Sri Lankan economic crisis

[BacktoCricaddict]

14 hours ago, HamHindustani said:

Why are they fleeing to India. Should go to China or Paxtan. What does India get in return to shelter them?

Practical knowledge about natural farming?

 

Edited March 29, 2022 by BacktoCricaddict

[Prakat]

How Sri Lanka Has Fallen Into Darkness

We have 13 hour powercuts now, and people are enraged

Drawing by the excellent artist Safiya S

I don’t have a ‘take’ on this. This is just where I am. I’ll tell you how I see it. I don’t know if that’s how it is.

April is the hottest month in Sri Lanka. Just unbelievably hot, like a fever that doesn’t break until the rains. Heat makes everybody cranky, irritable, and I suppose violent. April is the cruelest month, as they say.

This is the worst April in Sri Lanka’s history. I don’t mean that worse things haven’t happened—we’ve had pogroms, a tsunami, various insurrections, a good thirty years of war—I just mean this catastrophe is happening to all of Sri Lanka, all at once. No one is safe from this disaster. It affects every single home.

At a very fundamental level, the island has just fallen into the sea.

What Happened

Why did this happen? Many reasons, and one family (the Rajapaksas).

Sri Lanka was an ancient irrigation civilization and in modern times 50% of our electricity comes from water (hydro). However, after ‘liberalizing’ in the 1980s we stopped building anything useful. Instead we built giant generators that burn *ing oil for the rest of our needs. This has been a farce forever. Now it’s a tragedy.

Now we’re run out of oil for this generator, foreign capital flows have dried up, and the whole thing has been managed abysmally. The ruling family’s elder brother ran up the credit card a decade ago and now the younger brother is paying off those commercial bank loans instead of providing for our families.

And so the entire country has blackouts, every day, for hours at a time. The entire country waits in petrol and diesel queues. Everybody queues for cooking gas, that we cannot find. There are global problems, but we’re really suffering from the compounded corruption and idiocy of one family. Now we can’t sleep, we can’t move, we can’t eat.

And like I said, this effects everybody.

What Happened To Me

I am quite rich in Sri Lanka. We own a house, a car, I earn in dollars—a pittance to you abroad—but a small fortune to me. Previous crises have passed people like me by, disturbing our social media feeds and eliciting empathy, but this isn’t that. This is reality. We don’t have a generator, and even if we did, getting diesel isn’t easy. Everybody in the country uses energy, and we can feel it drain right out of our lives.

So our lights go out. Like every light in Sri Lanka. Our fans stop spinning, like every fan in this heat. Well, almost everybody. When I told my son that the President’s lights don’t go out, he screamed something that’d get him called up by the CID. That’s the sentiment that’s on the streets. Everybody, young and old, feels it. You can’t escape.

For once this is a general misery, affecting the poor the worst (obviously), but still hitting everybody. Last night we slept on the balcony, to avoid the heat, but then the mosquitoes came to eat. We can luckily afford food, but we have to carefully time when to cook it. My wife even planned a power cut menu for guests, dishes we didn’t have to heat. I somehow get the kids to school, but we have to borrow a petrol/electric car. Because finding diesel is an impossibility.

This isn’t actually new, just like the Niemöller poem, it finally ‘came for me’. While Tamils in the north were deprived of electricity for years, while grinding poverty has been chewing up people forever, and while Muslims have been persecuted recently, we never listened to these canaries in the coalmine. And so here we are, all *ing screaming.

Even rich people in apartments with elevators have run out of diesel now, leaving them to walk up 20 flights of stairs. Private schools have run out of diesel, leaving those kids to sweat it out with everyone else. Poorer families often cannot get their kids to school at all, let alone with a full stomach. It’s hard. It’s really hard. I can feel the tension in my own life, I can see it on every face. I love this country and we’ve fallen so far. It’s a disgrace.

What’s Happening

Any government that can’t provide power doesn’t have power. The current government has no clear Constitutional way to fall, but it’s already dead. These people can’t show their face in any village. Only the Indian foreign minister ever visited a petrol queue. Our own guys would get chased away.

For the first time in my life everybody hates the government. It’s not even a debate. Nobody is sleeping well. Nobody is eating well. Our children are all unhappy. We’re all unhappy. The country is just a spark away from revolution, which god knows could go many ways.

