ICC World Test Championship 2019-21 [Continued]

[Norman]

Can anyone do the math and say if we win 2-1 against England and get 70 points, then what will our desired result in the Aus vs SAF series?

 

 

[Norman]

Nevermind I figured it out.

If we win 2-1 against England, we must hope that Australia loses atleast one game in South Africa or draws too. If they win 3-0 or 2-0, we're screwed. That is ofcourse if we win 2-1. If we win 3-0 or 3-1, we'll be through regardless.

[Stan AF]

 

 

Australia:

• are eliminated with a lost or drawn series vs. SA

• qualify for final with a 2-0 or 3-0 result vs. SA

• 2-1 and 1-0 results depend on IND-ENG result, looking for a close IND-ENG series:

  • If 2-1, then a 0-0 draw, 1-1 draw, 2-2 draw, 1-0 ENG, 2-0 ENG, 2-1 ENG, or 1-0 IND result will see Australia qualify for the final

  • If 1-0, then a 0-0 draw or 1-0 ENG result will see Australia qualify for the final

England:

• are eliminated with a lost or drawn series vs. IND

• qualify for final with a 3-0 or 4-0 result vs. IND

• 3-1, 2-1, 2-0, and 1-0 results depend on SA-AUS series, looking for SA to do well:

  • If 3-1 then any result except 2-0 AUS or 3-0 AUS will see England qualify

  • If 2-1 or 2-0 then any result except 2-1 AUS, 2-0 AUS, or 3-0 AUS will see England qualify

  • If 1-0 then England qualify with any SA win or drawn series vs. AUS

India:

• are eliminated with a lost series vs. ENG

• qualify for final 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, or 3-1 result vs. ENG

• 2-2, 2-1, 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 results depend on SA-AUS series, looking for SA to do well:

  • If 2-1 then any result except 2-0 AUS or 3-0 AUS will see India qualify

  • If 2-2, 1-1, or 1-0 then any result except 2-1 AUS, 2-0 AUS, or 3-0 AUS will see India qualify

  • If 0-0 then India qualify with any SA win or drawn series vs. AUS

New Zealand:

• have played all of their matches for the championship, and need to hope that two things both don't happen - AUS win in a blowout, and IND-ENG is a blowout in either direction. The following results will see NZ eliminated:

  • IND 2-0, 3-0, 3-1, or 4-0 & AUS 2-0 or 3-0 (will result in an IND-AUS final)

  • ENG 3-0 or 4-0 & AUS 2-0 or 3-0 (will result in an ENG-AUS final)

If SA-AUS series is cancelled due to COVID restrictions:

• NZ advance to the final

• ENG need to win 3-1, 3-0, or 4-0 vs. India

• IND need to win 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1, or 4-0 vs. England

• AUS needs a close result in the IND-ENG series to advance: 0-0 draw, 1-1 draw, 2-2 draw, 2-1 ENG, 2-0 ENG, 1-0 ENG, 1-0 IND

Source: I ran the current WTC table against every possible scenario for the series that are still scheduled in 2021 (Python algorithm), and these were the crosstable results. Feel free to check my work, but I'm 99% sure that this is correct.

EDIT: So much interest - I made a graphic to help with all of this. Since the India-England series is first, here is a crosstable explaining what each possible series outcome will do to the WTC final hopes of each of the four teams.

--------------------------

If you use this information somewhere and got it directly from this post, I'd appreciate if you mention my reddit handle u/teddyterminal :P

 

 

  

• 24 minutes ago, Norman said:

Can anyone do the math and say if we win 2-1 against England and get 70 points, then what will our desired result in the Aus vs SAF series?

 

 

 

 

 

[Norman]

^^^^ My brain hurts lol.

[Stan AF]

5 minutes ago, Norman said:

^^^^ My brain hurts lol.

I know. I didn't bother reading it. I will take it one test match at a time.

[Lone Wolf]

If NZ qualifies for final..  They'll be favourites regardless who they face.  They'll have two tests vs Eng a week before final on 18th June in lords great preparation overall.  Indians will be coming off from IPl straight lol..  BCCI needs to arrange a game vs county side as well if we make it. 

Edited January 26, 2021 by Lone Wolf

[Norman]

Two months of IPL and then straight into the world Test championship final...

 

You cant make this stuff up. 

[QuarantineTormentino]

19 hours ago, Norman said:

Two months of IPL and then straight into the world Test championship final...

 

You cant make this stuff up. 

I hope Our key players are rested during the latter half of the IPL for the final. Or else a couple of players will breakdown on each day of the test match

[Adamant]

On 1/27/2021 at 5:25 PM, QuarantineTormentino said:

I hope Our key players are rested during the latter half of the IPL for the final. Or else a couple of players will breakdown on each day of the test match

Hahahaha

Kids say the darnedest thing 

[Adamant]

Wtc final has already been shifted by 4 days bcoz of its proximity with Ipl. 

