BJP completes 9 years in centre - how have they performed?

[Nikhil_cric]

India has to massively increase social sector spending on women's education, healthcare , nutrition etc. Especially Eastern UP, Bihar and Jharkhand where such policies are extremely important going forward. 

 

Jobless growth is a reality and any government(not just BJP) will struggle to create high paying jobs in the future. 

 

Especially with the AI revolution underway , the so called demographic could rapidly turn into a demographic nightmare. 

 

Programmes like Make in India have not achieved anything vis a vis the hype in 2014. Demonetisation failed in its stated aim of recapturing black money as noted by the RBI itself. 

 

 

[someone]

They have resolved or resolving century old issues, be it Ram Mandir, Kashmir, or basic necessities of people. Be it electricity, water or housing, the numbers and impact is growing and visible. Also, strength respect strength, and there has been growing infrastructure both within the country and on the borders. The impact is now India is a much stronger voice in the world. Unlike previous governments, they have focused on big long term projects and new ideas, new people and leaders.

 

Many people don't remember pre-2014 situation, where economic was precarious, and democracy was non-existent. BJP never got say in any news discussion or narratives, and it was only one single mainstream narrative.

 

 

[someone]

On 6/4/2023 at 10:07 PM, Nikhil_cric said:

India has to massively increase social sector spending on women's education, healthcare , nutrition etc. Especially Eastern UP, Bihar and Jharkhand where such policies are extremely important going forward. 

 

Jobless growth is a reality and any government(not just BJP) will struggle to create high paying jobs in the future. 

 

Especially with the AI revolution underway , the so called demographic could rapidly turn into a demographic nightmare. 

 

Programmes like Make in India have not achieved anything vis a vis the hype in 2014. Demonetisation failed in its stated aim of recapturing black money as noted by the RBI itself. 

 

 

 

Rather than jobs, I am concerned about the education, or the lack of quality. Education should make one less-reliant, and more independent, skillful and confident, yet our people foolishly still expect government do provide them all. We need job creators, not seekers.

 

I have also interviewed some graduates, who were horrible and ill-prepared, wondered how some actually even got their degree.  So we have quantity, but the quality is bad in general. Big issues about our education system and institutions.

 

Also, the 90s and 2000s are the 1st major female graduates of India who are actually looking to work, and thus the workforce supply has increased. This is one major difference now. Also think traditionally, our unemployment stats didn't even take into account of the females.

[diga]

On 6/5/2023 at 9:52 PM, someone said:

Many people don't remember pre-2014 situation, where economic was precarious, and democracy was non-existent. BJP never got say in any news discussion or narratives, and it was only one single mainstream narrative.

Aam Aadmi party came to existence in 2013 only because of massive corruption at all levels.. 

[BlueBlood]

Can't post honest opinions here as it risks being put in Jail.

 

If Rahul Gandhi the leader of opposition is disbarred and can even be put in Jail for silly comments lots of other politicians have made, then what hope is there for common man to even voice their opinions.

 

Ever since corporate (Ambani & Adani) buyout of all legacy media, even the news media is highly partisan and not honest.

 

I don't care if progress is made or not if basic freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom of press and freedom to express is indirectly curtailed.

 

A true Democracy will never prosper. Might as well go fully fascist like Russia or Communist like China, why even pretend to be a true democracy. 

[Nikhil_cric]

On 6/5/2023 at 10:03 PM, someone said:

 

Rather than jobs, I am concerned about the education, or the lack of quality. Education should make one less-reliant, and more independent, skillful and confident, yet our people foolishly still expect government do provide them all. We need job creators, not seekers.

 

I have also interviewed some graduates, who were horrible and ill-prepared, wondered how some actually even got their degree.  So we have quantity, but the quality is bad in general. Big issues about our education system and institutions.

 

Also, the 90s and 2000s are the 1st major female graduates of India who are actually looking to work, and thus the workforce supply has increased. This is one major difference now. Also think traditionally, our unemployment stats didn't even take into account of the females.

