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NSE/BSE Trading/Investing thread !!!


velu

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1 hour ago, nevada said:

It's the other way around. BTC dropped because Musk stopped accepting it. He seems to be interested in promoting other coins. 

 

 

china banned crypto transactions 

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12 hours ago, velu said:

china banned crypto transactions 

Nothing to do with China ban, all coins combined their value plunged over $1T (yes Trillion with a big T) in less than a week. China may have benefited of course but this was well orchestrated, you need to watch Wolfy from Wall Street a second time or try Billons :cantstop:

 

Ok just about a week but still massive selloff & that flash sale could only have been driven by something superlatively massive like China, or a bunch of crooks doing the same sh!t they do with stocks!

Edited by R!TTER
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On 1/10/2021 at 11:00 PM, Straight Drive said:

Used this boom to book profits and reshuffled the portfolio.

 

One of the long fresh position in reshuffled portfolio is in Britannia Industries at 3653.

 

After avoiding long positions in pharma for decades, finally have gone for Divis Laboratories at 3709. 

 

Any long term fundamental  views  on above two stocks. Any better stock alternatives in the sectors which they operate in?  @velu @jusarrived  @randomGuy

7 months later

Divis is at 4261


Britannia is at 3489 

 

Good to see the market make new highs. A lot of stocks are too much overvalued though and once dumping starts the investors have to book heavy losses in them.

 

FIIs have been net buyers and DIIs have been net sellers.

 

Monetary policy announced on last Friday with repo rate unchanged at 4%

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Straight Drive
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8 hours ago, Straight Drive said:

7 months later

Divis is at 4261


Britannia is at 3489 

 

Good to see the market make new highs. A lot of stocks are too much overvalued though and once dumping starts the investors have to book heavy losses in them.

 

FIIs have been net buyers and DIIs have been net sellers.

 

Monetary policy announced on last Friday with repo rate unchanged at 4%

 

 

 

 

 

I am holding IDFC limited (holding company of IDFC first bank and IDFC mutual fund) in hope of reverse merger with bank and hope of hold co discount narrowing but hope is getting less and less :(( ... RBI and the management are delaying things 

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2 hours ago, randomGuy said:

I am holding IDFC limited (holding company of IDFC first bank and IDFC mutual fund) in hope of reverse merger with bank and hope of hold co discount narrowing but hope is getting less and less :(( ... RBI and the management are delaying things 

IDFC has majorly wholesale book and lot of it is under stress , more so given the current scenario.It has been only two years ago since they demerged IDFC retail segment to form IDFC First bank with Capital first. Then there were talks of IDFC First will merge with IDFC. Then after some time, the reverse merging talks came in news. This is totally weird from mangement point of view. How can investors make decissions when management is so much unpredictable.

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10 minutes ago, Straight Drive said:

IDFC has majorly wholesale book and lot of it is under stress , more so given the current scenario.It has been only two years ago since they demerged IDFC retail segment to form IDFC First bank with Capital first. Then there were talks of IDFC First will merge with IDFC. Then after some time, the reverse merging talks came in news. This is totally weird from mangement point of view. How can investors make decissions when management is so much unpredictable.

Anil Singhvi (investor) came on the board of hold co. ,  may favour value unlocking (sell AMC and reverse merge with the bank). Or maybe everything with fall flat on investors' face. Bank is probably in better shape... interest rates on savings reduced , casa 50% etc. From the outside Or maybe hiding something i don't know.in any case, bank stock has appreciated.

Edited by randomGuy
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51 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

Anil Singhvi (investor) came on the board of hold co. ,  may favour value unlocking (sell AMC and reverse merge with the bank). Or maybe everything with fall flat on investors' face. Bank is probably in better shape... interest rates on savings reduced , casa 50% etc. From the outside Or maybe hiding something i don't know.in any case, bank stock has appreciated.

 

I also feel IDFC first has relatively better chances of recovery.  However,  there major client base is retailers like small enterprises, shop keepers, small vendors. Basically there ticket size is majorly of retail accrued by the better risk management structure of Capital First. The impact of COVID on their customer base is more. The recovery for IDFC First will hence be prolonged further. As you rightly said , their casa has been improving yoy. The stock has improved because the market is in boom makong new all time highs, not so much because the company is improving. Even rubbish penny shares are appreciating by 2x. So we should be avoiding the share price in current boom to judge performance of the company. Last quarter results were impacted by Covid. Going to be same or probably worse in this quarter as many retailers would have gone bankrupt as well. Thus buying it above 60 is very risky when there are chances it will give entry around 50 some day. We do factor in future while investing, so some may still consider buying at 60. Not saying that IDFC first wont turn around the corners but there are better alternatives in the banking space. HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank.
 

