Will American hegemony ever end ?

[ravishingravi]

I know it's popular these days to talk about how US is on its way down and younger generation completely woke and distracted and illegal immigrants given free pass etc etc. There is also kind of comparison with Roman empire which lasted for much greater period of time at its peak. 

 

But now my views have changed. With the imminent drop in population, demography will be the key. And the young esp talented will go where there is innovation and money. Where would that be ? 

 

Then we have the question of de globalization. Also happening rapidly. Which country and currency stands to gain if world starts de linking. 

 

Then we have folks talking about multi polar world. Chinese population could half at worst in next could of decades. Their economy is sinking now and they are in for long stagnated décline. So where us the other pole ? 

 

US are and will always be the most dominant power. 3D printing, nuclear fusion, hydrogen, AI, genetics, STEM will all be happening in the US. 

[Muloghonto]

4 minutes ago, ravishingravi said:

I know it's popular these days to talk about how US is on its way down and younger generation completely woke and distracted and illegal immigrants given free pass etc etc. There is also kind of comparison with Roman empire which lasted for much greater period of time at its peak. 

 

But now my views have changed. With the imminent drop in population, demography will be the key. And the young esp talented will go where there is innovation and money. Where would that be ? 

 

Then we have the question of de globalization. Also happening rapidly. Which country and currency stands to gain if world starts de linking. 

 

Then we have folks talking about multi polar world. Chinese population could half at worst in next could of decades. Their economy is sinking now and they are in for long stagnated décline. So where us the other pole ? 

 

US are and will always be the most dominant power. 3D printing, nuclear fusion, hydrogen, AI, genetics, STEM will all be happening in the US. 

 

The simple answer to this complicated scenario is : US will fall. But it won't become a 'former Roman Empire', where its gonna turn to a total shitshow anarchy land and people will look back and wonder what the hell happened from their great grandparent's time ( time of the fall ala Roman empire + 3 generations later). It will become more like a post Kannauj period India : stagnating & falling behind by the virtue of stagnation, getting poorer but not at sudden cataclysmic rate. 

 

Why will it become this way ? Because USD is on its way out, period ( as global reserve currency+currency for transaction). The latter is happening and nothing will stop it, it will become new reality in 10 years.The former is starting to happen, but will take longer ( due to a significant problem with immediately replacing USD as reserve currency). 

The minute that happens, US will experience a 'mother of great depressions', that will last 20-30 years, due to the whole 'US will now have to either pay its debt or become mega-greece' phenomena that will follow as soon as USD is no longer global reserve & dominant transaction currency and thus US will lose its unique position in the world to pass on its debt to the whole world. 

But following this 20-30 year period of recession & stagnation, US will ultimately emerge as one of the main (and maybe even the 2nd best or best still) poles in the world, as US has strong core metrics in population, resources, technology & one of the most favourable positions in geopolitics, inherent to its geography. 

 

Given that USA has nukes, a toweringly huge technologically advanced army & decent levels of nationalism ( one of the highest in the west, which is good for the US), it will prevent its fate going the way of Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth & get dismembered by the other poles. 

 

[randomGuy]

USA has following things going for it

1. English language

2. Fascination of the world with White people. Yes, a lot of how people think sub consciously is race based.

3. Vast size and resources.

 

Demographics is a world wide issue , USA deals with it through immigration. It attracts immigrants due to above 3 factors...let us say if USA becomes only a 30% (which will not happen in 100 years) white country, due to non white immigration and fall of white birth rate, that stops fascination of high value immigrants to the US, like South Africa is not a worldwide immigration destination...

 

So I want to suggest that till usa remains white majority, the immigrant infatuation will continue, it will remain a superpower.

[Muloghonto]

3 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

USA has following things going for it

1. English language

2. Fascination of the world with White people. Yes, a lot of how people think sub consciously is race based.

3. Vast size and resources.

 

Demographics is a world wide issue , USA deals with it through immigration. It attracts immigrants due to above 3 factors...let us say if USA becomes only a 30% (which will not happen in 100 years) white country, due to non white immigration and fall of white birth rate, that stops fascination of high value immigrants to the US, like South Africa is not a worldwide immigration destination...

 

So I want to suggest that till usa remains white majority, the immigrant infatuation will continue, it will remain a superpower.