Yesterday unorganized, regular protesters marched towards the President’s House, about a kilometer from mine. This is a real bone of contention because he and his homies are exempted from power cuts, cut ahead in fuel queues, and laugh at our cooking gas problems.

These protestors were attacked with tear gas, water cannon, and truncheons, then called violent ‘extremists’. But like I said, we’re all extremists. We’re all that pissed off. We’re all in the same place. In the cruel heat of April, blood is rising and if it gets violent, honestly, so be it. Violence has been done to all of the people, every day. Why shouldn’t we resist the violence of the state?

What Happens Next

I don’t know what happens next. I’ve lived through and seen enough seeming revolutions to know that things often get worse. The most organized and funded group in Sri Lanka is the military, and that’d be the worst.

But whatever we’re doing now, everybody knows we can’t do it anymore. The ruling family running the place, they’ve simply got to go. Uncles, sons, in-laws, the whole lot of them. They can’t even distract us with racism anymore, we can’t see that **** in the dark.

Our only real hope this April is, as always, the monsoon rain. Only that can fill up our ancient reservoirs and our homegrown electricity flow again. This gives you a clue as to the type of development we needed but never got, producing things for ourselves, and building things we could export. Supporting peoples needs, not the greed of a few.

But that’s not the path we took, 40 years ago. And so we’re here, with the power going out. I mean it literally went out right now. I have to finish this and publish. We’re due for a revolution not in the sense that we wanted one, but in that our lives have just been flipped upside down. Whatever this is, we have to turn it over. If we don’t, this isolated island in the sea of global capitalism, we’ll simply drown.

 

Source: https://indica.medium.com/how-sri-lanka-has-fallen-into-darkness-9e2d76f071bd

[ravishingravi]

 

[BacktoCricaddict]

Dear India,

 

Please don't be tempted to see the Sri Lankan crisis as a means to gain some imaginary geopolitical glory.  Send humanitarian aid if needed and maybe cut some advantageous financial deals tied to the humanitarian aid, but please don't fall into the trap of annexation, invasion, nation-building, liberating "our people" just because some of them share a religion or language with India.  If any refugees cross the strait and land on India's shores, take care of them, but please don't go out of the way to liberate anyone.  As the US should've - but still doesn't seem to have - found out, and Russia is finding out the hard way, no matter how many theoretical advantages you have, military aggression is always lose-lose-lose.  So, please stay the hell away from it. 

 

Kindly,

A naive pacifist teacher

 

Note:  This is not in response to anyone here is particular, but a general response to some chatter I have seen on SM/group chats where people are recommending that NM do a Vlad and liberate the Hindus and such. 

Edited April 3, 2022 by BacktoCricaddict

[gattaca]

1 hour ago, BacktoCricaddict said:

Dear India,

 

Please don't be tempted to see the Sri Lankan crisis as a means to gain some imaginary geopolitical glory.  Send humanitarian aid if needed and maybe cut some advantageous financial deals tied to the humanitarian aid, but please don't fall into the trap of annexation, invasion, nation-building, liberating "our people" just because some of them share a religion or language with India.  If any refugees cross the strait and land on India's shores, take care of them, but please don't go out of the way to liberate anyone.  As the US should've - but still doesn't seem to have - found out, and Russia is finding out the hard way, no matter how many theoretical advantages you have, military aggression is always lose-lose-lose.  So, please stay the hell away from it. 

 

Kindly,

A naive pacifist teacher

 

Note:  This is not in response to anyone here is particular, but a general response to some chatter I have seen on SM/group chats where people are recommending that NM do a Vlad and liberate the Hindus and such. 

I think we learnt lesson from Rajiv Gandhi’s failed diplomacy and stupid decisions. India didn’t bother with Maldives as well when similar thing happened.

[beetle]

On 3/27/2022 at 4:18 PM, Serpico said:

They're already extremely popular in south. I'm surprised it hasn't caught up in the north

Delhi and Punjab now.

[Clarke]

1) Easter bombings by Islamic terrorists led to 20% decline in tourism (non-govt)

2) VAT cut by half as a populist measure hurt revenues (govt)

3) Covid pandemic destroyed tourism & economy (non-govt)

4) Fertilizer import ban, move to organic farming led to crop failures and massive inflation (govt)

 

 

 

 

[coffee_rules]

On 4/3/2022 at 8:39 AM, BacktoCricaddict said:

Dear India,

 

Please don't be tempted to see the Sri Lankan crisis as a means to gain some imaginary geopolitical glory.  Send humanitarian aid if needed and maybe cut some advantageous financial deals tied to the humanitarian aid, but please don't fall into the trap of annexation, invasion, nation-building, liberating "our people" just because some of them share a religion or language with India.  If any refugees cross the strait and land on India's shores, take care of them, but please don't go out of the way to liberate anyone.  As the US should've - but still doesn't seem to have - found out, and Russia is finding out the hard way, no matter how many theoretical advantages you have, military aggression is always lose-lose-lose.  So, please stay the hell away from it. 

