Tamil Nadu Politics heating up

[G_B_]

^ quite the opposite. Bjp needs this guy to split the minority vote.

 

Can open doors for seat conversion.

 

 

[G_B_]

Vijay should be 10% to 20% of the vote.

 

What bjp need is for him to string up an alliance with seeman and a few other regionals.

[vvvslaxman]

8 minutes ago, coffee_rules said:

Actor Vijay Joseph announced a new political party based on Tande Periyar, Anna and Ambedkar. Are you surprised? Big setback to Hindutva in TN?

 

 

 

 

WIth or without vijay  Hindutva will never  work here. It is largely caste based. You cannot polarize people with religion when people from same religion fight with each other. So you cannot excpet large scale brainwashing happening in TN like you see in some of the other states.

[diga]

5 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

^ quite the opposite. Bjp needs this guy to split the minority vote.

 

Can open doors for seat conversion.

 

Specifically mentioned that idealogical enemy is BJP & DMK being political enemy... I believe it can go both ways on how they fight the elections

[G_B_]

6 minutes ago, diga said:

 

Specifically mentioned that idealogical enemy is BJP & DMK being political enemy... I believe it can go both ways on how they fight the elections

 

Bjp wont mind him attacking them....

 

For bjp to grow admk has to collapse.

 

 

[G_B_]

Re vijay he is expected to draw out youth+ christian + parayar

[coffee_rules]

16 minutes ago, vvvslaxman said:

 

WIth or without vijay  Hindutva will never  work here. It is largely caste based. You cannot polarize people with religion when people from same religion fight with each other. So you cannot excpet large scale brainwashing happening in TN like you see in some of the other states.

Brainwashing is caste-based society and keep crying discrimination. Hindutva preaches casteless society, one day it will happen. As Udayanidhi says - Just wait and watch!

[vvvslaxman]

19 minutes ago, coffee_rules said:

Brainwashing is caste-based society and keep crying discrimination. Hindutva preaches casteless society, one day it will happen. As Udayanidhi says - Just wait and watch!

Caste based is not brainwashing. It just happens automatically. Hinduism is incredibly diverse. Interpretation varies differently. My father is so much religious that he worshipped a samiyar for a specific reason. But me and my brother never liked any of these godman exploiting people's struggles to their advantage.  So even within one family people are not in sync. You are talking about bringing entire state on page. Never gonna happen. Many will dismiss as arhaic, regressive and outdated. My father is as religious as anyone can be. But he absolute despises BJP.

Edited October 29, 2024 by vvvslaxman

[G_B_]

32 minutes ago, vvvslaxman said:

Caste based is not brainwashing. It just happens automatically. Hinduism is incredibly diverse. Interpretation varies differently. My father is so much religious that he worshipped a samiyar for a specific reason. But me and my brother never liked any of these godman exploiting people's struggles to their advantage.  So even within one family people are not in sync. You are talking about bringing entire state on page. Never gonna happen. Many will dismiss as arhaic, regressive and outdated. My father is as religious as anyone can be. But he absolute despises BJP.

 

Kanyakumari district is heavily religiously polarised (hindus bjp) and christians (dmk+ cong). Why is this the case? Last I checked its part of tn right?

 

Your focusing too much on your personal obesvations than secondary data.

 

Bjp operates in places like bihar which are much more caste oriented than tn. 

 

As things stand i think its fair to say bjp has 6 to 8% vote share in assembly and 8 to 10% in lok sabha. 

 

 

 

 

[vvvslaxman]

15 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

 

Kanyakumari district is heavily religiously polarised (hindus bjp) and christians (dmk+ cong). Why is this the case? Last I checked its part of tn right?

 

Your focusing too much on your personal obesvations than secondary data.

 

Bjp operates in places like bihar which are much more caste oriented than tn. 

 

As things stand i think its fair to say bjp has 6 to 8% vote share in assembly and 8 to 10% in lok sabha. 

 

 

 

 

 

But TN never identified itself as "Hindu" state at any point.  Christians also belong to a caste. just remember. I have studied with a lot of nadar christians. Nadar charistians never got along with schedule caste/tribe guys. Always fight between them.  You are talking about handful of people.  BJP needs a very very strong alliance without which there won't be any traction for decades. Forget about TN. Once  Modi is gone BJP will struggle to find their footing in other parts of country as well. How long you can use religion to buy votes? Not very long.