Well it should be a concern for anyone who has seen the amount the current government has invested in infrastructural upgrades and thereby accumulated increasing amounts of debt.   The infrastructural multiplier effect is largely devoid of any data to prove its effect. 

 

The only ones who benefit are foreign capital and large domestic businesses that get these contracts and doesnt boost the economy.  This is especially true for 3rd world countries .

 

Any 3rd world country that has spent heavily on infrastructure has simply accumulated debt unless they have massively increased exports and created jobs.  The current government has not done that.  

 

In fact, they are still planning massive upgrades to infrastructure and planning to borrow a lot more. 

 

If it's clear that we can't create more jobs and we continue to look for this massive upgrade in infra - we are simply pleasing foreign lending institutions and infrastructure companies - no one else  while accumulating debt for future generation to pay it off. 

 

I'd rather they spend on health, agriculture, education and the social

sector 

 

Excellent article by Aunindyo Chakravarty on that. 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/infra-spending-doesnt-have-multiplier-effect-478551

 

Literally, every country that is steeped in debt now unwisely spent massively on infrastructure that did little for them - Turkey, Pakistan, Sri Lanka etc .

 

This spending by the current government is more frightening than even their communal tendencies. 

 

 

Edited June 10, 2023 by Nikhil_cric

[Stan AF]

On 6/4/2023 at 7:37 PM, Nikhil_cric said:

India has to massively increase social sector spending on women's education, healthcare , nutrition etc. Especially Eastern UP, Bihar and Jharkhand where such policies are extremely important going forward. 

 

Jobless growth is a reality and any government(not just BJP) will struggle to create high paying jobs in the future. 

 

Especially with the AI revolution underway , the so called demographic could rapidly turn into a demographic nightmare. 

 

Programmes like Make in India have not achieved anything vis a vis the hype in 2014. Demonetisation failed in its stated aim of recapturing black money as noted by the RBI itself. 

 

 

Only useful post in this thread of ching chaks

[bharathh]

1 hour ago, Nikhil_cric said:

Well it should be a concern for anyone who has seen the amount the current government has invested in infrastructural upgrades and thereby accumulated increasing amounts of debt.   The infrastructural multiplier effect is largely devoid of any data to prove its effect. 

 

The only ones who benefit are foreign capital and large domestic businesses that get these contracts and doesnt boost the economy.  This is especially true for 3rd world countries .

 

Any 3rd world country that has spent heavily on infrastructure has simply accumulated debt unless they have massively increased exports and created jobs.  The current government has not done that.  

 

In fact, they are still planning massive upgrades to infrastructure and planning to borrow a lot more. 

 

If it's clear that we can't create more jobs and we continue to look for this massive upgrade in infra - we are simply pleasing foreign lending institutions and infrastructure companies - no one else  while accumulating debt for future generation to pay it off. 

 

I'd rather they spend on health, agriculture, education and the social

sector 

 

Excellent article by Aunindyo Chakravarty on that. 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/infra-spending-doesnt-have-multiplier-effect-478551

 

Literally, every country that is steeped in debt now unwisely spent massively on infrastructure that did little for them - Turkey, Pakistan, Sri Lanka etc .

 

This spending by the current government is more frightening than even their communal tendencies. 

 

 

 

Very silly article based on very stupid assumptions and false data.

 

I agree that there should be more spending on hospitals and schools - but how would people get to their jobs, or go to schools or hospitals without infrastructure like roads, metros or rails? Given the size of our cities - what does the poster/author expect people to do - fly?

 

#1

The article itself mentions that the World Bank has said that there is a 7x multiplier in terms of economic benefit for money spent on infra and that it is a long term benefit that takes time to realize. Yet, both the poster and author say there is no benefit to spending on infra. I'm sure World Bank creates data out of thin air.

