sandeep Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 1 hour ago, cowboysfan said: I really dont agree with you,as a guy who lives in a red state i can say that 99% of all republicans will vote for him.The democrats wont win Florida,all trump has to do is hold one of the states like Wisconsin and its done. Trump got a big bump in the "purple" states thanks to anti-incumbency factor. Don't underestimate the '* you' factor, and also, a lot of people (democrats) assumed that Hillary would win anyway. It was a perfect storm that led to Trump winning - he's not going to win PA or Wisconsin. Maybe even Florida. That is, if he is the nominee. He is currently in realistic danger of being forced to resign a la Nixon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachinism Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 (edited) On 9/24/2019 at 2:57 PM, coffee_rules said: Bernie will not get elected if he tweets stuff like this.. Is it because temporarily embarassed billionaires feel that could be me one day. Better let billionaires exploit everyone, otherwise I won't be able to do that when I'm a billionaire? Edited September 25, 2019 by Sachinism GoldenSun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
velu Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 15 minutes ago, Sachinism said: Is it because temporarily embarassed billionaires feel that could be me one day. Better let billionaires exploit everyone, otherwise I won't be able to do that when I'm a billionaire? even urban naxals and your fellow commies wont agree with you if you say bill gates is exploiting everyone probably he donated more to the charity than by your commie/U N/socialists combined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muloghonto Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 1 hour ago, sandeep said: Trump got a big bump in the "purple" states thanks to anti-incumbency factor. Don't underestimate the '* you' factor, and also, a lot of people (democrats) assumed that Hillary would win anyway. It was a perfect storm that led to Trump winning - he's not going to win PA or Wisconsin. Maybe even Florida. That is, if he is the nominee. He is currently in realistic danger of being forced to resign a la Nixon. Well yes, if he is forced to resign it’s a different story. But in US politics anti incumbency only works for the outgoing Presidents party after two terms. This is why 3 consecutive Democrat or Republican presidency is so rare but majority of first term presidents defend their title for second term. Incumbency actually favours the re election campaign of 1 term presidents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandeep Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 44 minutes ago, Muloghonto said: But in US politics anti incumbency only works for the outgoing Presidents party after two terms. Might want to ask Jimmy Carter or George Bush Sr about that tall claim. I.e. circumstances and context matter. Ponga Punditry can be delivered with as much confidence as you can muster, but myths and personal theories don't turn into facts like that. You are free to believe otherwise though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coffee_rules Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 26 minutes ago, sandeep said: Might want to ask Jimmy Carter or George Bush Sr about that tall claim. I.e. circumstances and context matter. Ponga Punditry can be delivered with as much confidence as you can muster, but myths and personal theories don't turn into facts like that. You are free to believe otherwise though. 1992 was because of Ross Perot. 1980 was an exception, Reagan used the Iran crisis very well in campaign. If Bush can win a second term, a wiser Trump will definitely win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandeep Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 25 minutes ago, coffee_rules said: 1992 was because of Ross Perot. 1980 was an exception, Reagan used the Iran crisis very well in campaign. If Bush can win a second term, a wiser Trump will definitely win. Bush won because voters were averse to change due to 9/11. Trump will either get Nixoned or Cartered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gattaca Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 8 hours ago, coffee_rules said: Who ? Comrade Bernie, Biden, Warren, Kamala or Tulsi will win the Dem ticket? Biden is demo candidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gattaca Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 21 minutes ago, sandeep said: Bush won because voters were averse to change due to 9/11. Trump will either get Nixoned or Cartered. Good amount of democratic voters have voted republican last election. Pennsylvania and Michigan flipping should have woken up Democrats. But they don’t understand these simple things on why they flipped. There is a growing resentment in America about Democrats. Highly doubt they will win. Muloghonto 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gattaca Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 3 hours ago, sandeep said: Trump got a big bump in the "purple" states thanks to anti-incumbency factor. Don't underestimate the '* you' factor, and also, a lot of people (democrats) assumed that Hillary would win anyway. It was a perfect storm that led to Trump winning - he's not going to win PA or Wisconsin. Maybe even Florida. That is, if he is the nominee. He is currently in realistic danger of being forced to resign a la Nixon. Michigan is as blue as it can get. It called the blue wall. Trump was able flip that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coffee_rules Posted September 26, 2019 Author Share Posted September 26, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, sandeep said: Bush won because voters were averse to change due to 9/11. Trump will either get Nixoned or Cartered. Trump will probably attack Iran to win 2020. He doesn't have to, the impeachment failure will get him across. They got no Mueller, Ukraine phone call is weak. They will not get 67 votes in the senate. There will be too much focus on Trump to garner whitw American patriot votes Edited September 26, 2019 by coffee_rules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muloghonto Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 2 hours ago, sandeep said: Might want to ask Jimmy Carter or George Bush Sr about that tall claim. I.e. circumstances and context matter. Ponga Punditry can be delivered with as much confidence as you can muster, but myths and personal theories don't turn into facts like that. You are free to believe otherwise though. Do you understand basic English or are you one of the illiterate illegals ?? I said the following: “ But in US politics anti incumbency only works for the outgoing Presidents party after two terms. This is why 3 consecutive Democrat or Republican presidency is so rare but majority of first term presidents defend their title for second term. Incumbency actually favours the re election campaign of 1 term presidents. “ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States jimmy carter, GH Bush and Gerald Ford are the only one term presidents in the list since WWII and the first two are the only time since that period that the party in power has flipped after one term. So you citing a few oddball examples do not counter the point that majority first term presidents defend their presidencies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coffee_rules Posted September 26, 2019 Author Share Posted September 26, 2019 6 minutes ago, Muloghonto