[bowl_out]

1 hour ago, vvvslaxman said:

Caste based is not brainwashing. It just happens automatically. Hinduism is incredibly diverse. Interpretation varies differently. My father is so much religious that he worshipped a samiyar for a specific reason. But me and my brother never liked any of these godman exploiting people's struggles to their advantage.  So even within one family people are not in sync. You are talking about bringing entire state on page. Never gonna happen. Many will dismiss as arhaic, regressive and outdated. My father is as religious as anyone can be. But he absolute despises BJP.

 

The funny part is that these Periyarist parties who claim to fight for a casteless society are the most casteist people that I have ever met

[vvvslaxman]

Just now, bowl_out said:

 

The funny part is that these Periyarist parties who claim to fight for a casteless society are the most casteist people that I have ever met

 

Casteless society is a pipe dream. 

[G_B_]

44 minutes ago, vvvslaxman said:

 

But TN never identified itself as "Hindu" state at any point.  Christians also belong to a caste. just remember. I have studied with a lot of nadar christians. Nadar charistians never got along with schedule caste/tribe guys. Always fight between them.  You are talking about handful of people.  BJP needs a very very strong alliance without which there won't be any traction for decades. Forget about TN. Once  Modi is gone BJP will struggle to find their footing in other parts of country as well. How long you can use religion to buy votes? Not very long.

 

The bjp has been on an upward trajectory overall even pre modi.

 

No political party in history of india for past 3 decades has expanded its footprint consistently apart from bjp.

 

The dmk and admk cant even do anything in tamil majority puduchery (which bjp governs in alliance).

 

People said wb did not do religious politics in the 00s, bjp would never gain traction....bjp is now the main opposition.

 

Bjp supposedly was dead and buried in odisha yet is now ruling the state.

 

There will always be a right wing pole in any political state and w left wing pole. Bjp's political challenge comes from the right and not the left. 

 

[vvvslaxman]

13 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

 

The bjp has been on an upward trajectory overall even pre modi.

 

No political party in history of india for past 3 decades has expanded its footprint consistently apart from bjp.

 

The dmk and admk cant even do anything in tamil majority puduchery (which bjp governs in alliance).

 

People said wb did not do religious politics in the 00s, bjp would never gain traction....bjp is now the main opposition.

 

Bjp supposedly was dead and buried in odisha yet is now ruling the state.

 

There will always be a right wing pole in any political state and w left wing pole. Bjp's political challenge comes from the right and not the left. 

 

 

 

There is no right wing, left wing in TN.  Both parties have similar social ideologies. Only reason BJP is finding some votes is due to alliance and gradual disintegration of AIADMK. Otherwise they won't get anywhere.  There is this blind faith that all "Hindus" will vote for BJP blindly. That is a very very hard sell here. Why did BJP lose in Ayodhya? THey won some extra percentage in TN. THey lost a lot of votes elsewhere right? We cannot use these numbers and extrapolate.

[vvvslaxman]

5 minutes ago, Vicks57 said:

Biggest losers thanks to Vijay's entry:

 

1. NTK - (ideology: Tamil Nationalism)

 

              One of the few parties that is somewhat sound ideologically apart from DMK. NTK was always thought of as an alternative to DMK and ADMK. Has 7-8 percent vote share. Unless they join hands with vijay in 2026, they will be forgotten soon.

 

 

2. BJP - (Ideology: Hindutva)

 

               Since their ideology is new in TN, it was considered an alternative to both DMK and ADMK. Most of BJP's political mileage in TN is based on the DMK's supposed indifference to hindu festivals and culture. Vijay is gonna take their votes. Annamalai is simply not that popular like North Indians believe.

 

 

3. ADMK - (Ideology - supposedly Dravidian)

  

                A lot of people believe ADMK is a Dravidian party. Only thing they have in common with Dravidian ideology is that they split from DMK. ADMK always worked under a superstar figurehead like MGR. Jayalalitha wrestled the power from MGR's wife after his death. ADMK guys do not have ideology in reality. EPS is the only figurehead with no popularity in the history of ADMK. MGR and Jayalalitha were actors anyway. Vijay is a superstar actor. So ADMK is also under threat.

