don't see any reason as to why it will suddenly happen now. In 2004, BJP & Cong won 14 & 12 respectively while in 2009 they won 15 & 11 respectively in Gujrat - how do you see BJP going from 14/15 to 25? Or Cong suddenly going from 11/12 to just 1? Its just unrealistic to expect this.
Bjp will be going to election under Modi who is CM of gujrat for over a decade, people will want their man to be the PM hence will give him all the seats
In UP BJP has been winning 10 seats since 2004 and now with Modi as the BJP's face and Amit Shah as the state in charge of UP, I seriously doubt if BJP can cross 15.
Hindutva politics works in UP. Modi n Amit shah will help here. Muslim votes will be divided bet. SP, BSP n Cong. and BJP will benefit from this division.

In 2009 it wasn't BJP that fought the election - it was the BJP/JDU coalition. Also, RJD was probably at its weakest point in 2009 but has now regained a lot of lost ground. This time around its a bit unpredictable in Bihar but still I don't expect BJP to win/lose more than 3-4 more/less than last time.
Maybe Lalu has lost his credibility forever n will do only marginally better frm 2009. BJP will contest from all 40 seats this time(won 12 out of 15 in 2009). Anti-incumbency(frm state level) will also work against Nitish. The BJP itself is quite strong there n people may see it(n not nitish) as the only alternative to Congress
In Maharashtra you seem to have forgotten Raj Thakrey - he may also win a few seats. 32 is optimistic but maybe, just maybe there is a chance that BJP/SS may get close to this number.
Raj will support NDA eventually if there's choice between nda n upa.

Unread 07-19-2013, 12:21 PM   #18
randomGuy
Xolo FTW
randomGuy's Avatar
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: India
Posts: 3,197
$ICF: 80,182
like i said - anti incumbency, corruption, price rise, lack of jobs, weak Cong. leadership, n bjp being the only option available for the people. whichever state bjp has presence in, it will do well

Unread 07-19-2013, 12:29 PM   #19
randomGuy
Xolo FTW
randomGuy's Avatar
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: India
Posts: 3,197
$ICF: 80,182
this headlines today prediction from may this yr says cong. will get 95, I agree with tht, i do not agree with their BJP tally.

Unread 07-19-2013, 12:35 PM   #20
adi B
zzzz!!
adi B's Avatar
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: blue planet
Posts: 18,324
$ICF: 1,666,286,545,768
disagree with op regarding states like UP,punjab,TN,rajasthan(bit different),bihar,delhi
B what u wanna B !!!!

Unread 07-19-2013, 06:23 PM   #21
Sachin=GOD
***100***
Sachin=GOD's Avatar
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 28,885
$ICF: 24,209,449,972,888
@Mods - plz transfer all the Modi posts form this thread to the "narendra modi thread" so as not to keep this thread only for predictions
the memories you have left with me will always be with me forever and ever, especially "Sachin, Sachin" which will reverberate in my ears till I stop breathing.
Sachin Tendulkar

Unread 07-19-2013, 08:41 PM   #22
asterix
NO PREZZURE!
asterix's Avatar
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 21,276
$ICF: 6,553,830,050
Quote Originally Posted by Sachin=GOD View Post
@Mods - plz transfer all the Modi posts form this thread to the "narendra modi thread" so as not to keep this thread only for predictions
Agree ... Polarisation at work...

Unread 07-19-2013, 09:10 PM   #23
punjabi_khota
Brown Bastard
punjabi_khota's Avatar
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: In the phase space
Posts: 12,513
$ICF: 214,513,646
I can predict what happens AFTER 2014 elections.
More scams.

Unread 07-24-2013, 04:01 PM   #24
Dexter Morgan
Serial Killer
Dexter Morgan's Avatar
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,393
$ICF: 1,320,843,421
IBNLiveRealtime: Election tracker: BJP-Shiv alliance projected to win 18-22 seats in Maharashtra

IBNLiveRealtime: Election tracker: Cong-NCP alliance projected to win 23-27 seats in Maharashtra

Unread 07-25-2013, 04:03 AM   #25
randomGuy
Xolo FTW
randomGuy's Avatar
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: India
Posts: 3,197
$ICF: 80,182
@IBNLiveRealtime Election tracker: BJP projected to win 20-24 seats in Gujarat.

