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Alam_dar

Iran removes India from Chabahar rail project collaboration

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On 7/15/2020 at 12:12 AM, Alam_dar said:

Trump administration exempted this project due to it's importance. Therefore, it was not in way of making relations  bad with US. 

 

I believe that pushing Iran in the lap of China/Pakistan does not seem to be a wise decision. 

 

Secondly, in my view this project was very important to have contact with the Afghan Government. Therefore, again it does not seem to be a wise decision from this angle. 

Lap of Pakistan what are you smoking dude. Pakistan is a bankrupt country who survives on aides . Have you seen Iranian leaving standard compare to bhikharistan. Pakistan itself sits in turkey,Arabs and Chinese lap one by one to please their masters.

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40 minutes ago, raki05 said:

Lap of Pakistan what are you smoking dude. Pakistan is a bankrupt country who survives on aides . Have you seen Iranian leaving standard compare to bhikharistan. Pakistan itself sits in turkey,Arabs and Chinese lap one by one to please their masters.

Agreed upon the lap issue. 

 

But unfortunately, it is still a reality that China will come in position of pushing Iran towards Pakistan against India.

 

Therefore, I feel that it was not a wise decision from the Indian Government. 

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1 hour ago, Alam_dar said:

Agreed upon the lap issue. 

 

But unfortunately, it is still a reality that China will come in position of pushing Iran towards Pakistan against India.

 

Therefore, I feel that it was not a wise decision from the Indian Government. 

 

Not happening. Iran is still not in a debt trap. Moreover, if Iran establishment loathes anything more than americans, it is Sunnis. The plight of Shias in Pakistan is a big issue in Iran. It is not going away. 

 

But yes, overall Chinese strategy will be to reach out to the disgruntled. 

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Honestly, the highway to kabul is complete so India can trade with Afghanistan without Pakistan.

 

Chabahar does not need any more investment from an Indian pov. 

 

The Iran deal with China is nothing more than a bluff. Its basically to reduce sanctions from the West. 

 

If the chinese do some to chabahar then it sort of makes Gwadar a bit redundant. 

 

And think about it this way. If Iran sells oil to China via Pakistan then 

 

a) The global demand and supply of oil will be skewed in favour of the buyer and thereby will reduce the price of oil. Which is good for India. I.e China will stop importing oil from saudi arabia for etc.

 

b) If Pakistan is seen to be siding with Iran then the remittance flow to Pakistan from GCC will reduce. Already there are major job losses on the horion due to coronavirus.

 

I said this a few years back. Sanctions on Iran was not in the interests of India as Iran had the capacity to add around 5-6 million barrels of supply every day. Would have kept oil (or brent crude) under 40 for a long time to come.

 

 

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1 hour ago, ravishingravi said:

Not happening. Iran is still not in a debt trap.

I feel, no matter what, but the distance between Iran and India will automatically increase due to this incident. It is unnecessary in my opinion. This may push Iran more towards Pakistan, even without dept pressure. 

 

Quote

Moreover, if Iran establishment loathes anything more than americans, it is Sunnis. The plight of Shias in Pakistan is a big issue in Iran. It is not going away. 

 

I don't know if you know the situation in Pakistan correctly or not. But let me try to make it clear to the Indian friends, so that they may not make the severe mistake in this regard. 

 

Iran/Shias don't loathes Sunnies (and absolutely not more than Americans. You could not even imagine to compare them both).  

 

This statement is an absolute mistake in my honest opinion. 

 

Iran/Shias have problems with:

(1) Ahle Hadith (who are also known as Salafies/Wahabis  .... the followers of Saudi Fiqh).  

(2) One Part of Deobandi Sunni school of thought which is extremist. 

 

But normal Shias and Sunnis are in absolutely harmony with each other, and they have no problems. 

 

While Pakistani society is:

(1) Maximum 10% Salafi/Wahabi

(2) Perhaps 20% extreme Deobandi, who don't like Shias or Iran. 

(3) Rest 50% of Pakistanis are Barailvis, who are  totally in harmony with Shias and they love Iran. According to the Research, Iran is the most favourable country in Pakistan as compared to any other Islamic country. 

(4) And then there are 10-15 % Shias, who are die hard supporters of Iran. 

 

It is basically only due to the Saudi Arab's and US influence that Pakistan and Iran never came close to each other, despite having favourable view of each other. 

