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Gujarat and HP election !!!


velu

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8 hours ago, bharathh said:

Since 1985

Pretty funny to look at the results

 

       Cong | BJP
1985 |  58  | 7
1990 |  9   | 46
1993 |  52  | 8
1998 |  31  | 31
2003 |  43  | 16
2007 |  23  | 41
2012 |  36  | 26
2017 |  26  | 36

 

The margin keeps decreasing though. Might be a close one next few years. TN usually is a rout for a defeated party.

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2 hours ago, coffee_rules said:

Even in case of routs in TN, the vote percentage diff is very little, like 2-3 %

Wow. How is that even possible lol. How can a switch happen with such a small percentage. Unless there are party loyalists and that important independent voters

Edited by gattaca
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5 hours ago, randomGuy said:

On TV, One could hear 'mera rang de basanti chola' playing in aap office after Mcd win which is a song in reference to bhagat singh who got Martyred for country, by death sentence in jail... meaning they say they draw inspiration/similarities from his sacrifice in present era....n here we have a aap minister jailed for prima facie corruption, who is incidentally also the jail minister (lol) , having massages from rapists inside jail, living luxurious life...

This is the inspiration they took from bhagat singh...the gall...

Bhagwant Mann is big follower of Bhagat Singh. He removed pics of Maharaja Ranjit Singh and replaced it with Bhagat Singh and Ambedkar in CM office Imagine some removing pics of Shivaji in Maharashtra.

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21 hours ago, Singh bling said:

Nehru could had said the same thing that nobody is buying Hindutva ideology of Jan Sangh in 1960. .Politics is not so easy in short term. It takes years and years to establish themselves.

Because congress itself represented hindutva at that time.

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21 hours ago, ravishingravi said:

 

Massive shifts happening. BJP also won muslim majority states in Gujarat.

 

wont last...low turnout. Azam khan directed muslim voters to stay away to send a message to A Yadav. 

 

Even the seat they lost to RLD was impacted by low turnout.

 

I would say BJP must better suited to gaining Mainpuri. Only reason Dimple won was because of sympathy wave for MSY. That wont be there in 2024.

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Re Guj

 

BJP gains in vote share was a combination of lower turnouts in rural areas in relation to urban areas+a marked increase in vote share in urban seats which were already strongholds. 

 

The seat share is a combination of non BJP voters staying at home + AAP cutting Cong votes. Both 2017 and 2022 are not reflective of the natural mandate which is BJP 110 to 120 seats.

 

Re HP

 

Harimpur let the BJP down....BJP was expected to do well in Mandi and not so well in Kangra.  Not as simple blaming the Dhumals (Anurag thakur). JP Nadda also need to be hauled up as to why his candidate selection is so poor. BJP lost the Ls seat in Mandi (where they have won 10/10 in assembly) in a bypoll due to extremely poor candidate selection by Nadda.

 

Nadda simply needs to go when his term is up in 2023. I think he serves as a Brahmin face which aids the BJP nationally. But he is a poor politician who cannot deliver his patch. It should be noted that Anurag Thakur ran a very good BJP campaign in western up. I think he was not named CM candidate and that has caused this issues. Had he been named CM candidate BJP would have won.

 

watch the space in HP. There are two major Congress factions. I suspect if Pratibha Singh (wife of Virbhadra) is not made CM (or her son who is an MLA is not made CM) then she might form her own party.  Congress will be wise to have somebody like Shukla keeping an eye on the HP unit. They did not do with with UK and Bahuguna rebelled which resulted in near permanent loss.

 

Re MCD

 

This was a needed loss to take the party forward. Sheila Dixit was wise to split the MCD into 3 parts. It kept the BJP divided. With 12 councillors nominated the BJP will wait for cracks in AAP to develop for a year and then make their move n 2024. (the 12 cannot vote this election).

 

The good news for the BJP is that with Delhi becoming more bipolar they are breaching 40%. They will need to get 46% of the votes to win either the MCD or the assembly. From this base they need a solid face. A gamble needs to be taken with Kapil Mishra. If he can get 43% or move it is a move that will pay off.

 

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On 12/9/2022 at 7:07 AM, G_B_ said:

Re Guj

 

BJP gains in vote share was a combination of lower turnouts in rural areas in relation to urban areas+a marked increase in vote share in urban seats which were already strongholds. 

 

The seat share is a combination of non BJP voters staying at home + AAP cutting Cong votes. Both 2017 and 2022 are not reflective of the natural mandate which is BJP 110 to 120 seats.

 

Re HP

 

Harimpur let the BJP down....BJP was expected to do well in Mandi and not so well in Kangra.  Not as simple blaming the Dhumals (Anurag thakur). JP Nadda also need to be hauled up as to why his candidate selection is so poor. BJP lost the Ls seat in Mandi (where they have won 10/10 in assembly) in a bypoll due to extremely poor candidate selection by Nadda.

