rkt.india Posted September 28, 2024 Posted September 28, 2024 On 9/25/2024 at 9:31 PM, randomGuy said: New china EVs have 10 lac km or 15 yrs warrenty on battery.... 10 lac km means entire lifetime. My comment was about Tata Nexon EV which is Indian not Chinese.
randomGuy Posted September 28, 2024 Author Posted September 28, 2024 5 minutes ago, rkt.india said: My comment was about Tata Nexon EV which is Indian not Chinese. India is a 3-5 years behind china but future is quite clear and it is EVs.
zen Posted September 28, 2024 Posted September 28, 2024 2 hours ago, randomGuy said: India is a 3-5 years behind china but future is quite clear and it is EVs. In future, even autonomous vehicles could become widespread. However, there is not much point in talking about it with the state of the current generation of vehicles. In 3-5 years, many markets would move to next gen technology. Also for EV to have a more positive impact on the environment, there is a need for an extensive “greener” infrastructure, otherwise the “pollution” gets transferred to the power plants.
randomGuy Posted September 28, 2024 Author Posted September 28, 2024 (edited) 39 minutes ago, zen said: In future, even autonomous vehicles could become widespread. However, there is not much point in talking about it with the state of the current generation of vehicles. In 3-5 years, many markets would move to next gen technology. Also for EV to have a more positive impact on the environment, there is a need for an extensive “greener” infrastructure, otherwise the “pollution” gets transferred to the power plants. Yep do listen to Tony Seba on YouTube... his observations on 'S' curve in technology adoption, makes quite accurate predictions... all the points are covered...in addition future food technologies like precision fermentation. Edited September 28, 2024 by randomGuy
rkt.india Posted September 28, 2024 Posted September 28, 2024 2 hours ago, randomGuy said: India is a 3-5 years behind china but future is quite clear and it is EVs. EVs will be dead in ten years.
coffee_rules Posted September 28, 2024 Posted September 28, 2024 58 minutes ago, rkt.india said: EVs will be dead in ten years. And here I am having purchased a Tesla last year
zen Posted September 28, 2024 Posted September 28, 2024 17 minutes ago, coffee_rules said: And here I am having purchased a Tesla last year My brother drives a Tesla X (he lives in California). He likes it, having switched to it from a gas guzzling Merc GLS. However, I am trying to stay away from EV for as long as I can. coffee_rules 1
Singh bling Posted October 8, 2024 Posted October 8, 2024 Meanwhile in India Central panel's notice to Ola after surge in complaints against EVs: Sources https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/ola-electric-central-consumer-protection-authority-ev-consumer-complaints-2612988-2024-10-07 The face of electric scooter ola is now getting plenty of complaints on social media .
coffee_rules Posted October 8, 2024 Posted October 8, 2024 After watching election coverage all night, I thought China had deployed EVMs all over Haryana in August 2024 G_B_ 1
G_B_ Posted October 13, 2024 Posted October 13, 2024 China is predicted to have 100% ev sales by 2035. Price per kwh battery is expected to be around 60usd. That's a 400 mile range car for 20k usd effectively. If you look at chinese oil production they have clear objective to pump all capacity within the next 15 years to avoid imports. It's clearly a 15 year plan to basically be self sufficient in energy and avoid all imports. It's also the case with something like milk. The plan is to simply not rely on imports beyond 2040.
gattaca Posted October 14, 2024 Posted October 14, 2024 (edited) On 10/13/2024 at 3:26 AM, G_B_ said: China is predicted to have 100% ev sales by 2035. Price per kwh battery is expected to be around 60usd. That's a 400 mile range car for 20k usd effectively. If you look at chinese oil production they have clear objective to pump all capacity within the next 15 years to avoid imports. It's clearly a 15 year plan to basically be self sufficient in energy and avoid all imports. It's also the case with something like milk. The plan is to simply not rely on imports beyond 2040. Only a communist country can do such thing. This might fail drastically like when Mao asked people to kill sparrows. I don’t think 100 percent EV will fly though. Imagine how power hungry the country will be. How much load on power grid will be ? How much time loss there will be for charging the car if you are driving longer distance. What will happen to airlines lol ? Trucks can’t do electric as well. Japanese had some break through SSD batteries which might be game changer but with current tech it is not possible. Edited October 14, 2024 by gattaca
G_B_ Posted October 14, 2024 Posted October 14, 2024 I think they will still have 3 to 4 million oil production per dat for trucks shipping and airlines. Any residual they will import from Russia. They don't want to be imedpeded by the US navy in the Strait of Malacca or even the Indian ocean.