Had a look at Divis and added more of it today.Now looking forward for some other stock.

 

Have you looked at Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserve in NBFC space. Would like to know your views in that case. I am yet to have a look at them. 

Edited by Straight Drive
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5 minutes ago, Straight Drive said:

 

I also feel IDFC first has relatively better chances of recovery.  However,  there major client base is retailers like shop keepers, small vendors. Basically there ticket size is majorly of retail accrued by the better risk management structure of Capital First. The impact of COVID on their customer base is more. The recovery for IDFC First will hence be prolonged further. As you rightly said , their casa has been improving yoy. The stock has improved because the market is in boom makong new all time highs, not so much because the company is improving. Even rubbish penny shares are appreciating by 2x. So we should be avoiding the share price in current boom to judge performance of the company. Last quarter results were impacted by Covid. Going to be same or probably worse in this quarter as many retailers would have gone bankrupt as well. Thus buying it above 60 is very risky when there are chances it will give entry around 50 some day. We do factor in future while investing, so some may still consider buying at 60. Not saying that IDFC first wont turn around the corners but there are better alternatives in the banking space.

Right..IDFC hold co. has been my inclination (rather than the bank), has disappointed me throughout ,  still holding it.

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9 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

Right..IDFC hold co. has been my inclination (rather than the bank), has disappointed me throughout ,  still holding it.

I do not like IDFC as it hasn't given good performances I.n fact from whatever has happened with ILFS, IDFC, Edelweiss, I stay as much away from Wholesale lenders except for HDFC which I have had in my portfolio before but booked profits.

 

IDFC First Bank exposure to Vodafone is 3240 cr which is slightly more than 3 % of their loan book. If struggling Vodafone manages to pay IDFC First, it will be great for IDFC First Bank. The overhang of that exposure has been a major downfall for IDFC First Bank.

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On 6/7/2021 at 10:48 AM, Straight Drive said:

I do not like IDFC as it hasn't given good performances I.n fact from whatever has happened with ILFS, IDFC, Edelweiss, I stay as much away from Wholesale lenders except for HDFC which I have had in my portfolio before but booked profits.

 

IDFC First Bank exposure to Vodafone is 3240 cr which is slightly more than 3 % of their loan book. If struggling Vodafone manages to pay IDFC First, it will be great for IDFC First Bank. The overhang of that exposure has been a major downfall for IDFC First Bank.

 

now it looks like idea wont pay the loan and default 

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On 1/10/2021 at 11:00 PM, Straight Drive said:

Used this boom to book profits and reshuffled the portfolio.

 

One of the long fresh position in reshuffled portfolio is in Britannia Industries at 3653.

 

After avoiding long positions in pharma for decades, finally have gone for Divis Laboratories at 3709. 

 

Any long term fundamental  views  on above two stocks. Any better stock alternatives in the sectors which they operate in?  @velu @jusarrived  @randomGuy

Divis is now 5209  (+1500 per share)

and Britannia is at 4088 (+400 per share) . Britannia has under performed imo. Better to exit fully from Britannia as well as Divis ( partly atleast if not fully).

 

 

Would like to have view of some traders ; how is new SEBI margin rule having an impact on traders category. 

 

Are freak trades happening far too frequently now

 

@velu
@jusarrived
@randomGuy

 

 

Edited by Straight Drive
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1 hour ago, Straight Drive said:

 

Would like to have view of some traders ; how is new SEBI margin rule having an impact on traders category. 

 

Are freak trades happening far too frequently now

 

@velu
@jusarrived
@randomGuy

 

 

 

 

many freak trades happening now .. 

few days back 37100 put went from 400 to 1950 in a minute and went back to 450rs 

today 3600 put went from 90 to 750rs and cooled down to 160rs ..

 

we had lower and upper band for options and if it touches it , there will be a trading freeze for soemtime ..

traders and brokers were complaining about it , so nse removed this bands .. now there is no upper and lower values , and freak trades are happening mostly because of it

i dont see any big difference in trading volume now after intraday leverages are removed .. we got margin benefits which more than compensates 

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