 

immigrant infatuation doesn't have much to do with white majority. That is a common misunderstanding and classic case of ' correlation isnt causation'.  USA attracts immigrants for a far bigger reason than the above 3 ( or at least, #2 & 3) : its the easiest place in the world to persue a dream of becoming rich and stay rich. 

 

[gattaca]

Innovation is still driven by US in many sectors. As long it is their US will survive regardless of recessions.  US is still way ahead in AI chatgpt. China has no chatgpt innovation at all. The companies are what are driving it. Chinese companies are controlled by CCP and get instructions on what to innovate not free thinking . Space travel is pioneered by US companies again  blueorigin and spacex. At least AI and space travel are two innovate fields in next few years.

Edited October 4, 2023 by gattaca

[Muloghonto]

1 hour ago, gattaca said:

Innovation is still driven by US in many sectors. As long it is their US will survive regardless of recessions.  US is still way ahead in AI chatgpt. China has no chatgpt innovation at all. The companies are what are driving it. Chinese companies are controlled by CCP and get instructions on what to innovate freely. Space travel is pioneered by US companies again  blueorigin and spacex. At least AI and space travel are too innovate fields in next few years.

yes, and all that works because of value of dollar. 

Which is artificially floated, due to global reserve & trade currency status. That is why US can just go '* debt, keep raising debt ceiling and nothing changes'. Companies cannot thrive in a country thats undergoing massive debt crisis. US doesn't have to face that- yet. It will, once the dollar hegemony is over and thats when US innovation and all will slow down as well. 

 

[ravishingravi]

3 hours ago, Muloghonto said:

 

The simple answer to this complicated scenario is : US will fall. But it won't become a 'former Roman Empire', where its gonna turn to a total shitshow anarchy land and people will look back and wonder what the hell happened from their great grandparent's time ( time of the fall ala Roman empire + 3 generations later). It will become more like a post Kannauj period India : stagnating & falling behind by the virtue of stagnation, getting poorer but not at sudden cataclysmic rate. 

 

Why will it become this way ? Because USD is on its way out, period ( as global reserve currency+currency for transaction). The latter is happening and nothing will stop it, it will become new reality in 10 years.The former is starting to happen, but will take longer ( due to a significant problem with immediately replacing USD as reserve currency). 

The minute that happens, US will experience a 'mother of great depressions', that will last 20-30 years, due to the whole 'US will now have to either pay its debt or become mega-greece' phenomena that will follow as soon as USD is no longer global reserve & dominant transaction currency and thus US will lose its unique position in the world to pass on its debt to the whole world. 

But following this 20-30 year period of recession & stagnation, US will ultimately emerge as one of the main (and maybe even the 2nd best or best still) poles in the world, as US has strong core metrics in population, resources, technology & one of the most favourable positions in geopolitics, inherent to its geography. 

 

Given that USA has nukes, a toweringly huge technologically advanced army & decent levels of nationalism ( one of the highest in the west, which is good for the US), it will prevent its fate going the way of Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth & get dismembered by the other poles. 

 

 

De dollarization is the biggest sham that I have known. There is literally zero evidence and now with China tanking zero possibility. In the neo liberal post world war economics, dollar base cannot and will not change. Lot of missing factors :-

 

1) A large economy with capacity to dictate use of it's currency while also earning trust of economic system. Little to know interference from fed reserve. Plus stability. 

 

2) Euro was supposed to be an alternative with much going for it. In last 15 years it's share has shrunk. 

 

3) there is no coherent conglomerate of country even capable of agreeing on an alternative. 

 

 

 

[Muloghonto]

20 minutes ago, ravishingravi said:

 

De dollarization is the biggest sham that I have known. There is literally zero evidence and now with China tanking zero possibility. In the neo liberal post world war economics, dollar base cannot and will not change. Lot of missing factors :-

 

1) A large economy with capacity to dictate use of it's currency while also earning trust of economic system. Little to know interference from fed reserve. Plus stability. 

 

2) Euro was supposed to be an alternative with much going for it. In last 15 years it's share has shrunk. 

 

3) there is no coherent conglomerate of country even capable of agreeing on an alternative. 

 

 

 

 

1. De-dollarisation is happening, whether you like it or not. It isnt a scam, its a burning desire for dozens of countries, who are working overtime to make it happen. 

