Jump to content

NSE/BSE Trading/Investing thread !!!


Recommended Posts

On 4/16/2021 at 3:42 PM, diga said:

Not sure if this is the right place to post it , but Citibank is closing its India retail operations... Any suggestions on another bank  other than ICICI / HDFC ?


i think kotak bank will be buying citis retail operations .. probably savings and credit cards of citi will be taken over by other banks


Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, velu said:

thought mkt will tank after mimbai , chennai , blore lockdowns , but mkts firing up :mad: 

most probably mkts thinks current covid situation is overreaction


Global mkts didn't tank during lockdown, big dip in March 2020, then impressive bull run rest year, even in India.


For sensex, they looking at crudely, 10m people die in India annually, I would be surprised if COvid death toll reaches 1million.


As long as no threat of strict lockdown and working population can see through covid then future earnings look good.


Also more importantly China is humming along well and global supply chain strong.


The current big threat to global markets is the looming shortage of advanced semiconductor chips.



Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, velu said:

thought mkt will tank after mimbai , chennai , blore lockdowns , but mkts firing up :mad: 

most probably mkts thinks current covid situation is overreaction


Markets haven't reflected ground reality for some time. Besides the high liquidity & low interest rate environment, the newbies are also trying to make a quick buck since last year and probably driving up stocks based on the rise in new accounts with brokerages. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, diga said:


As Velu mentioned , results are good but the next 2 quarters will not be easy for anyone due to the current corona crisis. I am invested in this for next 3 year horizon so I will ride out the fluctuation.  



are you writing covered calls on your shares ?

can sell calls 10% away and liquid as well ..  easy 2/3% returns 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/3/2021 at 5:13 AM, diga said:

@velu @Straight Drive Any views on Bharat forge? I see an inflection point in Auto sales . 


 @diga  Managed to have a look at Bharat Forge today.

Bharat Forge Ltd. (BFL) is in business since 50 years. BFL is the Flagship company of Kalyani group which is second largest forging company in world after ThyssenKrupp. This technology driven manufacturing company  caters to diverse automotive and Industrial sectors like power, Oil and Gas, Rail , Marine, Aerospace, Construction, agriculture  and mining and defence.


BFL has formed new company Kalyani Powertrain. This subsidiary company will cater to end to end operations in  EV segment business.


BFL has maintained global leadership in power train and chassis components. India’s largest auto component exporter.  It is technology development partner for top 5 commercial vehicles and passenger vehicle manufacturers globally.


Power: Critical components for thermal, wind, hydro and nuclear power applications.

Oil and Gas:  engineer surface, sub-sea, and deep-sea applications for high-value and high-technology oil & gas.


Defense: Supply critical components for Defence in India.


Construction and mining: Manufacturing of critical high end components for extreme applications.


Rail and Marine: manufactures engine components for domestic and export markets. Indigeniously developed turbo chargers.

Engineering: High quality products for heavy engineering applications.




Promoter Holding 45.8%

FII 22.1%

MF’s / Institutions  15.2 %

Public 17%

 Note:  No pledged shares.



Manufacturing locations: 10 across 5 countries (India, US, Germany, Sweden and France). In India, they have 5 plants. 4 forging and machining plants in  Maharshtra (Pune, Baramati, Satara and Chakan) and 1 alluminium casting plant in Nellore.



Not posting good results since last many quarters.

Europe – 39% , North America – 36% , India – 22%

 Domestic – 42%, Export – 58%


17 % from Passenger vehicle segment.



Operates in capex intensive industry. Debt has been in okay range considering that it operates in capital intensive industry.

Govrenment directions to divert Oxygen to critical healthcare segment during pandemic will affect some crucial activities at manufacturing and forging plants.

BS 6 implementation has progressed gradually as compared to 2020.

Emerging Markets and Developing economies as well as Advanced Economies are still facing lockdowns, which is challenging  the recovery of demand as well as challenged SCM. This will be a headwind.

Governments PLI scheme for Made In India and Atma Nirbharta in Defense will act as tailwind. Recently it got Rs 178 crore order from Ministry of Defence to develop and supply Kalyani M4. Provides developed armored vehicles and mine protected vehicles. Very few companies like Ashok Leyland are competing with it. Iirc , Ashok Leyland also got some order last year.

Automobile scrappage policy announced in 2021.

Sluggish demand in auto sector (M & HCV).

Weak demand in Oil and gas sector.

Direct exposure to  sectors related to economic  activity which is currently facing obstacles.


Some sectors it caters too are cyclical in nature for e.g. Auto and Oil and Gas.  Auto sector is currently not doing good.

It has more revenue from export.  Considering the COVID pandemic management will take more time in India as compared to Europe, the higher percentile of Export revenue will help as capital intensive sectors in Eruope will generate demand earlier than in India.

Bharat Forge has invested significant amount in Research and Development. It will help as backward integration as it is now in position to research, engineer, develop , manufacture and improvise their offerings. The company is filing patents.

Focus on Aluminium forging as automobile and aerospace will demand more of the relatively light-weight metal.

Tevva Motors investment has been written-off though they still have access and license to technology of Tevva.


50-50 JV with REFU Elektronic and Stakes in Tork Motors to diversify and expand into  business in E-mobility.

Usage of IIoT and digitalization to improve productivity which means the company is agile and adapting to changes required to be on par with competitors.


PAT downfall of 55.8% in FY 2019 as compared to FY 2020 with 30% drop in total revenue. BFL saw loss in last 4 quarters. Annual results to be announced, but it will be bad in comparison to the previous years.

Tata Motors, Kirloskar Oils, VE Commercial Vehicles , M&M, GM as some of the clients.




52 week high – 676.9

52 week low – 263.1


ATH – 798 on 1 Feb 2018.


I would say this is a promising stock, however the current challenges prevailing due to global pandemic as well as the decline in cyclical auto sector, the CMP 650.20 seems overvalued / expensive to me. Next resistances are 657.47 and 664.23. Whereas Supports are at 630.03, 623.27 and 612.93.  It is likely that entry can be done at a lower entry price. Currently it is very Bullish though. I guess in few days it will give a chance to buy it on dips, thus enabling a lower entry point. Surely the COVID will be countered by human race some year and at some point of time the cyclical auto sector will be back in boom. Positional trades seems risky to me for the time being. Personally, i liked the business, although it's capital intensive and sectors it caters to are mostly cyclical as well. No red flags in compliance as well. Overall this is a good stock to enter with few years in mind if one can hold on the money in the stock for that period.




Edited by Straight Drive
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/9/2021 at 10:20 PM, RedFever said:

man a $1000 dollar investment on jan 1, would have been worth more than 100K now.

Anyone investing a lakh or even 10k would be a crorepati by now! Well almost, after taxes & whatnot, btw check out Shiba Inu :hysterical:

Edited by R!TTER
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, R!TTER said:

Anyone investing a lakh or even 10k would be a crorepati by now! Well almost, after taxes & whatnot, btw check out Shina Ibu :hysterical:

Shiba Inu,, it has also increased 2000% in the last 1 month.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Create New...