Escalation at India-China border

[Manny_Pacquiao]

19 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

 

uummmm "everything you own"?

 

Our imports from China are around $70 billion. This is 2.5% of GDP.

 

Before I get into details. Do you constitute this 2.5% of GDP  "everything you own" as being from China?

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not looking at this from an economist's perspective, i'm speaking from the point of view of the average consumer.

 

Take a look at all your discretionary (non-essential) goods. Can you reconcile your boycott with brand loyalty to chinese-made discretionary goods? I don't think you can.

Edited June 18, 2020 by Manny_Pacquiao

[sandeep]

8 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

and if I am being rational for the typical Indian.

 

Food is mostly grown locally.  The cars you own are mostly build in India. Yes some parts are probably imported from China,, but those form a relatively small % of the car. The clothes you wear are mostly made in India with Indian cotton. Cement and Steel mostly we meet our requirements locally. So very likely the house you have has very limited Chinese hand.

 

What we import from China is chemicals (used in pharma and other products) so the medicines you buy probably have some chinese indirect hand and consumer electronics. Other minor sector are toys etc. 

A 'full' boycott is not in our interest though. Modern manufacturing depends on parts - a boycott would hurt a lot of local manufacturing, potentially be counter-productive.  

 

This is complex stuff, can't be boiled down to knee-jerk reactions.  Although I think a consumer led boycott 'movement' is useful.

[Manny_Pacquiao]

9 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

and if I am being rational for the typical Indian.

 

What we import from China is chemicals (used in pharma and other products) so the medicines you buy probably have some chinese indirect hand and consumer electronics. Other minor sector are toys etc. 

The demand for which will grow as india becomes wealthier.

 

You need indian companies to compete on a strictly 'made in india' policy. Modi and the RSS always speak about this, but we're not seeing much movement here.

[G_B_]

see whichever way you look at it, 70 billion is no where near any sort of dependency to claim that everything you own is chinese. You dont need to be an economist for that. Its just basic common sense.

 

Re the richness etc. In the UK most clothes are now made in Bangladesh  Vietnam or Mynamar. So in a decades time a lot of consumer goods are going to be made in ASEAN countries. China is already becoming more expensive. Its not just a question of manufacturing in India etc. Eventually a lot of firms will decide that ASEAN countries (with whom India has an FTA) is where they want to set up base. Some parts might come from china but a smaller part of the value chain will be located there.

 

Similarly, instead of having high end products from China we can import them from South Korea and Japan. Hyundai for example has manufacturing operations in India for its cars and a vast majority of its parts (and steel etc) some from South Korea. 

 

The assumption here is that what we cant get from china we will make ourselves. The might be an ultimate aim, but there are other countries in the world. Just saying...

 

This whole we cannot avoid China argument does not present the true picture.

 

 

What GoI needs to do first and foremost is to say anything coming from China has heavy tariffs attached to it. Automatically importers will search in other places. 

 

 

[Ankit_sharma03]

12 minutes ago, sandeep said:

A 'full' boycott is not in our interest though. Modern manufacturing depends on parts - a boycott would hurt a lot of local manufacturing, potentially be counter-productive.  

 

This is complex stuff, can't be boiled down to knee-jerk reactions.  Although I think a consumer led boycott 'movement' is useful.

 

[sandeep]

 

 

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/satellite-images-show-positions-surrounding-deadly-china-india-clash/

 

 

 

 

Pictures speak a thousand words.  Indian army used to have 'control' up to Finger 4 and 5 earlier.  Now Finger 4 and 5 are under a thousand Chinese boots, with 100+ permanent structures.  This has already happened.  And not overnight.  

 

What the Chinese are doing, is hardening the Line of Actual Control, and attempting to solidify their control on strategic locations - probably ahead of an eventual 'settlement'.  The Indian army, has spectacularly failed to prevent this at Pangong.  This is unambiguous.  

 

If the Indian army allows the PLA to replicate its Pangong success at Galwan, that would mean that the road to DSDBO would forever be under Chinese boots.  

