Rise of Yogi

[Yoda-esque]

From the reports i am getting is major chunk of mayawati voter non minority has voted in favour of bjp(jatav,valmiki etc) amongst jats the votes have been split,womens have voted for bjp,in jats the rld candidate getting votes but sp candidate not that much,acc. To election commission data even muslim dominated seats half of them had lesser voting compared to last time,one intersting thing people forgetting is 
Even in 17 mayawati's vote share was 22% of which majority is jatav and other obc communities plus muslims ,so wont be surprised this election it reduces further as both communities vote tactically

Where are you getting these reports from?

[someone]

On 2/15/2022 at 5:14 AM, mishra said:

Yogi is done. Looks like UP is going for hung assembly. Caste calculations is allways high in UP elections and Brahmin castes seems to feel that they were targeted (or not protected/treated unfairly) under Yogi. Its not farmers, but BJP’s votebank Brahmins whi arr unhappy with Yogi as they think Rajnath Singh got his say during Yogi tenure and he needs to be shown mirror. Before BJPites start jump on they needs to understand grievance, whether it was Kamlesh Tewari or Dubey or even my local Panditji, a lot of them were either shot by Police or by unknown/known assailants while not a single UP goon with surname “Singh” in UP was under any threat. For example a local known Bahubali MLA Dhanajay Singh was inaugurating/playing cricket tournament and Raja Bhaiya was giving interviews with all cases quashed against him.

 

Yogi has put knowingly or unknowingly, killed a lot of Brahmin bahubalis (who community saw as their protector or used to go with grievances) while Every other caste one has survived without giving that community anything in return. Sabaka Saath Sabaka Vikas model schemes kike gas, house , toilets weren’t needed or reached to Brahmins 
Simply put, Brahmin are against Yogi but not against BJP. So some are not going to vote. That may proove key in election outcome.

 

Correct. May BJP voters always try to be over-smart. They may not have any real problems with BJP or may even dislike SP, yet don't want a full majority Yogi government. A simple majority so their respective caste leaders can bully and get their larger share. They don't want powerful Yogi government, which can go after bahubalis and disturb the status quo.

 

SP can rightly sneak-in, and wouldn't surprise me at all.

 

[someone]

11 hours ago, vayuu1 said:

From the reports i am getting is major chunk of mayawati voter non minority has voted in favour of bjp(jatav,valmiki etc) amongst jats the votes have been split,womens have voted for bjp,in jats the rld candidate getting votes but sp candidate not that much,acc. To election commission data even muslim dominated seats half of them had lesser voting compared to last time,one intersting thing people forgetting is 

Even in 17 mayawati's vote share was 22% of which majority is jatav and other obc communities plus muslims ,so wont be surprised this election it reduces further as both communities vote tactically

 

The assumption is if 2019 is correct where BSP votes doesn't transfer to SP well. In that case, they will switch from BSP for the dominant national party, which currently is BJP instead of Congress.

 

But there are other factors which hurts BJP chances including it's own voters complacency and over-smartness.

[someone]

11 hours ago, vayuu1 said:

Tbh i always believe in election its the silent voter that is the game changer and not the vocal one

 

That's the woman voters for me. They are not captured well in the pre-polls analysis. And post-polls analysis  over recent elections has shown discrepancies between men and women voter choices.

 

Here, larger women turnout benefits BJP greatly...

[vayuu1]

5 minutes ago, someone said:

 

The assumption is if 2019 is correct where BSP votes doesn't transfer to SP well. In that case, they will switch from BSP for the dominant national party, which currently is BJP instead of Congress.

 

But there are other factors which hurts BJP chances including it's own voters complacency and over-smartness.

Dont think its complacency or over smartness ,if you look carefully at the data from.ec ,the polling has also been less at muslim.centres as well .

[vayuu1]

7 minutes ago, someone said:

 

The assumption is if 2019 is correct where BSP votes doesn't transfer to SP well. In that case, they will switch from BSP for the dominant national party, which currently is BJP instead of Congress.

 

But there are other factors which hurts BJP chances including it's own voters complacency and over-smartness.