 

#2

The author states that the country's GDP hasn't grown because of infra spending. He picks the entire time period including Covid. GDP growth is based on other factors such as consumer spending, investor investment etc. that also affect GDP growth. Just because one aspect of a variable increases does not mean everything else stays constant. Also, perhaps this senior economist is unaware that GDP growth in India is the largest in the G20 countries and has been in the top 3 for the past 10 years consistently. GDP growth for larger economies will get lower and more difficult to maintain as the GDP gets larger. While other large economies have struggled to maintain a positive GDP, India's growth has seen us zoom up from 10th position to #5 despite Covid. 

 

Infa spending is one key drivers of growth in India. Despite becoming the 5th largest we are still woefully behind in terms of infra needed to move people and goods allowing services to be made quickly. 

 

#3

The author states that he has no data to show for # of workers in infra projects, but using consutruction jobs - he claims that there were no jobs created. Construction jobs were primarily cash jobs that got affected due to demonetization and then Covid. To compare them to govt projects that did not deal in cash is stupidity. It is like me comparing the decline for the need for electronic engineers who worked on radios and other electronic components to IT jobs. How on earth can he make such a spurious assumption in the first place? 

 

#4 

He claims that only big businesses benefit from Infrastructure spends. Really? What is the basis of this statement? He starts by saying that there are no studies to prove what the World Bank says but makes a ridiculous statement with 0 proof. I'm guessing big businesses in India operate in a vacuum. They employ noone and there is no direct/indirect benefit to small businesses or job creation due to this. 

 

A trip on one of the highways is enough to see the impact these highways have on the local populations. The number of shops, restaurants, and other services that have popped up along these are probably not instances of benefits to help local populations and businesses. The jobs created in transportation (bus services, taxis, etc.), increased local tourism leading to increased spending in rural areas through which these highways pass through that apparently don't matter. Logistics and warehousing businesses such as Delhivery that have exploded due to improved infra leading to tens of thousands of jobs are probably only benefitting big businesses. Small manufacturers who can now send their products from their small towns/villages to any part of India due to these improved logistics are all big businesses. 

 

There is a guy from Delhi - who due to the improved infra for airports across towns, brings fresh paneer from Delhi to many major cities to India within a couple of hours of production in Delhi to Bangalore, Chennai, Kochi etc. I guess all these folks are the big businesses the author talks about. 

 

The improvement of the power grid to have 1. electrified all of India for the first time in its history and 2. increased the power production to almost 3x from what it was in 2014 is all a waste of money. After all schools and hospitals can run on the hot air produced by ppl like the poster and the so-called economist. An amazing part of this growth in electricity production is that we have done this primarily with renewable sources of energy, unlike the first world that is still addicted to fossil fuels. 

 

I can't believe with all the data that is out there today and with all the tools available to substantiate stupid claims, we still have apparently educated people who don't have a clue.

 

Edited June 10, 2023 by bharathh

[Nikhil_cric]

1 hour ago, bharathh said:

 

Very silly article based on very stupid assumptions and false data.

 

I agree that there should be more spending on hospitals and schools - but how would people get to their jobs, or go to schools or hospitals without infrastructure like roads, metros or rails? Given the size of our cities - what does the poster/author expect people to do - fly?

 

#1

The article itself mentions that the World Bank has said that there is a 7x multiplier in terms of economic benefit for money spent on infra and that it is a long term benefit that takes time to realize. Yet, both the poster and author say there is no benefit to spending on infra. I'm sure World Bank creates data out of thin air.

 

#2

The author states that the country's GDP hasn't grown because of infra spending. He picks the entire time period including Covid. GDP growth is based on other factors such as consumer spending, investor investment etc. that also affect GDP growth. Just because one aspect of a variable increases does not mean everything else stays constant. Also, perhaps this senior economist is unaware that GDP growth in India is the largest in the G20 countries and has been in the top 3 for the past 10 years consistently. GDP growth for larger economies will get lower and more difficult to maintain as the GDP gets larger. While other large economies have struggled to maintain a positive GDP, India's growth has seen us zoom up from 10th position to #5 despite Covid. 

 

Infa spending is one key drivers of growth in India. Despite becoming the 5th largest we are still woefully behind in terms of infra needed to move people and goods allowing services to be made quickly. 