 

The fact that the Indian statements are focused on "returning to pre-June Status quo" implies that India has already de facto conceded and accepted Chinese encroachment and permanent control of Finger 4 at Pangong.  

 

How and why this was allowed to happen, I do not know.  If it is unacceptable that the Chinese control the ridgeline at Galwan, does Finger 4 at Pangong not hold similar strategic significance?  Maybe it doesn't, Let's hope it doesn't.  

 

It is imperative that the Indian army ramps up its border patrolling and surveillance capability, yesterday.  Where else have the Chinese 'pulled a Pangong'? Or are planning to? 

Edited June 18, 2020 by sandeep

[sandeep]

4 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

Its just basic common sense.

Manny likes to argue for the sake of - he's just flame-throwing to provoke and do "timepass".  Don't bother responding to his silliness with logic.  He's just sitting there laughing at you.

[Ankit_sharma03]

 

 

 

[maniac]

Am I missing anything here? People are only looking at it 1 way, it’s easy to boycott Chinese goods and for arguments sake let’s say importers find a different channel for their materials but  what about our goods that are exported to China? 
 

Are those goods so necessary that China cannot do the same to us?

 

It is not that black and white.

 

Yes,we can up our regulation to see China doesn’t aggressively penetrate our markets and institutions but total boycott is a hasty step.

Edited June 18, 2020 by maniac

[Sandeep99]

Chinese have started to rag India on both fronts now. Expect Pakistan also to slowly ramp up firing from western front to aid their masters. Indian army needs to show capability swiftly and effectively. I'm not speaking about the war but a strategy to counter the Chinese.

[coffee_rules]

Dayum! Why is this vile woman allowed to report from border areas. She can clearly give coded messages to Chinese. 

 

[FischerTal]

1 hour ago, sandeep said:

 

 

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/satellite-images-show-positions-surrounding-deadly-china-india-clash/

 

 

 

 

Pictures speak a thousand words.  Indian army used to have 'control' up to Finger 4 and 5 earlier.  Now Finger 4 and 5 are under a thousand Chinese boots, with 100+ permanent structures.  This has already happened.  And not overnight.  

 

What the Chinese are doing, is hardening the Line of Actual Control, and attempting to solidify their control on strategic locations - probably ahead of an eventual 'settlement'.  The Indian army, has spectacularly failed to prevent this at Pangong.  This is unambiguous.  

 

If the Indian army allows the PLA to replicate its Pangong success at Galwan, that would mean that the road to DSDBO would forever be under Chinese boots.  

 

The fact that the Indian statements are focused on "returning to pre-June Status quo" implies that India has already de facto conceded and accepted Chinese encroachment and permanent control of Finger 4 at Pangong.  

 

How and why this was allowed to happen, I do not know.  If it is unacceptable that the Chinese control the ridgeline at Galwan, does Finger 4 at Pangong not hold similar strategic significance?  Maybe it doesn't, Let's hope it doesn't.  

 

It is imperative that the Indian army ramps up its border patrolling and surveillance capability, yesterday.  Where else have the Chinese 'pulled a Pangong'? Or are planning to? 

We knew what was happening at pangong and still no action was taken. We allowed them to build up structures in less than a months time. This was a capitulation by the government. Unless we plan to go to war(highly unlikely), we have lost Finger 5-8 forever. The only way IA can patrol upto finger 8 now is if we patrol from up North, but the terrain is so harsh. My guess is, IA plans to build our own set of structures up North, but that’s very difficult to maintain 

Edited June 18, 2020 by FischerTal

[sandeep]

29 minutes ago, FischerTal said:

We allowed them to build up structures in less than a months time. This was a capitulation by the government.

Yes, govt is at fault.  What was the army doing though? Why such a belated reaction and recognition of systematic Chinese intent.

 

Lets be honest - our army is as competent/incompetent as rest of govt is.  

 

The Pangong failure aside, question is can Indian army be relied upon to prevent more Pangongs.  

[Straight Drive]

2 hours ago, G_B_ said:

and if I am being rational for the typical Indian.