gattaca Posted October 14, 2024 Posted October 14, 2024 (edited) 1 hour ago, G_B_ said: I think they will still have 3 to 4 million oil production per dat for trucks shipping and airlines. Any residual they will import from Russia. They don't want to be imedpeded by the US navy in the Strait of Malacca or even the Indian ocean. lol. But they are not for just for oil right ? It’s about trade too. If US stops Chinese trade their economy will collapse. It is heavily dependent on U.S. and European imports. Oil companies will also charge higher money when they see imports reducing. It’s just economics I have seen this movie play out before. Edited October 14, 2024 by gattaca
crictime Posted March 16 Posted March 16 It is good to see increased count of EV buses used in public transport buses.Every EV bus will reduce the pollution.It is also good to see that people have started shifting to EV cars. In India the EV penetration is gradual, however once the battery costs and charging stations increases, EV transition will gather more pace.Till then every EV vehicle will nake a psoitove difference even at slow pace. Meanwhile it is good to know that recently percentage of ethanol in blended fuel has been increased. randomGuy 1
R!TTER Posted March 17 Posted March 17 12 hours ago, crictime said: Every EV bus will reduce the pollution. By doing what, shifting the pollution to power plants? Looks like the EV fanclub doesn't realize where electricity actually comes from! China's making more coal fired plants than ever & India's doing roughly the same, although renewable push is also there. To go to full EV you can't even imagine the load you'll eventually have on power plants, the vast majority of which are based on coal.
randomGuy Posted March 17 Author Posted March 17 41 minutes ago, R!TTER said: By doing what, shifting the pollution to power plants? Looks like the EV fanclub doesn't realize where electricity actually comes from! China's making more coal fired plants than ever & India's doing roughly the same, although renewable push is also there. To go to full EV you can't even imagine the load you'll eventually have on power plants, the vast majority of which are based on coal. chinas solar, wind installations speed are simply mind-blowing.I am guessing there will be zero coal based plants in china in 5-10 years. If you wanna go slightly deeper, search about 2024 installations of solar,wind vs coal.
R!TTER Posted March 17 Posted March 17 Sure if we're talking about dreams even pigs can fly - China won't replace fossil fuel power plants completely with renewables in our lifetime, it's simply a pipe dream even for them! https://www.npr.org/2023/03/02/1160441919/china-is-building-six-times-more-new-coal-plants-than-other-countries-report-fin https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/13/business/china-coal-plants-highest-level-hnk-intl/index.html
randomGuy Posted March 17 Author Posted March 17 6 minutes ago, R!TTER said: Sure if we're talking about dreams even pigs can fly - China won't replace fossil fuel power plants completely with renewables in our lifetime, it's simply a pipe dream even for them! https://www.npr.org/2023/03/02/1160441919/china-is-building-six-times-more-new-coal-plants-than-other-countries-report-fin https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/13/business/china-coal-plants-highest-level-hnk-intl/index.html Here’s a year-by-year breakdown of coal-fired power capacity commissioned (i.e., completed and brought online) in China up to 2024, based on available data and trends up to March 16, 2025. Note that exact figures can vary slightly depending on reporting sources (e.g., National Energy Administration, Global Energy Monitor, or Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air), and some years’ data reflect estimates where full-year specifics are incomplete. Commissioned capacity refers to plants that became operational, distinct from construction starts or permits. - **2015**: ~55 GW This was a peak year for coal commissioning before stricter environmental policies slowed approvals. China’s coal boom was still in full swing, with significant capacity added to meet industrial demand. - **2016**: ~48 GW A slight decline as the government began emphasizing overcapacity reduction and cleaner energy, though coal remained dominant. - **2017**: ~38 GW Commissioning dropped further due to a clampdown on new approvals (2017-2020 saw reduced permitting), reflecting a shift toward renewables and efficiency upgrades. - **2018**: ~33 GW Continued moderation in coal additions as renewable installations gained momentum, though energy security needs kept coal relevant. - **2019**: ~30 GW A low point in commissioning, aligning with global pressure and domestic policies to curb coal growth, though construction of previously approved plants continued. - **2020**: ~38 GW A rebound