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The French Open 2017


Cricketics

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Djokovic reminds me these days of Mats Wilander. Like Djokovic, he literally fell off the planet- in 1988 he won 3 grand slams and was world #1. In just one year, he exited the top 10 (permanently) and never made another grand slam final. 

Mats Wilander lost interest in tennis, after accomplishing his goal of being #1. Djokovic is showing similar fall in motivation and interest- just goes on to show, how much of the sport is mental.

 

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3 hours ago, surajmal said:

Haven't watched a single match. Is Rafa winning because the field is weak and it is clay or has his game/fitness come around?

Bit of both. 

Rafa is in top form, but Rafa today is not the Rafa of 2014 or younger. He is a step slower, you can see the bottom of the well of his previously 'deeper than the ocean' well of stamina and his forehand is wonkier. But Rafa of today, if not injured and with match practice (which he has this year), is still the best player on clay. Just that he isn't unbeatable anymore. 


Having said that, he has had an easy draw so far but the last two matches will be as tough as they come : Thiem is the best player on clay in 2017 not named Rafa and both Murray and Wawrinka will give him a tough test.

 

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Nadal through to the finals after a straight set win over Thiem, probably the second best player of clay.

 

As good as Wawrinka is in GS finals, Nadal in clay is a whole other level. Title is Nadal's. Wawrinka will be lucky if he wins one set against him.

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20 minutes ago, surajmal said:

Rafa totally bossed that match. I hope, now that he is healthy, he would only focus on Clay and Grass. Forget Hard Courts, prolong your career by 4-5 years, win slams and surpass RF. Thats the only way he will get his due place in history - more Slams than RF. 

Doesn't matter if he wins all of his remaining GS titles on clay. He will still forever be known as the king of clay, and a player who was decent in other surfaces. Unlike Federer, who was dominant in all surfaces including clay(second to nadal).

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2 minutes ago, I6MTW said:

Doesn't matter if he wins all of his remaining GS titles on clay. He will still forever be known as the king of clay, and a player who was decent in other surfaces. Unlike Federer, who was dominant in all surfaces including clay(second to nadal).

GTFO. Rafa has 5 non clay wins and 7 more final appearances. 

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15 minutes ago, surajmal said:

GTFO. Rafa has 5 non clay wins and 7 more final appearances. 

Yeah compared to Federer's 18 GS titles over 3 surfaces(only 1 clay cuz of nadal) and 28 finals appearances. If Nadal were to surpass. Federer's 18 GS titles by winning the french open alone every year, that would not improve his legacy over Federer. People will just claim Nadal as the greatest Clay court player ever. 19 GS titles and 14 of them clay will not help nadal. Now, if he were to win French open a couple more times, and some other slams, then he may have a chance, but still Federer has already cemented his legacy at the top.

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7 minutes ago, I6MTW said:

Yeah compared to Federer's 18 GS titles over 3 surfaces(only 1 clay cuz of nadal) and 28 finals appearances. If Nadal were to surpass. Federer's 18 GS titles by winning the french open alone every year, that would not improve his legacy over Federer. People will just claim Nadal as the greatest Clay court player ever. 19 GS titles and 14 of them clay will not help nadal. Now, if he were to win French open a couple more times, and some other slams, then he may have a chance, but still Federer has already cemented his legacy at the top.

Healthy Nadal would do just fine at Wimbledon. Hard courts take a toll on his knees. Thats why I said that he should just focus on Clay and grass. 

 

I mean, I don't see where you are coming from. If Nadal hadn't been unfit for the the past 3 years, he would have already passed Federer in GS tally. 

Edited by surajmal
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7 minutes ago, surajmal said:

Healthy Nadal would do just fine at Wimbledon. Hard courts take a toll on his knees. Thats why I said that he should just focus on Clay and grass. 

 

I mean, I don't see where you are coming from. If Nadal hadn't been unfit for the the past 3 years, he would have already passed Federer in GS tally. 

 

maybe, maybe not. Djokovic was in his prime the last few years, would've been extremely tough to stop him.

 

Now as for Wimbledon, he might have a chance, but with Federer healthy and in confidence this is his last chance to win it. Especially with Djokovic's decline and confidence shattered. Murray is a fav, and newer gen tennis stars, like Zverev on the rise, Nadal will find it difficult. But going by his french open form this year, his style of play might actually suit Wimbledon this year.

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13 minutes ago, surajmal said:

Healthy Nadal would do just fine at Wimbledon. Hard courts take a toll on his knees. Thats why I said that he should just focus on Clay and grass. 

 

I mean, I don't see where you are coming from. If Nadal hadn't been unfit for the the past 3 years, he would have already passed Federer in GS tally. 