said: Do you understand basic English or are you one of the illiterate illegals ?? I said the following: “ But in US politics anti incumbency only works for the outgoing Presidents party after two terms. This is why 3 consecutive Democrat or Republican presidency is so rare but majority of first term presidents defend their title for second term. Incumbency actually favours the re election campaign of 1 term presidents. “ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States jimmy carter, GH Bush and Gerald Ford are the only one term presidents in the list since WWII and the first two are the only time since that period that the party in power has flipped after one term. So you citing a few oddball examples do not counter the point that majority first term presidents defend their presidencies Technically, Ford took over after Nixon fiasco, so was never a first term "elected" President to lose after 1 term. Muloghonto and sandeep 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandeep Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 24 minutes ago, coffee_rules said: Technically, Ford took over after Nixon fiasco, so was never a first term "elected" President to lose after 1 term. Ford was never on an election ticket as a VP candidate, and IIRC he is the only guy to serve as President without ever being elected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandeep Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 (edited) 57 minutes ago, coffee_rules said: Trump will probably attack Iran to win 2020. He doesn't have to, the impeachment failure will get him across. They got no Mueller, Ukraine phone call is weak. They will not get 67 votes in the senate. There will be too much focus on Trump to garner whitw American patriot votes They don't have to "get 67 votes in the Senate". If there is clear cut evidence that Drumpf broke the law - and the fact that senior govt employee took a personal risk in filing that whistleblower complaint implies that there is - then the Republicans themselves will make Drumpf resign, like Nixon. Because that gives them some semblance of a shot for 2020. Replace Drumpf with Pence, claim that a house-cleaning is done, and then fight the Democrats on the traditional turf of high-tax, high spending "socialist" liberals. Even Pelosi knows this, and that's why she didn't bother going for impeachment earlier - it was not in the democratic party's interest to get an impeachment that the Senate won't follow through on. It would either galvanize support for Drumpf, or push the Republicans into jettisoning him and becoming a stronger opponent. But Drumpf's stupidity and the whistle-blower have forced matters now. Remains to be seen whether Pence becomes collateral damage, or remains unscathed enough to ascend to the Presidency. I suspect this is the reason why Drumpf dragged Pence's name into the Ukraine mess, by bringing up his conversations. If he's going down, he wants to take Pence down with him, because that could mean President Pelosi - and that would force the Republicans to back him even if they are reluctant. 56 minutes ago, coffee_rules said: , Ukraine phone call is weak. Btw, the Whistleblower apparently was not aware of this particular phone call. His complaint is apparently a lot more damning. So even if you buy the Faux News spin that the phone call is "weak", which its not btw - that's not the only evidence against Drumpf. The simple fact is that most interactions between heads of state are highly choreographed and planned meticulously in advance. Even phone calls. So there were several rounds of discussions and negotiations between underlings that essentially decided the agenda and talking points for the phone conversation, before the phone was ever dialed. Those discussions and negotiations will have a gigantic paper trail, not to mention several witnesses who would have to take grave personal risk to lie under oath. And once the realization sets in that this issue can't be brazenly wished away by tweeting denials and Fox News trash, the lemmings will start jumping the ship and self-preservation starts kicking in. In fact, I would bet there are serious meetings going on within the Republican party right now, to chalk out the template for the post-Drumpf months leading to November 2020. Mitt Romney is going to be a player in this, I suspect, before long. Edited September 26, 2019 by sandeep Stan AF and coffee_rules 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandeep Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 39 minutes ago, Muloghonto said: Do you understand basic English or are you one of the illiterate illegals ?? I said the following: “ But in US politics anti incumbency only works for the outgoing Presidents party after two terms. This is why 3 consecutive Democrat or Republican presidency is so rare but majority of first term presidents defend their title for second term. Incumbency actually favours the re election campaign of 1 term presidents. “ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States jimmy carter, GH Bush and Gerald Ford are the only one term presidents in the list since WWII and the first two are the only time since that period that the party in power has flipped after one term. So you citing a few oddball examples do not counter the point that majority first term presidents defend their presidencies Just like circumstances led to Carter and Bush being one term presidents, in spite of being reasonably decent Presidents, Drumpf's stupidity has finally caught up to him, and his circumstances doom him to a single term, if that. That is my point. Your silly attempt at provoking me isn't going to work. Try harder next time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muloghonto Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, sandeep said: Just like circumstances led to Carter and Bush being one term presidents, in spite of being reasonably decent Presidents, Drumpf's stupidity has finally caught up to him, and his circumstances doom him to a single term, if that. That is my point. Your silly attempt at provoking me isn't going to work. Try harder next time! Unless he gets impeached, he is a favourite to retain his Presidency. Last time I voted for Hillary, this time will be for Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandeep Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 1 hour ago, gattaca said: Michigan is as blue as it can get. It called the blue wall. Trump was able flip that. I assert that its going to revert back to blue. If Drumpf is on the ballot. But I don't think that's possible now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandeep Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 1 hour ago, gattaca said: Good amount of democratic voters have voted republican last election. Pennsylvania and Michigan flipping should have woken up Democrats. But they don’t understand these simple things on why they flipped. There is a growing resentment in America about Democrats. Highly doubt they will win. I don't disagree. But those 'swing' voters are going to have to swing blue this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandeep Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 12 minutes ago, Muloghonto said: Unless he gets impeached, he is a favourite to retain his Presidency. Last time I voted for Hillary, this time will be for Trump. I thought you were in Canada. I have some bad news for you, Drumpf aint gonna be on the ballot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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