 

Nadda simply needs to go when his term is up in 2023. I think he serves as a Brahmin face which aids the BJP nationally. But he is a poor politician who cannot deliver his patch. It should be noted that Anurag Thakur ran a very good BJP campaign in western up. I think he was not named CM candidate and that has caused this issues. Had he been named CM candidate BJP would have won

 

watch the space in HP. There are two major Congress factions. I suspect if Pratibha Singh (wife of Virbhadra) is not made CM (or her son who is an MLA is not made CM) then she might form her own party.  Congress will be wise to have somebody like Shukla keeping an eye on the HP unit. They did not do with with UK and Bahuguna rebelled which resulted in near permanent loss.


Sukhwindar Singh Sukhu is the CM. 
https://twitter.com/ani/status/1601533092501786624?s=46&t=1LR7jGUaFQUt0UeVTX0q2Q

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3 hours ago, Under_Score said:

Cross over?  LOL..... More like bought over.

 

Here is the funny aspect of this garbage filthy Indian politics......Gujarat has been a BJP state for 27 years. This time around, a new party AAP makes an entry....35 Lac Gujarat voters decide & wish for a change & choose AAP ( 5 seats won )......Now the kachra purchasing game has started :winky:  

Suppose all the five AAP Gujju Netas go back to BJP.......Will it mean that 35 lac Gujjus have been mocked by this circus politics? They voted for AAP... now they will be back under BJP....:laugh:

So, Aap leaders are bikau. :phehe:

Kejriwal says they are beacon of honesty and have no interest in earning money through corruption. 

BJP, Congress says they are not corrupt but they don't claim to be the only one who are not corrupt unlike Mr Nautankilal.

The point is AAP is just another political arty with the same "sanskar" as BJP, Congress. They employ the same means of lying, minority appeasement, populism, non transparent funding etc. These are all the qualities of established political parties like BJP or Congress which AAP has even in infancy. One can only shudder to think what they will become if they become a truly national party.

 

BTW, 35 lakh votes is a joke especially since Congress/opposition is non existent in that state. When one political party rules for a state for as many as 27 years continously there is bound to be sizeable anti-incumbency no matter how good/bad ruling party has been. Even then AAP failed miserably to capture those votes.

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The BIKAU thing is really pathetic & a blot on Indian democracy...  I am surprised there isn't a rule to stop this non sense in our constitution & is totally against people's wishes.   It's like People are forced to vote for crooks & system is rigged that way. 

Democracy wasn't made for India or Indians. 

 

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6 hours ago, Under_Score said:

Many of the Indian politicians are Bikau, but the real culprits are the ones who offer money.  Sad part is that it is the tax payer's money which is being flouted for the greed of the politicians. Most recently same thing happened in the Maharshtra Govt.

 

If BJP needed 5 seats to form a Govt, then the desperation would be understood, but winning 156/185 and still going after 5 seats of AAP means that BJP just doesn't want AAP to set it's foot in Gujarat despite winning a very meager share of 5 seats.  Seems like a decision filled with fear & hate. World's largest Democrazy :facepalm:

 

AAP candidates are first timers na? They were going to change politics? Why should they be affected by money? So they are bikau in the first place which makes whatever AAP says about it's candidates to be null and void in the first place. Khattar imaandar lol.

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On 12/10/2022 at 2:10 PM, coffee_rules said:

 

 

Its a good choice.  A grassroot worker who is 58 (young by political standards). A bit surprising that that both the CM and Deputy CM (i assume there will be a meaty ministry on offer) are from the same region But Agnihotri is respected by all factions and being a Brahmin, is not a Thakur. Shimla which is a traditional bastion of the Congress has been ignored. We need to wait for the ministry allocation.

 

All eyes on Pratibha Singh. She will wait to see what her son is given in terms of ministry. Her son wants the Finance ministry. She will be mindful that Mandi lok sabha 2024 she will lose badly. She won due to sympathy for Virbhadra Singh + no modi impact + poor candidate selection by Nadda. Two of those factors simply not present.

 

In general, I see a move by both Cong and BJP to move away from the Virbhadra Singh vs Dhumal dynamic which has persisted in the state for the last 20 years. 

 

 

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19 hours ago, Lone Wolf said:

The BIKAU thing is really pathetic & a blot on Indian democracy...  I am surprised there isn't a rule to stop this non sense in our constitution & is totally against people's wishes.   It's like People are forced to vote for crooks & system is rigged that way. 

Democracy wasn't made for India or Indians. 

 

Actually, AAP was expected/supposed to win in Surat(East North South, atleast one of them) and not those unknown remote constituencies. And it failed miserably in Surat. Those people who contested on AAP ticket and won in remote zones were most likely similar to likes of independents who can win without allegience to a political party.

Edited by mishra
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24 minutes ago, mishra said:

Actually, AAP was expected/supposed to win in Surat(East North South, atleast one of them) and not those unknown remote constituencies. And it failed miserably in Surat. Those people who contested on AAP ticket and won in remote zones were most likely similar to likes of independents who can win without allegience to a political party.

Tukkka lag gya then I guess...  

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