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Austin 3:!6

Indian State Election 2022 - Thread

Predict the winner  

22 members have voted

  1. 1. Which Party will form Govt in UP?

    • BJP
    • Samajwadi Party
    • BSP
      0
    • Congress
      0
    • Others
      0
  2. 2. Which Party will form Govt in Punjab?

  3. 3. Which Party will form Govt in Uttarakhand, Goa & Manipur?

    • BJP in all 3 states
    • BJP in Manipur only but lose other two states
    • Congress will win Uttarakhand and Goa
    • Other


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8 hours ago, Austin 3:!6 said:

UP chunav Opinion Poll: BJP’s vote share falling in UP, Akhilesh is seeing an advantage

https://hindustannewshub.com/india-news/up-chunav-opinion-poll-bjps-vote-share-falling-in-up-akhilesh-is-seeing-an-advantage/

Bull shyte bjp is getting atleast 41-42% vote share easily,you can tell from body language and interviews of akhilesh that they are not making that much inroads as they wanted to

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On 1/29/2022 at 6:29 PM, vayuu1 said:

Bull shyte bjp is getting atleast 41-42% vote share easily,you can tell from body language and interviews of akhilesh that they are not making that much inroads as they wanted to

 

Cvoter actually have increased the BJP vote share to 43%

 

Dont know what this article is trying to say...

 

 

Keep in mind, the front runner in UP in 2007, 2012 and 2017 has always been underestimated from the final outcome. Poll of polls have BJP at 230 while, the Satta have BJP at 245. 

 

I think these hitjob articles are just the left eco system trying to make this a contest. Best ignored.

 

WhatsApp Image 2022-01-31 at 12.45.36.jpeg

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These are my general comments.

 

Punjab Congress SLP (single largest party) SAD is being underestimated. AAP vote is inversely proportional to SAD vote.

Uttarakhand 50/50 , several factors can determine winner, including rebellion and turnout. Anybodies state.

Goa, another BJP slp, full majority depends on TMC+AAP vote. In 2017 too BJP was polled to be winning but Cong won more seats. Problem with small states is that constituencies are won on a few thousand votes. Easier for independents to make an impact.

Manipur NDA. BJP post poll alliance with NEDA partners. Sarma will do the rest provided BJP dont fall away in terms of seat count.

UP BJP+ 240-260.

 

Barring UP which is more settled. AAP vote is the biggest question mark in these states. i am a bit circumspect on the AAP vote in Goa especially. Punjab I think they can poll 30-32%. But in terms of seats they simply wont poll enough in Doab and Majha. 

 

The truth is that the BMC election in Maharashtra probably packs more political relevance than Uttarakhand Goa and Manipur combined. These small states are simply a cherry on the cake.  If Congress lose Punjab but win in Uttarakhand it will be a net loss for the party.

 

 

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1 hour ago, G_B_ said:

These are my general comments.

 

Punjab Congress SLP (single largest party) SAD is being underestimated. AAP vote is inversely proportional to SAD vote.

Uttarakhand 50/50 , several factors can determine winner, including rebellion and turnout. Anybodies state.

Goa, another BJP slp, full majority depends on TMC+AAP vote. In 2017 too BJP was polled to be winning but Cong won more seats. Problem with small states is that constituencies are won on a few thousand votes. Easier for independents to make an impact.

Manipur NDA. BJP post poll alliance with NEDA partners. Sarma will do the rest provided BJP dont fall away in terms of seat count.

UP BJP+ 240-260.

 

Barring UP which is more settled. AAP vote is the biggest question mark in these states. i am a bit circumspect on the AAP vote in Goa especially. Punjab I think they can poll 30-32%. But in terms of seats they simply wont poll enough in Doab and Majha. 

 

The truth is that the BMC election in Maharashtra probably packs more political relevance than Uttarakhand Goa and Manipur combined. These small states are simply a cherry on the cake.  If Congress lose Punjab but win in Uttarakhand it will be a net loss for the party.

 

 

It is hard to fight anti-incumbency in India, even IG and RajivGandhi with powerful parliamentary holding have lost elections. BJP will eventually lose in UP or GEs and we will see the likes of MaBa, RaGa, ArKej  vying to be PM, most likely in 2024 itself. 

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I think it is true that all states are meant to be won and lost. The aim of the BJP should be to be a force capable of forming governments in the 20 odd biggest states.

 

Atm BJP is not the main opposition or substantial part of government in Punjab Kerala AP Tamil nadu Telangana (not on paper atleast till the next assembly elections). Thats roughly 19% of the indian population. 

 

Of the people you mention, they each have their pitfalls. Mamata, age is not on her side. RaGa the Congress is not a force in states which represent 50% of the Indian population . AAP has yet to break into any big state. At max they can break into smaller states and it will take time for AAP to build a pan India network. Of all of them honestly long term I think Kejriwal shows most promise.

 

 

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

I think it is true that all states are meant to be won and lost. The aim of the BJP should be to be a force capable of forming governments in the 20 odd biggest states.

 

Atm BJP is not the main opposition or substantial part of government in Punjab Kerala AP Tamil nadu Telangana (not on paper atleast till the next assembly elections). Thats roughly 19% of the indian population. 

 

Of the people you mention, they each have their pitfalls. Mamata, age is not on her side. RaGa the Congress is not a force in states which represent 50% of the Indian population . AAP has yet to break into any big state. At max they can break into smaller states and it will take time for AAP to build a pan India network. Of all of them honestly long term I think Kejriwal shows most promise.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This picture suggests that its one way traffic unless BJP screw up big time themselves. The key is to remain in power long enough to change the political dynamics. Congress understands this all too well. 

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3 hours ago, coffee_rules said:

It is hard to fight anti-incumbency in India, even IG and RajivGandhi with powerful parliamentary holding have lost elections. BJP will eventually lose in UP or GEs and we will see the likes of MaBa, RaGa, ArKej  vying to be PM, most likely in 2024 itself. 

Not happening

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