Jump to content

Luck .


Recommended Posts

On 11/20/2023 at 1:04 AM, Ranvir said:

India were by far the best team in this World Cup but blew it today.

They reminded me of the 1974 Dutch football team who completely dominated the whole tournament with little to no struggle and dishing out sound beatings to powerhouses like Brazil and Argentina but ended up losing the final. The difference is that they lost to the hosts Germany. India had no excuses. The Dutch even started their final with fireworks but were up against it from the last 2/3rds onwards. 


Australia in cricket are like Germany in football.


Germany took down Hungary in 1954, Netherlands in 1974, Argentina in 2014.


Australia have defeated best Ind side in 2023, best Pak side in 1999, best NZ side in 2015, best SL side in 2007.



Link to comment
21 hours ago, Insidious said:

In India, in some venues, toss matter a lot. I was thinking that Australia will win the toss and will elect to bat first but they wisely did the opposite. Mohali, Motera, wankhade, every damn pitch of western side of the country are bowl first wicket. The issue with Motera is pitch remain sluggish in 1st half and became batting beauty in 2nd half. Happened with 2011 WC in Australia.

2011 was the one time we lucked out.


QF in Motera and F in Wankhede chasing suited us.


SF also chasing was easier but Pak were a poor batting side and choked. They were going well at a point before the twin Yuvi wickets.


But cricket being so luck/toss/conditions based take off the sheen of the sport (and I say this even of our wins).


1983 swinging conditions in final helped Indian medium pacers outbowl the WI quartet.

2013 turning track helped Ash/Jaddu defend a low score.


I'm sure a time will come in the future when tosses/conditions etc favor us and we win a tournament but still won't change the fact how luck based cricket is compared to other major sports (which are mostly simultaneous anyway rather than turn based like cricket and even other turn based sports like baseball, archery, javelin etc are not as conditions dependent and the turns are small duration and alternate to mitigate any conditions effect).



Link to comment
12 hours ago, Number said:

No matter how much anyone tries to convince me, you definitely need luck to win these tournaments. Probably we exhausted all our luck in Dhoni's times when things worked out of nowhere like 2013 CT final etc or Misbah scoop etc.

Look at Pat Cummins luck, he was 2 hours of game away from losing ashes but the rain saved him there.

Marnus wasn't even in the world cup squad but someone gets injured and he comes in as a concussion, performs and finds a place in squad and does well in WC final.

Got the most overcast conditions in SC to bowl at SA top order. Got the most sluggish pitch to bowl at India and got the heavy dew when Indian spinners bowled.


One can argue you make your own luck but these little things make so much difference in cricket.

Marnus doing well I won't say luck. Backups are kept for a reason.


But yes, the conditions in the semi and final. Ashes rain. 2021 T20WC with the tosses. Luck has favored Aus.


It favored us in 2011 as well with us chasing in both QF and F. In 1983 with conditions for medium pacers. 07/13 as well.


Cricket is essentially a turn-based conditions-based sport with massive turn duration. The very nature of this sport introduces a huge luck factor.


Simultaneous condition-independent sports are the best - football, hockey, basketball, badminton etc - win on pure skill

Simultaneous conditions based sports at least ensure same conditions for both players - tennis

Turn based sports usually have mild condition dependency but mitigated by alternating turns and short turns - baseball, archery, javelin etc.


The fairest cricketing encounters are prolly day T20s or T20s that start at 7pm.



Link to comment
11 hours ago, neel roy said:

Dhoni was captain in 4 wt20s and just won 1. He lost the other 3. So no even msd did not have all the luck. Windies won 2 finals out of 2 due to some unbelievable clutch performances in final. Same aus. We have to accepy that 

Yes but luck also factors  into "clutch".


Dhoni, Yuvraj, Gambhir were clutch in 2011.

Ashwin, Jaddu in 2013.


But conditions favored them as well.


That's the nature of the sport.

Edited by deathmonger
Link to comment
22 minutes ago, deathmonger said:

Australia in cricket are like Germany in football.


Germany took down Hungary in 1954, Netherlands in 1974, Argentina in 2014.


Australia have defeated best Ind side in 2023, best Pak side in 1999, best NZ side in 2015, best SL side in 2007.



Yeah the Germany comparison is quite good, a team known for their extremely strong mentality and teamwork. 


However a top Brazil and Italian side always had the upper hand over them. 

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Create New...