I don't think any of our superstars have the honesty to leave his ipl team for a tournament of international importance. 

I will be highly impressed if someone decides to do that. 

[Soldier]

Well looks like saffers will get a phainta vs Australia. So aussies should win 2 or 3 0. Saffers are very poor ATM. 

 

We need to thrash England. 3-1 3 0 or 4 0. We can. Let's go. 

 

I think India vs Aussies in final. 

[sage]

Scenarios

 

[Stan AF]

60 points to Pakistan

[Lone Wolf]

Saffers are god awful..  Aussies will sweep them without breaking a sweat.  Another stat padding exercise for Marnus & Smith. 

 

[Soldier]

2 hours ago, Lone Wolf said:

Saffers are god awful..  Aussies will sweep them without breaking a sweat.  Another stat padding exercise for Marnus & Smith. 

 

I am praying for a rabada special. Smith and Warner are rabada's bunnies. 

 

 

In South Africa it's different. Affes can beat them at home. 

 

[Serpico]

4 hours ago, Soldier said:

Well looks like saffers will get a phainta vs Australia. So aussies should win 2 or 3 0. Saffers are very poor ATM. 

 

We need to thrash England. 3-1 3 0 or 4 0. We can. Let's go. 

 

I think India vs Aussies in final. 

  

2 hours ago, Lone Wolf said:

Saffers are god awful..  Aussies will sweep them without breaking a sweat.  Another stat padding exercise for Marnus & Smith. 

overreaction. its not like they lost the match by an innings or gave up on it on day 1. Pak created a turning pitch from day 1 and they competed well until last 10 overs yesterday when they lost 3 wickets in 10 overs. With just one decent spinner, its always going to be uphill task for them. They will do better in next match as Rawalpindi is supposed to be better for pacers.

 

Australia hasn't won a single away series since 2015.. not a single series folks.. not even in Bangladesh! Plus Smith, Warner and Starc are still carrying the scars from their previous SA tour, not to mention thoroughly softened and demoralized by the B-G series. I will be surprised if they somehow turn it all around in a month and win an away series

[Lone Wolf]

1 hour ago, Serpico said:

  

overreaction. its not like they lost the match by an innings or gave up on it on day 1. Pak created a turning pitch from day 1 and they competed well until last 10 overs yesterday when they lost 3 wickets in 10 overs. With just one decent spinner, its always going to be uphill task for them. They will do better in next match as Rawalpindi is supposed to be better for pacers.

 

Australia hasn't won a single away series since 2015.. not a single series folks.. not even in Bangladesh! Plus Smith, Warner and Starc are still carrying the scars from their previous SA tour, not to mention thoroughly softened and demoralized by the B-G series. I will be surprised if they somehow turn it all around in a month and win an away series

Yes but same team retained the Ashes in Eng..  And we all saw how England hammered Saffers in their own den & Australians have enjoyed playing on those surfaces & their record in SA is great overall. 

Man to man SA doesn't have the firepower to down Australia.  Both teams would be under the pump though due to poor performances recently. 

Starc would be dropped & Pattinson will play instead I reckon. 

[Lone Wolf]

1 hour ago, Soldier said:

I am praying for a rabada special. Smith and Warner are rabada's bunnies. 

 

 

In South Africa it's different. Affes can beat them at home. 

 

He needs to be at his absolute best if SA has to stand a chance.  Against Australia they prepare flat decks though..  It worked last time since they had ABD in full flow & Markarm in great touch. 

Maharaj also has Smith's number btw. 

[Soldier]

1 hour ago, Serpico said:

  

overreaction. its not like they lost the match by an innings or gave up on it on day 1. Pak created a turning pitch from day 1 and they competed well until last 10 overs yesterday when they lost 3 wickets in 10 overs. With just one decent spinner, its always going to be uphill task for them. They will do better in next match as Rawalpindi is supposed to be better for pacers.

 

Australia hasn't won a single away series since 2015.. not a single series folks.. not even in Bangladesh! Plus Smith, Warner and Starc are still carrying the scars from their previous SA tour, not to mention thoroughly softened and demoralized by the B-G series. I will be surprised if they somehow turn it all around in a month and win an away series

Hope so. Saffers are my second favourite team after my beloved ATG Indian side. 

Edited January 29, 2021 by Soldier

[Soldier]

42 minutes ago, Lone Wolf said:

Yes but same team retained the Ashes in Eng..  And we all saw how England hammered Saffers in their own den & Australians have enjoyed playing on those surfaces & their record in SA is great overall. 

Man to man SA doesn't have the firepower to down Australia.  Both teams would be under the pump though due to poor performances recently. 

Starc would be dropped & Pattinson will play instead I reckon. 

No not poor performance by Aussies vs Indiana. Aussi s played really well. India MADE them look poorer in comparison because India is the better side when they play to their potential. India is the best side in the world if they play at their p ak ability and it showed.