 

Kindly,

A naive pacifist teacher

 

Note:  This is not in response to anyone here is particular, but a general response to some chatter I have seen on SM/group chats where people are recommending that NM do a Vlad and liberate the Hindus and such. 

Man, Vlad has done a number on you

[ravishingravi]

On 4/3/2022 at 2:39 PM, BacktoCricaddict said:

Dear India,

 

Please don't be tempted to see the Sri Lankan crisis as a means to gain some imaginary geopolitical glory.  Send humanitarian aid if needed and maybe cut some advantageous financial deals tied to the humanitarian aid, but please don't fall into the trap of annexation, invasion, nation-building, liberating "our people" just because some of them share a religion or language with India.  If any refugees cross the strait and land on India's shores, take care of them, but please don't go out of the way to liberate anyone.  As the US should've - but still doesn't seem to have - found out, and Russia is finding out the hard way, no matter how many theoretical advantages you have, military aggression is always lose-lose-lose.  So, please stay the hell away from it. 

 

Kindly,

A naive pacifist teacher

 

Note:  This is not in response to anyone here is particular, but a general response to some chatter I have seen on SM/group chats where people are recommending that NM do a Vlad and liberate the Hindus and such. 

 

Dear friend,

 

Quit those groups immediately. They have nothing to do with ground reality and certainly not precursor for policies of Indian govt. 

[mishra]

On 4/3/2022 at 1:39 PM, BacktoCricaddict said:

Dear India,

 

Please don't be tempted to see the Sri Lankan crisis as a means to gain some imaginary geopolitical glory.  Send humanitarian aid if needed and maybe cut some advantageous financial deals tied to the humanitarian aid, but please don't fall into the trap of annexation, invasion, nation-building, liberating "our people" just because some of them share a religion or language with India.  If any refugees cross the strait and land on India's shores, take care of them, but please don't go out of the way to liberate anyone.  As the US should've - but still doesn't seem to have - found out, and Russia is finding out the hard way, no matter how many theoretical advantages you have, military aggression is always lose-lose-lose.  So, please stay the hell away from it. 

 

Kindly,

A naive pacifist teacher

 

Note:  This is not in response to anyone here is particular, but a general response to some chatter I have seen on SM/group chats where people are recommending that NM do a Vlad and liberate the Hindus and such. 

Based on personal relationship within Indian establishments, I know India is trying its best. As this guy has cancelled his scheduled family holiday with us and spending all his time with SL establishment 

[G_B_]

One thing india can learn is atleast for electricity generation be self sufficient. 

 

We are still importing coal....

 

Its good there is a push towards renewables..but india need to ensure that it is not impacted by shocks to price of coal.

[ravishingravi]

13 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

One thing india can learn is atleast for electricity generation be self sufficient. 

 

We are still importing coal....

 

Its good there is a push towards renewables..but india need to ensure that it is not impacted by shocks to price of coal.

 

Nuclear..

[bharathh]

52 minutes ago, ravishingravi said:

 

Nuclear..

Nuclear plants cause other forms of pollution that can devastate the areas that they are based in. They have to be near rivers or large bodies of water that can become unusable due to the heat and waste generated. Given that water is at such a premium - not a long term viable option for India.

 

Best is to optimize renewable energy. Push should be towards solar and wind generators. Solar esp has a lot of potential in India - esp in places like the Deccan where large stretches of land are unusable for agriculture and solar plants will not impact the existing ecology. We need reliable grids that do not waste energy. Centralized generation of electricity in the deccan for example can help provide electricity to all parts of India. 

[ravishingravi]

30 minutes ago, bharathh said:

Nuclear plants cause other forms of pollution that can devastate the areas that they are based in. They have to be near rivers or large bodies of water that can become unusable due to the heat and waste generated. Given that water is at such a premium - not a long term viable option for India.