 

Imran Khan is very much in love with Iran. 

 

Imran Khan view is to make a belt of Pakistan, Iran and Turkey. 

 

At moment Turkey and Iran have their own differences due to Syria. But once they iron them out, then India may have to face this block of Turkey/Iran/Pakistan too. 

 

Therefore, my  open advise to the Indian friends is this to take into account all these issue. It is never a bad policy to have good relations with the neighbouring countries (even if it is Pakistan or China) and avoid unnecessary hatred and problems. Unfortunately, the issue of Chahbahar port has become an unnecessary problem for India due to the wrong diplomacy. 

 

 

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22 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

Honestly, the highway to kabul is complete so India can trade with Afghanistan without Pakistan.

 

Chabahar does not need any more investment from an Indian pov. 

 

The Iran deal with China is nothing more than a bluff. Its basically to reduce sanctions from the West. 

 

If the chinese do some to chabahar then it sort of makes Gwadar a bit redundant. 

 

And think about it this way. If Iran sells oil to China via Pakistan then 

 

a) The global demand and supply of oil will be skewed in favour of the buyer and thereby will reduce the price of oil. Which is good for India. I.e China will stop importing oil from saudi arabia for etc.

 

b) If Pakistan is seen to be siding with Iran then the remittance flow to Pakistan from GCC will reduce. Already there are major job losses on the horion due to coronavirus.

 

I said this a few years back. Sanctions on Iran was not in the interests of India as Iran had the capacity to add around 5-6 million barrels of supply every day. Would have kept oil (or brent crude) under 40 for a long time to come.

 

 

Exactly, Its very clear. We want good relations with Iran. We have historical ties with Iran, There is a limit of our influence in global stage. We will continue to persue good relations with Iran as their deed in hours of need will never be forgotten.

 

But we do not and can not make Iran choose and persue its own future against hostile USA (hostile to Iran). They can choose to side with China. Their choice. However, As a Indian, I do not care a damn what kind of relationship they develop with their neighbours.

 

Pakistan is also sold to Saudis, Bad relations of Iran with Pakistan is down to Saudis and Sunnis. There is no India/China angle into that. And we dont care how they deal.

 

 

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The issue with iran is the baggage. Get too close and the gcc from which india gets 40 billion in remittances gets angry. Then there is usa and israel. The advantage is trade with central asia and especially Afghanistan. India has plans to build 4 major dams there to choke of Pakistan. Plus we get road n rail access to our base in Tajikistan.

 

We also cant blame Iran. Sanctions from Usa meant we stopped importing their oil and dropped them like a sack of hot potatoes. They have a right to put their interests first.

 

Ideally india needs chabahar to simply be relatively active. Just need another route to Afghanistan to keep pak occupied there. That is achieved. Beyond that i think there is no point in making it a major port.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Official statement of Indian Govt - clearly says that the forward progress on the Railway line was stuck due to Iranians.  

 

Reading between the lines, its easy to see that the Iranians were trying to get a railway line built, but didn't want to pay for it, and wanted to milk India money for it, while not offering any guaranteed access rights in the future.  

 

Projects such as these, are about quid pro quos, not freebies.  There was nothing stopping the Iranians from taking Indian money, and then going ahead with their China deal anyway.  There is also no reason to believe, that even gifting the Iranians enough money to build this railway line, would have made any difference in the overall tenor and trend of India-Iran relations.

 

The Iranian Mullah regime is not to be trusted - India can afford to wait, and have better ties with the eventual modern Iran that emerges from under the Mullahs' shadow.  

 

While desperate morons can try to spin this as some sort of Indian "failure", I see no reason to jump to such conclusions.  Not genuine ones anyway. 

 

 

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4 hours ago, G_B_ said:

Beyond that i think there is no point in making it a major port.

 

I mean if the Indian version of BRI i.e. North South 'corridor' had actual viability and profit potential, then maybe.  But reality is that the 'stans' most of which are controlled by strongmen dictators, are perfectly happy with being spokes in the Chinese BRI wheel.  And India has literally dozens, if not hundreds, shovel-ready infrastructure projects within its own borders, or within the SAARC sphere, that will deliver a far bigger strategic and financial bang for the buck, than throwing good money after the Iranian fundoos.

 

I am very happy with the steady and small-scale mari-time investments that India has made in the IOR.  And would love to see a greater focus and investment in BIMSTEC projects.  