 

#3

The author states that he has no data to show for # of workers in infra projects, but using consutruction jobs - he claims that there were no jobs created. Construction jobs were primarily cash jobs that got affected due to demonetization and then Covid. To compare them to govt projects that did not deal in cash is stupidity. It is like me comparing the decline for the need for electronic engineers who worked on radios and other electronic components to IT jobs. How on earth can he make such a spurious assumption in the first place? 

 

#4 

He claims that only big businesses benefit from Infrastructure spends. Really? What is the basis of this statement? He starts by saying that there are no studies to prove what the World Bank says but makes a ridiculous statement with 0 proof. I'm guessing big businesses in India operate in a vacuum. They employ noone and there is no direct/indirect benefit to small businesses or job creation due to this. 

 

A trip on one of the highways is enough to see the impact these highways have on the local populations. The number of shops, restaurants, and other services that have popped up along these are probably not instances of benefits to help local populations and businesses. The jobs created in transportation (bus services, taxis, etc.), increased local tourism leading to increased spending in rural areas through which these highways pass through that apparently don't matter. Logistics and warehousing businesses such as Delhivery that have exploded due to improved infra leading to tens of thousands of jobs are probably only benefitting big businesses. Small manufacturers who can now send their products from their small towns/villages to any part of India due to these improved logistics are all big businesses. 

 

There is a guy from Delhi - who due to the improved infra for airports across towns, brings fresh paneer from Delhi to many major cities to India within a couple of hours of production in Delhi to Bangalore, Chennai, Kochi etc. I guess all these folks are the big businesses the author talks about. 

 

The improvement of the power grid to have 1. electrified all of India for the first time in its history and 2. increased the power production to almost 3x from what it was in 2014 is all a waste of money. After all schools and hospitals can run on the hot air produced by ppl like the poster and the so-called economist. An amazing part of this growth in electricity production is that we have done this primarily with renewable sources of energy, unlike the first world that is still addicted to fossil fuels. 

 

I can't believe with all the data that is out there today and with all the tools available to substantiate stupid claims, we still have apparently educated people who don't have a clue.

 

India plans to invest 1.5 trillion dollars in upgrading infrastructure in the hope it will boost our manufacturing sector. This may not happen for a variety of reasons

 

1. When China did it, they provided cheap, high volume, low skilled labour which led to massive investment in the country and their exports went through the roof.  

2. This is not likely to happen again because firstly, there is not as much demand for such labour and certainly not in such volumes and secondly, I doubt there is ever going to be that kind of investment in one single country alone. India may get a slice of the piece but it will be distributed more among similar countries that offer similarly cheap labour. It is unlikely that the West will put all thheir eggs in the same basket ever again.

 

Unemployment rate was at its highest at 6.1 % and McKinsey predicted in 2019 that 12 million women alone would lose their jobs by 2030 and that was before the Chat GPT revolution started.  

 

The multiplier effect, even, it does take effect is not going to help in real terms because we are not going to add jobs. Also, it is surprising that when you have access to data , that it is not immediately obvious that IMF/World Bank and their forecasts for LDC' have rarely proven accurate.

 

How many LDC's have developed following World Bank and IMF's structural adjustment programmes?  On the other hand, there are plenty of examples of nations that have fallen into debt traps with their predatory lending and forecasts. 

 

This is the beginninigs of a debt trap for India if we spend on infrastructure at that level in the "hopes" of attracting foreign capital.

 

Again, this is just my opinion based on what Ive seen and read. Let's see.

[coffee_rules]

4 hours ago, Nikhil_cric said:

India plans to invest 1.5 trillion dollars in upgrading infrastructure in the hope it will boost our manufacturing sector. This may not happen for a variety of reasons

 

1. When China did it, they provided cheap, high volume, low skilled labour which led to massive investment in the country and their exports went through the roof.  

2. This is not likely to happen again because firstly, there is not as much demand for such labour and certainly not in such volumes and secondly, I doubt there is ever going to be that kind of investment in one single country alone. India may get a slice of the piece but it will be distributed more among similar countries that offer similarly cheap labour. It is unlikely that the West will put all thheir eggs in the same basket ever again.