 

Best is to optimize renewable energy. Push should be towards solar and wind generators. Solar esp has a lot of potential in India - esp in places like the Deccan where large stretches of land are unusable for agriculture and solar plants will not impact the existing ecology. We need reliable grids that do not waste energy. Centralized generation of electricity in the deccan for example can help provide electricity to all parts of India. 

 

Nope not happening. Germany learnt it the hard way. Renewable is 30 years project. Till we get there, nuclear is lesser of the two evils. Europe will double down on it. 

[G_B_]

You still need to import nuclear fuel...we have coal reserves.

 

By all means have nuclear in the mix. But not more than 10%. Getting a mix of 50% coal and 50% renewables long term should be the goal.

 

Renewables (including hydro) are about 18% of our generation. Coal is 70%. This ratio needs to change with us stopping all imports.

 

For vehicular fuel we need a flex fuels in which ethanol/ methanol blends are the norm. 

[diga]

1 hour ago, G_B_ said:

You still need to import nuclear fuel...we have coal reserves.

 

By all means have nuclear in the mix. But not more than 10%. Getting a mix of 50% coal and 50% renewables long term should be the goal.

 

Renewables (including hydro) are about 18% of our generation. Coal is 70%. This ratio needs to change with us stopping all imports.

 

For vehicular fuel we need a flex fuels in which ethanol/ methanol blends are the norm. 

 

I dont know what happened to the Thorium story ... that research is probably dead

[LordPrabhzy]

On 4/3/2022 at 8:01 PM, Clarke said:

1) Easter bombings by Islamic terrorists led to 20% decline in tourism (non-govt)

2) VAT cut by half as a populist measure hurt revenues (govt)

3) Covid pandemic destroyed tourism & economy (non-govt)

4) Fertilizer import ban, move to organic farming led to crop failures and massive inflation (govt)

 

 

 

 

 

Duggal sahab AKA Rathee ji has used the same points in his video... but places more emphasis on the retaliatory riots against Muslims post Easter bombings by Islamic jihadis as the major cause... compared to the bombings themselves. Ok sure... "slow clap"..

[Clarke]

17 hours ago, LordPrabhzy said:

 

Duggal sahab AKA Rathee ji has used the same points in his video... but places more emphasis on the retaliatory riots against Muslims post Easter bombings by Islamic jihadis as the major cause... compared to the bombings themselves. Ok sure... "slow clap"..

 

Funny trend of people creating or believing narratives that suit their agenda. 

 

Some examples from the comments section of a leading news site:

 

"Sri Lanka was the first country in the neighborhood focused on alienating a major section of the population. But this does not lead to any improvement, just skews the priorities. That kind of thinking has now led to this."

 

"With the way the BJP is managing the economy, with unjustifiable expenses, and soaring fuel prices, day is not far when we will be in such a situation."

 

"Lanka got exactly what it asked for a strong leadership to oppress Tamils. They did get their top priority addressed"

 

"This is what happens when arrogant leaders of Srilanka side stepped India and embraced cunning and scoundrel China."

 

4 different agendas that have not much do with the problem at hand  It makes for fun reading at times.

 

[LordPrabhzy]

1 hour ago, Clarke said:

 

Funny trend of people creating or believing narratives that suit their agenda. 

 

Some examples from the comments section of a leading news site:

 

"Sri Lanka was the first country in the neighborhood focused on alienating a major section of the population. But this does not lead to any improvement, just skews the priorities. That kind of thinking has now led to this."

 

"With the way the BJP is managing the economy, with unjustifiable expenses, and soaring fuel prices, day is not far when we will be in such a situation."

 

"Lanka got exactly what it asked for a strong leadership to oppress Tamils. They did get their top priority addressed"

 

"This is what happens when arrogant leaders of Srilanka side stepped India and embraced cunning and scoundrel China."

 

4 different agendas that have not much do with the problem at hand  It makes for fun reading at times.

 

 

And whoever is parroting the "India should take over Nepal and SL to counter China"- the delusional state these whatsapp Uni BJP supporting uncles are in is laughable. There are better ways to covertly have influence in these countries than directly occupying them economically.

 

People have stopped thinking pragmatically and logically, esp in India

[G_B_]

Comment sections are taken over by lw anx rw fringe...

 

India should keep giving some money to keep sl nepal affloat. But the common sentiment in both countries is that chinese influence is bad.

 

Best to sit back and let nature take its course. Rajpaksa clan will have to face the consequences eventually.