War is coming

[Gollum]

 

[sandeep]

PLA is going to be under pressure to secure something that can be seen as a "win. India's spangsur moves have fed the public perception that India is 'doing better than the PLA'.  This is not the sort of outcome that the Xi and CCP aimed for, by initiating this conflict. 

 

Still a very long way to go, but the next few days likely carry the highest risk and probability of the PLA "making a move".  Most likely in areas where they enjoy tactical dominance already. 

[mishra]

Bad news which is Not sellable to its public, coming  every week. Since no one can win anything in a week or couple of weeks, Chinese can not do 1962. Its as simple as that.

 

one quick solution to Xi Xinping is return back to status quo and fire Zhao Zongqi as by the looks of it, zhao must have clearly known that Post Corona, a war like Tensions with India will only weaken Xi and CCP in eyes of its people. A loss of territory may bring him down. 

[sandeep]

 

[randomGuy]

 

Analysis by Major Arya.

[randomGuy]

Funniest I heard today : Xi ki kursi pe timebomb laga hai (xi can be ousted any time)

[gattaca]

2 hours ago, randomGuy said:

Funniest I heard today : Xi ki kursi pe timebomb laga hai (xi can be ousted any time)

Really hope he is ousted. He cant be trusted. He came to india did photoop and started dokhlam and now incursions in ladakh. 

[sandeep]

On 9/15/2020 at 1:19 PM, gattaca said:

Really hope he is ousted. He cant be trusted. He came to india did photoop and started dokhlam and now incursions in ladakh. 

They spent the last 10-15 years spending billions on modernizing their army. Last 5-7 years, Xi initiated a major house-cleaning of the top leadership of the PLA, because the top generals of the PLA were also creating their own power silos.  All of that is reasonably sorted, and now the PLA is firmly under the heels of the CCP - their motto clearly states that the PLA is the army of CCP, not the chinese people.  

 

Next step is to be openly belligerent and deploy its economic clout and military strength co-ercively to announce China's "arrival" on the world stage as a global power.  Doklam in 2017, and Ladakh today, these are probes.  I would expect considerably more serious friction and encroachment in Arunachal Pradesh - PLA advantages in logistics, equipment, infrastracture, are even more lopsided in those sectors.  

[gattaca]

32 minutes ago, sandeep said:

They spent the last 10-15 years spending billions on modernizing their army. Last 5-7 years, Xi initiated a major house-cleaning of the top leadership of the PLA, because the top generals of the PLA were also creating their own power silos.  All of that is reasonably sorted, and now the PLA is firmly under the heels of the CCP - their motto clearly states that the PLA is the army of CCP, not the chinese people.  

 

Next step is to be openly belligerent and deploy its economic clout and military strength co-ercively to announce China's "arrival" on the world stage as a global power.  Doklam in 2017, and Ladakh today, these are probes.  I would expect considerably more serious friction and encroachment in Arunachal Pradesh - PLA advantages in logistics, equipment, infrastracture, are even more lopsided in those sectors.  

What do you feel is the reason for china to push India ? I saw Gaurav Arya's reasoning of XI's chair is in danger so he caused this distraction.  But there more to it. Doklam and now ladakh they have Aksai chin it should be in anyway obstruct their trading routes. Is it jus making India listen to their demands ? 

[sandeep]

5 hours ago, gattaca said:

What do you feel is the reason for china to push India ?

see the first post in this thread - here, I'll just paste it...

 

  

On 8/10/2017 at 1:59 PM, sandeep said:

1.   India and China have a long unresolved border 'dispute'.   CCP recognizes that India's decades of enforced 'austerity measures on its armed forces have ended, and now its finally moving forward on shoring up its woefully inadequate border defense infrastructure - its still got a ways to go, but its much easier for the PLA to have success against India's border defense today, rather than 5 years from now. 

 

2.  After a few decades of supercharged economic growth, the Chinese economy is in a major slowdown for the last few years, and a massive infrastructure building spree and stimulus at home, and building out the new silk road are not enough, what better than an external conflict to head off any sort of build up of resentment of the 'people' against the CCP?  

 

3.  Chinese hardliners are ready to more openly press their case that its now China's 'time' to re-assume its position as one of the world powers.   Students of history will recognize the "splendid little war" - the Spanish American ware of 1898 - where the US kicked the Spaniards out of Cuba, and took over Guam and Philippines - as the announcement of the US as a player on the world scene.  A repeat of a 1962 beat-down of India along the vast under-defended border will serve a similar cause nicely for China.