 

Food is mostly grown locally.  The cars you own are mostly build in India. Yes some parts are probably imported from China,, but those form a relatively small % of the car. The clothes you wear are mostly made in India with Indian cotton. Cement and Steel mostly we meet our requirements locally. So very likely the house you have has very limited Chinese hand.

 

What we import from China is chemicals (used in pharma and other products) so the medicines you buy probably have some chinese indirect hand and consumer electronics. Other minor sector are toys etc. 

India depends on China for chemicals but Chinese altered rule for chemicals and now Indian chemical manufacturers are in demand as a result of that rule implementation in China.

 

In Agri sector as you rightly mentioned we are very safe in crops as well as sea food. In fact we are major exporter of processed shrimp foods in partnership with Thailand (Avanti Feeds a listed player is in partnership with Thai firm)

 

PM recently mentioned that the chemical firma will get some benefits. That will help reduce the dependency of chemicals coming from China compared to what it was in 2010.

 

In electronics though we are far behind but the gap can be covered in some electronic segments to reduce import gradually.

Edited June 18, 2020 by Straight Drive

[G_B_]

2 hours ago, maniac said:

Am I missing anything here? People are only looking at it 1 way, it’s easy to boycott Chinese goods and for arguments sake let’s say importers find a different channel for their materials but  what about our goods that are exported to China? 
 

Are those goods so necessary that China cannot do the same to us?

 

It is not that black and white.

 

Yes,we can up our regulation to see China doesn’t aggressively penetrate our markets and institutions but total boycott is a hasty step.

we export $17 billion a year. Which is nothing...

[G_B_]

At the very least there needs to be a law for good to be well documented. Those who want to boycott will do so. 

[G_B_]

While I cannot confirm about Apple, if you are in the market for a new smartphone try to buy Samsung. Ie. there are now options.

 

For laptops etc try to buy ASUS.

 

The list for the TV is coming up. But I suspect Samsung and LG dont use many Chinese components. 

[G_B_]

So as a rule of thumb to my fellow ICFers while the likes of Samsung might be more expensive. Do try to keep this aspect in mind while making decisions. 

 

At a company and government level chemicals need to be made inhouse in India. There is no technological edge needed. These are base chemicals and we have a technically good chemical industry.

 

 

[Straight Drive]

7 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

So as a rule of thumb to my fellow ICFers while the likes of Samsung might be more expensive. Do try to keep this aspect in mind while making decisions. 

 

At a company and government level chemicals need to be made inhouse in India. There is no technological edge needed. These are base chemicals and we have a technically good chemical industry.

 

 

Aarti Industries is world leading company in Benzene.

 

UPL is a pro in insecticide and pesticides.

 

Galaxy surfactants, Vinati organics,  Godrej Industries are doing good.

 

Navin Fluorine in HFFC based used in cooling segment.

 

There is enough technological know how in base chemicals and even specialty chemicals with Indian companies of different scale. Patent rights are also there with chemical manufactures as well as life science companies. Raw material is a issue though which we need to import from China and some patented drugs. But  the overall improvement in chemical sectors has been impressive.

Edited June 18, 2020 by Straight Drive

[G_B_]

25 minutes ago, sandeep said:

Yes, govt is at fault.  What was the army doing though? Why such a belated reaction and recognition of systematic Chinese intent.

 

Lets be honest - our army is as competent/incompetent as rest of govt is.  

 

The Pangong failure aside, question is can Indian army be relied upon to prevent more Pangongs.  

They have not crossed LAC. They are upto our borders where are soldiers patrol. Not crossed them.

 

There appears to be some confusion with regards to where the LAC is. The LAC is not fixed as in the case for Pak.

 

Infact Indian soldiers crossed the LAC to reach the chinese based on the skirmish. IyerMitra on twitter has pulled out satellite images. Its been confirmed that many died after falling into the galwan river. The galvan river was blocked by the chinese inside their region of the LAC.

 

 

The chinese build up and machinery for posts is 43 km from the galwan river. If they get too close they will be victims of artillary fire (range around 20 to 40km)

 

 

 

 

So while I get that some are trying to say India lost territory. No that is not the case. There was a buffer zone between the armies. China is now in that buffer zone.