 

Unemployment rate was at its highest at 6.1 % and McKinsey predicted in 2019 that 12 million women alone would lose their jobs by 2030 and that was before the Chat GPT revolution started.  

 

The multiplier effect, even, it does take effect is not going to help in real terms because we are not going to add jobs. Also, it is surprising that when you have access to data , that it is not immediately obvious that IMF/World Bank and their forecasts for LDC' have rarely proven accurate.

 

How many LDC's have developed following World Bank and IMF's structural adjustment programmes?  On the other hand, there are plenty of examples of nations that have fallen into debt traps with their predatory lending and forecasts. 

 

This is the beginninigs of a debt trap for India if we spend on infrastructure at that level in the "hopes" of attracting foreign capital.

 

Again, this is just my opinion based on what Ive seen and read. Let's see.

Every country is investing in debt. USA has massive amounts and still can’t see one opinion on debt ceiling across multiple economists. It is China’s age from 1990 onwards, India is barely wetting its feet in  he global space and hawks are out there targeting its infra investment, debt and what not. Govt spends most on Defence, paying salaries to massive public and central/state govt undertakings , govt employees, welfare and all freebies like toilets, pakka ghar, bijali, paani. But for  infra investment there is no capital and private companies have to be dependent on for capital. Even major countries don’t invest public money on infra. 
 

One good thing about this govt is its focus on inflation. The rate at which inflation rate went up during UPA , esp UPA-II, India had to recover from. 
 

It went down from 12% in 2010  to 2% in 2020, but due to Covid, like in most countries, it is on the rise. But compared to other third and second world countries, we are way better off. 

Edited June 10, 2023 by coffee_rules

[Nikhil_cric]

5 hours ago, coffee_rules said:

Every country is investing in debt. USA has massive amounts and still can’t see one opinion on debt ceiling across multiple economists. It is China’s age from 1990 onwards, India is barely wetting its feet in  he global space and hawks are out there targeting its infra investment, debt and what not. Govt spends most on Defence, paying salaries to massive public and central/state govt undertakings , govt employees, welfare and all freebies like toilets, pakka ghar, bijali, paani. But for  infra investment there is no capital and private companies have to be dependent on for capital. Even major countries don’t invest public money on infra. 
 

One good thing about this govt is its focus on inflation. The rate at which inflation rate went up during UPA , esp UPA-II, India had to recover from. 
 

It went down from 12% in 2010  to 2% in 2020, but due to Covid, like in most countries, it is on the rise. But compared to other third and second world countries, we are way better off. 

1.5 trillion dollars will definitely necessitate going to multilateral institutions and that's going to be devastating for a poor country like India. 

 

They drain resources . That's all they do

 

https://youtu.be/DnHOxZgvdWM

 

 

[coffee_rules]

6 hours ago, Nikhil_cric said:

1.5 trillion dollars will definitely necessitate going to multilateral institutions and that's going to be devastating for a poor country like India. 

 

They drain resources . That's all they do

 

https://youtu.be/DnHOxZgvdWM

 

 

Can read, but can’t watch someone talk unless I know them. Will watch later

[bharathh]

16 hours ago, Nikhil_cric said:

India plans to invest 1.5 trillion dollars in upgrading infrastructure in the hope it will boost our manufacturing sector. This may not happen for a variety of reasons

 

1. When China did it, they provided cheap, high volume, low skilled labour which led to massive investment in the country and their exports went through the roof.  

2. This is not likely to happen again because firstly, there is not as much demand for such labour and certainly not in such volumes and secondly, I doubt there is ever going to be that kind of investment in one single country alone. India may get a slice of the piece but it will be distributed more among similar countries that offer similarly cheap labour. It is unlikely that the West will put all thheir eggs in the same basket ever again.

 

Unemployment rate was at its highest at 6.1 % and McKinsey predicted in 2019 that 12 million women alone would lose their jobs by 2030 and that was before the Chat GPT revolution started.  

