India inching closer to being a top 5 global exporter - WORLD BANK UPDATE.

[G_B_]

Re the Dutch

 

While they do export a lot, a lot of them are re exporters through their ports like Rotterdam. This is similar to Hong Kong/Singapore. A lot of stuff manufactured in Germany ends up being exported to the world via Rotterdam. You can cut around 15-20% of the value of Netherlands and Belgium on account of that. If you look underneath the numbers you will see both of them run trade deficits with France (Belgium) and Germany (Netherlands). Its just goods passing through. Most UK exports to EU are also going through these countries, so the value of imports from Netherlands and Belgium is also high.

 

Its like Ireland being a super exporter purely cause major IT orgs are based there for tax purposes.

 

 

 

[rangeelaraja]

India will cross $1 trillion dollars exports within the next 4 years.

 

Reasons:

 

1) China has lot the cost advantage,  companies also want to diversify away from China.   India will benefit from it partially sharing the spoils with Vietnam, Indonesia and Bangladesh

 

2) I see alot of online- marketplace businesses flourishing over the internet where Indian service providers get paid by foreign customers for services especially in the field of education, taxation, accounting and other outsourced  activities.  I am most optimistic about this industry.

 

3) Indian indigenous automobile firms like Mahindra, TATA are getting close to international standard and growing in exports.

 

4) Productivity/Yield in farming will rise steadily.

 

[jf1gp_1]

1 hour ago, rangeelaraja said:

India will cross $1 trillion dollars exports within the next 4 years.

 

Reasons:

 

1) China has lot the cost advantage,  companies also want to diversify away from China.   India will benefit from it partially sharing the spoils with Vietnam, Indonesia and Bangladesh

 

2) I see alot of online- marketplace businesses flourishing over the internet where Indian service providers get paid by foreign customers for services especially in the field of education, taxation, accounting and other outsourced  activities.  I am most optimistic about this industry.

 

3) Indian indigenous automobile firms like Mahindra, TATA are getting close to international standard and growing in exports.

 

4) Productivity/Yield in farming will rise steadily.

 

The way salaries and fuel has rocketed in last 12 months both material and service cost have gone up and how long will we have that advantage

[kepler37b]

 

One has to see what kind of things we are exporting.

 

Is it the water guzzling farm products/ environment destroying chemical products/ Pharma products?

 

 

 

[kepler37b]

16 hours ago, jf1gp_1 said:

The way salaries and fuel has rocketed in last 12 months both material and service cost have gone up and how long will we have that advantage

India is a unique country where mediocre quality  is ultra  expensive due to exorbitant taxation and extreme cartelization. 

 

 

[ravishingravi]

I do believe that 10-12 trillion $ GDP by 2030 is fairly realistic with 20% plus coming from exports. 

[G_B_]

I think India will be around $6 trillion by 2030.

 

 

[dial_100]

10 hours ago, ravishingravi said:

I do believe that 10-12 trillion $ GDP by 2030 is fairly realistic with 20% plus coming from exports. 

 

15% growth for consecutive 8 years? We would be lucky and happy if we get 7-8% of growth. 6T looks achievable.

 

I think we will be 5.5T at worse or 6.3T at best by 2030. Remember, we should be mindful that India's PPP gives us lot of comfort globally. 

 

[rangeelaraja]

2 hours ago, dial_100 said:

 

15% growth for consecutive 8 years? We would be lucky and happy if we get 7-8% of growth. 6T looks achievable.

 

I think we will be 5.5T at worse or 6.3T at best by 2030. Remember, we should be mindful that India's PPP gives us lot of comfort globally. 

 

 

You are mixing nominal growth with real growth. 

 

10 -11 % nominal growth for India is par for course with about 4-5 % inflation.

 

If INR does not depreciate much against the USD.... apply rule of 72 to see when doubling happens..... 72/10.  In 7 years nominal GDP should double for India  at the bare minimum.

 

Which means we get to about $ 7T in 2029 and $ 7.5T  in 2030.

 

The key is a strong INR.  If there is massive demand to invest in India over the next few years....INR could appreciate against the USD and we could see much higher GDP figures.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2022 by rangeelaraja

[ravishingravi]

2 hours ago, dial_100 said:

 

15% growth for consecutive 8 years? We would be lucky and happy if we get 7-8% of growth. 6T looks achievable.

 

I think we will be 5.5T at worse or 6.3T at best by 2030. Remember, we should be mindful that India's PPP gives us lot of comfort globally. 

 

Yeah I am looking at nominal. CAGR of 12-15% isn’t unrealistic. 

[ravishingravi]

 

[Vijy]

moving toward this threshold and crossing it is a big milestone

[G_B_]

14 hours ago, rangeelaraja said:

 

You are mixing nominal growth with real growth. 

 

10 -11 % nominal growth for India is par for course with about 4-5 % inflation.

 

If INR does not depreciate much against the USD.... apply rule of 72 to see when doubling happens..... 72/10.  In 7 years nominal GDP should double for India  at the bare minimum.

 

Which means we get to about $ 7T in 2029 and $ 7.5T  in 2030.

 

The key is a strong INR.  If there is massive demand to invest in India over the next few years....INR could appreciate against the USD and we could see much higher GDP figures.

 

 

 

 

 

Too strong an inr we will lose our competition edge in exports 

 

 

[ravishingravi]

1 hour ago, G_B_ said:

 

Too strong an inr we will lose our competition edge in exports 

 

 

 

Conventional thinking would suggest you are right. Look at the Rupee and exports over last 2-3 years. It defies conventional thought process. The Rupee should ideally depreciate by 3-5% every year. It is pretty much stable even with RBI preventing any appreciation. What does that tell you ? And in this scenario, India has achieved record exports. If Covid has taught us anything, it is that pricing might be one factor and not the only factor in the future inter country trade.

[G_B_]

6 minutes ago, ravishingravi said:

 

Conventional thinking would suggest you are right. Look at the Rupee and exports over last 2-3 years. It defies conventional thought process. The Rupee should ideally depreciate by 3-5% every year. It is pretty much stable even with RBI preventing any appreciation. What does that tell you ? And in this scenario, India has achieved record exports. If Covid has taught us anything, it is that pricing might be one factor and not the only factor in the future inter country trade.

 

I generally agree that there are several components to boosting exports.

 

The push towards exports of non primary goods needs to be appreciated even through primary agri goods have been a star in this export drive.

 

However, I feel politically BJP will want to generate as many jobs as possible from this point and ensure that a competitive advantage is maintained.