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Maharashtra Political shift

dial_100

By dial_100
in Chit Chat

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What would this new group do?  

9 members have voted

  1. 1. What will Eknaath Shinde group do?

    • Claim Shivsena party ownership and support BJP to form a new Govt.
      6
    • Claim Shivsena party ownership and demand CM post in the new BJP lead Govt.
      2
    • Form a new party and join BJP in the new Govt.
      1
    • Claim Shivsena party ownership and support MVA to form a new Govt.
      0
    • Claim Shivsena party ownership and demand CM post in the existing MVA lead Govt.
      0
    • Form a new party and join MVA in the new Govt.
      0
    • Cause re-election by not opting for any of the viable options
      0

Recommended Posts

jigjig Veteran

jigjig

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

Don't know how much to trust...if they were giving 200 to NDA, then good news, right now  anybody's game.

There is one electoral edge poll which gave 150 to MVA

 

 

 

 

diga Grand Master

diga

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, G_B_ said:

If overall vote % crosses 62% nda will benefit.

 

But 62% does not tell the picture. 55% + needed in turnout specific Mumbai.

I am hearing close to 60% or so.. any updates from ground? 

G_B_ Veteran

G_B_

Posted
Posted

These exit polls are pure time-pass.

 

Turnout should be adjusted upwards and might touch 66%

 

Looking at the turnout in Mumbai. I see gains or improvements in Mumbai suburban areas. But overall Mumbai figure is below the benchmark of 55% I think NDA needs to sweep. I feel NDA will improve performance in Mumbai from LS. But not as much as some of these exit polls are saying. The areas surrounding Mumbai have seen a big spike. Places like Thane Kalyan Palghar etc. I expect NDA to sweep these regions

 

I also note that the exit polls appear to make this a binary race. Independents have always held sway in Maharashtra. I expect the independents to make a much bigger impact than the exit polls have shown. The only person that I see who has ackowledged this is Sriram for Times Now. 

 

As I have stated before, I think NDA and UPA etc are just sham fronts. Ideally BJP needs to be 85+ with Congress sub 50. That is a good outcome. Maharashtra will remain a post poll story.

 

 

G_B_ Veteran

G_B_

Posted
Posted

If "NDA" do win and the coalition goes onto form the government (big if)

 

A lot of focus is going to be taken up by ladki behan schemes in RW circles. Dont underestimate the impact of SC sub categorisation BJP proosed in Haryana which is causing a stir in the SC community in Maharashtra. Historically the ambedkarite neo buddhist population (around 7% of total pop but dont quote me) had taken over the SC representation in education and jobs. This group alongside muslims forms the bedrock of anti BJP politics in the state. 

 

In the LS SC in general block voted for UPA. However, if BJP+ especially do well in places like Viderbha etc then I think it will be on the back of fragmentation in the non amberkerite SC vote towards NDA.

 

 

G_B_ Veteran

G_B_

Posted
Posted

This Axis Gupta is coming out with some extreme numbers. From what I can see in Jharkhand and Maharashtra.

 

NDA 189 UPA 90 as per Axis. Not even in the 2014 election did the BJP+ get this or with a united sena in 2019....the Marathwada numbers in favour of NDA dont look right to me.

 

I think Guptaji wants one of his bets to work. Jharkhand has predicted a sweep for UPA against the grain of other pollsters. Maharashtra has predicted a sweep with the grain other pollsters.

 

Its a high risk gamble. Marathwada and the new OBC party in Jharkhand. Still better than Cvoter with 20 "undecided" in an exit poll of Jharkhand...

 

 

 

 

randomGuy Grand Master

randomGuy

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, G_B_ said:

This Axis Gupta is coming out with some extreme numbers. From what I can see in Jharkhand and Maharashtra.

 

NDA 189 UPA 90 as per Axis. Not even in the 2014 election did the BJP+ get this or with a united sena in 2019....the Marathwada numbers in favour of NDA dont look right to me.

 

I think Guptaji wants one of his bets to work. Jharkhand has predicted a sweep for UPA against the grain of other pollsters. Maharashtra has predicted a sweep with the grain other pollsters.

 

Its a high risk gamble. Marathwada and the new OBC party in Jharkhand. Still better than Cvoter with 20 "undecided" in an exit poll of Jharkhand...

 

 

 

 

Iske muh me gud (Maharashtra) gobar(jharkhand):cantstop:

Mariyam Grand Master

Mariyam

Posted
Posted
On 11/20/2024 at 9:14 PM, randomGuy said:

I think without ncp Ajit Pawar, NDA would have won more seats.

How?

 

NCP Ajit Pawar will win the NDA seats in Western Maharashtra where historically the BJP/ either of the Shiv Senas have been weak.

coffee_rules Grand Master

coffee_rules

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Mariyam said:

How?

 

NCP Ajit Pawar will win the NDA seats in Western Maharashtra where historically the BJP/ either of the Shiv Senas have been weak.

But he will jump ship and do ghar wapsi  anytime

mishra Grand Master

mishra

Posted
Posted

Maharshtra elections are just to make people happy. Everyone probbly, knows irrespective of who they vote for, CM and Government will be decided from centre

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