Its not assumption just based on 19 elections some of the reports are that bsp candidates have themself asked to vote for bjp 

[vayuu1]

2 hours ago, Yoda-esque said:

11 hours ago, vayuu1 said:

From the reports i am getting is major chunk of mayawati voter non minority has voted in favour of bjp(jatav,valmiki etc) amongst jats the votes have been split,womens have voted for bjp,in jats the rld candidate getting votes but sp candidate not that much,acc. To election commission data even muslim dominated seats half of them had lesser voting compared to last time,one intersting thing people forgetting is 
Even in 17 mayawati's vote share was 22% of which majority is jatav and other obc communities plus muslims ,so wont be surprised this election it reduces further as both communities vote tactically

Where are you getting these reports from?

Been talking to people ,as i told u my work place is in western up

[vayuu1]

For eg yogesh dhama the baghpat candidate fielded by bjp is a jat ,On the other hand rld has fielded whom you will know by that,the second phase was bound to be tough ,even in peak modi wave in 17,19 sp managed 17 out of 47 and 7 out of 15 seats it got in vs and ls election respectively,of 113 seats of first two phase bjp i feel will get 60-65seats (first phase 35-38 and second phase 25-27 seats) which is good considering this was bjp supposdly toughest two phases

Edited February 16, 2022 by vayuu1

[someone]

On 2/13/2022 at 1:51 PM, Trichromatic said:

It's obvious that Yogi was made the remark with religious undertone that if you don't vote for BJP, UP will end up like J&K, Kerala and WB where muslims are percieved to be dominant and hindus are considered meek. 

 

While the remark was insulting and degratory, it had nothing to do actual development and welfare discussion of the state. It was a fear mongering exercise and nothing else. He is basically saying that you need to vote BJP to keep Muslims in check.

 

Otherwise UP will actually try to achieve what Kerala has achieved so far in many aspects. Yogi clearly didn't try claim that UP is better in terms of development and refuting Yogi's claim is pointless exercise. Yogi is not a dumb guy not to know WB and Kerala are more developed states than Kerala.

 

You seek clarity about BJP and Yogi, yet ignore the other parties and vote-banks. Much like MSM, where is the due-diligence on the so called LW? Muslims vote en-mass, for anything but development. And now, it includes voting for Shiv Sena.

 

There are faults for BJP, yet they rightfully know that the elections are won on turnouts. Turnout often needs emotional touch and connect, which both sides play, and so Yogi will play their identity policies. Yet unlike SP, there are pro-reasons to vote for BJP for their good work in UP, and that also includes their non-voters. For example Muslims who got their fair and equal share of houses, subsidies, and welfare.

[mishra]

12 hours ago, someone said:

 

Correct. May BJP voters always try to be over-smart. They may not have any real problems with BJP or may even dislike SP, yet don't want a full majority Yogi government. A simple majority so their respective caste leaders can bully and get their larger share. They don't want powerful Yogi government, which can go after bahubalis and disturb the status quo.

 

SP can rightly sneak-in, and wouldn't surprise me at all.

 

Yogi should have been smarter then that . He went and effectively killed allmost every bahubali of a particular caste (police or inter gang rivalry) . Its all about optics. How such a act is seen.

 

Please be aware that Brahmins almost every time do NOT qualify for any state handout or freebies or schemes. They vote BJP on principle, although not most them are highly educated. 
 

Feeling is, they have been singled out. Most of those who were killed were just reputed people( only some were bahubalis) , Not even Muslim Bahubalis have lost any influence. Why? Only Yogi can tell.

Edited February 17, 2022 by mishra

[ravishingravi]

Talking about Kerala model, only communists can come up with something like this 

 

 

[mishra]

One has to understand that piublic can be fooled to choose Morarji Desai over Indira ji( Indiraji achievements right before (3-4 years of her rule) emergency 

1. Pokharan

2. Bangladesh

3. Kashmir back to political fold

4. Sikkim and North Eastern States

5. Food sufficiency 

 

Her only mistake: She was seen doing whatever she wished (just like Yogi). Setback in UP elections may be blessing in disguise for BJP.