2. Obviously, a ready-made candidate to replace the USD isnt here, else it'd have happened already. The main assumption of yankees is a 1 for 1 substitution, like how its happened in the past ( when it went from Guilders to GBP to USD but it won't be that way, it will be a basket of currencies.

 

But de-dollarisation will happen in the next 10-20 years. The US has set the wheels in motion and its irrevocable at this point. 

 

[sandeep]

4 hours ago, ravishingravi said:

I know it's popular these days to talk about how US is on its way down and younger generation completely woke and distracted and illegal immigrants given free pass etc etc. There is also kind of comparison with Roman empire which lasted for much greater period of time at its peak. 

 

But now my views have changed. With the imminent drop in population, demography will be the key. And the young esp talented will go where there is innovation and money. Where would that be ? 

 

Then we have the question of de globalization. Also happening rapidly. Which country and currency stands to gain if world starts de linking. 

 

Then we have folks talking about multi polar world. Chinese population could half at worst in next could of decades. Their economy is sinking now and they are in for long stagnated décline. So where us the other pole ? 

 

US are and will always be the most dominant power. 3D printing, nuclear fusion, hydrogen, AI, genetics, STEM will all be happening in the US. 

NO.

 

It is the only nation state with a virtual continent within its borders.  An impregnable island nation with 2 oceans to guard its frontiers - thanks to genocide and war, it has very fertile land, adequate water supply, energy independence, and an economic hegemony on the planet where it can keep printing money for at least the next decade or 2 if not longer. 

 

Its hard to screw these advantages up to the point where someone else takes a lead.  We have to wait for the space age for that, where a competing power either makes a sudden technological breakthrough that enables it to overcome these natural disadvantages, or is able to leverage space/moon/mars/asteroids into do so.

[sandeep]

22 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

 

1. De-dollarisation is happening, whether you like it or not. It isnt a scam, its a burning desire for dozens of countries, who are working overtime to make it happen. 

2. Obviously, a ready-made candidate to replace the USD isnt here, else it'd have happened already. The main assumption of yankees is a 1 for 1 substitution, like how its happened in the past ( when it went from Guilders to GBP to USD but it won't be that way, it will be a basket of currencies.

 

But de-dollarisation will happen in the next 10-20 years. The US has set the wheels in motion and its irrevocable at this point. 

 

Even in that extreme case - with the fuzzy math of ever shifting "10-20" years from now, the US has too many geographical advantages to cede its position.  And no other competitor comes close.

[randomGuy]

6 hours ago, Muloghonto said:

 

immigrant infatuation doesn't have much to do with white majority. That is a common misunderstanding and classic case of ' correlation isnt causation'.  USA attracts immigrants for a far bigger reason than the above 3 ( or at least, #2 & 3) : its the easiest place in the world to persue a dream of becoming rich and stay rich. 

 

Let me try to make you visualise, If instead of majority white English speaking folks roaming about the streets of USA, there were Bengali speaking Muloghonto (South Asian) faces, Mandarin speaking Chinese faces, African speaking black faces or arabic speaking burqa clad faces , the  US would not be a immigration magnet and would lose global superpower status and economic status pretty fast.

Edited October 5, 2023 by randomGuy

[Muloghonto]

20 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

Let me try to make you visualise, If instead of majority white English speaking folks roaming about the streets of USA, there were Bengali speaking Muloghonto (South Asian) faces, Mandarin speaking Chinese faces, African speaking black faces or arabic speaking burqa clad faces , the  US would not be a immigration magnet and would lose global superpower status and economic status pretty fast.

Not true at all. Already most big cities look more muloghonto than clint eastwood across north america. Its not slowing down immigration to Canada for eg. Or Australia.

3 hours ago, sandeep said:

Even in that extreme case - with the fuzzy math of ever shifting "10-20" years from now, the US has too many geographical advantages to cede its position.  And no other competitor comes close.

It isnt an extreme case, nor is it ever-shifting 10-20 years from now stuff - it became a matter of 'must do' for many many nations since start of Ukraine war and as a result, Ukraine war to now has seen a far bigger & concrete push for dedollarisation than the 30 years prior to it. 

US's geographical advantages are significant, but not unassailable and US has a significant disadvantage to India & China - manpower, which is ultimately, the biggest asset of an industrial/post industrial nation. Russia can also be a near peer power for the US long term, especially if US loses anglosphere's advantage due to changing demographics.