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On 7/15/2020 at 3:43 AM, Alam_dar said:

Now in absence of India, the Chahbahar Port will get the presence of the China. There is already a talk about Chinese Naval Ships Presence there too. 

alam mian collaboration in a commercial naval port is not equal to a naval base , all countries are not like Pakistan they dont just give away their ports to the biggest bidder for military ops. 

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7 hours ago, G_B_ said:

The issue with iran is the baggage. Get too close and the gcc from which india gets 40 billion in remittances gets angry. Then there is usa and israel. The advantage is trade with central asia and especially Afghanistan. India has plans to build 4 major dams there to choke of Pakistan. Plus we get road n rail access to our base in Tajikistan.

 

We also cant blame Iran. Sanctions from Usa meant we stopped importing their oil and dropped them like a sack of hot potatoes. They have a right to put their interests first.

 

Ideally india needs chabahar to simply be relatively active. Just need another route to Afghanistan to keep pak occupied there. That is achieved. Beyond that i think there is no point in making it a major port.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Iran is a head ache any way you look at it.

Gulf countries will dislike it - we have heavy remittances and people to people contact - so no

US wont be happy and will sanction - hell no. 

 

Its a tricky slope, and Iran does not really like India or its not that its pro India in kashmir ( same as gulf). 

 

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5 hours ago, sandeep said:

I mean if the Indian version of BRI i.e. North South 'corridor' had actual viability and profit potential, then maybe.  But reality is that the 'stans' most of which are controlled by strongmen dictators, are perfectly happy with being spokes in the Chinese BRI wheel.  And India has literally dozens, if not hundreds, shovel-ready infrastructure projects within its own borders, or within the SAARC sphere, that will deliver a far bigger strategic and financial bang for the buck, than throwing good money after the Iranian fundoos.

 

I am very happy with the steady and small-scale mari-time investments that India has made in the IOR.  And would love to see a greater focus and investment in BIMSTEC projects.  

All india wanted is to keep pakistan occupied on both fronts Afghanistan and India. Ie stretch them. This meant keeping the Afghan gov and northern alliance ticking along. The Soviet war in Afghanistan created the Taliban. In the 90s those taliban fighters were transferred to Kashmir. 

 

 

 

 

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14 hours ago, G_B_ said:

The issue with iran is the baggage. Get too close and the gcc from which india gets 40 billion in remittances gets angry. Then there is usa and israel. The advantage is trade with central asia and especially Afghanistan. India has plans to build 4 major dams there to choke of Pakistan. Plus we get road n rail access to our base in Tajikistan.

These are the true facts that you stated about GCC and US.  The Mullah regime of Iran does not worth it. 

 

Nevertheless, my concern is only about this particular PROJECT, for which US and GCC had no objections, and due to it's importance US exempted it completely from the sanctions. But still this project was not completed. Even no one is blaming India completely for not buying the Iranian oil, but laziness has been shown regarding this project, and it brought negative results for India. 

 

Again, Iran does not worth, but India should have so much influence upon Iran  to stop the building of Turkey/Iran/Pakistan block (a long time dream of Pak Military and population). 

 

And what if GCC and Iran make a deal tomorrow and stop their enmities? It does not seem possible today, but India should be ready for the worst tomorrow. 

 

US is not a reliable partner. The experts in the Video (which I posted above), were all in agreement that not all is lost, and Indian Government should try it's best to revive the relationship with Iran. They even pointed out that Shia Iran may be a natural ally of US in the region and it is also possible that US and Iranian ties become better in the future. This is another scenario for which India should be ready. 

 

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12 minutes ago, Vilander said:

Why is pakistan the arse of so many blocks ?

There are some blocks due to geolocation and some due to the religion. Arabs want Pakistan to join them against Iran, China want Pakistan against India, Turkey want Pakistan on it's side (while Arabs don't like Turkey and thus Turkey is alone in the Islamic World. And the new Turkish Caliph Erdogan thus found love for Pakistan). And Iran wants Pakistan while it is Iran's next door neighbour. 

 

While India is alone and cannot have any block due to it's religion. And geolocation of India made it possible to become part of SAARC block, but it is not so important as the countries in this block are not important themselves for India. If these countries had the oil, instead of GCC, then SAARC block would have also become important. 

 

 

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