@IBNLiveRealtime Election tracker: Congress projected to win 2-6 seats in Gujarat.

Unread 07-25-2013, 04:08 AM   #26
randomGuy
Xolo FTW
randomGuy's Avatar
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: India
Posts: 3,197
$ICF: 80,182
Opinion Poll 2014

BJP: 156
Congress: 107
NDA allies projected seat tally: SS 16, SAD 7, AGP 2, Independents/Others 5. Total 30.
UPA allies projected seat tally: NCP 8, NC 2, Independents/Others: 12, Total 22.
Leaning BJP: AIADMK 22, TRS 13, BJD 18, Others 12. Total 65
Leaning Congress: YSR 19, DMK 14, RJD 5, Others 10. Total 48
Unattached Regional: JD(U) 15, TMC 25, TDP 5, BSP 22, SP 26,
Left Front 24. Total 117
Summary:
BJP (156) + allies (30)= 186 + Leaning BJP (65) = 251
Congress (107) + allies (22) = 129 + Leaning Congress (48) = 177
Unattached Regional = 117

Last edited by randomGuy : 07-25-2013 at 04:16 AM. Reason: Opinion poll*

Unread 07-25-2013, 04:10 AM   #27
The Outsider
The Legend
The Outsider's Avatar
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 28,713
$ICF: 1,985,221,416
^ Exit poll? The elections haven't even taken place.
Sachin Tendulkar is the number 1 batsman of his generation.

" In our society, a man who does not cry at his mother's funeral is liable to be condemned to death"
- Albert Camus in the foreward to "The Outsider"

"Mother died today. Or, maybe, yesterday; I can't be sure" - The first few sentences of "The Outsider" by Camus

Unread 07-25-2013, 04:15 AM   #28
randomGuy
Xolo FTW
randomGuy's Avatar
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: India
Posts: 3,197
$ICF: 80,182
Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
^ Exit poll? The elections haven't even taken place.
Sorry, opinion poll.

Unread 07-25-2013, 05:47 AM   #29
bulbul
Real Aam Admi
bulbul's Avatar
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Bangalore
Posts: 11,689
$ICF: 53,758,894,227
Some more random numbers


The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance will win 197 seats in the next Lok Sabha elections, compared with 184 for the ruling United Progressive Alliance, leaving a hung house, an opinion poll by The Week magazine has predicted. Other parties will win a total of 162 seats in the 545-member house.

According to the survey, whose sample size was not given, UPA’s vote share will come down to 31.7% from 37.2% in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls while the NDA’s vote share will go up from 23.3% to 26.7%. The vote share of other parties would rise from 39.5% to 41.6%.

The survey said 32% of the respondents felt Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi will be the best prime minister. Manmohan Singh was the second most favored with 15% and Rahul Gandhi was the choice of 13% of the people surveyed.
Eight percent of the respondents picked Sonia Gandhi. Mayawati and L.K. Advani were each favored by 5% of the surveyed people.

Among BJP leaders, Modi was the most favored with 56%. Advani had the support of 15%, followed by Sushma Swaraj (10%), Rajnath Singh (4%) and Nitin Gadkari (3%).

Among Congress leaders, 39% picked Rahul Gandhi while 25% supported Singh and 18% supported Sonia Gandhi.

Asked who would be the best person to lead a potential Third Front government, 19% supported Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar while Mayawati and Mamata Banerjee got the support of 14%.

http://www.indiawest.com/news/11929-...abha-poll.html

Unread 07-25-2013, 05:50 AM   #30
bulbul
Real Aam Admi
bulbul's Avatar
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Bangalore
Posts: 11,689
$ICF: 53,758,894,227
Survey gives BJP an edge over JD-U in Lok Sabha polls after NDA split, Nitish likely to gain in state election


Read more at: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/b.../1/284330.html

Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has been the most sought after man in Indian politics after winning the confidence vote in Bihar Assembly on Wednesday. However, while he remains bullish about his party Janata Dal-United's prospects for 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the reality seems to be painting a different picture.