 

The multiplier effect, even, it does take effect is not going to help in real terms because we are not going to add jobs. Also, it is surprising that when you have access to data , that it is not immediately obvious that IMF/World Bank and their forecasts for LDC' have rarely proven accurate.

 

How many LDC's have developed following World Bank and IMF's structural adjustment programmes?  On the other hand, there are plenty of examples of nations that have fallen into debt traps with their predatory lending and forecasts. 

 

This is the beginninigs of a debt trap for India if we spend on infrastructure at that level in the "hopes" of attracting foreign capital.

 

Again, this is just my opinion based on what Ive seen and read. Let's see.

 

Labour arbitrage is always going to play a factor in international economics. Why do you think countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh have benefitted from this? Regardless, industrialization of a country is going to require infrastructure. The money is well spent. China's economic growth was a miracle - does not mean that other countries cannot see similar growth. In today's world India can provide a certain amount of consumption on its own in additional to boosting exports. We have had record exports over the past few years compared to what we had earlier. All this is due to the investments made so far. 

 

We need more entrepreneurs in India. The govt investing in Infra and making things easier for businesses to operate gives people the confidence to start businesses on their own. We are getting a lot of FDI as there is confidence in the business culture here. These create jobs - not the govt creating more bureaucracy. This only comes with spending on things like Infra. 

 

Again pls check out this video for the confidence people have in India. The kind of investments the govt is making in initiatives like Invest India, Startup India, Digital public goods like ONDC etc. are game changing and heralding India towards the future rapidly. These will help add jobs and high value jobs as well. This will have an effect on all strata of society.

 

Digitization of the economy and the dismantling of the shadow economy will have huge long term benefits for the country. The debt we are incurring to build the necessary infra will reap benefits in the next 10 years. You can grow only with investment - not by sitting with your thumb in your mouth doing nothing. 

 

 

 

 

[bharathh]

7 hours ago, Nikhil_cric said:

1.5 trillion dollars will definitely necessitate going to multilateral institutions and that's going to be devastating for a poor country like India. 

 

They drain resources . That's all they do

 

https://youtu.be/DnHOxZgvdWM

 

 

 

We are not growing and investing based only on IMF loans. In fact if you see all the loans taken in the last 10 years by the govt across different areas - most of it is non-infra related. A lot of the money is coming from FDI and Indian investments, bonds, or other means. So not sure what you mean by debt trap.

 

Year	Organization	Loan Type	Loan Purpose	Loan Amount (approx.)
2015	IMF	Stand-By Arrangement	Economic Reform Support	$2.1 billion
2016	World Bank	Development Policy Loan	Infrastructure Development	$1 billion
2017	ADB	Policy-Based Loan	Energy Sector Reform	$500 million
2018	IMF	Extended Fund Facility	Fiscal Consolidation and Reforms	$2 billion
2019	World Bank	Investment Project Financing	Clean Energy Development	$200 million
2020	ADB	Sector Development Program Loan	Water Supply and Sanitation	$1.5 billion
2021	IMF	Rapid Financing Instrument	COVID-19 Response	$1.4 billion

 

 

[bharathh]

A country can only grow by earning more revenue through exports, and taxing businesses and their citizens. This happens through growth in spending in infra, education, tourism, etc. 

 

By the way - debt is not a bad thing. Until banks in India started giving out loans for housing, education etc. very few could own a house, etc. Hardly anyone buys a house paying their own money nowadays. It's the same for a govt. 

 

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by bharathh

[bharathh]

1 hour ago, Under_Score said:

Praise for Modi's achievements should also be enjoyed in visuals that show the truth......not just some BS posts by disciple BJP supporters  

 

 

 

 

 

Either rebut the discussion with facts or buzz off. Stop trolling. Mods can we pls remove all posts made just to troll pls? 

[Stan AF]

Zero ICC trophies so far

[Lone Wolf]

3 hours ago, Stan AF said:

Zero ICC trophies so far

Panouti all around...  There is no light at the end of tunnel. 