 

4.  The 'Bhutan' gambit serves the Chinese by muddying up the waters of the conflict just enough, so that third parties who don't really want to speak up against China, have some sort of a reason to justify staying "neutral".   If the Chinese had attempted to change the facts on the ground by building roads in territory that was directly in dispute between India and China - they would counter a lot more disapproval and resistence on the international stage - perhaps even at the UN inspite of their permanent seat on the Security Council.  

 

5.   I also don't think its a co-incidence that North Korea has escalated things with its missile tests - Recall the fact that China first attacked India right at the time when the entire world was focused on the Cuban Missile crisis between the US and the Soviets.   Kim Jong's government cannot afford to make such major moves without the tacit approval of the Chinese - they won't survive even a month without the direct material support to DPRK by China.  

 

All of this makes me believe that the Chinese are definitely going to engage - and not just in the Doklam region - they have a lot of options and low-hanging fruit all along the Indo-Chinese frontier.  A lot of places where the ground and geography would be in their favor.   

 

 

[mishra]

India rejects Chinese claim that LAC Is based on perception of 1959 map presented by Enlai to Nehuru on Nov 7.

 

Now, We need to hear famous 1962 narrative (fake imo) about statement projected by Chinks from Xi Ping Ping :  If Indian want war, so be it.

[sandeep]

This is the beginning move of the negotiations to finally settle the LAC into mutually acceptable borders.  After decades, the CCP has finally decided to start serious talks on it.  Because they calculate, and rightly so, that their advantages in terms of global power, logistics on the ground - roads etc, are either at or close to the maximum relative advantage with respect to India.  

 

An aspiring superpower cannot really afford to have thousands of miles of "unconfirmed" or disputed borders.  Question is, how strong can India be in this process, which is likely to take years.  Can we sustain deployment costs? Do we have the capacity to tolerate open-ended 'mobilization' with actual risks of potential escalation?  Time, and pressure, both tend to favor the adversary with deeper pockets, after all.

[mishra]

Wait for America going to polls or Wait till Biden wins it. 
 

I still feel, these are two key dates fir Chinese attack.In best case scenario , Chinese will wait Till Bidens couple of years in office to tighten some loose  ends

Edited September 30, 2020 by mishra

[mishra]

Modi and Ping will be doing videoconferencing in November as part of BRIC summit

[sandeep]

Started this thread in 2017, and predicted armed confrontation with the CCP.  

 

I'm starting to develop suspicions that the Ukraine "crisis" initiated by Russia is a similarly designed plan, in concert with the CCP.  Given the geographic proximity to Europe, the idea is to suck in NATO and the US into making major on-ground commitments, and then ultimately Putin may back off at least from the threat of invading Ukraine, in exchange for legitimizing Russian ownership of Crimea and few other carrots.  What this does for the CCP, is it will open a window in the short term to potentially attack India along the LAC at a few tactically convenient points, grab some major land, put on a show of the "new modern PLA", put up a win for the world, and public at home to see.   If CCP can initiate conflict, intimidate and 'defeat' a nuclear power, it will solidify its 'world power' status, and it may also force Taiwan into eventual compliance.  

 

There are a lot of domestic pressures building up on the CCP at home - with the economy, with the african swine flue, the upcoming economic turbulence, and inevitable and inexorable march to "supply chain" relocation.  They are going to find a "splendid little war" with India too tempting not too gamble on it.  

 

It is on India to prepare for this eventuality, and hopefully signal enough public preparation that gives the CCP and PLA pause.  

 

War is coming.  

Edited January 24, 2022 by sandeep

[Vijy]

1 hour ago, sandeep said:

Started this thread in 2017, and predicted armed confrontation with the CCP.  

 

I'm starting to develop suspicions that the Ukraine "crisis" initiated by Russia is a similarly designed plan, in concert with the CCP.  Given the geographic proximity to Europe, the idea is to suck in NATO and the US into making major on-ground commitments, and then ultimately Putin may back off at least from the threat of invading Ukraine, in exchange for legitimizing Russian ownership of Crimea and few other carrots.  What this does for the CCP, is it will open a window in the short term to potentially attack India along the LAC at a few tactically convenient points, grab some major land, put on a show of the "new modern PLA", put up a win for the world, and public at home to see.   If CCP can initiate conflict, intimidate and 'defeat' a nuclear power, it will solidify its 'world power' status, and it may also force Taiwan into eventual compliance.  