A Headlines Today-CVoter survey has revealed that if elections are conducted in Bihar today, the ruling JD-U stands to lose massively after its acrimonious split with the BJP and even an alliance with the Congress is unlikely to improve the matters.

In fact, the biggest gainer from the NDA split stands to be Lalu Prasad Yadav's RJD, the opinion poll outcomes suggest.
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/b.../1/284330.html

Unread 07-25-2013, 05:55 AM   #31
bulbul
Real Aam Admi
bulbul's Avatar
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Bangalore
Posts: 11,689
$ICF: 53,758,894,227
If polls were held today, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) will get a mere 136 Lok Sabha seats, according to a survey done by ABP News-Nielsen. The main opposition, National Democratic Alliance, is likely to get 206 seats, while others parties will get 167 seats.
BJP leader Narendra Modi's effect is visible in western states, the survey says. With 80 seats, the NDA is likely to lead in the region. Congress could win 36 seats
http://www.business-standard.com/art...2100013_1.html

Unread 07-25-2013, 07:18 AM   #32
randomGuy
Xolo FTW
randomGuy's Avatar
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: India
Posts: 3,197
$ICF: 80,182
I like this:

Unread 07-25-2013, 03:09 PM   #33
someone
Jumbo
someone's Avatar
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 3,600
$ICF: 500,129,847

Unread 07-25-2013, 06:20 PM   #34
My two cents
Not an AVKC member
My two cents's Avatar
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Am here now
Posts: 13,727
$ICF: 5,793
Quote Originally Posted by someone View Post
How are they able to calculate with and without Modi?
Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent - Asimov

Unread 07-26-2013, 03:36 AM   #35
bulbul
Real Aam Admi
bulbul's Avatar
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Bangalore
Posts: 11,689
$ICF: 53,758,894,227
Every prediction says BJP is going to do well in UP , IS this because of Modi/Shah effect or just fake stats

Unread 07-26-2013, 06:52 AM   #36
randomGuy
Xolo FTW
randomGuy's Avatar
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: India
Posts: 3,197
$ICF: 80,182
Quote Originally Posted by bulbul View Post
Every prediction says BJP is going to do well in UP , IS this because of Modi/Shah effect or just fake stats
20/80 is not that strong yaar. Modi's development and Hindutva factors will be there no doubt, but if they get 60/80, then I would have said the factors really worked.

Unread 07-26-2013, 07:13 AM   #37
ravishingravi
Aflatoon
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 7,564
$ICF: 100,344,728
Do these polls have any meaning in Indian context ?

Unread 07-26-2013, 07:16 AM   #38
bulbul
Real Aam Admi
bulbul's Avatar
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Bangalore
Posts: 11,689
$ICF: 53,758,894,227
Quote Originally Posted by randomGuy View Post
20/80 is not that strong yaar. Modi's development and Hindutva factors will be there no doubt, but if they get 60/80, then I would have said the factors really worked.
Most of them predict 25-30 [ way better than current 10]

Unread 07-26-2013, 07:17 AM   #39
bulbul
Real Aam Admi
bulbul's Avatar
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Bangalore
Posts: 11,689
$ICF: 53,758,894,227
Quote Originally Posted by ravishingravi View Post
Do these polls have any meaning in Indian context ?
Frankly speaking , NO.

But here is a thread with predictions , why can't we add more

Unread 07-26-2013, 09:44 AM   #40
adi B
zzzz!!
adi B's Avatar
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: blue planet
Posts: 18,324
$ICF: 1,666,286,545,768
Quote Originally Posted by randomGuy View Post
20/80 is not that strong yaar. Modi's development and Hindutva factors will be there no doubt, but if they get 60/80, then I would have said the factors really worked.
60 !!
B what u wanna B !!!!
Reply


Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off