Vaccine theory

[coffee_rules]

1 minute ago, BacktoCricaddict said:

Yes. random variation.  See explanation above, bhai.

It happens for any virus. We take flu shots every year which would be protecting against the latest variant of flu  virus (or at least hoped) and invariably get flu once a year

[urbestfriend]

17 minutes ago, BacktoCricaddict said:

 

Variants are always triggered by random chance.  With each round of replication, 1000s of variants are generated.  Most of them make no difference.  Very few of them acquire a random gene sequence that makes them more powerful (evade immunity etc) and become VOCs (Variants of Concern).  

 

Lower the rate of replication --> Lower the emergence of random variants --> Lower the emergence of VOCs. 

 

If a VOC emerges in one patient, but precautions were in place, it would not have spread to a critical number of people to get out of control.  Because spread is exponential, extreme caution at the front end has tremendous benefits on the back end.  Conversely neglect at the front end is multiplied many times over at the back end.  

 

One example is the AP variant.  It was reported last year.  It is 15x more deadly, but doesn't spread as fast.  But it had not completely died down because people were moving around.  And now, it reached a critical number and boom ... out of control.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So variants are randomly created..It has no cause, it just happens..fine!

Most important question is when a new variant comes, how the vaccines which is based on earlier variant is effective and antibodies generated by the vaccines can fight the new genome sequence? 

 

[BacktoCricaddict]

28 minutes ago, coffee_rules said:

It happens for any virus. We take flu shots every year which would be protecting against the latest variant of flu  virus (or at least hoped) and invariably get flu once a year

Again when public says variants, we mean VOCs. 

 

For the flu, after all these decades of the infection settling in the human population, there are a limited number likely VOCs, we have a pretty good handle on which VOCs will be prevalent year to year, and the vaccines are formulated to fight the specific VOCs.  Some years are more successful than others.   This damn CoViD is still in its 2nd year, we don't know what VOCs will settle in.  

[BacktoCricaddict]

37 minutes ago, urbestfriend said:

 

So variants are randomly created..It has no cause, it just happens..fine!

Most important question is when a new variant comes, how the vaccines which is based on earlier variant is effective and antibodies generated by the vaccines can fight the new genome sequence? 

 

To speak very strictly in biological terms, they are not "created." When the virus replicates its genetic material, many many random changes occur.  Especially in this virus, in flu virus and other cold viruses.  Most of the changes make no difference.  But some particular changes make the virus bind better to your cells.  They may still be recognized by antibodies, but since they bind better, they will be harder to get rid off and end up winning the battle.  

 

Antibodies recognize specific parts of the virus.  Say there are 5 parts A - E.  Say the vaccine induces the antibody that recognizes Part A of the original virus.  In the VOC, Part A, B, C, D all could be the same as original, but E might change so the virus now spreads better or binds better or kills better.  But antibody will still recognize A.  

 

Scientists have developed vaccines based on an understanding of which part is least likely to undergo major changes and can still be recognized.  But sometimes the recognition is not as good and the VOC overwhelms you before you can fight it off.

 

Hope that Immunology 101 lesson helped :-). 

Edited May 6, 2021 by BacktoCricaddict

[nevada]

3 hours ago, urbestfriend said:

I had gone for vacation back in January time frame, guess what, it seemed corona had vanished. No one wore the mask in that area(remote area), everything was normal. Most businesses were running, people were travelling in public transport just like per-covid times.  One can correlate this with bigger protests that were going on like farmers protest all over india where thousands of people gathered. I for sure thought worse is behind us. If there was no herd immunity achieved, I am sure the numbers would've shot through the roof. 

Yet, it baffles me that second wave started only during feb, and it is getting worse during march/april time frame when Vaccination drive started in late Jan and feb. It is interesting that virus is spreading like a wildfire during the summer in India where the temparature is very high and they say virus is not as effective in the heat as opposed to cold weather. Why is this second wave more serious to younger population compared to phase 1? 

 

I dont have any data, but I am sceptical about the some relation between vaccination and second wave. When I hear that Brazil rejected covaxin because of noncompliance(possible presence of active virus), I am worried about the efficacy of the vaccination. Whether they comply with the best manufacturing practive when they are in a hurry to manufacture crores of vaccination? I see that countries opted for mRNA vaccinations have reduced the overall numbers considerably, so vaccination with inactive dead virus as effective? 

 

Also I keep hearing from the medical fraternity very divergent views. from the initial  assessment of  two weeks after first dose will also give sufficient immunity or two weeks after second dose gives the full immunity, now they have moved on to say that infection might happen after the second dose too, but the reaction is mild. But there are many reports that patient caught corona after second dose including doctors and died. Below are some examples.

 

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2021/apr/26/second-covid-wave-killed-34-doctors-in-april-says-indian-medical-association-2295043.html

All doctors completed the vaccination by March, yet 34 doctors died during April. 

https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Delhi/37-doctors-of-delhi-hospital-test-positive-for-covid-19-in-last-10-12-days/article34278275.ece

Actual question that what is the efficacy of the vaccine? How do they measure the efficacy? Are they comparing the data before vaccination to after vaccination? When they claim that severity reduces after the vaccination, what is the baseline data they use? Because sever infection happens to minor percentage even before the vaccination so without proper baseline these theories seems ludicrous. 