 

[vayuu1]

5 hours ago, mishra said:

One has to understand that piublic can be fooled to choose Morarji Desai over Indira ji( Indiraji achievements right before (3-4 years of her rule) emergency 

1. Pokharan

2. Bangladesh

3. Kashmir back to political fold

4. Sikkim and North Eastern States

5. Food sufficiency 

 

Her only mistake: She was seen doing whatever she wished (just like Yogi). Setback in UP elections may be blessing in disguise for BJP.

 

Yogi is winning this.

[mishra]

3 hours ago, vayuu1 said:

Yogi is winning this.

Brahmins make 12% of UP population. As I said earlier, they are core BJP voters but for first time , they do not seem to be happy with BJP. I doubt that they will vote as a bloc against BJP but some may decide abstain while some may still vote BJP and in rare situation they may vote candidate outside BJP. If BJP can still not loose election in UP, then Modi is getting all Lok Sabha Seats in next elections

[vayuu1]

1 hour ago, mishra said:

Brahmins make 12% of UP population. As I said earlier, they are core BJP voters but for first time , they do not seem to be happy with BJP. I doubt that they will vote as a bloc against BJP but some may decide abstain while some may still vote BJP and in rare situation they may vote candidate outside BJP. If BJP can still not loose election in UP, then Modi is getting all Lok Sabha Seats in next elections

Bhai seedhi si baat hai u talk about 12% ,i am talking about 12% plus labharthi plus,non jatav plus obc plus jatav as well,bjp jeetegi dekh lena

[vayuu1]

And main fir keh raha hu election kabhi bhi core voter nhi jeetatay humesha silent and neutral voter jeetate hai

Edited February 22, 2022 by vayuu1

[someone]

1 hour ago, mishra said:

Brahmins make 12% of UP population. As I said earlier, they are core BJP voters but for first time , they do not seem to be happy with BJP. I doubt that they will vote as a bloc against BJP but some may decide abstain while some may still vote BJP and in rare situation they may vote candidate outside BJP. If BJP can still not loose election in UP, then Modi is getting all Lok Sabha Seats in next elections

 

I think BJP realizes that UC are fickle, and are focusing on different communities as well. It will be interesting on how many Dalits BSP voters waste votes for their non-existent leader, or move to 2nd choice SP or BJP? I tend to believe BJP is more likely their 2nd choice?

 

Similarly, how will the women vote? If law & order is crucial for them, that is advantage for BJP. But there are other issues against including inflation.

 

The turnout has been low, that means caste and identity voters are greater proportion and so advantage to SP?

[vayuu1]

9 hours ago, someone said:

 

I think BJP realizes that UC are fickle, and are focusing on different communities as well. It will be interesting on how many Dalits BSP voters waste votes for their non-existent leader, or move to 2nd choice SP or BJP? I tend to believe BJP is more likely their 2nd choice?

 

Similarly, how will the women vote? If law & order is crucial for them, that is advantage for BJP. But there are other issues against including inflation.

 

The turnout has been low, that means caste and identity voters are greater proportion and so advantage to SP?

Vote percentage is almost similar ,not too less,u are also forgetting about one thing the mayavati factor,his voter

[mishra]

23 hours ago, someone said:

 

I think BJP realizes that UC are fickle, and are focusing on different communities as well. It will be interesting on how many Dalits BSP voters waste votes for their non-existent leader, or move to 2nd choice SP or BJP? I tend to believe BJP is more likely their 2nd choice?

 

Similarly, how will the women vote? If law & order is crucial for them, that is advantage for BJP. But there are other issues against including inflation.

 

The turnout has been low, that means caste and identity voters are greater proportion and so advantage to SP?

BSP voter won’t  vote SP and core SP voters wont vote BSP. BSP voters may vote BJP.

 

After failing To get BSP votes last election,  what Akhilesh is doing , is to pull BJP voters.

 

Lets just hope that Yogi has done enough to get majority. His shushashan (administration) itself is being termed as Buldozer Raaj

[ravishingravi]

 

 

He will be PM at some point. Destiny's child will do final rituals to make it civilizational state.