NZ v India washout.

[Sean Bradley]

I think we will still have a game, a 20 over each minimum, though i am hoping for a full game with a delay of an hour or so. 

[Forward Defence]

Anybody in Nottingham right now? Is it raining at the moment?

[The Dark Horse]

https://twitter.com/mohanstatsman/status/1139018737917530113?s=19

Edited June 13, 2019 by The Dark Horse

[G_B_]

win toss and bowl.....(if game does go ahead)

[goose]

Anyone think they should have adopted the IPL style eliminator between 3rd and 4th place?

[Austin 3:!6]

Fantastic work @poi

 

You should post more

[New guy]

6 hours ago, poi said:

I have started simulating matches to see chances for each team's Semifinal probabilities. Note that there are way too many matches still to be played, so I had to cut down the number of simulations to something manageable. So, I have basically assumed that Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka won't be beating any other teams (except themselves if they have remaining matches). I have also not taken into account future rain-abandoned matches. If things change, future simulations will account for all past results.

So, here is where we stand right now (as of Aus vs Pak) ... probabilities after running 32,768 win-loss simulations. Let me know if this has been useful or utter waste of time. I've very much enjoyed doing this as it statistically gives a better view of Semifinal matches.

---

If India win tomorrow, here will be the outlook:

----

If NewZealand win tomorrow, here will be the outlook:

---

Since this is England, how about the outlook if the NZ vs IND match is abandoned:

After tomorrow's Ind-v-NewZealand match, I will simulate future scenarios.

Basically, South Africa is pretty much eliminated. Pakistan's outlook is also pretty bad as they would be fighting against WestIndies and the top teams (India, Australia, England, and NewZealand). NewZealand's position isn't as good as their current records, because their schedule is back-heavy as they've beaten weaker teams so far.

Pak has already played and defeated England. It's Afghanistan they will be playing 

[philcric]

3 hours ago, goose said:

Anyone think they should have adopted the IPL style eliminator between 3rd and 4th place?

 

That was the first thing I thought of when they announced this format.

 

Top 4 teams will play the semis, but it's even better to have an incentive for teams to finish in the top 2. Makes the points table more relevant and a bit more exciting.

 

 

[Asim]

I think both teams should not mind in-case its a wash out, since both are unbeaten and will remain so... both are anyways confirmed semi-finalists...

[Stan AF]

Nonsense. NZ can lose to Australia west Indies and England on the trot. Nothing is guaranteed.

[Khota]

7 hours ago, sourab10forever said:

How is it good for India?

NZ would happily take the one point. We might end up at 2nd position because of this and have to the play the 3rd team (likely Australia) in the SF instead of finishing atop and playing 4th placers(NZ or WI). Esp given England have lost to Pakistan, it is a great chance for us finishing at the top of the table.

I will take one point. How are you so confident that India will not end up with a loss? NZ just abused India few weeks back.

[Khota]

9 hours ago, poi said:

I have started simulating matches to see chances for each team's Semifinal probabilities. Note that there are way too many matches still to be played, so I had to cut down the number of simulations to something manageable. So, I have basically assumed that Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka won't be beating any other teams (except themselves if they have remaining matches). I have also not taken into account future rain-abandoned matches. If things change, future simulations will account for all past results.

So, here is where we stand right now (as of Aus vs Pak) ... probabilities after running 32,768 win-loss simulations. Let me know if this has been useful or utter waste of time. I've very much enjoyed doing this as it statistically gives a better view of Semifinal matches.

---

If India win tomorrow, here will be the outlook:

----

If NewZealand win tomorrow, here will be the outlook:

---

Since this is England, how about the outlook if the NZ vs IND match is abandoned:

After tomorrow's Ind-v-NewZealand match, I will simulate future scenarios.

Basically, South Africa is pretty much eliminated. Pakistan's outlook is also pretty bad as they would be fighting against WestIndies and the top teams (India, Australia, England, and NewZealand). NewZealand's position isn't as good as their current records, because their schedule is back-heavy as they've beaten weaker teams so far.

Our resident stat expert. Great job.

[Vilander]

11 hours ago, poi said:

I have started simulating matches to see chances for each team's Semifinal probabilities. Note that there are way too many matches still to be played, so I had to cut down the number of simulations to something manageable. So, I have basically assumed that Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka won't be beating any other teams (except themselves if they have remaining matches). I have also not taken into account future rain-abandoned matches. If things change, future simulations will account for all past results.

So, here is where we stand right now (as of Aus vs Pak) ... probabilities after running 32,768 win-loss simulations. Let me know if this has been useful or utter waste of time. I've very much enjoyed doing this as it statistically gives a better view of Semifinal matches.

---

If India win tomorrow, here will be the outlook:

----

If NewZealand win tomorrow, here will be the outlook:

---

Since this is England, how about the outlook if the NZ vs IND match is abandoned:

After tomorrow's Ind-v-NewZealand match, I will simulate future scenarios.

Basically, South Africa is pretty much eliminated. Pakistan's outlook is also pretty bad as they would be fighting against WestIndies and the top teams (India, Australia, England, and NewZealand). NewZealand's position isn't as good as their current records, because their schedule is back-heavy as they've beaten weaker teams so far.

great post. The poster has 1 post. wow. 

[jf1gp_1]

Given the condition 1 point against NZ is fine. At the start of world cup I would have taken 5 point heading into pak match. 

[nitinbwj]

19 minutes ago, jf1gp_1 said:

Given the condition 1 point against NZ is fine. At the start of world cup I would have taken 5 point heading into pak match. 

Had we lost against Aus,this poor would have hurt

[nitinbwj]

NZ is way overrated. Take our conditions and boulr and you can smack a 350 anytime.

[jf1gp_1]

1 hour ago, nitinbwj said:

NZ is way overrated. Take our conditions and boulr and you can smack a 350 anytime.

Most team have 1 key bowler around whom entire bowling lineups are built. We are lucky we have 1 each pacer and spinner 

[Pratik77]

[Haarkarjeetgaye]

14 hours ago, poi said:

I have started simulating matches to see chances for each team's Semifinal probabilities. Note that there are way too many matches still to be played, so I had to cut down the number of simulations to something manageable. So, I have basically assumed that Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka won't be beating any other teams (except themselves if they have remaining matches). I have also not taken into account future rain-abandoned matches. If things change, future simulations will account for all past results.

So, here is where we stand right now (as of Aus vs Pak) ... probabilities after running 32,768 win-loss simulations. Let me know if this has been useful or utter waste of time. I've very much enjoyed doing this as it statistically gives a better view of Semifinal matches.

---

If India win tomorrow, here will be the outlook:

----

If NewZealand win tomorrow, here will be the outlook:

---

Since this is England, how about the outlook if the NZ vs IND match is abandoned:

After tomorrow's Ind-v-NewZealand match, I will simulate future scenarios.

Basically, South Africa is pretty much eliminated. Pakistan's outlook is also pretty bad as they would be fighting against WestIndies and the top teams (India, Australia, England, and NewZealand). NewZealand's position isn't as good as their current records, because their schedule is back-heavy as they've beaten weaker teams so far.

Awesome work. Does this factor washouts. Can be done based on weather forecast or pc of washouts till now.

[poi]

15 minutes ago, Haarkarjeetgaye said:

Awesome work. Does this factor washouts. Can be done based on weather forecast or pc of washouts till now.

I might incorporate % of washout when fewer matches are left. If I do it now, the simulations will balloon from 30,000 scenarios to possibly tens of millions or even billions.