 

There are a lot of domestic pressures building up on the CCP at home - with the economy, with the african swine flue, the upcoming economic turbulence, and inevitable and inexorable march to "supply chain" relocation.  They are going to find a "splendid little war" with India too tempting not too gamble on it.  

 

It is on India to prepare for this eventuality, and hopefully signal enough public preparation that gives the CCP and PLA pause.  

 

War is coming.  

I quite agree - this would greatly cement CCP's standing as a "world paper" with the dual effect of making Ind weak in comparison. I expect to see some ominous turbulence soon

[sandeep]

2 hours ago, MultiB48 said:

Like the Pakistani got hyped up over Islam to fight against commie usser, now our liberals want to fight against dictators xi and Putin .I hope you get something out of it in case Uncle Sam manages to topple them,because last time they toppled ussr, Pak and afg got the Taliban while USA got to plunder Russia.

 

Do you even have any idea what "liberal" means? Throwing around words that you don't quite understand is counterproductive to your own 'argument'.   Which I'm not at all sure you actually have one.

 

 

[rising]

3 hours ago, sandeep said:

Started this thread in 2017, and predicted armed confrontation with the CCP.  

 

I'm starting to develop suspicions that the Ukraine "crisis" initiated by Russia is a similarly designed plan, in concert with the CCP.  Given the geographic proximity to Europe, the idea is to suck in NATO and the US into making major on-ground commitments, and then ultimately Putin may back off at least from the threat of invading Ukraine, in exchange for legitimizing Russian ownership of Crimea and few other carrots.  What this does for the CCP, is it will open a window in the short term to potentially attack India along the LAC at a few tactically convenient points, grab some major land, put on a show of the "new modern PLA", put up a win for the world, and public at home to see.   If CCP can initiate conflict, intimidate and 'defeat' a nuclear power, it will solidify its 'world power' status, and it may also force Taiwan into eventual compliance.  

 

There are a lot of domestic pressures building up on the CCP at home - with the economy, with the african swine flue, the upcoming economic turbulence, and inevitable and inexorable march to "supply chain" relocation.  They are going to find a "splendid little war" with India too tempting not too gamble on it.  

 

It is on India to prepare for this eventuality, and hopefully signal enough public preparation that gives the CCP and PLA pause.  

 

War is coming.  

There is no connection between China and Russia and this Ukraine- Russia is ongoing conflict which escalated as Ukraine is trying to join NATO and Russia doesn't want Ukraine to join NATO and NATO to stick with 1997 agreement . If you Ukraine joins NATO  it will get weaponry and support from NATO. Which increase conflict as  If you remember Crimea which is under Russia control but claimed by Ukraine  

 

If there war it would be greatly help to China as I suspect western countries will sanction Russia and Russia will be depended on China and western countries will probably be bad to India in long-term as India needs to have strong Russia to counter China. If this turn in full blown war I think major beneficiary would be China with Russia becoming insignificant 

[mishra]

2 hours ago, rising said:

There is no connection between China and Russia and this Ukraine- Russia is ongoing conflict which escalated as Ukraine is trying to join NATO and Russia doesn't want Ukraine to join NATO and NATO to stick with 1997 agreement . If you Ukraine joins NATO  it will get weaponry and support from NATO. Which increase conflict as  If you remember Crimea which is under Russia control but claimed by Ukraine  

 

If there war it would be greatly help to China as I suspect western countries will sanction Russia and Russia will be depended on China and western countries will probably be bad to India in long-term as India needs to have strong Russia to counter China. If this turn in full blown war I think major beneficiary would be China with Russia becoming insignificant 

There won’t be any war. Just posturing. Russia will take some part of Ukraine. When you open the map you will see which parts of Unkraine give them Security to access Black Sea and impotance of Black Sea access. They will fight to ensure their Port Assets in BLack sea remain secure. West knows what is endgame. Russia won’t give up. Ukraine is not in NATO/EU single currency  because NATO /EU fears a invasion from Russia. They will join only when Crimea issue is resolve

Edited January 24, 2022 by mishra

[diga]

We may not have a full fledged war like the earlier times... Its mostly small skirmishes where one gives up vantage positions or some small land.

 

Moreover China is full on war with the whole world with corona virus.