 

There is also doubt about the safety of the vaccines. They claimed 100% safe, but there are many reports of death after receiving the vaccination. My distant uncle died in a week after the vaccination due to heart attack whereas he was very healthy. We thought it was coincidental, but other reports including actor Vivek makes me think there may be a connection. 

 

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/andhra-pradesh/lab-technician-dies-several-days-after-second-covid-19-shot/article34102818.ece

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/maharashtra-man-dies-after-getting-second-dose-of-covid-vaccine-219951

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/raipur/chhattisgarh-joint-health-director-dies-of-covid-despite-taking-2-vaccine-jabs/articleshow/82075952.cms

 

 

 

 

The facts about this virus keep changing so much that I find it difficult to believe that somehow, they got the vaccine right WRT efficacy and more importantly, safety within a mere few months. Cases are exploding and to keep the reported numbers low, PHCs have been instructed to do only x number of tests per day, no matter how many patients show up. They are giving tokens to patients and asking them to wait till their turn, which could take days. If there is no honesty in mere acknowledgement of case numbers, how can one trust that there is honesty in the claims about vaccine safety and efficacy?

[urbestfriend]

 

Go through this thread, he had 600+ case of post vaccination deaths which was reported, but it is definitely more considering only small percentage of death gets reported. I dont know if some government organization is maintaining some data or is it just toeing the line of big pharma? 

[Clarke]

1 hour ago, urbestfriend said:

 

https://fortune.com/2021/02/03/delhi-covid-antibodies-india-declining-cases-herd-immunity/ 

End of January Delhi had 32 hospitalization and 3 deaths. Now 20K cases and thousands of death. What has triggered this wave? We had farmer protests where lakhs of people participating way back in december and january which didn't trigger this wave. But now we have a situation where virtual lockdown is not preventing thousands of cases everyday. 

Does scientific community have any answers what triggered this mutation? 

 

Two variants, the UK variant (B1.1.7) and the Indian variant (B.1.617), are largely blamed for the current spate of infections.

 

[BacktoCricaddict]

Just now, urbestfriend said:

 

Go through this thread, he had 600+ case of post vaccination deaths which was reported, but it is definitely more considering only small percentage of death gets reported. I dont know if some government organization is maintaining some data or is it just toeing the line of big pharma? 

 

Bhai, every death is sad.  But there are so many possible mechanisms.  If they got exposed soon after dose, they are quite vulnerable.

 

Some of us are convinced that this VOC was placed strategically to divide our nation.  I cannot disprove that.  But from years of teaching molecular biology, biochemistry and genetics, it is not surprising at all to me that these VOCs are emerging when high level of replication is allowed.  It is just normal, expected viral evolution. 

 

But one thing is for sure.  If someone placed this to divide us, they have succeeded beyond their wildest dreams.   

[urbestfriend]

46 minutes ago, BacktoCricaddict said:

To speak very strictly in biological terms, they are not "created." When the virus replicates its genetic material, many many random changes occur.  Especially in this virus, in flu virus and other cold viruses.  Most of the changes make no difference.  But some particular changes make the virus bind better to your cells.  They may still be recognized by antibodies, but since they bind better, they will be harder to get rid off and end up winning the battle.  

 

Antibodies recognize specific parts of the virus.  Say there are 5 parts A - E.  Say the vaccine induces the antibody that recognizes Part A of the original virus.  In the VOC, Part A, B, C, D all could be the same as original, but E might change so the virus now spreads better or binds better or kills better.  But antibody will still recognize A.  

 

Scientists have developed vaccines based on an understanding of which part is least likely to undergo major changes and can still be recognized.  But sometimes the recognition is not as good and the VOC overwhelms you before you can fight it off.

 

Hope that Immunology 101 lesson helped :-). 

Thanks for the explanation. I am very weak in this aspect, so pardon me for my doubts. 

 

Back in january when they conducted the survey, they claimed that 56% people in Delhi had antibodies when a random sample of 20K was tested. It means majority had already achieved immunity, If I understand correctly it is equivalent to 56% getting vaccinated. Evidence also suggests that despite protests and gatherings, we didn't have a spike in the cases. So at least we can agree that majority had developed immunity against earlier VOC.

 

Now when virus gets mutated, as you say some part of the virus gets mutated. If this were the case, I'd expect that majority would fight off this infection as their antibodies would've recognised them. SO in an ideal world, when decent herd immunity is achieved, I'd expect new variants of vitus is less deadly and severe. This is not the case considering the deaths. What explains this? If there are considerable mutation that our natural antibodies are of no help, how would vaccination which is created from earlier VOC  help. 

 

Edited May 6, 2021 by urbestfriend

[rkt.india]

8 minutes ago, urbestfriend said:

Thanks for the explanation. I am very weak in this aspect, so pardon me for my doubts. 