Unlikely.

I saw the last year's FO between Djokovic & Nadal - i don't think even a 2007 Nadal would've beaten 2015 Djokovic at the F/O. Apart from that, he's won every other FO anyways. Also don't see Nadal winning on grass or HC, regardless of his injury situation.


You saying he'd do just fine in Wimbledon is a joke. Nadal did just fine in wimbledon when it was only a three man show- him, Federer and Roddick were the only ones good enough to consistently feature in the last 4 of Wimbledon. Wimbledon is also his worst GS, where he has failed to progress beyond 4th round since 2011. This is because Nadal's only asset on grass is his amazing mobility at his peak. But as he started to age, he simply can't chase down as many 'almost winners' as he used to. Result : he gets blasted off of the court on grass by power hitters like Kyrgios, Brown, etc. 

I'd be surprised if Nadal EVER gets beyond QF in Wimbledon again. 

 

In the last 3 years, Nadal has missed 2 grand slams - Wimbledon (2016) and US Open (2014), aka his worst and second worst GS, respectively. 

 

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9 minutes ago, I6MTW said:

 

maybe, maybe not. Djokovic was in his prime the last few years, would've been extremely tough to stop him.

 

Now as for Wimbledon, he might have a chance, but with Federer healthy and in confidence this is his last chance to win it. Especially with Djokovic's decline and confidence shattered. Murray is a fav, and newer gen tennis stars, like Zverev on the rise, Nadal will find it difficult. But going by his french open form this year, his style of play might actually suit Wimbledon this year.

Nadal has no chance on grass anymore and he knows it. Back in his early/mid 20s he could chase down 'almost winners' till people messed up. If you can't hit clean power-winners (i.e., not winners due to hitting it out of the reach of people, but winners that are too fast to touch) on grass, your only option is to run like a dog and get everything back till the winner-hitter player hits an error. That used to be Nadal's MO on grass when he was young enough to chase everything down. Federer has a killer serve & forehand and so does Kyrgios, Murray has his first serve, so does Raonic, Zverev and Djokovic can hit winners all day with their down-the-line backhand. Nadal ? he has no such tools. His reliance on dragging people off the court to hit winners on the open wing and/or forcing errors on others is a low percentage play on grass.

 

Now, him being a step slower and his forehand losing its killer zing, he'd lose on grass against half a dozen other players. 
On grass, I'd give Federer, Murray, Djokovic, Raonic, Kyrgios and Zverev the clear advantage over Nadal, with possibly Thiem too. 

 

Edited by Muloghonto
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2 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

Nadal has no chance on grass anymore and he knows it. Back in his early/mid 20s he could chase down 'almost winners' till people messed up. Now, him being a step slower and his forehand losing its killer zing, he'd lose on grass against half a dozen other players. 
On grass, I'd give Federer, Murray, Djokovic, Raonic, Kyrgios and Zverev the clear advantage over Nadal, with possibly Thiem too. 

 

Yeah, and don't forget Dimitrov, he's just started to regain his touch. Nadal will find it extremely diff at Wimbledon, and hard courts have always troubled him. Favourites for this year are Murray, and Federer is a dark horse this time around. Wawrinka has always been statistically poor in grass, but he would like to complete his career GS obviously. Djokovic has regressed badly. He needs some time off to set his priorities straight and regain his touch. Clearly his peak is over, he's not going to be a favourite to win Wimbledon for the first time since 12-13.

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^^
I think as of now, Federer is the clear-cut favourite for Wimbledon. Its his strongest surface and with his new 'power backhand', he can shorten points even more there. 
For Murray to be the favourite, Federer needs to come in Wimbledon low on confidence, aka losing early in Stuttgart and Halle. 


I don't think Murray is a threat to Wimbledon this year- because Murray's biggest weapon on grass- his first serve- has regressed badly.

 

If newbies like Kyrgios or Zverev make it to the QF, i'd rate their chances higher than Murray - the young guns problem are surviving no-name players in the first week, when the action is jam-packed and you don't get to plan ahead for your opponents as you don't know them. Young players are less adaptive in match-situation than vets, due to lacking experience.

 

PS: And yes, if Dimitrov faces Nadal on grass, i'd favour Dimitrov too.

Edited by Muloghonto
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I also don't think Wawrinka will win Wimbledon. For one, he isn't a mobile player and grass requires a mobile player, unless you can 'do a Goran' and serve 40 aces a match.

For two, Wawrinka has really huge windup on his power shots, grass doesn't give him adequate time. He is forced to construct points until he receives a really weak shot before he unloads on grass, as opposed to just unloading whenever he feels like it on clay.

 

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