occurred as China prioritized economic recovery post-COVID, with coal providing reliable power amid rising demand. Retirements also peaked at 13 GW this year, offsetting some additions. - **2021**: ~33 GW Commissioned capacity stabilized, but construction starts surged (50 GW) due to power shortages, setting the stage for future completions. - **2022**: ~30 GW Despite a record 106 GW of new approvals, commissioning remained moderate as projects take 2-3 years to complete. Construction starts hit 50 GW, indicating a future uptick. - **2023**: ~47.4 GW A significant increase, driven by the 2022 permitting boom and energy security concerns. China accounted for two-thirds of global coal capacity additions this year. - **2024**: ~30.5 GW (partial estimate) Only 30.5 GW was reported commissioned by mid-2024, though the government aimed for 80 GW total. Given the slower first half (8 GW), the full-year figure likely fell short of the target but could range between 40-50 GW based on historical completion rates and late-year surges. ### Trends and Context - **Total Capacity**: By 2024, China’s total coal-fired capacity reached approximately 1,200 GW, reflecting net additions after retirements - - **Data Gaps**: Full 2024 data isn’t finalized as of March 16, 2025, so the 30.5 GW reflects confirmed completions, with potential increases pending year-end reports. From 2015 to 2024, China commissioned roughly 350-400 GW of new coal capacity. The 2024 figure, while lower than the 80 GW target, aligns with a trend where renewables outpace coal in capacity additions (356 GW of wind/solar in 2024), yet coal commissioning persists to meet demand and grid stability needs. For precise 2024 totals, later NEA updates would be required, but this provides a reliable year-wise snapshot based on current knowledge. 1. Refer to the bolded part 10 years of coal capacity commissioned is still equal to 1 year of solar plus wind commissioned in 2024. 2. Cost of solar n wind has dropped significantly below coal power. 3. China does things exceptionally fast. Refer to EV penetration targets. Smashed all estimates there. If 2060 is their 'net zero' target, you can assume looking at data itself, they will get there by 2040 even if you are pessimistic.
R!TTER Posted March 17 Posted March 17 (edited) There's nothing to refer here, you know why thermal/nuclear power plants won't go extinct - it's because renewables cannot provide consistent/reliable power during peak hours. Which is usually during evening to night. That's a matter of fact and China or not this won't go away, then there's also the issue of power gen where solar/wind do not work when there's no sunlight/less wind & of course hydel during summers - which again is peak season for power consumption. Not sure what sources you're talking about but here's from the CNN link - Construction began on 94.5 gigawatts of coal power plant capacity in 2024, more than in any year since 2015, according to a worldwide database of coal plants maintained by Global Energy Monitor. This doesn't include natural gas or any other fossil fuel powered thermal plants, which I'm sure would be plentiful in China. And China just can't wish away reality, so unless there's a major breakthrough wrt fusion the thermal plants are here to stay for the foreseeable future. Edited March 17 by R!TTER
randomGuy Posted March 17 Author Posted March 17 13 minutes ago, R!TTER said: There's nothing to refer here, you know why thermal/nuclear power plants won't go extinct - it's because renewables cannot provide consistent/reliable power during peak hours. Which is usually during evening to night. That's a matter of fact and China or not this won't go away, then there's also the issue of power gen where solar/wind do not work when there's no sunlight/less wind & of course hydel during summers - which again is peak season for power consumption. Not sure what sources you're talking about but here's from the CNN link - Construction began on 94.5 gigawatts of coal power plant capacity in 2024, more than in any year since 2015, according to a worldwide database of coal plants maintained by Global Energy Monitor. This doesn't include natural gas or any other fossil fuel powered thermal plants, which I'm sure would be plentiful in China. And China just can't wish away reality, so unless there's a major breakthrough wrt fusion the thermal plants are here to stay for the foreseeable future. 1.The first bolded part is outdated. Battery storage coupled with solar, wind is the future. 2. The Data which you are sharing is of "construction began in year:" , the one I am sharing is of "commissioned in year". 3. We will find out on the net zero for china. I said 2040 net zero for the pessimists. Like everyone, i would like to think I am a realist. According to me it will happen closer to 2035.
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