 

Back in january when they conducted the survey, they claimed that 56% people in Delhi had antibodies when a random sample of 20K was tested. It means majority had already achieved immunity, If I understand correctly it is equivalent to 56% getting vaccinated. Evidence also suggests that despite protests and gatherings, we didn't have a spike in the cases. So at least we can agree that majority had developed immunity against earlier VOC.

 

Now when virus gets mutated, as you say some part of the virus gets mutated. If this were the case, I'd expect that majority would fight off this infection as their antibodies would've recognised them. SO in an ideal world, when decent herd immunity is achieved, I'd expect new variants of vitus is less deadly and severe. This is not the case considering the deaths. What explains this? If there are considerable mutation that our natural antibodies are of no help, how would vaccination which is created from earlier VOC  help. 

 

TBH, no one can really explain anything. This one virus gives symptoms of three serious diseases flu, malaria and HIV. 3 in 1. It's absolutely man made. It's completely unpredictable.

[Vilander]

4 hours ago, urbestfriend said:

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2021/apr/26/second-covid-wave-killed-34-doctors-in-april-says-indian-medical-association-2295043.html

All doctors completed the vaccination by March, yet 34 doctors died during April. 

doctors that get exposed have high viral load and also have multiple strains that mutate within. Some of the older generation folks who died can be explained like this, vaccination does not prevent infection only disease, in this case it could not do that itself due to the constant and repeated viral load. 

[Vilander]

28 minutes ago, BacktoCricaddict said:

Some of us are convinced that this VOC was placed strategically to divide our nation.  I cannot disprove that.  But from years of teaching molecular biology, biochemistry and genetics, it is not surprising at all to me that these VOCs are emerging when high level of replication is allowed.  It is just normal, expected viral evolution. 

 

But one thing is for sure.  If someone placed this to divide us, they have succeeded beyond their wildest dreams.   

 

please do explain further.. how is this dividing India.. you mean social economic strata..is there proof around some VOC more prevalent in some social strata that can not be explained ? 

[Vilander]

1 hour ago, urbestfriend said:

So variants are randomly created..It has no cause, it just happens..fine!

there is basically billions of viral particles that replicate themselves and mutate by chance --> similar to evolution 

[urbestfriend]

There is a curious case of BD. Take a look at the graph. 

 

 

India exported 2 million doses AZ during Feb, and it was deployed during March. Look at the peak, they had a peak during March and April timeframe.

India didn't send the next consignment which was supposed to be sent due to higher cases, and it seems BD is reverting back to normalcy. 

Coincidence? Better covid management by BD? Or is there something more? 

[gattaca]

17 hours ago, urbestfriend said:

There is a curious case of BD. Take a look at the graph. 

 

 

India exported 2 million doses AZ during Feb, and it was deployed during March. Look at the peak, they had a peak during March and April timeframe.

India didn't send the next consignment which was supposed to be sent due to higher cases, and it seems BD is reverting back to normalcy. 

Coincidence? Better covid management by BD? Or is there something more? 

There could be many factors like festivals and social gatherings. It might as well comeback countries with denser population are not out of woods yet. As they virus can circulate more and form VOCs. If you see UK, Brazil and India all have high denser populations. They can have multiple waves. 

[urbestfriend]

12 minutes ago, gattaca said:

There could be many factors like festivals and social gatherings. It might as well comeback countries with denser population are not out of woods yet. As they virus can circulate more and form VOCs. If you see UK, Brazil and India all have high denser populations. They can have multiple waves. 

BD is more denser, agree that they are in lockdown which would've helped to contain..But India is also in partial lock down in various pockets..But ramzan this month will show us how they fare. 

[Mariyam]

On 5/6/2021 at 2:56 PM, ravishingravi said:

 

I am not sure where I stand on the vaccine. But I have to totally agree with you here. To my mind, this whole things has turned me off media, social media and god forsaken judiciary. @Mariyam wtf is judiciary doing in India. Here I am worried about govt overreach during Pandemic and judiciary has just blown it.

You are using over reach in what context exactly? The comments on the EC?

 

Let me put this back at you. What would have the judiciary do in this situation?

[coffee_rules]

^^ Who is the authority that thinks they can administer better than UPSC/IAS/MBA graduates?

 

Who is the authority that can make laws without any people support through the legislature?

 

Who is the authority that thinks they are better than most scientific experts on pandemic, medicines, vaccines etc?

 

They should worry about the long pending criminal cases and open midnight for Afzal Guru petition  or Karnataka election decisions and not meddle around in this crisis..

[vvvslaxman]

Without any scientific data backing we cannot offer advice on whether vaccine should be used or not. The anti vaxers  are one of the reason why things are slow. Polio, measles, chicken pox many things are under control thanks to vaccine. It is preposterous to think develop "natural immunity" with covid. You may not be able to live to reap the benefits of your 'acquired immunity".

https://www.historyofvaccines.org/timeline/all

[Number]

UK vaccinated 50% of its population (with AZ only?) and now they have a test positivity rate of 1%. 

Yes there might be need of immunity booster shots but that is something can be thought over later.

Bharat Biotech is already working for a Nasal spray vaccine so going further we may have a better chance of that kind of solution.