Rising Communal tension....  Country is deprived of happiness for a while. 

When was the last time we saw people celebrating together? 

Messi & Argentina winning World Cup was the only instance people took to streets lol. 

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by Lone Wolf

[Nikhil_cric]

On 6/11/2023 at 8:13 AM, bharathh said:

 

Labour arbitrage is always going to play a factor in international economics. Why do you think countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh have benefitted from this? Regardless, industrialization of a country is going to require infrastructure. The money is well spent. China's economic growth was a miracle - does not mean that other countries cannot see similar growth. In today's world India can provide a certain amount of consumption on its own in additional to boosting exports. We have had record exports over the past few years compared to what we had earlier. All this is due to the investments made so far. 

 

We need more entrepreneurs in India. The govt investing in Infra and making things easier for businesses to operate gives people the confidence to start businesses on their own. We are getting a lot of FDI as there is confidence in the business culture here. These create jobs - not the govt creating more bureaucracy. This only comes with spending on things like Infra. 

 

Again pls check out this video for the confidence people have in India. The kind of investments the govt is making in initiatives like Invest India, Startup India, Digital public goods like ONDC etc. are game changing and heralding India towards the future rapidly. These will help add jobs and high value jobs as well. This will have an effect on all strata of society.

 

Digitization of the economy and the dismantling of the shadow economy will have huge long term benefits for the country. The debt we are incurring to build the necessary infra will reap benefits in the next 10 years. You can grow only with investment - not by sitting with your thumb in your mouth doing nothing. 

 

 

 

 

It is not "always" going to be a factor. Not to the level it is now . The only reason it is now is because the US has the ability to print an endless supply of dollars and hence, they can afford to be a net importer . These are usually US companies producing products at a much cheaper cost in the Third World and so the actual value of goods and services is far higher than their import bill suggests. 

 

There is no evidence to suggest that India is ever going to have a trade surplus  .  Large loans from IBRD and Asian Development Bank etc. (If we are going to spend 1.5 trillion on so called infrastructure)   will obviously be in dollars. 

 

 

That's a huge amount and we will need massive trade surpluses to just service the debt.  Mind you, even if we achieve these trade surpluses, it won't actually benefit our economy in meaningful ways because we will simply have to keep paying off the loans + interest  .

 

China with massive trade surpluses over a long period is not a model we have been able to follow .

 

Don't go by the US debt ceiling raise either. When you are the world's reserve currency and you can keep printing endlessly,  you can do whatever you want as there will always be an international demand for the dollar. 

 

The monetary reset( led by BRICs + Saudi) cannot come fast enough. 

Edited June 12, 2023 by Nikhil_cric

[coffee_rules]

6 hours ago, Nikhil_cric said:

It is not "always" going to be a factor. Not to the level it is now . The only reason it is now is because the US has the ability to print an endless supply of dollars and hence, they can afford to be a net importer . These are usually US companies producing products at a much cheaper cost in the Third World and so the actual value of goods and services is far higher than their import bill suggests. 

 

There is no evidence to suggest that India is ever going to have a trade surplus  .  Large loans from IBRD and Asian Development Bank etc. (If we are going to spend 1.5 trillion on so called infrastructure)   will obviously be in dollars. 

 

 

That's a huge amount and we will need massive trade surpluses to just service the debt.  Mind you, even if we achieve these trade surpluses, it won't actually benefit our economy in meaningful ways because we will simply have to keep paying off the loans + interest  .

 

China with massive trade surpluses over a long period is not a model we have been able to follow .

 

Don't go by the US debt ceiling raise either. When you are the world's reserve currency and you can keep printing endlessly,  you can do whatever you want as there will always be an international demand for the dollar. 

 

The monetary reset( led by BRICs + Saudi) cannot come fast enough. 

So, what is your solution? For 1.4 billion people, to generate wealth for its people , where any amount of increased economic activity (GDP) drains out with increasing population and the per-capita goes down drastically. Hence, we see posts like, even BD is better than India under current regime!