US won't cede its position, it will be forced to concede it, as dollar hegemony will no longer be seen as fait accompli by other nations. 

[Mariyam]

The USA spent the better part of two decades from 2001- ~2021, engaged in vague wars in the Middle East and Central Asia where they had no clear cut objectives.

A lot of resources were lost in that period. The country is not better off as a result. Neither are they safer. 

The standing of the US has taken a hit and other nations are no longer as pliant to the American will as they were before. Case in point, nations of Latin America.

Recently, the US paid what was no short of a ransom to the Iranian government for the release of a few prisoners. 

In these 2 decades, China and India have done a lot of catching up, by simply focusing on bettering the lot of their own people. Right from the USA's playbook in the 19th century.

 

While the US may still continue to be a military and economic superpower, it just can't influence the world it used to even 20-30 years ago. The decline of US hegemony may be slow, but we are living through it.

[randomGuy]

3 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

Not true at all. Already most big cities look more muloghonto than clint eastwood across north america. Its not slowing down immigration to Canada for eg. Or Australia.

 

Satya Nadellas and Sundar Pichais of the future as well as your daily IT workers would much rather work in Bangalore if that were increasingly the case... remember it is the English speaking White population that drives quality (who brings skills and/or money) immigrants to the US...

[randomGuy]

10 minutes ago, Mariyam said:

The USA spent the better part of two decades from 2001- ~2021, engaged in vague wars in the Middle East and Central Asia where they had no clear cut objectives.

A lot of resources were lost in that period. The country is not better off as a result. Neither are they safer. 

The standing of the US has taken a hit and other nations are no longer as pliant to the American will as they were before. Case in point, nations of Latin America.

Recently, the US paid what was no short of a ransom to the Iranian government for the release of a few prisoners. 

In these 2 decades, China and India have done a lot of catching up, by simply focusing on bettering the lot of their own people. Right from the USA's playbook in the 19th century.

 

While the US may still continue to be a military and economic superpower, it just can't influence the world it used to even 20-30 years ago. The decline of US hegemony may be slow, but we are living through it.

Agreed. It will be very slow, aligned with slow decline of white population percentage decline. I see USA to be the superpower even in next 50 years.

Edited October 5, 2023 by randomGuy

[bharathh]

The day the US can't keep printing money to solve its financial issues it will collapse almost instantaneously. That day is not far away unfortunately. 

 

That said the US soft power will ensure it will remain relevant for long even if it wanes militarily or economically.

[Muloghonto]

41 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

Satya Nadellas and Sundar Pichais of the future as well as your daily IT workers would much rather work in Bangalore if that were increasingly the case... remember it is the English speaking White population that drives quality (who brings skills and/or money) immigrants to the US...

No. I am a 20+ year immigrant to North America, i am well aware as to what is driving it, what drove it in the past, etc and gora chamree is not it. 

[randomGuy]

24 minutes ago, bharathh said:

The day the US can't keep printing money to solve its financial issues it will collapse almost instantaneously. That day is not far away unfortunately. 

 

That said the US soft power will ensure it will remain relevant for long even if it wanes militarily or economically.

Money printing and negative real interest rates is a necessity to fund government budget deficits.

 

USA will again print money next year is what the charts are telling me as recession looms and unemployment rises.

[bharathh]

1 minute ago, randomGuy said:

Money printing and negative real interest rates is a necessity to fund government budget deficits.

 

USA will again print money next year is what the charts are telling me as recession looms and unemployment rises.

Yes and it can do that as much as they want to atm. That will change once dedollarization hits home. 

[ravishingravi]

7 hours ago, Muloghonto said:

 

1. De-dollarisation is happening, whether you like it or not. It isnt a scam, its a burning desire for dozens of countries, who are working overtime to make it happen. 

2. Obviously, a ready-made candidate to replace the USD isnt here, else it'd have happened already. The main assumption of yankees is a 1 for 1 substitution, like how its happened in the past ( when it went from Guilders to GBP to USD but it won't be that way, it will be a basket of currencies.

 

But de-dollarisation will happen in the next 10-20 years. The US has set the wheels in motion and its irrevocable at this point. 

 

 

If this happens and that's a big if, then it's a big blow to US. No doubt. But on innovation, defence, pharma, AI etc they are head and shoulder above anyone else. If this remains, US will be driving the world.