 

 

 

Annamalai is a conman. someone who conned even BJP lol He will take all the money and say "I tried".

[G_B_]

13 minutes ago, vvvslaxman said:

 

 

There is no right wing, left wing in TN.  Both parties have similar social ideologies. Only reason BJP is finding some votes is due to alliance and gradual disintegration of AIADMK. Otherwise they won't get anywhere.  There is this blind faith that all "Hindus" will vote for BJP blindly. That is a very very hard sell here. Why did BJP lose in Ayodhya? THey won some extra percentage in TN. THey lost a lot of votes elsewhere right? We cannot use these numbers and extrapolate.

 

So by your own logic, bjp does not need all hindu votes to govern in a westminster parliamentary system. They just need sufficient Hindu votes. They won haryana with 40% of vote. Which means 50% of hindus voted bjp and 50% did not. Did not stop the bjp from having their best ever performance in the state.

 

Bjp has been governing Gujarat for more than 2 decades with 48 to 52% of total votes which translates to around 63 to 65% of the hindu vote.

 

In case you have missed it, in this current growth phase bjp is targetting specific castes in tn. I dont understand how this translates to pan hindu policy? 

 

The nadar hindus down south were specifically targetted to turn kk into a bipolar contest. 

 

The nda alliance pushed admk to third in multiple seats down south and in the delta based on dewar poleraisation.

 

 

 

 

[G_B_]

14 minutes ago, Vicks57 said:

Biggest losers thanks to Vijay's entry:

 

1. NTK - (ideology: Tamil Nationalism)

 

              One of the few parties that is somewhat sound ideologically apart from DMK. NTK was always thought of as an alternative to DMK and ADMK. Has 7-8 percent vote share. Unless they join hands with vijay in 2026, they will be forgotten soon.

 

 

2. BJP - (Ideology: Hindutva)

 

               Since their ideology is new in TN, it was considered an alternative to both DMK and ADMK. Most of BJP's political mileage in TN is based on the DMK's supposed indifference to hindu festivals and culture. Vijay is gonna take their votes. Annamalai is simply not that popular like North Indians believe.

 

 

3. ADMK - (Ideology - supposedly Dravidian)

  

                A lot of people believe ADMK is a Dravidian party. Only thing they have in common with Dravidian ideology is that they split from DMK. ADMK always worked under a superstar figurehead like MGR. Jayalalitha wrestled the power from MGR's wife after his death. ADMK guys do not have ideology in reality. EPS is the only figurehead with no popularity in the history of ADMK. MGR and Jayalalitha were actors anyway. Vijay is a superstar actor. So ADMK is also under threat.

 

 

 

Lol dmk will be biggest losers. 

 

Analysts like Mani have been very vocal about that.

[vvvslaxman]

2 minutes ago, Vicks57 said:

 

Yeah BJP's Annamalai is such a conman that he conned his own party.

 

He has been looting the funds given to him from BJP for a long time. 

 

There is a running joke among Dravidians(DMK supporters) that Tamils are proud of Annamalai because he (a tamil) is conning the BJP.

 

I usually refrain from talking about Annamalai because he has such a beautiful name and I am devoted to Lord Shiva. 

 

So I feel guilty thrashing BJP Annamalai's name.

 

Annamalai's education and experience as IPS is not materialising into progressive politics. He falls at the feet of every conman baba I know.

 

 

 

He is as fake as they come.  The drama he staged after the loss was hilarious.

[G_B_]

1 minute ago, Vicks57 said:

 

Right now it looks like Udhay vs Vijay which is what Vijay is hoping for.

 

Udhay has the charisma of chalkboard. 

 

If it is DMK vs TVK, it means TVK has essentially replaced NTK, BJP. ADMK may survive albeit with less power. ADMK might survive by teaming up with TVK. But it would be less powerful.

 

He will debut with 10 to 20%, no more

[G_B_]

2 minutes ago, vvvslaxman said:

 

He is as fake as they come.  The drama he staged after the loss was hilarious.

Pushed admk to third in their stronghold of coimbatore in ls..no mean feat.

 

I am sure Velumani of the admk is not feeling that he is a fruad by any means..